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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Viola vs. Santana would be an interesting debate. Santana probably has the edge, but Viola isn't as far out of the conversation on a career basis.
  2. bean5302
    The results of the average pitcher throwing 95mph instead of 80-85mph. Stress on the body is directly related to the velocity.
  3. bean5302
    ...and just like that, Lewis pulls a hammy.
  4. bean5302
    Brooks Lee has pretty much just made the opening day roster. Royce Lewis pulled his hamstring running to 1B. Looked pretty bad.
  5. bean5302
    I think Brooks Lee just made the roster as the opening day 3B. That was a big strain judging on Lewis' reaction. My guess is he's not back before the beginning of June and that's also my answer on whether or not his lower body has healed. Terrible news, but not terribly unexpected.
  6. bean5302
    If selected to be part of the 26 man, nobody has more pressure on them to produce than Eddie Julien IMHO. Royce Lewis - What I want to see is a sprint speed in that 28.0+ range along with results at the plate. Is his lower body healed up? Has he regained the athleticism? I think the biggest question for Lewis is defense. Baldelli will have him on a short leash at 3B (for better or worse). I'm not at all concerned about Matt Wallner or Byron Buxton.
  7. bean5302
    It's interesting how so many people have decided Brooks Lee has a lot defensive value despite his poor range and weak arm. Brooks Lee was not good defensively last year. Like at all. Lee might make the opening day roster, but I think Julien will get the spot with Lee struggling a bit at the plate. I don't want to see Lee on the MLB roster until mid year after the debacle which was last year's plate performance where he was substantially worse than Julien over the season.
  8. bean5302
    Bert Blyleven was the best. In terms of value added lifetime or in a single season or even in a 3 consecutive year stint meant to favor Santana, Blyleven barely eeks out another victory. 1973 - 9.7 bWAR Blyleven 2004 - 8.7 bWAR Santana Radke was not a "steady presence." He was an elite pitcher who retired at age 33, and he had a shot at the HoF if he hadn't decided to pitch a season with, literally, a broken shoulder. Radke had 3 consecutive seasons over 5 bWAR including 2 over 6 bWAR. From Radke's bWAR peak across 1998-2000, there were 3 pitchers who were better in bWAR in all MLB. Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Kevin Brown. Nobody else. Not even Greg Maddux. Even using Fangraphs, Radke is #9 in MLB for fWAR from 1997-2001. The pitchers above Radke during that era? Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettite. That's it. Not a single one of them has less than 60 career bWAR and all of them are HoF worthy in terms of production. Guys below Radke? David Wells, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and all of then pitched years and years after 2001 just in case you're thinking they were in the last couple years of their careers. Radke deserves way more respect than he gets. He was one of the greatest pitchers to ever play. I'd retire Radke's number before Santana.
  9. bean5302
    Taller players will generally have a longer reach. How many times will a 1" greater reach prevent an error or result in an out? Once per year, maybe? UZR/150 for all 28 players with 1,000+ innings at 1B in the past two years. Highest = +3.7 (6'1" Michael Bush) Lowest = -5.3 (6'0" Spencer Torkleson) #2 - 6'4" #3 - 6'0" #4 - 6'0" There is no merit in selecting "tall" players for 1B in terms of defensive value.
  10. bean5302
    SkyLab clearly wouldn't have fallen from orbit if it had been pumping roids.
  11. bean5302
    Holds pretty true. The White Sox combined for -6.3 WAR for position players (puke). Their pitching staff was also poor, but not so hysterically bad at +9.8 WAR.
  12. bean5302
    The article addressed the Twins: I have no idea what the writer is talking about, though. It seems like he's just kind of looking at names and deciding which ones he likes/recognizes. I can't imagine what depth the Twins could possibly have needed to add to the rotation. I could understand if the article was specifically about rotations, and ceiling of the rotation. The Twins are ranked #6 in MLB for rotation projection, but they're also 0.5 WAR away from being #11.
  13. bean5302
    Why do you think 3B is the natural position for a guy with a weak arm and limited range? Because the Twins asked him to play there as part of their depth jockey game? Honestly, Miranda would be a better fit at 2B than 3B (same exact athleticism profile as Brooks Lee). The front office chose the all bat, no defense design as what they wanted, but aside from that, what does Miranda's play at 3B have to do with playing him at 1B? Btw, Miranda doesn't strike out much. He's in the top 15% of all hitters with 400+ PA. Miranda is like a Luis Arraez with a little less hit tool and a little more pop.
  14. bean5302
    I have many issues with WAR / Salary, but the biggest is low production has a net drag on a team's playoff chances. If you sign a $6.0 MM player and they produce 1.0 WAR, you can claim it was a good deal because the average free agent cost per WAR is $8.0MM. But do you really want a starting position player generating 1.0 WAR? Consider... AAA replacement team 45 wins 117 losses record expected 9 batters at 2.5 WAR = 22.5 5 rotation at 2.0 WAR = 10.0 8 bullpen at 0.5 WAR = 4.0 4 bench at 1.0 WAR = 4.0 Total = 40.5 WAR = 85.5 wins. This is a general guideline for what you need from players to field a bare minimum playoff caliber team. WAR production under the guidelines means another player has to carry the team for the weaker performance. The truth is, in terms of production a 1.0 WAR $6MM starter is a net drag on the team, and finding 1.0 WAR players is easy AF. They're available every year on the waiver wire or for MiLB contracts. I'd say a scale like this would be better. 1.0 WAR = $1MM 1.5 WAR = $4MM 2.0 WAR = $12MM 2.5 WAR = $15MM 3.0 WAR = $20MM 3.5 WAR = $25MM 4.0 WAR = $30MM 4.5 WAR = $35MM 5.0 WAR = $40MM I'd like to see an analysis where free agents were compared by production in brackets to see what free agents for any given quality were costing.
  15. bean5302
    Bader is going to play every day, I suspect. He'll take PA away from Larnach and Wallner on a regular basis except when Buxton is hurt or resting at DH. Baldelli has shown a desire to shield Larnach from LHP to the extreme, less extreme with Wallner.
  16. bean5302
    I'm pretty sure it's a compression sleeve on his right arm. Polanco used to play with one all the time.
  17. bean5302
    The Twins haven't typically gone top shelf FA's, but they've added a LOT of top shelf talent in recent years through extensions, trades and signings. Josh Donaldson Carlos Correa x2 Sonny Gray Byron Buxton Pablo Lopez All those guys were considered pretty high end and the Twins either extended their team control, traded for them with multiple years of control or signed them as free agents under multi-year deals. When it comes to low cost, one year additions, the Twins have gotten okay value for the contracts themselves, and they've flipped value as well. Lets be frank at how valuable these players have REALLY been. Carlos Santana worked out great. Michael A Taylor was solid, but nothing special. Joey Gallo and Andrelton Simmons were net negatives, though maybe Simmons' $10.5MM deal eclipses low cost thresholds.
  18. bean5302
    Sure, if it makes you feel better, Gasper only played 33% or whatever at catcher. I'd be surprised if he got regular time at catcher for the Twins, too. Not really the point. The point is Vazquez isn't an MLB caliber catcher, he's likely going to provide negative value this year so replacing him with a AAA caliber player isn't a net loss, and we have 4 potential options to choose from. If the Twins can't get -0.5 to 0.5 WAR (the reasonable range for Vazquez) out of one of those 4 players at catcher then that's a totally different issue. I was on board with the Twins can't trade Vazquez when it was only Winkour and Camargo as AAA depth. Now that the Twins have added Gasper and Cartaya, it's a non issue.
  19. bean5302
    Miranda will be above average at 1B. He was better than average in 2022 by the only advanced defensive metric anybody should be using in SSS (UZR), and he was far above average last year in a SSSS. OAA/DRS are ridiculously unstable.
  20. bean5302
    Target Field (and most ballparks) are not owned by the teams. They're mostly owned by a county/city for many reasons. The residential zoned buildings immediately surrounding the stadiums are often the target for sports franchise owners because of the value appreciation. Since the owners don't usually keep the properties, t's not all that helpful do depreciate the low value purchased property asset in year 1 only to turn around and eat gargantuan tax gains when the owner sells the now much more valuable property to a developer in year 2 or 3 after the stadium is built. When it comes to the Twins, certainly there is some additional write down opportunity at stake, but I wouldn't think it'll be a significant factor in the sale of the franchise. If the Pohlad family was desperate, the team would have already been sold. The sale of the Minnesota Twins is undoubtedly to free up additional liquidity for the family to diversify their holdings, but it doesn't appear to be critical. The Twins expanded the payroll this year as further evidence of the lack of a crisis. Furthermore, MLB looks at team finances on a regular basis and requires a level of safety and liquidity to be in place. If the team doesn't have the liquidity, MLB will force team payrolls down (Padres) or outright force an owner to sell (Mets).
  21. bean5302
    Gasper is a catcher. He's played half his games in the minors as a catcher. You might not consider him as adept behind the plate as any of the other Twins' catchers, but if Gasper was incapable of covering the position, he would have been playing there for 50%+ of his games for the past 10 years through college and MiLB. I'll trust projection models run by professional analysts over your personal opinion, but you're right, it's not the place to compare your personal opinion to data models when it comes to reliability.
  22. bean5302
    Miranda 2022 483 PA - wRC+ 116 2023 152 PA - wRC+ 56 (off season shoulder surgery) 2024 429 PA - wRC+ 115 2025 Last chance, buddy! Every month better be way above average or else! The reality is Ty France is almost certain to be handed the every day 1B job by Baldelli. Miranda's going to have a real hard time proving he's the 1B of the future unless he's allowed to play there.
  23. bean5302
    AAA+ Twins catcher depth: Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez, Jair Camargo, Diego Cartaya, Mickey Gasper, Patrick Winkel. Here are the ZiPS projections for the catchers .748 OPS .744 OPS .667 OPS .615 OPS .599 OPS <--- Vazquez .586 OPS Here are the Steamer projections for the catchers .741 .717 .636 <--- Vazquez .608 .607 .602 So yeah, based on the Twins' catching depth and projection models, it would be reasonable to conclude .575 would be a fair worst case scenario, and it would also be fair to expect any or all of the catching options the Twins could choose out of AAA or MLB would be at least comparable to Vazquez at the plate. Hedges is not on the Twins' roster.
  24. bean5302
    If we reversed the projections on Larnach and Wallner, I think I mostly agree. Both Buxton and Bader have long injury histories, and honestly, Larnach has his own durability issue history. Buxton will not play more than 60-80 games in CF this year. It's just not going to happen. Bader probably will miss 50 games this year based on recent seasons. If Bader is out at the same time Buxton is out, which is fairly likely, we'll see a substantial drop off in CF defense. Bader last 4 seasons injury history 2021 - April 1 - 10 Day IL - Strained forearm, Missed 4 weeks 2021 - May 25 - 10 Day IL - Hairline rib fracture, missed 6 weeks 2022 - June 27 - 10 Day IL -> 60 Day IL - Right foot plantar fasciitis, missed 3 months 2023 - March 30 - 10 Day IL - Left oblique strain, missed 5 weeks 2023 - May 30 - 10 Day IL - Right hamstring strain, missed 3 weeks 2023 - Sep 18 - 10 Day IL - Right groin strain, missed 2 weeks 2024 - July 24 - Day to Day - Mild ankle sprain, missed 1 week. Overall, I think the OF defense for the Twins will be good this year, but how good will depend a lot on Buxton. Bader's going to play a lot. If Buxton defies all the odds and has another year like last year, Bader's going to be covering a lot of corner OF time and defense should be pretty epic.
  25. bean5302
    As of right now, I think this is how things will "probably" look. I think Martin will get the nod over Keirsey because Martin can play in the infield, but Baldelli may prefer to have an additional lefty option with his obsession on platooning. I suspect his is Martin's audition for replacing Castro. It's possible Lee could beat out Julien, but the Twins don't need Lee's switch hitting from the right side of the plate option this year. C - Jeffers (R) 1B - France (R) 2B - Julien (L) - 1 Option 3B - Lewis (R) - 2 Options SS - Correa (R) LF - Larnach (L) - 1 Option CF - Buxton (R) RF - Wallner (L) - 1 Option DH - Miranda (R) - 1 Option UO - Bader (R) UI/O - Martin (R) - 2 Options UI/O - Castro (S) BC - Vazquez (R) I expect guys like Gasper and Keirsey to be injury replacement depth.
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