bean5302

Kirilloff has a flatter, line drive swing like Joe Mauer or Trevor Larnach, not a loftier, fly ball swing which leads to home runs like Matt Wallner. Kirilloff's power has not been sapped by wrist injury, it was never a thing to begin with. 2016 - Rookie Ball ISO = .148 2017 - Tommy John surgery 2018 - A-Ball ISO = .274 2018 - A+ ISO = .188 2019 - AA ISO = .131 2020 - N/A 2021 - MLB ISO = .172 If you look at Kirilloff's stops along the way, he only demonstrated plus game power in A-Ball back in 2018. Nowhere else did Kirilloff show plus power. This is similar to Trevor Larnach's junior year at Oregon after which the Twins drafted him or Joe Mauer's burst of power in 2009. The hype machine has always spun at 10,000rpm for Kirilloff. I don't think there's any question Kirilloff gets non-tendered, and I don't think the Twins will pursue negotiating even a league minimum offer after non-tendering him. They might bring him back on a MiLB deal, but it's possible a team out there gives Kirilloff a 1yr league minimum.

The answer to the question of why relievers get pigeon-holed includes players suggesting they want to be pigeon-holed. Emotions are relevant impact baseball on and off the field, and regardless of whether or not you think relief pitchers should just be robots, they've said they're not. 1. Humans like routine, and baseball players are human. It's not just relief pitchers; there are many quotes every year about players wanting to play a specific position or wanting a specific role like a starter wanting to pitch deeper into games and how a specific role impacts them mentally or physically in their preparation. 2. Players like to get paid, and the "save" stat is used to determine pitcher compensation in arbitration, and the "closer" title gets relief pitchers dramatically larger contracts. 3. Teams and MLB also like closers because they're especially marketable. Now onto addressing your position about the value of relievers being used as soon as any high leverage situation presents itself (which is not something I've even talked about, though the strawman highway construction project in here that I didn't requisition or agree to purchase would suggest otherwise...) 4. The exact same scenario in the 5th inning and 9th inning present different leverage factors. The further into a tight game you get, the more impact a relief pitcher's performance can have on the game. i.e. you use your best reliever in the 6th inning out of desperation. If the exact same scenario exists in the 9th inning, the 9th inning scenario is much higher leverage, but you have to go to your mediocre reliever. Additionally, you could find yourself in a much higher leverage scenario in the later innings. If it's an absolute must win game, you have to roll the dice in the 6th inning with your closer because you don't know what will happen in the future, but it's a gamble. Over the course of a 162 game season, there's a fair chance the house wins at predicting the future vs. waiting until you know for certain you have high leverage and your team is very likely to win. Reserving your best pitchers for when the game is on the line is theoretically reasonable. If the Twins were to deploy Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in a 1 run game in the 5th and 6th inning and the 9th rolls around with the game tied and the Twins put Steven Okert in to close it resulting in walk off Twins loss, I suspect both of you would absolutely lose your minds about how Baldelli "wasted" Jax and Duran. That's just me speculating, though. Using Cleveland as the example, I'd suggest the way Cleveland played the entire year is more relevant to the regular season usage of pitchers than a short, must-win, risky playoff series. Throughout the year, the best bullpen in baseball (as you put it, @chpettit19) was deployed with a fairly dedicated closer (47 saves led AL) and fairly dedicated setup guy (33 holds) and most of the time, it was Gaddis who immediately preceded Clase.

Did some numbers on that not too long ago. It probably depends on what Kepler does after his career is over since he didn't win any major awards, and wasn't part of a World Series team or anything like that. He's in that Koskie, Dozier, Smalley range for production; none of whom are HoF'ers for the Twins right now. He's also in striking distance of Justin Morneau, but Morneau was a superstar with the Twins where he won an MVP, and he was a fan favorite in addition to being been heavily involved with the Twins since his retirement. Torii Hunter is well above Kepler in production, in addition to being the face of the franchise for quite a while, and that's before he came back for a swan song, and got involved with the team post-retirement as well. If Kepler just rides off into the sunset, which seems more in line with his personality he's shown so far, I'd say he's a long shot. If he comes back to the Twins in a major capacity post retirement, he'll likely get in.

Find some quotes to that effect. The quotes I've seen from pitchers is they prefer some form of routine. Aside from that, I don't think I've ever seen anybody advocate for anything other than setup/closer roles. I'm not advocating for anything; just repeating what pitchers have talked about in the press.

Statcast ranks his "caught stealing" at -3 runs vs. average in 2024 for runners trying to steal 2B. A lot goes into whether or not teams attempt to steal bases, and the overall CS vs. SB, whether or not an attempt to throw was even made, etc. Vazquez's numbers are poor because his arm is very weak. His pop time and exchange is good to great, but his arm just doesn't have the juice, ranking 50th of 63 catchers in MLB rated by Statcast.

I suspect none of these guys are in the budget if Jax and Duran return. Between the two, that's about $8MM in bullpen expenses. Falvey seems to like his bullpen below $15MM total.

People are human with stress factors and emotions which get mixed into their thought processes. Joe Nathan talked about not wanting to close because of confidence issues when he returned from TJ. There is extra pressure associated with closing. It's all on the pitcher, no chances to come back, etc. Many pitchers have talked about the added stress of closing or the benefits of knowing their position and their job rather than just being tossed around in the bullpen and never knowing what's coming next.

If the front office feels Prielipp needs to be restricted at high school inning levels (55-60 innings) even in good health, I don't see the Twins working him out as a starter at all. Since the Twins had Prielipp starting and pitching multiple innings last year, it doesn't suggest they see him that way. He is not a 2-3 pitch mix guy. He's a 3 pitch guy with all three profiling as potential plus offerings which is why the Twins want him to start. A good starter is worth 3-4x as much as a good reliever. I don't think we're going to find any common ground on the rest of your arguments.

If Prielipp remains healthy. If Prielipp absolutely dominates AA through the All Star break If Prielipp gets promoted to AAA soon after that If Prielipp then dominates AAA into September If Prielipp impresses the coaching staff and front office with his stuff, as much as his results If Prielipp is approaching his innings limit If Prielipp isn't wearing down at that point and if the Twins are in a position where they're coasting (either way out of the playoffs or way in) or the Twins aren't desperate for an arm Then, yes, Prielipp might be in the 'pen for Minnesota. ...that's a lot of ifs, and the results part is certainly not guaranteed for a guy who has just 23 innings at A+, and that was more than he's pitched in a season since high school in 2019. My hopes for Prielipp is a healthy season where he can earn a promotion to AAA and exceed 80 innings. That would be an incredibly successful season already.

Keeping Canterino on the 40 man says as much about the Twins' system as it does Canterino.

You should go and play the lottery. People win it all the time!

I don't think Festa will ever be an efficient starter. He doesn't have any pitches which are truly "plus" right now in regard to movement and velocity, and he doesn't have a big mix of offerings to keep hitters off their toes so playing too much in the zone is going to get his stuff hard launched around the ballpark. He's got a borderline plus pitch in his slider, and Festa's been able to locate and sequence his pitches to get whiffs outside the zone, and thereby avoid damage.

I don't know why the writers of this site create fringe narratives, and then push those narratives until they become accepted as fact or likely to happen scenarios. Connor Prielipp is not going to be in the bullpen next year. The Zebby Matthews scenario was so extreme, it actually brought an unranked prospect for the Twins??? to national attention. Guys don't go from A+ to MLB directly. Prielipp pitched 19.1 innings in Cedar Rapids last year. It wouldn't surprise me if he started the season off at Wichita next year, but we've seen how the Twins handle injury prone, high ceiling, young starting pitching prospects (Marco Raya). It's a slow build starting with 3.0 inning starts, just like we saw with Raya last year (and progressed to by Prielipp), and I suspect Prielipp will see 3.0 inning starts out of the gate this coming year, then start building to 4.0, then 5.0 inning starts with a pitch count limit of 50, then 60, then 80. Of course, the buildup only continues if he's able to stay healthy. It feels highly unlikely the Twins will reverse the approach and have Prielipp pitch 5.0 innings out of the gate, then swap him to the bullpen to limit his innings while simultaneously moving him through AA and AAA all the way to MLB along the way. That's assuming Prielipp doesn't have a hiccup against dramatically superior competition at AA or AAA. Prielipp in the Twins' bullpen seems so dramatically far fetched at least before the end of the season right now it doesn't even bear discussion, IMHO. Morris looks like a guy who could be a contributor to the rotation mid year, but I'm skeptical Raya is in that boat. Morris was solid at AAA, but his FIP/xFIP was in line with ace Randy Dobnak's. Competition at the AAA level turned quite a few Morris strikeouts into walks. Morris will need to improve his K rate or reduce his BB rate to project into the MLB rotation. I expect Matthews will start the season in AAA as well, and the Twins will probably be seeking to add a depth veteran arm (or two if they can move Paddack). Raya had major problems issuing the free pass towards the end of the season with his strikeout rate also dropping once Raya started getting the opportunity to pitch a little longer. I think he's still a big bullpen candidate even though the front office finally gave the green light to exceed 50-60 pitches.

The front office is responsible for evaluating talent, and they failed miserably. Period. Rooker would have been the best player on the Twins last year by a mile. The only situation Rooker needed was consistent plate appearances. The Padres had no room on the roster for Rooker so he was in AAA where he put up a wRC+ 137. The Royals thought they could pass Rooker through waivers despite his wRC+ 206 because of Rooker's age and reputation damage from the Twins view on him, deeming Rooker less valuable than AAAA studs like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff. The Twins already trashed Rooker's value by giving up on him too early (which just goes to show how valuable reputation and prospect rankings really are to a player).

Fastball avg = 95 Changeup avg = 88 Slider avg = 86 https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/david-festa-701581?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

100% agreement. It's part of the issue with all the "trade Vazquez" articles/posts. I really wish the Twins would have given Farmer some time behind the dish this spring since he was drafted as a catcher, and he was starting games at catcher just a few years ago. It might have really changed the situation.

Dennys Reyes? That's the only name that comes to mind.

The changeup is a pretty bad pitch as it doesn't move, and if he throws it for strikes, it'll end up in the outfield bleachers. He needs batters to continue to chase it out of the zone where they can't barrel it up. The slider is a good pitch and it might have a little ceiling left.

I just didn't understand what your argument was so I was seeking clarification. Camargo wasn't worthless because I think the Twins felt he was a known commodity amounting to "not a horrible option for a few weeks if Vazquez or Jeffers gets hurt and he doesn't cost us really anything" when everybody else the Twins had in the minors was "OMG, if we lose Camargo to Rule 5 somehow we're really in dire straights so we'll have to sign somebody for more money we don't have or trade assets to acquire a depth guy we trust enough, but don't really want to play" Camargo provides cheap insurance against a relatively short term injury and saves money or prospects to acquire depth. Hopefully just MiLB roster filler, but in a pinch, better than a catastrophe. You're right about how poorly the front office planned for catcher development.

No teams in MLB do this (probably for a host of reasons), and the commissioner is actively trying to implement rules to prevent this from ever happening. Having less than 5 days of rest for starters has also been correlated as a risk factor for injury. Considering the injury concern environment for MLB and pitching right now, I think this would be a very hard sell, before even considering the potential gains or losses in performance from the implementation. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39292010/ Conclusions: Starting pitchers on MLB teams averaging > 5 rest days between starts spent less time on the IL for MSK injuries than MLB teams averaging < 5 rest days from 2022 to 2023. There was no clinically significant difference in pitch count and no significant difference in the number of IL assignments for MSK injuries.

Christian Vazquez playing LF would have more than replaced Eddies production last year. It's real hard to get -2.0 WAR in just half a season, LOL.

Back to Festa. A lot of his projection depends on how much you believe in his changeup. Location probably isn't going to save him in general as he's already solid there. Location+ has him at 101 where MLB average is 100, and that's a major help already. Pitching Bot grades Festa's changeup as solid 54 on a 20-80 scouting scale, but it includes location, movement and other factors. The most important piece of Festa's changeup last year was making sure he did not throw it for a strike. Stuff+ isolates the pitch all on the physical attributes of the pitch compared to other pitch offerings Festa has, and it grades Festa's changeup at 72 where 100 is MLB average because the changeup has lousy movement. Based on what I've seen, on a 20-80 scouting scale, that's about a "35" which is borderline MLB caliber. Stuff+ grades Festa's fastball at 107 (50-55 grade or MLB average), and Festa's slider at 118 (55-60 grade, borderline plus) There were 156 starters who pitched at least 70 innings last year in MLB. The #10 (top), median (mid) and 10th worst (bottom) were added to Festa's results for reference. Data from Statcast, except first pitch strike. Source Fangraphs.com Festa's percentage of pitches in the zone was 47.5% - Top = 55.8%, Mid = 51.3%, Bottom = 46.5% "Balls" where batters swung was 32.1% - Top = 33.1%, Mid = 28.9%, Bottom = 24.1% "Strikes" where batters swung was 66.5% - Top = 61.5%, Mid = 66.1%, Bottom = 70.4% Outside zone contact rate was 54.1% - Top = 47.6%, Mid = 57.6%, Bottom = 68.1% In strike zone contact rate was 83.9% - Top = 80.8%, Mid = 86.3%, Bottom = 90.0% First pitch strike rate was 63.9% - Top = 72.9%, Mid = 63.0%, Bottom = 57.6% Festa's pitching profile, and how batters have reacted to it basically looks like this. Festa operates in the zone much less than most pitchers, but that has worked for him so far because batters swing (and miss) at Festa's offerings outside the zone well better than average. When Festa enters the strike zone, batters offer at his pitches at an average rate, but they still struggle to put the ball into fair territory relative to the average pitcher out there. Festa has been good with working ahead in the count right off the bat as well. Festa probably doesn't have much room for error as he is now. With Festa's changeup having poor movement or potential growth, it'll turn into a meatball if thrown in the zone as evidenced by the fact it has negative values despite being by far his best strikeout pitch. Festa's been successful with the pitch because batters have chased it well out of the zone with the limited scouting reports so far. Festa stands to gain a legitimate plus pitch with his slider if he's able to improve his feel for it. Right now, it's not as consistent as it should be in terms of total movement. Next year will be critical for him as it will likely determine whether or not he can hold his own as a starter or he's destined for the bullpen. If batters stop offering at Festa's changeup outside the zone, he's toast.

Kirilloff couldn't be swapped for a Snickers bar right now, let alone a legitimate, 25 year old starting pitcher. These "lets trade our garbage to another team for their quality stuff" is fascinating. As if the other team is run by a drooling, lobotomized, moron "Urrrhhhhhhh, you trade me bad at job no hitter always hurt man for cheap good start future man? You friend! We trade!" That's now how it works.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here? Camargo has never been a good hitter, and he's never been a good graded defender. Camargo was MiLB depth roster filler with some long-shot ceiling, a toss in in the Kenta Maeda trade. Even 2023's campaign. While the triple slash might look shiny, Camargo's .259/.323/.503 OPS .826 line was only good for a wRC+ 100 in the hitter friendly AAA International League. It also came with a 32% K rate. Camargo was considered a fringe 40 man guy, but Camargo was 23, the Twins had scarily thin MiLB depth at the position. If Camargo was at any other position or the Twins had any depth in the upper minors, Camargo doesn't get a 40 man spot. It was pure injury insurance against Jeffers or Vazquez going down for a month or two, no longer, no shorter. I think you've convinced yourself Jair Camargo was viewed as more than roster filler or short/medium term emergency depth in a very thin position. Had Jeffers or Vazquez gone down with an injury which would have put them on the 60 day IL, the Twins would have acquired a different catcher almost immediately, IMHO. Camargo was not viewed as a legit backup as evidenced by the fact the Twins shielded him from any playing time as much as possible.

Please stop just making stuff up. 1. Martin wasn't signed by the Twins. He was acquired with Simeon Woods Richardson in the trade of Jose Berrios. At the time, Martin was universally accepted as a top prospect. In fact, he ranked as a top 50 overall prospect in MLB. 2. Scouts were divided on whether Martin would wind up at 2B or CF long term. He was not considered a bad outfielder by anybody. 3. The Twins pushed Martin at SS hoping his athleticism would make up for the shaky arm there because SS is a super premium defensive position which maximizes player value. 4. The Twins play all of their prospects at multiple positions as part of the team's commitment to positional flexibility. Martin was permanently moved off SS because of a sprained UCL.