bean5302
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Everything posted by bean5302
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David Festa Sure Looks Like a Major-League Starter
bean5302 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That was 2022, and it's not relevant because of what happened in 2023. Gray was happy with his utilization in 2023 where he pitched 184 innings and went 6+ innings regularly which is why his quotes and comments after 2023 were positive about the Twins. -
Keirsey is not 28 so the article doesn't start off on a good foot, but it's not like it's material as Keirsey is 27 and 3 months at the moment. He turns 28 next May. The history is clear Keirsey is an extreme long shot as prospects who don't force their way onto a roster by age 25 or 26 are almost never successful. DaShawn Keirsey's CF defensive numbers are weaker than Austin Martin's were. Keirsey might be okay in CF, but he's almost certainly not going to be a plus defender at the position. Honestly, I don't see any way Martin isn't superior to Keirsey, and Martin is honestly that prototypical 4th outfielder type. There's about a 5% chance Keirsey can manage a wRC+ 90 or higher at the MLB level in my opinion. Keirsey struggled two years ago in AA (a25). He struggled last year in AAA (a26). He's struggled half the season in AAA this year. Despite a fiery hot little streak recently, Keirsey is .284/.340/.428 OPS .768 wRC+ 98 since coming back from his injury on 6/22. Below average at AAA. At age 27. There's are reasons Keirsey wasn't called up until the Twins had injuries stack up, and reasons he isn't being played by the Twins currently. He's gotten 3 plate appearances since he was called up. For whatever reason, Keirsey seems to be a huge site writer favorite, but I don't see any of the positive projectability in him. I think it's great he got to the big show, and he'll get his chance to play at the MLB level to create some memories. I consider it absolutely unreasonably wild to suggest Keirsey can replace Buxton.
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Glad Jenkins has made up for his lost start to the season and struggles at the plate early. I don't think this makes any impact on expectations. Jenkins on the Twins before the very end of 2025 would be a major stretch in my opinion, but 2026 was always the plan. Emmanuel Rodriguez could be with Minnesota next year, but he's just lost so much time it feels like it'd be pretty questionable to give him a permanent job in the outfield out of the gate. The biggest surprise impacts to the Twins might be Trevor Larnach's major revised approach making him a legitimate potential corner OF. I didn't see that coming at all. I figured he's stick as a quasi-4th corner outfielder injury replacement depth option. Also, Payton Eeles coming out of Indy ball and looking like an absolutely legit potential every day player. The Twins still desperately need a full time starting caliber outfielder who can cover center field DaShawn Keirsey has about a 0.1% chance of being that guy as far as I'm concerned. I was hoping Rodriguez would be able to force his way up onto the roster for the final couple months of the season, but the thumb really side tracked that.
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Week in Review: Coming Undone
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't see the Twins as particularly injury ravaged. Buxton typically only plays 80 games a year. His availability is normal, even a little better than normal this year. Correa's loss has hurt and so has Ryan's but compared to MLB teams in general, the Twins' injury woes aren't atypical at all from what I can see. This team is just playing sloppy baseball. Baldelli's moves have often been perplexing, but the way the team is playing reflects the convergence of many problems created by the front office in general. 1. Failure to address team needs this past offseason. 2. Failure to find creative solutions to needs at the deadline, obviously hampered severely by the ownership, but this is a chicken or egg type of question as well. 3. Philosophies which seem to ignore real world complexity in favor of absolute faith in limited data, like the anybody can play any defensive position approach with very limited experience or the pinch hitting platoon concept.- 34 replies
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- royce lewis
- louis varland
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The Twins look like the team which was playing back in early April. Still, they're in a good position thanks to how surprisingly uninspired the rest of the AL Wildcard favorites have been. The Royals rolled over against Cleveland, but the Twins have seemingly struggled even worse. The Red Sox are trying to avoid the playoffs at all costs, even dropping games to the lowly White Sox. Meanwhile, Detroit and Seattle have moved back into striking distance thanks to Minnesota's free fall. Over the past month. Starter ERA = 13th vs. DET (5th), SEA (6th), BOS (7th) Reliever ERA = 20th vs. DET (1st), SEA (11th), BOS (30th... OUCH) Lineup RBI = 20th vs. DET (16th), SEA (14th), BOS (21st) Lineup wOBA = 20th vs. DET (22nd), SEA (19th), BOS (26th) Detroit is looking like a real threat to eat the Twins' playoff hopes, and Seattle is becoming a significant threat. Boston just got Story back who could maybe help the lineup, but clearly they need relievers. This Twins team does not feel like last year's squad which had some magic and mojo.
- 72 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- jose miranda
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Eeles is listed anywhere from 5'5 to 5'8 depending on your source, but he's always listed at like 180lbs. Saints = 5'5" Kernels = 5'7" Costal Carolina = 5'7" Chicago Dogs (Indy) = 5'7" Cedarville University = 5'8"
- 12 replies
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- payton eeles
- emmanuel rodriguez
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David Festa Sure Looks Like a Major-League Starter
bean5302 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm concerned about Festa remaining serviceable in the rotation, but his overall Stuff+ values are average, with other pitch modeling systems being much more bullish on Festa's changeup. Time will tell how Festa performs as the scouting reports get better. Festa certainly has a lot less margin for error with his limited pitch repertoire than a guy like Zebby Matthews, but Matthews' actual stuff doesn't include as good of a fastball or a true plus pitch right now. I think both guys may have what it takes to stick at the back end of a rotation, but they both have some work to do if they're going to excel in the future. With the tight budget ownership is expected to cinch down on the front office for 2025, rotational depth is likely going to be a major weakness for the Twins. -
David Festa Sure Looks Like a Major-League Starter
bean5302 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd be surprised if the front office moved Paddack to the 'pen given their aversion for paying relievers. I think the front office has been much more willing to eat salary or trade assets to move players they don't think fit the organization. I expect the Twins will aggressively shop Paddack, and they'll be willing to part with money from their international signing bonus pool to get it done. -
David Festa Sure Looks Like a Major-League Starter
bean5302 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Considering Gray was on record as saying the Twins checked all the boxes in regard to what he was looking for and he certainly presented his experience in Minnesota highly favorably. https://www.mlb.com/news/sonny-gray-on-possible-future-with-twins-before-hitting-free-agency -
The Positive Spin On Max Kepler's Impending Departure
bean5302 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Royce Lewis didn't want to play 2B, either, but I assume there's less hate for him actually being on public record about that. Interestingly enough, despite making it public he didn't want to play 2B, the Twins shoved him over there anyway. The entire source of Max Kepler's unwillingness to play center field seems to stem from Gleeman's insider info that Kepler feels like he wears out and breaks down more while playing CF consistently. Kepler, like pretty much all players, prefers to play a static position. I have never seen another source or a single comment from Kepler in regard to him playing CF nor have I ever found a source where Kepler refused or resisted a push to play CF. Of course we never see Kepler in CF anymore, but that undoubtedly has a lot more to do with Kepler not being the speedy runner he was at age 25 anymore. It's been more than a year or two since Kepler had the speed which is really necessary to cover CF effectively so it feels unlikely the Twins would want him to cover CF anyway. Kepler last posted a sprint speed of 28.0 (which is about the bare minimum for a CF'er) or higher in 2020, and right about where Austin Martin runs. These days, Kepler's sprint speeds are under even 27ft/sec, which is below average for even a corner outfielder. Max Kepler has been a solid starter for the Twins for a long time. He hasn't been an inconsistent producer, either. Outside of 1 year (2019), Kepler has never produced less than 1.6 fWAR or more than 2.8 fWAR in any full MLB season during his career, though he certainly looks like a guy in the twilight of his MLB experience. He's basically been a league average-ish bat with great corner OF defense almost every year, but he's clearly in decline at this point. No longer a speedy or plus defensive player, it all comes down to his bat, which isn't a plus at Target Field at least. Not sure why the Twins weren't able to move him over the past two seasons, when they should have been looking to move him, but this should be his last year in a Twins uniform. He's been a good player on a franchise which has historically been a farm team for larger market teams. I'm sure he'll find a 1 year $6-8MM deal somewhere around the league at this point. Maybe a bit more if his bat heats up to end the season.- 26 replies
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- max kepler
- trevor larnach
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Kyle Farmer has played 4 complete games at 1B in his entire MLB career, all of them in 2019. He's not a first baseman. The ball should have been caught, but even if it wasn't, no way that ball should have gotten past him from the view I saw. Miranda hasn't played much 1B this year, but he's got a dozen or so games there this year. He couldn't move to 1B because he was a DH so the pitcher would have to bat, and that could have meant pulling Ober after 6 innings for a pinch hitter if the Twins got a couple base runners in the top of the 7th. Julien has a handful of games at 1B in AAA this year, but he wasn't available to move to 1B because Baldelli pulled him for Castro who struck out for Julien. When you don't have any available 1B depth on the roster so why do you pinch hit? Baldelli's call to replace Ober makes no sense to me. His average velocity wasn't really falling off with his slowest fastballs coming in the 3rd and 5th innings. He was only at 84 pitches and he was totally in control of the Royals' lineup. When you have a pitcher dominating like that, you do not pull them unless there is an injury concern (velocity dropping or exceeding pitch count limit where you expect they should be tired). Relying on what has been a very shaky bullpen in a close game against a divisional rival in a playoff chase vs. a pitcher who is absolutely cruising? Nonsense.
- 142 replies
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- dashawn keirsey jr
- edouard julien
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I seem to constantly see comments from people who are advocates for stronger defense praising Carlos Santana and Christian Vazquez. Two balls bounced off the glove of Vazquez this game. A pick off bounces off the glove of Santana. All of them are "throwing errors." I guarantee you those are all "fielding errors" if the ball came off a bat and not a throwing hand. It seems to be my "eye test" which has me feeling like Santana and Vazquez get the benefit of not needing to catch balls that hit their gloves, and especially for Santana, he'll never come off 1B to prevent a ball from sailing wide. He lets the throws sail wide because it doesn't impact his defensive numbers, and the runner advances to 2B on the "throwing error." Vazquez was trying to catch runners stealing 2nd when a base runner was on 3rd seemingly time and again only to allow runs to score. I really don't see the elite defense other people do.
- 56 replies
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- louis varland
- carlos santana
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Resetting Expectations for Carlos Correa
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Because ownership was expected to make a knee jerk 180* reversal on how they want to fund the franchise? The Correa signing is how teams win World Series' -
I think Rodriguez could potentially break camp with the Twins out of Spring Training next year at the earliest. Minnesota desperately needs a center fielder.
- 18 replies
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- emmanuel rodriguez
- walker jenkins
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Resetting Expectations for Carlos Correa
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Does not require spending. My offseason plan had the Twins trading assets to Boston to get Jarren Duran, my backup was Wilyer Abreu. Falvey had anywhere from $20-40MM of salary to spend depending on how he handled the offseason. He got caught sleeping behind the wheel yet again, let the buyers fill their baskets and there was no demand left for guys he should have moved, and no payroll capacity left for positions he needed to fill. -
Resetting Expectations for Carlos Correa
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I mean, who could possibly anticipate Buxton not putting in a 150 games? -
It's always interesting watching how people explain phenomenon. Vazquez is a poor hitter who had even worse luck out of the gate. His luck is reversing. It's not like he's hitting balls harder or something. The "toe tap" might have helped a little, but it hasn't changed him. Jeffers is an average hitter who had things really go his way out of the gate. He's definitely changed his approach in a manner similar to Larnach. Swinging more than ever has cost him a 30% reduction in walks, but Jeffers is making dramatically more contact high in the zone. Overall, he's an improved hitter.
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Resetting Expectations for Carlos Correa
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
They really do. Some of the best teams in MLB have suffered far worse than the Twins in terms of injuries this year. -
LOL, dude hasn't played a single at bat in AA in 3 months, where he only has 167 PA anyway.
- 18 replies
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- emmanuel rodriguez
- walker jenkins
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He absolutely needs to show the power. An article earlier this year was praising his exit velocity which maxed at like 106? Impressive for a high school draft pick for sure, but Jenkins' body was hardly "high school" sized, and not really up to MLB standards. It's clear Jenkins has adopted a much more aggressive approach at the plate in high A as his BB rate has evaporated. I think we're seeing the flashes of his potential as he tries to hone his game before final polishing. Hopefully, as he moves forward he'll better learn his swing/take profile, but I'm really happy with what I'm seeing right now. A far more impressive prospect than he was a couple months ago in my eyes.
- 18 replies
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- emmanuel rodriguez
- walker jenkins
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Resetting Expectations for Carlos Correa
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
https://www.dior.com/en_us/fashion/couture-boutique-advantages I think we're past 30 days. Do you have the receipt? -
Side note, he's going to have to learn he cannot carry the team. The guy needs to learn his limits as a human. I think that pertains to him in the field and at the plate. I don't think he's totally bought into that yet. Did a heck of a job last year in the playoffs, despite his results vs Houston not being stellar, he was one of 2 hitters who actually made the Astros pitchers throw strikes (Correa, Lewis). The rest of the Twins hitters swung at anything and everything.

