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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Jhoan Duran is dramatically, and I do mean "dramatically" overvalued in this article. He's a good, not elite, relief pitcher. He's arb eligible next year and has a negative fWAR this year thanks to his HR problems leading to a 4.24 FIP. His ERA/FIP/xFIP lead to an overall mid/upper 2's guy who you'd expect to put up 1.2ish WAR per year. Joe Nathan Glen Perkins Rick Aguilera Taylor Rogers Eddie Guardado Jhoan Duran That's about how I'd rank the closers in Twins history right now. Jhoan Duran throws hard, but Griffin Jax is worth more than Duran now. Brooks Lee's value is tough to gauge. Lee straight up for Julien would be 50/50 trade teams would make right now based on Baseballtradevalues. I get it, Lee was really exciting his first couple games, and he's been hyped to Pluto, but the reality is Lee just isn't viewed as a superstar type of player around the league, he's more like a Jorge Polanco ceiling type. Occasional All Star good, but he's not viewed by many outside Twins territory as a likely superstar type player.
  2. bean5302
    This is about trade value of Twins players. Not whether or not the Twins would trade them.
  3. bean5302
    Some other top 100 prospects and how they rank at Baseballtradevalues Jenkins = 63.8 Lee = 30.8 Julien = 30.1 Keaschall = 20.7 Festa = 13.7 Matthews = 11.2 Gonzalez = 11.0 Some frontline to mid rotation starting pitcher value Cease 26.8 Gallen 26.4 Fedde 20.9 Luzardo 17.2 Eflin 17.1 Gray 10.6 Flaherty 8.5 Kikuchi 5.3 Eovaldi 4.8 Scherzer 3.6 Gausman 0.2 Verlander -1.8 Bassitt -5.7 Darvish -21.8 With the Diamondbacks once again over .500, I'd think Gallen would be hard to obtain, but I'd love for the Twins to snap him up if Arizona falters.
  4. bean5302
    I don't understand why the Twins didn't line up to trade Boushley for Jackson Holliday rather than DFA'ing him. After all, being demoted for a reset in AAA means the player is worthless. You know, like Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach, Simeon Woods Richardson, Bailey Ober and the like.
  5. bean5302
    I'm not sure about stuff at the moment. I know I wouldn't have Raya in the top 10, and Festa would be way at the back of that too. 1. Brooks Lee 2. Emmanuel Rodriguez 3. Walker Jenkins 4. Zebby Matthews 5. Luke Keaschall 6. Kaelen Culpepper 7. Andrew Morris 8. David Festa 9. Charlee Soto 10. Gabriel Gonzalez Lee will drop off soon, Rodriguez has shown he can hit in the high minors. Jenkins is struggling to make good contact (tons of pop ups, super low ISO) and drive the ball in A ball. Matthews was the best pitcher in AA, Keaschall is just 21 and destroying AA. Festa only has 2 MLB caliber pitches so he's destined for the bullpen. Soto is young, and Gonzalez needs to show more bat in A+ ball. I've always been more results oriented than swooning over draft profiles and draft pick pedigree than the average person. Prove the scouting reports.
  6. bean5302
    Edouard Julien (30) + Marco Raya (5) -> Jesus Luzardo (19) + Andrew Nardi (16) That's a trade.
  7. bean5302
    I wanted to point a little something out to folks on the NTC. No trade clauses aren't typically used to stick to their current team. They're typically used by players to negotiate contract extensions with the new team. If players are being traded away, they're likely going from a non-competitive team to a winning team on a path to the playoffs, and that's a very desirable position to be in. If a NTC player's existing team is doing great, it's unlikely they're going to try and trade a player who was expensive/valuable enough to command an NTC in the first place. Does a player with an NTC have trade value? Absolutely. If the Twins were to approach Byron Buxton about a trade to the Orioles, (where there is clearly a need) he'd replace Cedric Mullins, and the Orioles were willing to offer a new contract to Buxton's which would enhance his compensation, would Buxton block it? Keep in mind, Buxton's NTC ends after 2026, and you have to imagine the Twins are likely going to cut ties with him when it does. 1. Trading team doesn't want you. 2. New team is a likely World Series candidate. 3. Contract is improved.
  8. bean5302
    Woof!!!! This trade. Wooooooooof! Bernardino isn't worth much as a 32 year old reliever with a good, but not great history, and you do not ever trade a cost controlled, premium MLB position player for a middle reliever. While he has a sparkly 1.69 ERA and a 2.76 FIP, that's because Bernardino hasn't surrendered a single home run this year which is not sustainable. His xFIP is 4.10 and his SIERA is 4.00. He's going to regress. I've never been Julien's biggest fan, but the idea a two month reset in AAA takes a guy who was easily more valuable than Brooks Lee now sets the guy down to near PTBNL status is far too pessimistic. Boston would be signing papers and calling security to evict Bernardino from his hotel room before the phone call was even over. Eduoard Julien's trade value is still showing at over +30 at Baseballtradevalues (reviewing prosposed trades) which included a trade to the White Sox for Eric Fedde and Tanner Banks pretty much all on Julien's own.
  9. bean5302
    Generally, future WAR x 8 - future salary = approximate surplus value. Pablo Lopez is probably $80MM - $69MM = $11MM surplus. He's about to start earning that $22MM a year and he looks like a 3 WAR pitcher. Not a lot of excess value there.
  10. bean5302
    Santana absolutely 100% kept Miranda from playing at the start of the season.
  11. bean5302
    Jenkins -> Cedar Rapids, Gonzalez -> Wichita, Rodriguez -> St. Paul is the likely train of events after the trade deadline.
  12. bean5302
    I wouldn't have criticized them because that's exactly what I wanted them to do. There are always some waiver wire pick up guys who were as good as Santana was on average over his previous few seasons. It turns out, the Twins didn't need Santana.
  13. bean5302
    I think everybody is aware Santana is superior to Miranda at 1B. Most people, including myself, don't care. 1 WAR = 10 runs saved. .030 of OPS = 1 WAR-ish Miranda +4 WAR over Santana offensively. Maybe -1 WAR under Santana defensively. It's not a wash. Assuming Miranda played the same at the plate, he's a much more valuable player than Santana.
  14. bean5302
    Bannon was acquired for cash and he's not on the 40 man. Diego Castillo was called up, but maybe the Twins suspect Castillo will be claimed if they DFA him, but they're still planning on DFA'ing him and want a backup on the roster because they expect him to be claimed if they do. If the Twins move Eeles down to A+ ball from AAA to make the A+ team better, that'd enrage MLBPA.
  15. bean5302
    For those folks wondering what the heck xERA is, it's based on xwOBA. Pablo Lopez never seems to perform up to his sparkly expected metrics. Some pitchers outperform expectations consistently (Verlander) and some underperform (Lopez).
  16. bean5302
    Speaking of Eeles, he's looking good at AAA, too. .231/.444/.385 .154 ISO OPS .829 16.7% BB, 13.9% K rate wRC+ 134 in just 36 PA. What a fun story so far. I wonder how well Eeles will have to play to earn a call to the big show? I'm guessing the Twins are feeling no pressure to make the move now that Eeles is at a level appropriate for his age. Maybe a September call up?
  17. bean5302
    Crochet probably isn't going anywhere. The Twins will need to target guys with less team control or a higher AAV cost like Blake Snell, Zac Gallen or Sonny Gray. So what would say, Blake Snell cost? We'll assume he pitches well in his next two starts vs. the Dodgers in L.A. and Rockies in S.F., but SF is still willing to move him because they're still 9 games back of the division and 3 games back from the Wild Card (under .500). Snell's probably a rental, and a cheap one at that. His 2024 salary is only $15MM, meaning he's only going to cost the acquiring team $5MM, though if he has a bad 2nd half or gets hurt, his $30MM player option is scary, but it doesn't come with a single lump sum hit as $15MM is deferred until 2027. It's hard to gauge the cost of Snell, but a 6-10 and a 11-15 type should get it done. Not sure what SF would target as their primary interest.
  18. bean5302
    I'm not in agreement with this article. Carlos Santana's competition was not really Rhys Hoskins, it was Jose Miranda. The Twins picked Santana and $5MM less to work with. Meanwhile, Jose Miranda has far outpaced Santana's production. It's a net loss even though Santana's been good after a horrible start to the season. Hoskins started the season hot and has been cold since if I remember right. I'm skeptical Santana's hot production will continue, btw. Santana's xwOBA is right in line with his actual production, but by virtually every advanced contact metric, he's average, and he's lost his excellent walk rates. Expecting the above average production to continue seems optimistic. Margot can't play center field and is barely serviceable in the corners at this point. Plus his bat's been awful. He wasn't the right target as -0.2 WAR isn't a good choice, even at only $4MM net. The good news here is the trade doesn't have to be viewed in a vacuum as Doncon has caught (and probably passed) Noah Miller and his exceptional defense. Michael A. Taylor +0.3 WAR and and Kevin Kiermaier +0.1 WAR are still excellent CF defenders, and that's what the Twins needed. The Twins needed a multi-year, team controlled center fielder to back up Buxton. Their internal option was Austin Martin, and he's been better than Margot. The external free agent option was Cody Bellinger, but that seemed awfully far-fetched. I proposed trading for Jarren Duran (preferably) or Wilyer Abreu (consolation prize) in last year's offseason simulator.
  19. bean5302
    The Twins desperately need an ace. They don't have one, and if they want to advance in the playoffs, they likely need one. Solid starters get you to the postseason, and swept right back out of it. Last year is the very first time the Twins entered the playoffs in the last decade with a strong 1-2 in Gray and Lopez. Right now, I don't feel comfortable going up against opponents top 3 starters with our guys.
  20. bean5302
    No MLB franchise trades for Festa before Woods Richardson. Honestly, I was pretty surprised BA still had Festa listed as top 100 despite the obvious issues he put on display. The Twins should capitalize on any team interested in Festa as a centerpiece for a major trade.
  21. bean5302
    Matt Wallner was about average defensively last year in the corners, and he has the skills to be well above average with some consistent playing time in a single position. Wallner gets a bad jump from slow reads on contact. No guarantee it'll ever improve as Brent Rooker hardly panned out well despite MLB average speed and a pretty strong arm. 2023 OF - 487.2 Innings UZR/150 = -0.4 DRS/yr = +2 OAA = -4 Rtot/yr = +2
  22. bean5302
    ...actually, I called for it a couple weeks ago over Festa, haha.
  23. bean5302
    Hell yeah!!! Can't wait to see him torch AAA hitters. Get him a couple starts to prove he's got the stuff and get him in the rotation to replace Paddack where he will undoubtedly continue to strike out lots of people walk nobody and allow nobody to hit fly balls out of the infield. Yes. That's what I'm going to go with. I like that future.
  24. bean5302
    I mean, he's produced 0 WAR this year so it seems likely the Jays just want him off the books if they can swing it. Open it up to everybody. One free Kevin Kiermaier, slightly used, comes with $4MM salary remaining.
  25. bean5302
    I've noticed there is a lot Wallner hate on Twins Daily. Not sure if it's just a popularity thing or what? His K rate last year was right in line with other players like Julien, Larnach, Buxton, Taylor, and Jeffers. I expect Wallner to continue to have a steady K rate in the low 30s, though it may improve a bit over time.
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