bean5302

Well, the latest updates make it clear Correa isn't close to coming back. I wouldn't count on him until September. Still day to day on how his foot feels, and he's not comfortable running back to back days yet. Correa's not going to even slated for a rehab assignment until he can run day after day with no discomfort the next day. The Twins appear to be taking a very cautious approach here trying to fully cure the plantar fasciitis? In any case, there's pretty much no way we see him until September.

It's worth noting his "rough season" is still wRC+ 91 for a 2B and a 1.6 WAR full season pace.

Could be the case if there are no other injuries. I don't know if the 40 man roster spot is all that hard to free up at this point.

MLB hitters miss pitches which move in a way they don't expect or target a zone their swing isn't good at reaching. The average MLB hitter makes contact with only about 85% of pitches they swing at in the zone. Of course, pitches outside of the zone have a lower contact rate at only about 65% of the time. The problem with pitching outside the zone is hitters only swing at 30% of pitches outside the zone. So, 70% of the time the pitcher is out of the strike zone, it's going to be called a ball. A pitcher can visit, but they can't live there. 15% of the time a ball in the zone is a called strike, and 15% of the time the hitter misses the pitch altogether. Another big chunk are foul balls, plus the number of times a ball put into play is just an out. Successful MLB pitches live mostly in or at the edge of the strike zone. A couple of the Cy Young favorites this year and their percentage of pitches which land in the strike zone. Chris Sale (54%) and Tarik Skubal (57%)

A hamstring pull in April cannot be legitimately blamed for production at the plate in August. Jenkins is just raw, and he'll need more time.

Vazquez's exit velo, hard hit rates, etc. haven't improved as the season progressed. His ability to roll doubles and land on free parking have. Early in the season, Vazquez was rolling doubles 3 times in a row sending him straight to jail without the ability to buy properties. He was landing on spaces like Luxury Tax a lot, too. Now, he's getting doubles only once or twice and he's landing on Community Chest more than Chance, which was cruel to him.

Severino became very limited at 2B as he gained size and lost mobility. Originally, he was signed out of the Dominican by the Braves to be a 2B, and the Twins even experimented with him at SS after we were able to grab him when the Braves were forced to forfeit him for violating league rules. He could probably work at 3B as it's reported he has a strong arm, but he's blocked right now. I think the Twins will probably call him up when rosters expand. He'll certainly be in the mix with Payton Eeles for a call up IMHO.

The Twins would have called Keirsey up if they believed he'd be valuable at the MLB level. Martin and Keirsey have similar skill sets, and while Martin is a RHB, if the Twins felt Keirsey was a better player than Martin, I think they would have called Keirsey's number. Keirsey's defensive metrics look awfully similar to Austin Martin's, his base running value, too. But Martin has superior OBP skills, he's younger, and he has a better scouting pedigree. Keirsey hasn't been good since his return from the IL in June. .249/.317/.367 OPS .684, ISO .119, 8.0% BB, 23.6% K, wRC+ 78 over his past 177 plate appearances in AAA. He wasn't good in 2022 at AA at age 25. He wasn't good in 2023 at AAA at age 26. It's hard enough for younger players with consistent good performances in the high minors to translate that to value at the plate at the MLB level, let alone inconsistent production from older non top prospect players.

Julien needs to swing more at the MLB level. I do think there's a mental component involved, but pitchers have always eaten him up inside. Julien mirrors the past version of Larnach and former Twins prospect Aaron Hicks in a lot of ways. Passive at the plate. Wait for mistake pitches. Depending on how bad the mistake needs to be, the outcome varies. Larnach adjusted his approach and while his BB rate tanked by about 50%, he's been much more effective overall. From maybe a tick below league average to 10% above league average. Julien's got more potential, IMHO as he isn't quite so extreme on his splits against pitches as Larnach, and Julien handles a much more valuable position. Julien was riding the razor's edge on sustainable positive outcome last year, and he started off really well again this year. Honestly, the Twins pulled the plug on him pretty quickly, but with Jose Miranda hitting like he was, it was between Kirilloff and Julien. Julien is the much more valuable player and more likely to be part of the franchise in the future so the Twins chose to invest in Julien being able to make adjustments. That said, the demotion clearly came as a shock to him. He wasn't going to be allowed to work on stuff at the MLB level, and he was quickly demoted again in July in favor of Brooks Lee, despite Lee hitting very poorly and not having Julien's track record. I'm sure that was a strong message. Until Julien buys into the philosophy of doing what you can with what you've got to work with (swinging more), he's not going to be effective at this point. I'm not sure a couple plate appearances is enough to convince me he's done that.

Jenkins has been ahead of Rodriguez since the moment he was drafted, basically. That said, Jenkins' results aren't impressive to me. Highly concerning how his plate performance dropped off a lot after his return to A ball after last year's SSS, and even more, his BB rate has evaporated at A+ ball so far. Jenkins is clearly more raw than people expected at the end of last year. Still plenty of time for Jenkins to surge up production this year, and he's a19 in A+ ball like most of his peers coming out of the 2023 draft.

Jax has pitched to 211 batters this year. Ober's pitched to 529 batters this year. Every plate appearance has the chance to change the outcome of a game. Unlike Jax, virtually every time Ober takes the mound for his first inning, the game is wide open for a team to win or lose. In many of Jax's appearances, it doesn't matter who is on the mound as the game is already decided. You can argue back and forth on how they compare, but Ober's contributions throughout the year have meant more to the Twins winning or losing games than Jax's have in a statistical evaluation. There are decent pitchers in the bullpen behind Jax, too.

Lots of comments about the ump, but they did really well for Matthews to start the game. Couple bad calls against Arraez and an early one against Bogaerts in the 3rd. Not a routine catch for Matthews with an 85mph throw shifting behind him from 15ft away, but one he needs to make at first base. Overall, not a terrible game pitched by Matthews, but not a great one. Gotta generate more swings and misses.

The hitters in MLB are generally pretty good. Sometimes they hit stuff, even in locations which are normally tough to do much with, like the very outside edge of the plate where Matthews put that pitch. I still remember Eddie Rosario tomahawking a home run on a pitch which felt like it was nearly over his head and 2 feet out of the strike zone. In the case of the changeup to Merrill, I do think that was a poor call. Location and pitch type. He hits changeups really well, and the location was in a spot he does well. Needed to have the pitch much lower in that spot.

Emmanuel Rodriguez sure looked great in his short healthy stint at AA. There will be other players who tear the cover off the ball through the end of this year or pitch lights out. I don't think Rodriguez climbs the charts that high.

Reaggravated his thumb again. Surgery not expected. Basically, the whole thing looks like he sprained his thumb, tried to play through it and really sprained it bad on a slide into 2nd base. It got better, he played in a couple rehab games, but it flared back up. Just trying to push the injury too hard I guess. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-emmanuel-rodriguez-aggravates-thumb-strain/ It is getting a little sketchy on the length of time the sprain is taking to heal. Wonder if there's some structural damage?

Considering what we've heard from Duran, it's unlikely Alcala does much of his own pitch calling. Jeffers is apparently using a middle-middle target technique on glove placement to get more strikes. Tavaras - First pitch .410 xwOBA (worst spot to throw) vs. changeup -3. Second pitch .323 (avg. spot to throw) vs. fastball -8. Tavaras struggles to hit fastballs, and the pitch he got a hold of was in a spot he's not strong this year. Good pitch. Semien - Only pitch .293 xwOBA (okay zone, but too high, too close to middle/middle where he's .411 xwOBA) vs. fastball +7. Throwing Semien a fastball was a poor choice. Semien is like Larnach in his ability to rake 4 seamers. Not keeping it further away from middle/middle was also bad. Terrible pitch. Seagar - Only pitch .580 xwOBA (terrible spot. Absolutely must stay out of the middle for Seager) vs. changeup +3. Seager is strong against most pitches this year, historically, the changeup has given him a bit of difficulty. He's consistently bad against sliders. Terrible pitch. Garcia - 1st pitch .195 xwOBA (okay spot. weak zone for Garcia, but too far out.) vs. fastball -8. 2nd pitch (okay spot, too low after the first pitch was so far out of the zone) vs. sinker -4. 3rd pitch .357 xwOBA (poor location, Garcia has hit pitches up there quite well) vs. fastball -8. 2-0 fastball outside the zone, but still in a spot Garcia hits well is a bad pitch. I can go on, I suppose, but it seems like pretty poor pitch selection and poor locations. Not sure who made the pitch calls or where they asked Alcala to put the balls, but if Alcala put them where he was asked, the person calling the game needs some better memory on scouting.

We've got 25% of the season left to go. 40 games still out there waiting to be played so it's too early for MVP discussions, especially for a relief pitcher. All it takes is a couple bad games and Jax's numbers would fall off dramatically; it's the fate of the relief pitcher to play in such a precarious spot. Even if they continued, could a non-closer relief pitcher be justified as a team MVP? Probably not. Willi Castro, Carlos Correa, and Bailey Ober are in the discussion for me, with Jax well behind them. Of course, Jax is having a tremendous season and is putting himself into a heck of a position for arbitration right now. I projected him at $3MM, but he could easily eclipse that mark by a lot. The arbitration estimator published on Fangraphs suggests Jax would hit the $5MM mark at this pace (on pace for 2.3 fWAR, or 2.8 bWAR). The record for a first year arbitration reliever was Papelbon at $6.5MM back in 2009, and Jax is having a similar season to Papelbon's 2008, but Jax isn't deployed as a closer, and he doesn't have the elite history Papelbon had.

Why would the Twins tender Kirilloff a contract when they could non-tender him and sign him to a MiLB contract? I can't see any team knocking on Kirilloff's door with anything other than a MiLB offer. The whole "when he's healthy" argument doesn't hold up to even the slightest scrutiny. As if the Twins rolled Kirilloff out into the batters box while he was in a wheelchair or something. Kirilloff had a sore back and underwent an MRI on 5/26. So he must have been injured at that time, right? Oh, but 5/22-5/29 he couldn't have been injured because he hit .375/.444/.750 OPS 1.194 wRC+ 233. It was 5/31 and later when he was actually hurt, after the MRI was clean because he didn't hit well. Kirilloff is a below average hitter at the MLB level. Last year was nothing more than a little luck with his .375 BABIP against RHP floating him.

It was a joke. People seem to have this image of me running around throwing weed killer on the neighbors flowers and peeing on the clothes they hung out, but I don't do those things, either.

Payton Eeles should definitely be in everybody's top 20 Twins prospects at this point, and he's sure making a good case he deserves a top 10 spot. Decent pop, good speed, and he doesn't commit a lot of errors since the Twins coaches didn't have enough time to teach him how to slap down line drives with a closed glove and kick grounders around properly. To see him need no time to adjust to the drastic ramp up in talent he was playing against is a real treat. The Twins should have him up in September.

Image is of Kaelen Culpepper, I'm pretty sure. Just in case people are wondering.

Yeah. I do not see Paddack making another start for the Twins this year. The fact he's not even getting considered for a full effort ramp up, let alone a rehab assignment until the results of an MRI scheduled 2 weeks out is reviewed tells me he's a mid September return at the earliest. He hasn't even begun a throwing program, apparently? So say things come back all nice and pretty and the Twins clear Paddack for a throwing program, he might get a couple bullpen sessions done by early September. If everything looks good, he'd get cleared for a rehab assignment where he's almost certainly be a bullpen arm. Having not pitched for 2 months at that point, he'd need at least 2-3 bullpen appearances before the Twins would call him back up which could maybe happen maybe a few days before a 60 day IL timeframe. No way he gets stretched out in time for more than a single regular season start.

That'd be pretty unheard of for an amount like $7.5MM, but even if the Twins did have a policy for Paddack, they'd be insured for maybe 50-80% of his salary. Plus, the premiums of Paddack would be huge because of his injury history. In fact, based on his small salary and injury history, he's probably uninsurable.

Vazquez's $10MM salary was a major constraint on the ability to sign desired free agents or upgrade positions on the 26 man roster based on the budget set by ownership. Does that adjustment quell your need for your semantics argument?

Kirilloff, if totally shielded from LHP, could be a "little above average bat" playing DH. He's Arb 2. 100% non-tender. Kirilloff did not hide his injury. He was actively being treated for his injury. I could see the Twins bringing him back on a MiLB contract, though as I don't expect any team in MLB will be willing to give him an MLB contract. What Kirilloff did was put the team in a bit of a bind by responding to his demotion to AAA by stating his pain level had gotten worse to the point he wasn't able to play normally. This forced the Twins to reverse their option transaction, move him to the 15 day IL and re-shuffle the roster. I don't know him personally. Might be a really great guy, but his on the field performance has never warranted a roster spot. Even his breakout 2023 campaign, which was floated by a .337 BABIP (.374 BABIP vs RHP) still had Kirilloff projecting at an uninspiring 1.0 WAR full season (150 games) level.