bean5302

Shoulder sprains which don't get better and wipe out a whole season aren't a good sign. Radio silence on the results from his late June MRI or any rehab work he did after that point, either. Wouldn't surprise me to hear he had to undergo unreported shoulder surgery. All in all, as of right now, 5% odds feels a little optimistic as a gut instinct.

Martin is a 2B, if he's going to be a starter. He's going to be defensively limited with a mediocre arm and fringe range in CF, his arm isn't ideal for SS/3B (think Polanco). His bat doesn't play in a corner OF/1B/DH role.

Prielipp has not been viewed as a relief pitcher by the organization yet as he was allowed to go as deep into games (50 pitches) as Marco Raya was for most of his season. A starting pitcher's value is 3-4x as high as an effective reliever. Aside from that, Prielipp was in A+ ball this year. I don't think it's a stretch to believe Prielipp will start next year in AA, but it feels absurd to suggest he could be part of the Twins' bullpen before mid-year under ideal circumstances. Even if the Twins did decide to make a radical shift on a top prospect to move him to the 'pen mid year, it would definitely push Prielipp back a year in regard to him becoming a potential starter. Not that it's really necessary since Prielipp hasn't won't need to be added to the 40 man roster until later this year. Based on how the Twins handled Marco Raya, I think it's a lot more likely Prielipp starts off at 3.0 innings (50 pitches) and stretches to 5.0 innings (80 pitches) by the end of the year, spending virtually the entire year in AA. BP1 Duran BP2 Jax BP3 Sands BP4 Stewart BP5 Topa BP6 Alcala BP7 Moran BP8 Varland Tonkin, Henriquez, Funderburk, Blewett, etc for potentially the back end of the 'pen. There are plenty of options to fill things out. I'm not sure the Twins' bullpen needs much help. The fans' memory of the bullpen being awful really seems to swing back to a few late season desperation games when the offense honestly failed to score sufficient runs and the bullpen needed to put up a ton of zeroes to win the game. The 4 of the 7 relievers with 20+ appearances who are likely to return went 22-23 (Jax, Duran, Funderburk, Alcala) 16-17 9 blown saves (6 by Jax) 34 saves (79%) or 89% excluding Jax's 6 BS vs. 10 SV 51 holds 5.9 fWAR (5th in MLB)

No, he's really bad. It's just the Twins as a ballclub as a whole are truly horribly, embarrassingly slow. here are the breakouts of 10+ attempts by position and the MIN which is what I would consider the point at which a players speed is a significant fielding liability for the position. C = 79 players, 23.1-28.9ft/sec median = 25.9ft/sec, min = 25.0 ft/sec 1B = 56 players, 24.0-28.6ft/sec median = 26.4ft/sec, min = 26.0 ft/sec 2B = 64 players, 24.7-29.9ft/sec median = 27.7ft/sec, min = 27.0 ft/sec 3B = 81 players, 25.1-29.3ft/sec median = 27.3ft/sec, min = 26.5 ft/sec SS = 58 players, 25.1-30.5ft/sec median = 28.0ft/sec, min = 27.5 ft/sec LF = 61 players, 26.1-30.0ft/sec median = 28.0ft/sec, min = 26.5 ft/sec CF = 57 players, 26.5-30.1ft/sec median = 28.6ft/sec, min = 28.0 ft/sec RF = 67 players, 26.0-29.8fts/ec median = 27.8ft/sec, min = 26.5ft/sec

Castro played a ton of positions at Baldelli's request, and that's worth something in terms of the Twins strategy. Since Willi ended up the season pretty much exactly the same as last season wRC+ 108-109, I think he's done great at cementing himself as a solid MLB bat at this point. Great news for him as he approaches free agency. Jax and Sands had great years in general. I know a few people want Jax to be given a shot at the rotation, but I'm not sure being absolutely dominant helps or hurts his case. It'll be interesting to see how those guys move forward. Santana's "unlikely plays" illustrate why DRS isn't stable as a metric. Overall, he contributed to less real outs than his peers at 1B, but the bonus multipliers can warp results. I didn't like the way Santana played 1B this year watching the games. I like that info about Woods-Richardson. TBH, I hadn't really dived into his results based on his pitches and locations much. Hopefully, the coaches can work with him again this spring to help him optimize his limited stuff. Also, here's hoping the trainers can get him into better shape. Sim hitting a wall and running out of gas as in August at 112 innings as a 23 year old with 7 years of professional experience is a huge red flag about his potential future in the rotation to me.

If people want to see more values, you can get a subscription to the site for all the values any time you want them. Or, you can search for your desired player in recent trade proposals https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades In regard to Matt Wallner specifically, he's not in any trades since July. His value fluctuated radically throughout the year (for obvious reasons) January 9th = +23.1 June 15th = +7.5 June 18th = +8.7 July 23rd = +17.6 I'd be willing to bet it's far higher right now. Considering the Twins have 5 more years of control over Wallner and he still has an option, a full teardown and rebuild strategy wouldn't generally include guys like him.

Wallner isn't arb eligible yet. I didn't include the whole 40+ man haha

Career for Castro 2B - UZR/150 = -4.5, OAA +4, 3B - UZR/150 = +5.3, OAA +2 SS - UZR/150 = -6.5, OAA -3 CF - UZR/150 = -12.1, OAA -4 2024 for Castro 2B - UZR/150 =-0.8, OAA = 0 3B - UZR/150 = +5.2, OAA +1 SS - UZR/150 = -9.5, OAA +3 CF - UZR/150 = -5.9, OAA -3 Castro's only position where I'd consider him a plus at all is 3B. He's probably average at 2B and a big liability at SS/CF. He certainly failed the eye test at SS and CF for me this past year as well.

Some recent (post end of season) trade proposal valuations for Twins players hitting arbitration or under contract. Baseballtradevalues helps to remove personal biases regarding players and how valuable the rest of the league may or may not see them. Some trades wind up being pretty lopsided by their website, though, so it's hardly perfect. Griffin Jax +40.9 Pablo Lopez +37.4 Jhoan Duran +31.0 Royce Lewis +26.3 Bailey Ober +22.9 Carlos Correa +22.8 Ryan Jeffers +13.1 Byron Buxton +0.4 Manny Margot -0.4 Christian Vazquez -7.8 Joe Ryan? Chris Paddack? Jorge Alcala? Brock Stewart? Michael Tonkin? Justin Topa? Randy Dobnak? Willi Castro? Trevor Larnach? Alex Kirilloff? Kyle Farmer?

The Pohlad Family may or may not find a buyer for the Twins. Completely blowing the product up in the hopes that's what a new owner might want is seemingly a lot of risk for an ownership group known far and wide as risk averse. Keeping things relatively status quo is nice and conservative given the lack of identity or obvious direction for the club's roster. According to some sort of inside source, Dan Hayes reported the Twins' front office doesn't expect any reduction in payroll. Any money saved by trading a player or players would result in an expected reinvestment into the roster. Barring a new leak suggesting the opposite, the conspiracy theory stuff doesn't interest me much.

The Tigers were awful for 10 years. I don't think that's a good blueprint for anybody.

Willi Castro has been brutal in CF throughout his entire career, but average-ish at 2B, grading out quite well at 3B. Martin was certainly awful in CF last year, though he was one of the best 2B in the International league in 2023. Martin's arm probably prevents him from being a good option at 3B. Honestly, I don't expect much difference between the two defensively. Castro's bat is good enough to be a starter, though. Martin's is not.

Polanco is bad defensively, he had an awful year at the plate, and he's constantly hurt. His K rate has skyrocketed over the past few years as his contact and barrel rates have cratered, and he's now in his 30s. I'd give him a MiLB contract with an invite, sure, but anything beyond that just seems foolish. Inviting the Tim Anderson scenario.

I cannot possibly fathom why Castro would take that deal. The Twins might be able to lock him up at $5MM next year, and $12MM for the two years after that... maybe. He's projected to make $6.2MM in arbitration this year and he becomes a free agent in 2026 at age 29. Spotrac has his Market Value at 3yrs / $30MM. No way you can buy out a year or two of a29, a30 free agency for less than his current arbitration value. The Twins will likely have to clear salary (Lopez or Ober or Ryan) in order to retain Castro. I do think they'll probably sign/trade Castro, but I thought they'd sign/trade Farmer last year. Teams across MLB will know Falvey will almost have to trade Castro because of payroll concerns, and they'll use that leverage. Falvey doesn't seem capable of applying reasonable value to his players in the trade market, and it's a definite concern of mine. If he overplays Castro the way I suspect he's overplayed guys like Kepler and Polanco in the past, the return might be pretty light as the 2025 season approaches and the payroll gets desperate.

I think the Tigers and Royals will likely finish 1-2 in the AL Central next year barring some dramatic roster decisions by the Twins. Both Detroit and Kansas City have elite arms at the front of their rotation, not just a #2/3 starter masquerading as elite with a random advanced metric or two backing them up. C - Jake Rogers 1B - Spencer Torkelson 2B - Colt Keith 3B - Matt Vierling SS - ? LF - Riley Greene CF - Parker Meadows RF - Kerry Carpenter DH - ? BC - Dillon Dingler UI - Jace Jung UI - Javier Baez UO - Wenceel Perez SP1 - Tarik Skubal SP2 - Brant Hurter SP3 - Reese Olson SP4 - ? SP5 - Casey Mize The Tigers' bullpen is too much of a mess to break out. I'd suspect Detroit will be in the running for a a couple good RP's this offseason to lead the bullpen since they have plenty of solid depth.

Except Farmer wasn't viewed as a backup utility infielder. He was viewed as a starting platoon strategy utility infielder. Farmer played in more games than Byron Buxton or Max Kepler last year, and nearly as many as Jose Miranda, Ryan Jeffers or Trevor Larnach. Helman might get his chance as an age 29 MiLB roster filler. As a guy the Twins have left off the 40 man for the last 3 years who was ignored by the rest of the league during the Rule 5, Helman is probably only going to get one shot if he does get it.

LOL, no. I wanted Duran this past offseason, and I would have been willing to part with a couple pieces to get him because the Twins desperately need an inexpensive, potential every day CFer under control for at least 2-3 years, especially this past offseason. Jarren Duran put together an MVP worthy campaign last year. He's played at a level equal to Royce Lewis' likely ceiling. MLBTR projects Duran at $4.9MM is kinda... well, stupid. MLBTR projects nearly the same for Bailey Ober? Duran put up as much WAR last year as pretty much Ober's entire career. I don't understand MLBTR's projection models in a couple instances (Jarren Duran, Griffin Jax) In any case, Boston is not going to part with Mookie Betts #2 for a #3/4 starter in arbitration like Bailey Ober unless you're talking like a package like Brooks Lee + Royce Lewis + Bailey Ober. That's literally what Duran would cost right now. BaseballTradeValues Ober +22 Lewis +26 Lee +33 Duran +71

Duran is not bringing in a haul. He'll bring in a #5ish org prospect, maybe, but more likely a combo of like #8 and a #10 or something like that as teams are loathe to part with their best prospects for anything other than a truly elite reliever during a playoff push. His salary this year is going to jump to around $4MM this year which starts to eat a lot into his surplus value. If this was 2 years ago, Duran would bring a haul because there was still some ceiling built into him, plus he had a couple years of league minimum salary ahead. Duran is maybe a 1.2-1.3 WAR type of pitcher. Definitely valuable in the 'pen, but a far cry from a guy like Mason Miller. Considering the Twins' total lack of quality depth in the bullpen, it seems like that's a poor choice to trade away.

The Royals have the hard to find rotation pieces at the top with Ragans and Lugo on the books for next year. Singer was solid enough as a #3, and Alec Marsh was good enough to hold down a back end rotation spot. Noah Cameron is probably an opening day starter for 2025 rounding out the rotation. They'll still need to add an emergency arm or two for depth. Easy to come by. Bobby Witt, Jr. is a legitimate MVP candidate, and Salvador Perez had a great resurgence filling the #1 catcher position with solid backup Fermin. Perez split time at 1B. There's some young talent on the team, but most of their recent players to exhaust rookie status had major problems at the plate. The good news is the Royals have a ton of free money to throw around (after Wacha opts out and the Royals decline Frazier) and Sherman is 100% going to do just that as he pursues a new stadium. I think the Royals are obvious potential landing spots for what will be a very cheap Michael A. Taylor trying for a rebound and soon to be former Twins player, Max Kepler. Joc Pederson makes a lot of sense for his ability to technically cover an OF position or 1B or DH. There are some other holes on the Royals' roster, and I think they'll add at least 2 more quality bullpen arms, maybe another position player, too. I'm not sure I see a big long term deal C - Perez 1B - Pasquantino 2B - Massey 3B - ? SS - Witt, Jr. LF - Renfroe CF - Michael A. Taylor? RF - Max Kepler? DH - Joc Pederson? BC - Freddy Fermin UI - Garcia UI - ? UO - ? SP1 - Ragans SP2 - Lugo SP3 - Singer SP4 - Cameron SP5 - Marsh BP1 - Erceg BP2 - Bubic BP3 - Scheriber BP4 - Stratton BP5 - ? BP6 - ? BP7 - ? BP8 - ?

Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober... not both. None of those 3 are worth as much as Ober or Ryan (because of team control and low costs for Ryan and Ober)

I think this article is just a camouflaged hit job on J.D. Drew that somebody has always wanted to write. Premise: the Twins needed an energy guy to inspire the lineup or something. All Twins fans realize Royce Lewis is the personification of "energy guy," but he doesn't count because he wasn't playing well. Buxton isn't an "energy guy" because he gets hurt. Matt Wallner isn't an "energy guy" because he tinkers with his swing.

No doubt the front office is going to aggressively shop Paddack and his 4.82 ERA over the past 3 injury riddled seasons with the Twins. The question is whether or not they can find any partner willing to eat a significant portion of Paddack's salary despite his poor results, pedestrian K rates despite not being a ground ball pitcher, and his complete lack of historical reliability when there are guys available on MiLB contracts or close to league minimum reclamation projects available for far less.

The White Sox traded Chris Sale as I recall. It all depends on the situation.

Santana is an average fielder. He's lazy and hurts our other infielders because he won't move off the bag to catch a ball. Instead of a rightfully scored infield hit, it always winds up as a throwing error and half the time the runner advances. UZR had him at +2.3 last year, he's varied from -2.0 to +2.1 for the prior 5 years. The metric is stable. For fans of OAA he's been at +1 to +3 defensively for 5 previous years. He's +14 this year. The metric is broken. For fans of DRS, he's also varied from -1 to +11 defensively over the last 5 years. It's a terribly unstable metric. He's +8 this year.

Every single time a trade conversation surrounding a popular Twins player is broached, there are people who make the argument somehow it would make fans revolt and not show up. I've never seen any proof of that. Year after Puckett, attendance increased. The year after Mauer left, attendance increased. Fans don't care. They just don't. I'd actually be somewhat surprised if the Twins didn't trade one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober, and it's probably Lopez. I'd also be surprised if one of Ober or Ryan wasn't traded after this season. That's how the Rays work. If the Pohlad family (who is currently directing the franchise) wants to emulate the Rays, casting off Lopez is a real quick way to start. In regard to trade value, both Ryan and Ober are more valuable than Lopez right now, IMHO. If the Twins ship Ober or Ryan (and another piece) and come back with a legit cost controlled front end starter, it'd be a huge win for the team. Not sure who that cost controlled upper rotation guy would be, but it's just an example. Given the depth the Twins have at starter in MiLB, and the ability to pick up a cheap reclamation project arm, along with the holes they have elsewhere, just sound strategy to me.