Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,573

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    36

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It comes down to this. If you want to ignore Paddack's struggles over the past 4 years and pretend he's the same prospect pitcher he was 2 TJ's and 6 years ago, there's good reason to be optimistic. If you value Paddack's actual results and performance based on the last several years, there isn't a good reason to lock him into the rotation right now.
  2. bean5302
    Can we stop pretending Joe Ryan was developed by the Twins someday? The Twins were interested in Ryan because the team was desperate for starters as Falvey had failed to draft/develop for years and Ryan had just pitched 11 starts with a 3.63 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.40 xFIP for Tampa Bay's AAA club and gone to the Olympics. The front office wasn't interested in Ryan because he was unique. They were interested in Ryan because he was MLB ready and looked serviceable. This front office drafts pitchers who don't project as MLB caliber because of poor velocity, they draft them in later rounds where they're a dime a dozen, then the development staff focuses on adding 5mph to the pitchers fastball velocity hoping the pitcher's arm can handle it. Standard M.O. The team does seem to lean on the philosophy more than other front offices.
  3. bean5302
    I didn't split. I just chose the seasons where he was a starting pitcher for the last 4 years (flip flopped 2022/2023). He's not remotely the same pitcher he was in 2019. The point is the expectation a pitcher who hasn't gotten good results as a starter in years and years is still a guy who is looked at as a rotation lock.
  4. bean5302
    Ty France is almost certain to make the team now, I think. I don't like it much, but I didn't like Carlos Santana making the team last year, either. So maybe it'll work out?
  5. bean5302
    As a starter: 4.73 5.07 5.40 4.99 Those are his last 4 season ERAs. Yeah, I'll pass.
  6. bean5302
    No restrictions on DFA/releasing injured players that I know of. J.T. Chargois was DFA'd by the Twins in 2018 while recovering from TJ as I recall.
  7. bean5302
    Have you checked out at one of those kiosks before? I choose the self-checkout all the time at stores from the moment the lanes were added. At Target Field, though... it's been miserable. 1) You don't just scan items. Every item is a manual look up where you're tapping through multiple screens to find and select the items as if you were a trained employee. Except in the case of the Club Level's cantina where you place your food on a station and it uses lasers to and a scale to determine what you've chosen automatically. 2) When checking out, the POS isn't intuitive, I frequently encountered lag of 2-5 seconds, and the actual system is different for different stands. 3) If you have Sweet Spot, the order of operations isn't intuitive, the lag makes it seem like the system isn't responding and there are at least 3 different versions of bar code scanners in use each needing your phone to be held at different angles and positions. With the lag, sometimes they scan, sometimes they simply won't scan, and even with the staff taking over. I've given up on Sweet Spot discounts more than a couple times because I was sick of it after 30 seconds of trying. So yeah, normal self check out kiosks, great. I'm all for them. I'm the fast person in the lane who starts and finishes while the other 3 lanes are staring at the screen like zombies. 4627 = green kale, 4013 = braeburn apples, 4011 = banana (maybe I make green smoothies sometimes?)
  8. bean5302
    Canterino received a $1.1MM signing bonus back in 2019. He's 27 years old now and unless he's on the IL all year, he'll burn his final MiLB option. I'd expect the Twins to move him to the 60 day IL and DFA and release him before the end of the year. Canterino won't get anything other than a MiLB deal. The time for Canterino to make a decision in regard to his future career might be close at hand now. The $45k annual pay rate for him being on the 40 man in AAA, much less the $35k he'll make on a MiLB deal certainly wouldn't offset the compensation he'd be making professionally in a business setting.
  9. bean5302
    A quality 4th pitch would be huge for Festa's long term projections, but it's hard to develop new pitches out of the blue. Joe Ryan has experimented with his repertoire for years with varying levels of success when it comes to adding pitches. We'll have to wait until the regular season to see the impact.
  10. bean5302
    Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but the rigid structure I'm understanding is: Castellano isn't good enough to be in the bullpen. The Twins have no options but to keep him on the roster the entire year if he makes it out of camp. The Twins must deploy Castellano in scenarios they don't want to use him. Castellano will therefore result in the Twins losing games they should have won. My argument would be: Castellano's peripherals in AA last year were better than any Twins prospect not named Zebby Matthews. Castellano has multiple potential plus pitches which could make him a potent weapon out of the bullpen (or possibly even the rotation) even out of camp. The Twins can evaluate Castellano for his current and future value before offering him a roster spot during Spring Training. The Twins can give Castellano work in reliever work in blowout games to see him in action early in the season before the bullpen gets worn down and they can shuffle #7 bullpen arms back and forth in AAA to keep relievers fresh. The Twins can work out a trade or send Castellano back to the Phillies if they feel he's not worthy of the 8th spot in an MLB bullpen (or better). There are many guys in the rotation or bullpen which are suspect where it would be awfully hard for me to argue they're going to increase the winning percentage of the team in a way that elevates the teams status at the end of the season vs. a small sample of Castellano. Matt Canterino - shoulder strain (serious) Michael Tonkin - shoulder strain (will miss at least a couple weeks) Justin Topa - shoulder tightness (testing) Zebby Matthews - right hip strain (not serious) and we've got a few weeks to go. Who do you trust more? Kody Funderburk or Eiberson Castellano and if that's Funderburk, is that by enough to lose a probable #10 org prospect?
  11. bean5302
    So now the sticking point is the term "low-leverage reliever" you just don't like. Okay. "Reliever who isn't expected to be as good as the best guys in the bullpen so you don't use them in critical situations when you can avoid it." Seems like a long role name, but if it makes you happier... Every single team. All. of. them. Have relievers they prefer entering games in non-critical situations because they're not as reliable or dominant as the best arms in their bullpen. There is no ground for debating this. It is established fact with literally thousands of examples over recent seasons and that is what a "low-leverage reliever" is. Depending on what happens during the reliever being on the mound, leverage indexes change for every single reliever in the game so that information is not valuable. As far as Castellano's versatility the Twins have plenty of versatility with him. It's called letting him go back to the Phillies if he's not good enough. They can ditch Castellano any time they want. They could also arrange a trade for him, but expect the cost to be similar to a guy like Andrew Morris or another top 10 prospect. You're taking an extremely rigid position here.
  12. bean5302
    Stats from players at AA last year. Leader in bold. #5 - a23 - AA - 9.19 K/9 (25.2%), 2.04 BB/9 (5.6%), 41.9% GB, 1.90 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 3.33 xFIP (Morris) #6 - a21 - AA - 9.62 K/9 (24.8%), 4.27 BB/9 (11.0%), 41.8% GB, 4.27 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 4.06 xFIP (Raya) #9 - a23 - AA - 10.91 K/9(28.8%), 4.64 BB/9(12.2%), 36.9% GB, 2.59 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 3.92 xFIP (Lewis) #12 - a22 - AA - 9.00 K/9 (23.3%), 3.00 BB/9 (7.8%), 39.0% GB, 4.71 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 3.75 xFIP (Culpepper) #17 - a23 - AA - 11.16 K/9 (30.9%), 2.01 BB/9 (5.6%), 47.9% GB, 3.79 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.08 xFIP (Castellano) >20 - a24 - AA - 9.08 K/9 (24.5%), 2.33 BB/9 (6.3%), 42.5% GB, 3.67 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.58 xFIP (Adams)
  13. bean5302
    The Twins have messed with their point of sale systems the last 3 straight years, and they've had issues rolling each change out because staff doesn't get trained until immediately before opening day and many workers are "volunteers." The self-service market checkouts were miserable last year. They were slow, buggy and required staff to assist people on a regular basis. The bonus is I don't tip if I have to get my stuff and check myself out no matter how many staff are there to "help." So it does make things cheaper, and the staff less likely to sign up. I HATE self checkout. The last thing I want to do at a ball game is spend time figuring out how to navigate several different POS systems with different and often buggy scanning technologies and I really hate the audacity to place a default "tip" on self checkout markets. While it might track the total cost, I'm assuming you'll need it to track the total cost because of additional fees and hidden charges.
  14. bean5302
    It seems like the sticking point is a low leverage reliever who rounds out a bullpen could technically, rarely, be asked to pitch in a tight game or outside of an arbitrary definition of a purely low leverage situation. Therefore, there is no such thing as a low leverage reliever. There are no left handed specialist pitchers in a bullpen because they will be asked to pitch against right handed pitchers. There are no starters because they might be asked to pitch in relief. There are no bench players because they might be asked to start a few games a year. Jhoan Duran isn't a high leverage reliever because he might be asked to pitch in a lower leverage game. He's also not a closer and Jax isn't a set up guy because sometimes they pitch outside those roles. Carlos Correa isn't a shortstop because he was asked to DH in 1 game last year. J.D. Martinez isn't a DH because a team might have him play a game in the outfield. The argument roles don't exist because a person might be asked to do something outside of their primary role during their employment isn't realistic. Not on a baseball field or in any other job role for which I'm familiar.
  15. bean5302
    The throw velocities for Brooks Lee were recorded by Statcast. There are plenty of analytics to evaluate Brooks Lee's athleticism and in measurable physical skills, Lee is far below MLB average.
  16. bean5302
    Yes, it tells you what would probably, usually, have happened. So when 10 soft liners that would be caught 90% of the time drop in for a hit because Manny Margot is playing CF and 10 runs score as a result, FIP says that shouldn't have happened. Maybe only 5 runs should have scored according to FIP, and the pitcher shouldn't be judged on the fact Rocco Baldelli and Derek Falvey don't value defense. I like xFIP much more for relievers, myself, because an unlucky home run can wreck FIP (and ERA), but there are relievers who are just homer prone (Emilio Pagan). Just because fWAR isn't perfect doesn't mean it's not fair. Again, there are low leverage relievers and you can see a massive difference between reliever leverage indexes when they enter games. It's just a fact some relievers get used in high leverage situations on a regular basis where some relievers rarely see that scenario. Just like a screwdriver might be used as a prybar sometimes. Not "intended," but it happens. A low leverage, mop up reliever is still expected to be an MLB caliber pitcher (Michael Tonkin type). They're just not an elite arm. Nobody is advocating for an 8.00 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA/xERA guy in the bullpen just because, and no team in baseball has a bullpen full of all elite arms. If you're evaluating relief pitchers on wins and losses, there's nothing more for us to debate.
  17. bean5302
    Lots of comments about Matt Canterino's long term, repetitive and combinations of arm issues being related to "Rice University." What really happened is Canterino's violent and off balance delivery, which created major forces on his arm, worked okay while he was in his teens, but he started developing problems as he aged. Canterino did not throw crazy innings at Rice. It's not uncommon to see innings in the 90s at colleges in the US. Rice University didn't force Canterino to pitch in summer league in 2018. Rice didn't force him to pitch an extra 25 innings for the Twins in Rookie/A-Ball in 2019. Canterino's first arm injury showed up two years after he last pitched at Rice after he had a full year off from competitive pitching (2020).
  18. bean5302
    Yes, fWAR, the single best mainstream statistic which can be used today for relievers. Yes, low leverage relievers exist on every single team in MLB. I thought I just addressed that by showing the Guardians had them. The leverage index varies on relievers for teams. They have high/low leverage guys.
  19. bean5302
    I feel like Baldelli and Falvey might be learning about the concept of GIGO (garbage in-garbage out) in analytics. Slowly, though.
  20. bean5302
    Games decided by x number of runs for the Twins in 2024 4+ = 73 games <--- this is where low leverage relievers get their innings 3 = 20 games <--- maybe here, too 2 = 27 games 1 = 42 games There are absolutely going to be mediocre to questionably MLB worthy relievers who take the mound for the Twins (and every single other team in MLB) this year. Here are the names of the relievers who generated 0.0 or less WAR for Minnesota by innings pitched. There will be a plan to use several of their relievers exclusively in low leverage situations. That's standard MLB practice. It's also unavoidable relievers sometimes get used in situations you'd rather not deploy them if possible. Steven Okert - 35 innings Kody Funderburk - 34 innings Jay Jackson - 26 innings Louie Varland - 17 innings Trevor Richards - 13 innings Diego Castillo - 10 innings 7 other nameless relievers under 10 innings. The very best bullpen in all of baseball last year, the Guardians, sent out Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin to pitch 130 times for a total of 111.2 innings. Barlow produced 0.0 fWAR with a 4.25 ERA and a 4.02 FIP while Sandlin's 0.0 fWAR came with a very lucky 3.81 ERA despite the 5.23 FIP. Everybody understands the concept of not keeping a pitcher who isn't of MLB caliber or potential. Johan Santana wasn't worth a roster spot when the Twins took him in. Worked out okay for the Twins as I recall.
  21. bean5302
    I'd like to hope this is a minor injury. Matthews wasn't likely to make the 26 man out of camp, but he's still likely got a solid future ahead, including some 2025 appearances on the mound! Roto sites seem to be reporting it as ankle related.
  22. bean5302
    I'd expect Correa will play at least 135 games this year. Injuries happen, but Correa's been more durable than he's given credit for around these parts. Depth is probably not a problem. Castro, Lewis and Holland (AAA) have the tools necessary to play SS. The biggest question is whether or not Holland's bat shows up again this year. Can he hit at the MLB level well enough to replace Castro as a super utility/backup shortstop?
  23. bean5302
    The Twins have not valued stolen bases under Baldelli, and I don't expect that to change. 2019 - Dead last (28 for the whole team) 2020 - Dead last (14 for the whole team) 2021 - #25 (54 for the whole team) 2022 - Dead last (38 for the whole team) 2023 - tied #23-25 (86 for the whole team) 2024 - Dead last (65 for the whole team) No manager and front office in baseball history has ever valued stolen bases less.
  24. bean5302
    Brooks Lee does not have the physical skill set to play SS. He's very slow and he's got a weak arm. Only the Twins would even consider Lee as a potential option at SS.
  25. bean5302
    A single strikeout prone player may not be an issue. Having an entire lineup constructed with them makes it very hard to manufacture consistent runs. Twins fans have seen the outcome first hand. These evaluations are based on a single player striking out, but it's also a garbage evaluation because it should be evaluating strike out vs. putting a ball in play. Not strike out vs. other outs. Why? Because putting the ball in play doesn't always result in an out. A strikeout virtually always does.
×
×
  • Create New...