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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. When you take a face of the franchise and push them off their position, and their dream position which they've been told they were next in line for (SS in Lewis' case) to play a rookie who can't field or hit, there's a lot of potential to see a major shift in interest. If you were promised a promotion or position at work, and instead your boss brought in a new employee and shifted you to a position you didn't like, a position viewed as less valuable, to accommodate the new person, how would your commitment be impacted? Honestly, I'm not terribly concerned with Lewis right now as a person, but I am a bit concerned with him as a Twins player given how things went down and the fact the incompetent owners brought back the incompetent front office and management.
  2. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-arbitration-compensation-update/ Fangraphs' study/model would put Jax at $4.5MM for year 1 arbitration. Duran is probably about right, but everything seems to be shifting around a bit. Closers have typically done better.
  3. I don't understand the grades at all. In either article. Lopez gets a C+ for being the "Ace" and the "Cy Young Favorite" with a 4.08 ERA and barely better than 50% quality starts. Lopez's ERA is almost always higher than his FIP. Lopez was a #1 who pitched like a #3 or #4. That's a D from me. Joe Ryan looked fantastic out of the gate (again), and flopped later before going down with an injury. Still, he put up the same bWAR as Lopez, and he did it for $760k. Matthews gets an A. He started the year in High A ball, exploded up the national rankings. He wasn't ready, and the signs were there in AAA, but the Twins didn't have anything to fall back on so they put Matthews in... and then let him struggle. Paddack gets an F. There's no world in which a 4.99 ERA from a veteran who was hitting a wall as the calendar turned to June, who couldn't even keep the Twins in a good spot for half his starts gets anything other than an F.
  4. I don't understand how a guy who wasn't even allowed to start the year on the 26 man who puts up a wRC+ 115 on the season gets a D+. I guess he needed to win the MVP to get a C?
  5. Lots of 20/20 hindsight rebuilt into "I knew it all along" in here while also knowing the current prospects are made of gold and guaranteed! 2016 - Buxton #2, Berrios #19, Kepler #44, Tyler Jay #60, Nick Gordon #91, Jorge Polanco #97 Plus recent graduates or top 100s from 2015 Miguel Sano #11, Alex Meyer #29, Kohl Stewart #36, Plus other pre-Falvey regime prospects who hit top 100 status Alex Kirilloff #9 in 2019 Stephen Gonzalves was #78 in 2018 Fernando Romero was #68 in 2018 Then there were the exited fanbase around here at TD with can't miss starting pitching prospects from the Falvey draft/acquisition process. Blayne Enlow, Brusdar Graterol, Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Lewis Thorpe, Matt Canterino, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Connor Prielipp, Louie Varland. There was tons of hype around each one of those guys. They were all practically money in the bank. The only one of those guys to potentially pan out as a legitimate starter is Sim. Prielipp is a maybe that could work out. If you're thining, what about Ober? He never even appeared on the Twins top 30 organizational prospects lists. Joe Ryan? Wasn't in Tampa's top 10 when he was traded.
  6. My feeling is, yes. 1993-2001 - Feels a lot like the same kind of ownership as we've seen since the end of last year. "Can't compete on the big budgets, etc." Fan apathy just set in. Hatred of greedy sports owners in Minnesota (Carl Pohlad, Norm Green, etc.). 2002-2009 After miser Carl Pohlad blinked when Radke held his feet to the fire extending the ace in mid 2000, and the failure of the contraction effort in 2001, it was a new age for the Twins. Fans were energized by false cries of financial woe eventually giving way to the rusty hinges of Pohlad's wallet opening and the success of the Twins in 2001. 2010 Fans were excited with the opening of Target Field, Jim Pohlad's promise of expanding payrolls, and the unprecedented (for the Twins) recent extensions of their top players like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan. 2011 - It seemed like a convergence of unexpected performances, and bad luck caused the collapse. Liriano completely cratered, Baker had a great season but missed a huge chunk, Pavano declined. "Bilateral leg weakness" and the training staff handling it poorly crippled Joe Mauer. Injuries devastated the team with only 2 players qualifying (Valencia, who was a huge disappointment and Cuddyer who had a great season). 2012 - The realization the Twins just weren't that good, but the terrible 2011 softened the blow a lot. The Twins went out and picked up Willingham so there was at least some effort, I suppose. Plus, Bill Smith was shown the door after the brutal 2011 campaign which meant somebody was held accountable. 2013-2014 - The rebuild was underway. The team wasn't expected to be good. 2015-2016 - The signs of life showed up with a surprise playoff appearance in 2015, followed by a let down in the 2016 campaign, but the Twins young core showed enormous promise. 2017-2023 - The Falvey era hope. Regardless of which side you were on, the doors opened up and the dingy basement of Twins analytics was rapidly aired out, expanded and enhanced. Falvey brought the team into the modern age of scouting and analytics driven development. After 20 years of ineptitude, the Twins were finally a team to be reckoned with. A playoff series win. A young core with truly impressive potential. Analytics in place. An ownership group with a younger and interested voice who were willing to spend money and compete. 2024 was the year. You could just feel it. Yeah, from the end of 2023 to now, ownership took the fan base out back and put it down in a way which is almost incomprehensible. It was almost like a strategic plan to kill the fan base. I'm not sure they could have done any more damage to skip by hope and anger and go straight to apathy.
  7. Buxton (wRC+ 98 through all May) and Castro (wRC+ 85 August-Sept) get their two months of sucking ignored. Lewis, Farmer, Miranda get dinged for their 2 rough months. Side note, Larnach gets an A from me. For a career wRC+ 96 guy coming into the season, putting up wRC+ 121 is outstanding. The guy resurrected his career.
  8. "not hobbled by something" Buxton has been the recipient of the most shameless excuse making in the history of baseball with a close second being Alex MVP When Healthy Kirilloff. Every game those two go 0-4, they're hurt. Every game they do well, they're suddenly healthy again. Even if it's literally back to back games. Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player, if healthy enough to play CF, if he played a 150 game season. Lemon was just as valuable as Buxton will ever be at his peak. Buxton is not better than Lemon, and Lemon was just very good (but never truly exceptional) for a very long time. Chet is closer to Kirby Puckett since Puckett and Lemon actually played about the same number of games. Puckett got the HoF nod due to popularity and the fact he was forced to retire maybe a couple years early. Just because Buxton put up some really great numbers in a SSS in 2021 with a 40pt over career average BABIP doesn't mean a person can project that reasonably. Castro looked like a 6 WAR player this year for a while. How did that turn out once the plate appearances stacked up?
  9. Yay for all the people coming back! It's not a bad thing. Who doesn't like rooting for perennial .500 or 1 and done teams??? Whoo hooooooooo!!!! Yay!!!!
  10. I'm sure they said the same thing after 2011. I have 0% confidence in the Twins delivering a better product next year. Even worse than anger is apathy, and the Twins are probably in that category at this point. At the moment, I'd peg this franchise for 90+ losses next year. Detroit will get stronger. KC will get stronger. Chicago will get stronger. Cleveland looks set. The Twins are getting weaker.
  11. Screw the Pohlads. Some day, we may see some semblance of them running the business with accountability for the executives, but it's not this year. Hope they like bottom 5 attendance.
  12. Don't you dare write me in! I'm not going to become a Nationals fan!
  13. This article is so annoying. Can we get a Pablo Lopez proved doubters wrong, too? Maybe @Cody Christie is addressing @Cody Pirkl from 3 months ago when Byron Buxton was basically replacement level, 2 months into the season? LOL. I can't wait for the Pablo Lopez proved doubters wrong article! Just ignore the half of the season where he did his best Louie Varland impression... and leave out a couple of the later starts, too. Maybe the Carlos Correa proved doubters wrong is coming? Or the Royce Lewis, MVP favorite article? Truth is, I do think Correa will be worth his contract and it's clear what a huge impact he makes when he's on the team. I think Lewis will get his fire back and crush it next year. There are a lot of Twins players I'm really bullish on, but about the only Twins worthy of this kind of article are: Trevor Larnach Matt Wallner Carlos Santana Cole Sands Simeon Woods Richardson David Festa
  14. Tapani was basically the Twins' ace in 1991. Had a rough start and a good one in the WS. He certainly wasn't overlooked by fans at the time.
  15. If you're not willing to spend 10 minutes researching it, but you form a really, really strong opinion on the subject... A family of 4 can go to a game, get a hot dog each, mom and dad can get a drink and the kids can get a soft drink for under $150 altogether. $18 ea for 300 level, $9 for SRO. Want to go cheaper? Park on 4th street down by the Salvation Army. $9 and a 10min kid friendly speed walk into the game. Literally two turns where you just follow the crowd anyway. You can carry food and water into Target Field, but the $1 hot dogs days kinda moots that point. Get SRO tickets and stake out a place at Truly On Deck. Get in and out of Target Field with good seats for a family of 4 for under $100 including parking. Also, don't take this the wrong way... but "Frostbite Falls" was never going to be a significant draw for fans in the seats. The vast majority of seats are filled by people within 30 minutes.
  16. This article is getting the "1 star" from me. Barely concealed more than an open taunt, Buxton proved nothing this year. Absolutely nothing. People said he couldn't hit for power! - Yeah, they said that back in 2018... hanging onto that internet debate grudge, much? He gets injured too much. - What? He played in only 100 games. That's awful. Terrible for a guy on a 7 year contract with a NTC. He's an 80 game a year player because of constant injuries, and he did a little better this year. Yeah. The Twins are in a financial crunch and Buxton is a big part of it. They should not have given him the contract. Buxton requires 2 roster spots, and he requires another starting caliber MLB outfielder to take that second roster spot. Case in point, when Buxton went down this year, the lack of a CF likely cost the Twins a playoff spot. Buxton's actual cost is way higher than his contract. I was glad to see Buxton play 100 games, but this article is ridiculous.
  17. Embarrassing game. I've never seen worse fielding than Brooks Lee's display tonight or a team which looked more unprofessional. Side note, 30min early, no hat. There wasn't 1:10 fans with hats despite a real attendance like 20k. 10,000 hats? BS. Absolute BS. I was in Hrbek's 20 minutes before game time. At least 30 people there. ZERO hats. Side note, I probably could have gotten a hat by going to one of the two "extra allocation gates" but I didn't care enough. I just found it to be utter BS the giveaways did not add up.
  18. Lets get Al Newman in there! He was part of the 87 and 91 teams too! Gladden was not a good player. He was a scrub, just like Gene Larkin, who is the one who actually knocked in the RBI-less in 33 1991 WS plate appearances Dan Gladden to win game 7.
  19. I think it was a massively successful season for Sim. He went from potential DFA/release candidate to start the year to effective back end rotation arm. He certainly helped the Twins while arguably matching the much over-hyped, yet perplexingly pitching just like he has most of his career, Pablo Lopez through most of the season. First start, April 13th through August 3.85 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 52% starts 5.0+ IP and ERA under 4.00 vs. Pablo Lopez over the same span 3.95 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 58% starts 5.0+ IP and ERA under 4.00 Does he have a new weapon? I don't know if he does or not, but it's pretty obvious he needs to be able to sustain that 94mph avg. fastball to be successful. 92-93 was good enough at the beginning of the year, but when his fastball started to decline, the scouting reports were now out and it seems 93 was no longer enough to get it done.
  20. Kepler shouldn't have been in a Twins uniform the last couple of years, but the guy is one of the more valuable players wearing a "Twins" jersey who has ever played. 1. Carew* 64 WAR 2. Killebrew* 60 WAR 3. Mauer* 55 WAR 4. Puckett* 51 WAR 5. Oliva* 43 WAR 6. Hrbek* 38 WAR 7. Knoblauch 38 WAR 8. Allison* 31 WAR 9. Gaetti* 27 WAR 10. Hunter* 26 WAR 11. Tovar* 26 WAR 12. Buxton 25 WAR 13. Morneau* 23 WAR 14. Dozier 23 WAR 15. Coskie 22 WAR 16. Smalley 21 WAR 17. Kepler 21 WAR Following Kepler is Mack, Gagne*, Polanco, Span, Brunansky, Cuddyer*, Gladden* and a whole host of others. *Twins HoF Will Kepler make it into the Twins HoF? I don't know. It'll honestly probably depend on what he contributes to the organization off the field after his retirement. Guys like Gladden certainly didn't make it based on what he produced on the field for the Twins with his only good season coming in 1988. (5.7 career Twins WAR in 5 years, more valuable with the Giants to start his career, and played with the Tigers at the end)
  21. Public funding is nuanced in terms of its benefits, which are often very limited, IMHO, but it basically boils down to: Pro sports franchises are in high demand, and they're a major source of prestige for the cities who have them. High demand, and low availability so communities are willing to use public money to acquire them. That's the market at the moment. Like it or not.
  22. Nobody cares if Pablo pitches for the Twins next year. Like zero people. It won't matter 100 season ticket packages. Attendance went up after Kirby Puckett retired. Attendance went up after Joe Mauer retired. Lopez is just another good, but not great pitcher. If Lopez left and the Twins brought in Blake Snell (not happening in a million years), nobody would care that Lopez wasn't here anymore. Fans do not care about players. They care about the team. Nobody was devastated when Kyle Gibson left. Attendance went up after Jose Berrios was traded. Also, it's 10,000 hats, not 5,000, but still. Fan appreciation for 1/4 of the stadium capacity, LOL. We appreciate 25% of you who might attend, haha. I do believe the total is 10,000 and season ticket holders are allowed to purchase give-a-ways before the season. My guess is maybe 8,000 hats are left after season ticket holders are forced to purchase the "free give-a-ways" if they actually want a shot at getting them.
  23. Downtown is the only viable solution for an MLB team. You need the population density for season ticket holders and to support attendance for 81 home games a year. Recent stadiums outside of "downtown" areas were designed to be growth communities which would have high population densities shortly after the stadium opened.
  24. Social media is not a valid source for the feeling around a team, LOL. Twins fans love the Twins. Minnesota fans love the Vikings, but at one point, they did love the Twins. In regard to Denver, it is 100%, absolutely 100%, a Broncos fan base. Every other sport is just a an also ran. The Rockies are the little engine that couldn't. I've lived in Denver, seen dozens of Rockies games over the years at Coors including Twins at Coors games. The Rockies are the St. Paul Saints prior to affiliation. Do you know the Rockies audio people taunt opposing pitchers? They play "Say something, I'm giving up on you" for opponents' mound visits. They engage adults in actual on-field intermissions, like running from the left field wall to 2nd base, placing the base, then running across 1st base. The Rockies cater to young adults with an awesome upper deck bar area (like what Cutwater was probably imagined to be by some idiot Delaware North hack). The Twins cater to 5 year olds (who have a little less discretionary spending capability it turns out). Again, I don't know how many times I need to state this. PEOPLE DO NOT GO TO STADIUMS TO WATCH THE GAME. People go to the game because: 1. It's trendy. It's popular. It's a place to be seen and to brag you're there (social media). FOMO stuff. 2. It's fun to be out at a crowd event. 3. The entire game day experience is special and memorable. It's item #1 where the Twins fail. The most important item on the list. Target Field was popular in 2010-2013. Do you know how hard it is to find somebody to go to a Twins game? I created an online friggen spreadsheet with all my games and which ones I had a buddy to go with and shared it countless time this year. I messaged people, posted, etc. I still wound up going to several games solo despite offering a free Club Level seat, despite being able to show people the coolest things at Target Field. It was so much easier to find people to go to Wild games (even though the fan experience at Xcel absolutely sucks aside from the action on the ice). Going to a Twins game is largely seen as a nuisance for people. A "I'm probably not going to have any fun anyway, but at least there will be good company" That' the reputation Twins games have right now. Do you know what changes that? -> People in the seats; popularity Do you know what changes people in the seats? -> Season ticket holders. Do you know what changes season ticket holders? -> North Loop residents Do you know what the Twins have done to attract North Loop residents? -> ABSOLUTELY NOTHING The Twins are busy catering to K-6 kids in the suburbs like it's friggen 1985.
  25. I don't get... A) the celebration for 100 games played. B) the anger at only 100 games played. Buxton is an 80 game a year player. He has chronic hip, back, migraine and (now) knee issues. He will never play a full season. It's just not possible. There's no reason to be mad at him about it. It just is. I'm sure it's a milestone for him and his family especially after last year. Buck's been great down this stretch of games since he returned. He did pretty much all you could hope he could do. Does anybody remember what that guy went through to try and play last year? His regimen was insane. It was ridiculous. Getting his knee drained constantly, icing and immobilization every day until practice time. The guy did all he could just to be able to DH. The front office should have known better when they couldn't find willing trade partners for him in 2021, and then extended Buxton on a 7 year contract with an NTC instead of re-signing him for 3yrs when he was allowed to test free agency. The front office knew how valuable the rest of baseball GM's thought Buxton was, but the Twins front office tripled down on the "I'll show you!!" style contract. That's not Buxton's fault. We can't be held responsible for the... I'm not going to name names after a game. But it's 3rd and goal and Anderson's shoe comes off, now I love Anderson! but that ain't Bob Schnelkers fault! We have a throw out to AC in the flat and the ball's thrown low. That ain't Bob Schnelkers fault!... Honestly, this the the bed Falvey made. Now ownership needs to hold him accountable.
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