bean5302

Looks a bit like Pat Meares as @Ben B stated.

As far as Alcala goes, yeah, he could definitely start in AAA. The Twins were quick to demote him throughout last year, and it certainly didn't seem like Baldelli or the front office changed how they felt about him towards the end of the year. Expecting management has suddenly seen the light now seems unrealistic. It was seemingly bizarre how frequently Alcala would go out, pitch a couple solid games only to be on the shuttle and stuck in St. Paul for the mandatory 2 weeks while less talented bullpen fillers were blowing games.

If Castellano doesn't truly impress the Twins coaches and management as a starter during Spring Training, it's easy to move him to the bullpen to get a good look at him for a month or two. If the Twins don't have any space in the bullpen for a low leverage arm, something has gone very crazy. Having Castellano come in and pitch a few innings in a blowout is hardly risky. There's just no point to making a selection in Rule 5 if you're not willing to even give the player a chance.

Julien is going to have to prove he will swing at pitches and make contact to extend plate appearances, even when the pitches he's seeing aren't his favorites. I think Julien's performance last year was actually a good part mental. Like Wallner's struggles early after getting some real bad strike calls to open the season. It's not like the Twins gave him much time to work through his struggles, either. Julien continued to hold his own through mid-May, and the Twins pulled the plug on him after literally 2 weeks of struggles. What a mind trip it must have been. One week "he's our guy!" 2 weeks later, "f that guy. loser. let's get Golden Child guaranteed RoY Brooks Lee up here!" A lot of people forget Julien started the season very well last year. Through April, 109 PA: .223/.330/.500 wRC+ 136 despite a lowly .269 BABIP. Oswing was 17% Zswing was 58%, 37% overall, and contact was 73%. Julien was only seeing 31% four seamers at that point, and he saw 29% for the rest of the year so it's not like pitchers changed their approach in terms of the type of pitches they were throwing him. Even May 1 through May 15 .243/.364/.270 wRC+94 after April, overall, the wheels really fell off. Julien opened up his swing zone a fair bit Oswing was 21% Zswing was 62%, 43% overall, contact was 71%. Julien's problems after April were not really related to offspeed and breaking pitches. He wasn't hitting fastballs anymore. From +8.5 to -2.1 in pitch type value for 4 seamers. Barrel rate and hard hit rates tanked along with exit velocity and balls were flat coming off his bat. Writing Julien entirely off at this point is a little crazy.

One long day drive if airfare spikes, too. Unfortunately, there isn't any tailgating in the area I'm aware of anymore. There used to be a couple places on Wazee St. where some folks would cookout. Not sure if that still happens. Still, it's felt like a 50/50 Twins/Rockies fanbase when I've gone in the past.

I have no expectations for Royce Lewis this year. With the way his performance struggles hit for the last couple months and the injuries hobbled him up all year, I'll remain hopeful, but not expectant. It's clear Lewis was not happy with the organization towards the end of the year, and the clubhouse wasn't a fun place to be for him, either. On top of that, the Twins got him to agree to a contract well below his arbitration value expectation so I'm not sure how bitter things are these days. It's hard to focus and excel in an environment where you're miserable so I hopeful things have mended a bit. He could be anything from a 1.0 WAR to 6.0 WAR guy. No idea.

Wouldn't it be great if we could ignore half the starts for pitchers and magically waive a wand over them to make them healthy? Your argument ignores what Paddack has been over his career to focus on who he is on his best days. It's an incredible cherry pick presented in a terribly manipulative fashion.

I love Coors Field, and attending Twins games there has always been a blast.

Might have been Twins eat $5MM and get back a PTBNL. I could see Falvey holding out for more in that instance... or watching the pitching market skyrocket and overplaying his hand. Prices fell back down to Earth after an initial run up.

Why are we still living in 2019 for Chris Paddack? He is not a prospect. He is not a pitcher who has room for growth. There are reasons no teams in MLB really wanted him this past offseason. He has never, in his entire career: A) Pitched more than 140.2 innings. B) Had an ERA & FIP below 3.95 in the same season. Since his rookie season in 2019, he has never: A) Pitched more than 108.1 innings. B) Had an ERA below 4.73 as a starter C) Had a K/9 higher than 8.85 as a starter He's a #4-5, at best, if healthy. He doesn't strike many guys out, and he's no longer a ground ball guy so he gives up a ton of home runs. The Twins should trade him for a Snickers bar and salary relief if they can.

Every player is going to have a few bad plays. My eye test just saw a lot of balls which were catchable/stoppable fly past his glove because he wasn't willing to concede the base and prioritize catching the ball first, getting the out second. Like when Jake Cave used to dive for every ball within 20 feet of him.

So many moving parts right now. I think there's a very solid chance Castellano breaks camp on the big league team. The bullpen and rotation are both packed, but both have some flexibility with options available. Moving Festa and Sim to AAA wouldn't be unprecedented. Remember 2 years ago when the Twins had Ober and Varland starting the season in St. Paul to make room in the rotation? If Castallano impresses with his stuff/control in ST, and I do expect the Twins will be giving him a lot of looks, I could see him being in the rotation to start the season. Castallano was pitching 5-6 innings pretty much like clockwork from mid-May on last year. Down the stretch (AA) after the All Star Break 8 GS, 40.1 IP, 3.79 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 30.9% K, 5.6% BB, 0.99 WHIP, .280 BABIP 6.0+ innings 37.5% 5.0+ innings 87.5% Quality Start 37.5% (every time 6+ innings) Quality Start2 75% (5.0+ innings under 4.00 ERA) While not totally dominant, the numbers were impressive. Throw out the 1 bad start, and Castellano's numbers do look dominant, and he was regularly getting well into the 3rd TTO. 7 GS, 38.0 IP, 2.61 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 32.1% K, 5.5% BB, 0.87 WHIP, .246 BABIP

Kepler's PA/G against lefties declined pretty much every year from my recollection. 2019 = 1.83 (27.3%) 2020 = 1.61 (27.0%) 2021 = 1.82 (26.3%) 2022 = 1.75 (26.7%) 2023 = 1.49 (18.2%) 2024 = 1.40 (19.5%) Buxton 2019 = 1.84 (23.1%) 2020 = 1.88 (22.2%) 2021 = 2.53 (33.9%) 2022 = 2.43 (29.8%) 2023 = 2.31 (25.9%) 2024 = 2.19 (26.5%) Larnach PA/G 2021 = 1.75 (28.0%) 2022 = 1.57 (26.7%) 2023 = 1.64 (10.8%) 2024 = 1.28 (5.8%) Wallner PA/G 2022 = 1.64 (27.7%) 2023 = 1.70 (18.1%) 2024 = 1.58 (15.0%) Seems to me, Baldelli has grown more and more stringent on his platoon philosophy. Doesn't matter who it is, Baldelli would rather platoon them.

In a one year sample, Santana was outstanding in "1" metric (OAA), which was the same metric where he was a little above average in 2023. He was very good in "1" metric (DRS), which was the same metric where he was average just a couple years ago. UZR has him roughly league average for nearly a decade. OAA and DRS are wildly unstable metrics. As far as the eye test goes, I was not impressed with Santana. He would not move off the bag to catch balls. I don't care if the runner is safe. Santana not moving off the bag to stop balls changed rulings from what would have been "infield hit" with a runner on 1st to "E4" or "E5" or "E6" with a runner on 2nd plenty of times. I'm not concerned about Santana not manning 1B at all.

Buxton will never, ever have a full season. 100 games was a serious milestone for him and he and his family celebrated it. He's got a ton of chronic issues which will never go away. Back, migraine, knees. He's going to miss time, and I think it's unfair to even expect more than 80 games. It's why the Twins signed Bader. Buxton simply will not play a full season. Correa has been one of the more durable players in MLB over the past several years. He's qualified for a championship award (504 PA+) in 2021, 2022, and again in 2023. Being healthy is obviously important, but he's taking a bit too much criticism for health due to recency bias. The jury is totally out on Lewis, but it doesn't look good for his durability. Hopefully, the lower body has fully healed and strengthened itself up. Doctors warned of the high risk for Lewis to have the quad injury and the hip injury as the injuries chain together in a waterfall throughout the healing/strengthening process as each segment of the chain takes added stress. We'll probably know if Lewis will ever be the player he once was in terms of athleticism by the end of April. If we see those sprint speeds north of 28 ft/sec.

Hahaha, really? As of right now, I'd give Gasper a 1% chance. I mean, sure, Boston put him at 2B... but he only started 18 games in his entire MiLB career there. It was pretty wild to put him at the keystone, IMHO. Gasper had 108 GS at catcher, 179 GS at 1B. The 18 games he started at 2B were almost all from the Yankees' system in 2023. 1B - France (R), Miranda (R), Julien (L), Gasper (S) 2B - Castro (S), Julien (L), Lee (S), Lewis (R), Gasper (S) C - Jeffers (R), Vazquez (R), Cartaya (R), Camargo (R), Gasper (S) DH - By committee Gasper is going to have to prove a lot this spring. I'm not even sure how the organization actually views him right now.

Falvey is known for waiting until the last minute (too late in most cases) to make moves, and there is nothing preventing the Twins from making trades over the next 5 weeks before opening day. At the moment, Paddack's $7.5MM has him basically neutral in trade value, but there will be injuries not only on the Twins, but other teams as well. It wouldn't surprise me to see Paddack to moved out before the season starts if he has a healthy spring and the velocity looks good. Of course, it also wouldn't surprise me to see Matthews or SWR shipped out. Logjam today, maybe less pressure tomorrow.

Simeon Woods Richardson's stuff didn't look great last year, and the scouting reports appeared to be catching up to him. He also apparently wore down despite not throwing that many innings. Starting on 8/27, his velocity dropped off quite a bit. That was after 13.1 innings (AAA) + 112.1 (MLB) innings. A 23 year old guy who has been a professional for 7 years and had thrown over 100 innings the previous two years wouldn't normally be expected to run into fatigue like that. Still, SWR added about 4mph to his fastball last year so his body might just have needed some time to adapt so mulligan on the conditioning, I guess. SWR first 9 starts, avg. velo = 93.0 mph, ERA 3.05, xFIP, 4.47 <-- meh SWR next 13 starts, avg. velo = 93.5 mph, ERA 4.10, xFIP, 4.24 <-- okay, #4/5ish? SWR last 6 starts, avg. velo = 92.1 mph, ERA 6.75, xFIP, 5.72 <-- offfffda While the common perception around these parts seems to be starters don't go 6.0+ innings very much anymore, that's not been true when I've looked at most teams/starters. SWR doesn't pitch deep because he struggles to throw strikes. He went 6.0+ only 7 times in his first 20 starts with the Twins. First 22 games (doesn't include hypothesized fatigue starts) - 85.8 pitches per start, 5.11 innings per start 6.0+ Innings 35% 5.0+ Innings 55% <5.0 Innings 45% Looking at MLB averages for starter with 140+ innings last year Carlos Rodon - 96.9 pitches per start, 5.46 innings per start (bottom 25%) 6.0+ Innings 47% 5.0+ Innings 75% <5.0 Innings 25% Bailey Ober - 87.0 pitches per start (bottom 12%), 5.76 innings per start 6.0+ Innings 65% 5.0+ Innings 84% <5.0 Innings 16% SWR just wasn't efficient throwing strikes, but he had plus location as he put his pitches where they needed to be. He just didn't have any plus "stuff." Here are his Stuff+ grades Fastball 77 (35 grade) Slider 95 (45 grade) Curve 90 (45 grade) Change 107 (55 grade) Location 106 (60 grade, less spread for location) Basically, what I'm saying is SWR didn't earn his results early in the season. He was lucky and the scouting reports weren't out yet. He's not going to be an efficient pitcher because he has to be careful where he places his pitches or they'll get walloped because they don't move particularly well so he's not the kind of guy who can be expected to pitch deeper into games. It's great SWR was able to "save the season" as people will put it, but he didn't save it by being great, he saved it with a little luck and just not being horrible until he tired out. I don't think he's done enough to deserve a spot in the opening day rotation. He does deserve a shot at competing for it, though.

Paddack

Paddack

I think injuries could easily dictate the rotation. Also, have to look at flexibility in terms of rostering. Both Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa have options. Chris Paddack and Eiberson Castellano do not have options the Twins can use. The bullpen appears to be bursting at the seams as well. There are 21 pitchers on the 40 man, LOL. SP - Pablo Lopez (no options) SP - Joe Ryan (3 options) SP - Bailey Ober (1 option) SP - Chris Paddack (no options) SP - Eiberson Castalleno - (no options, potential bullpen candidate) ------------------------------------------- SP - Simeon Woods Richardson (1 option) SP - David Festa (3 options) SP - Zebby Matthews (3 options) SP - Marco Raya (3 options) SP - Travis Adams (3 options) RP - Jhoan Duran (1 option) RP - Griffin Jax (2 options) RP - Danny Coulombe (no options) RP - Brock Stewart (no options) RP - Michael Tonkin (no options) RP - Cole Sands (1 option) RP - Jorge Alcala (2 options) RP - Matt Canterino (1 option) ------------------------------------------ RP - Justin Topa (2 options) RP - Louie Varland (1 option) RP - Kody Funderburk (2 options) There will be injuries. Brock Stewart is questionable to be ready opening day based on comments already. It's tough to say how things work out.

Regarding Gasper, I think it's a long shot he makes the roster out of ST, especially with the recent pick ups of Cartaya and France. Gasper's got 3 options so there's no rush on him at all. The one thing I want answered about him is can he catch? If he can catch during ST, there's a chance the Twins call his number this year. Judging him based on the outcome of 23 PA makes zero sense to me, but his blunt refusal to swing the bat during those 23 PAs is more concerning. If Gasper doesn't impress in ST or doesn't look like he can catch, I'd be surprised if he's not DFA'd. Cartaya has a single option, and I'd expect he'll be the primary catcher in AAA even though it's not ideal. He'd probably have a chance at making the MLB roster if he were left handed or if Vazquez gets moved before the season starts which I think is still a real possibility. Injuries around the league coupled with a good ST from Cartaya could make moving Vazquez much more palatable for both the Twins and a partner. Julien and Miranda both have only 1 option left, and both have had some substantial success at the MLB level. Having them start the year in AAA seems far-fetched to me. Brooks Lee looked terrible last year (yes, he was worse at the plate than Julien) and Lee has 3 options remaining. I think Brooks Lee likely starts off at AAA barring a trade, especially given Baldelli's comments that he expects Castro to be playing a lot of 2B at this point. I think Camargo is likely to be DFA'd if Gasper looks like he can catch, and again, barring any trade action. Carrying 5 catchers on the 40 man is too heavy. I can't see any of the NRI guys making the roster. There's so much fringe depth on the team already.

The SEC in NCAA is probably equivalent to Rookie Ball or so. There have been an incalculable number prospects who look great in the low minors in small sample sizes only to fall apart at higher levels, even in the Twins' system. Jordan Balazovic was a sure-thing ace in A+ ball at age 20 for example. The potential ceiling started to show at AA, and it collapsed at AAA/MLB. Pitchers need to not only have great stuff, but they need to be able to throw it for strikes with some command. Balazovic did not have great stuff despite being unhittable and rocking a 12 K/9 with an outstanding 4.5 K/BB ratio at A+ ball while being 3 years younger than Prielipp.

Adding pitches is fine as a concept, but it doesn't work out all that often. Morris is a 5 pitch guy already. If none of those pitches is good enough to get righties out in AAA as a RHP, they're certainly not going to play at the MLB level. Nobody needs a 6th pitch, just a better 2nd pitch. Hopefully, Morris can refine his approach and pitches to get the K rate or grounder rate up in AAA. Living in the zone giving up 25% line drives isn't going to work in MLB.

I think he'd come up as a starter, not a bullpen arm if Prielipp is dominating. I'm not convinced the Twins won't have depth issues this year. The TD Hype Machine is burning hot blue flames for Prielipp right now, but I think it would be prudent to cool it down a bit. The consensus I've seen is there is no consensus because nobody is talking about him other than TD. This is a big year for Prielipp to prove his stuff against real competition. Prielipp is a 3 pitch guy which can be limiting out of the rotation, and a 23 year old college pick blowing the doors off low minors guys in short outings isn't going to turn too many heads. https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/minnesota-twins-top-50-prospects-2025/ Prielipp ended 2024 outside the top 20 for MLB, and ended 2024 as #17 for Fangraphs. He started 2025 as #13 for Prospects1500. There is no doubt a guy like Prielipp still has an enormous ceiling, but until he's pitching against high minors talent and going through the order more than once, it's impossible to truly grade his stuff. If Prielipp has a good spring and starts the year off hot in AA, I expect he'll garner a lot of attention, but expecting the kind of performance which would make him one of the best 13 arms for the MLB roster is too much of a leap for me.