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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Looking at the roster, I'd say this is probably a 87-88 win team as constructed. The improvements over the current 84-85 win roster is Yandy Diaz over Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien on the 26 man, and Campusano over Vazquez. This offseason plan probably operates more in the hypothetical realm than most by assuming Campusano isn't wanted by the Padres or Peralta and Diaz would be accepted by ownership. Still, it's not outlandish as a guideline.
  2. bean5302
    I can't agree with that. The consideration of moving Jax to the rotation is about his ceiling as a potential upper rotation starter. That's not something you're likely to ever see out of a guy like Morris who is more likely to top out as a durable innings eater. Think more Nick Blackburn than Francisco Liriano.
  3. bean5302
    I'd be more inclined to target Mason Montgomery than Garrett Cleavinger, who puts way too many guys on base. Cleavinger has gotten decent results, but I there appears to be a significant element of luck in it.
  4. bean5302
    Supporting that: https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/tampa-bay-rays-reportedly-searching-for-offensive-help-at-catcher-position-this-offseason The Rays were tied to Travis d'Arnaud, who isn't known for his bat. I'd suspect they'll be pursuing Gary Sanchez pretty hard as well. It's tough to say whether or not the Rays would pass on Vazquez as it's equally tough to gauge how other teams' front offices might view him.
  5. bean5302
    Luzardo will earn $6.0MM based on MLBTR estimates and Spotrac predicts $8.6MM. How are the Twins going to absorb the additional contract to begin with? Luzardo has the potential to be an upper rotation guy, but he's only flashed it, and the 27 year old had microfractures in his spine last year. Right now, BaseballTradeValues has Luzardo equal to Royce Lewis straight up. BTV is predicting Luzardo at 2.5 WAR per season and $6MM + 9MM ($15MM total) in salary or so. Lewis is predicted at like 1.8 WAR for the next 4 years with a salary like $3 + $6 + $9 + $12MM per year. Mack has some value as a AA catcher, but Miller is a middling prospect at the moment. Larnach isn't bringing back Luzardo. Larnach is a 2 WAR (ceiling) every day player already in arbitration, and he has virtually no up side. If he was fast and a plus defender, a team might be more willing to covet him, but these proposals ignore the reality. Other teams do not just have to trade with Minnesota. They can choose any of the other 28 teams in baseball as a trade partner so they don't have to overpay for readily available talent.
  6. bean5302
    I think you're going to find you're in the minority if you'd like to cast off a top 10-ish prospect to unload $2-3MM of salary, and yes, I do expect it would cost a significant prospect for any team to consider taking on Randy Dobnak's contract. +50-100% the negative equity (all of it) for a realistic scenario at where a team jumps on the deal. Again, they're likely just going to give Dobber his unconditional release in this trade scenario. He'd struggle to get a MiLB deal right now.
  7. bean5302
    I'm cautiously optimistic about Morris being a back end rotation arm. If Morris can be super durable, he could be a Kyle Gibson type of 2 WAR starter as a ceiling. Eating a lot of innings, generating a lot of ground balls, not striking many out. I think that's his ceiling, not his average. Morris' 7.22 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9, and 4.28 FIP in AAA doesn't project well to MLB.
  8. bean5302
    Paddack probably has a little to quite a bit of negative value. The Twins are likely going to have to pay some of his salary or toss in a prospect to unload the $7.5MM. I've seen quite a few posts suggesting top tier teams who don't have traditional salary limits can take Paddack on, and that's true, but they could just as easily take an actually good pitcher on. Even a team like the Yankees or Mets or Dodgers only has a 26 man active roster. They don't want to fill that roster up with guys who don't help get them to the playoffs. Those big market teams would rather have the Cardinals pay down $15MM total and spend it the $18MM AAV on Sonny Gray. It's a totally different story taking a MiLB flier with an opt out on somebody. That costs nothing and doesn't hit the 40 or 26 man rosters.
  9. bean5302
    You're still on my ignore list, but I can manually choose to expand ignored content, just as a reference for anybody wondering how the "ignore" function actually works. You'll see the following text with a drop down on "Options" allowing you to see/respond/etc. I mostly browse TD while not logged in so I actually see quite a few ignored posts, even from people I've ignored. Every once in a while, I respond. Btw, can't prove an opinion to somebody who doesn't want to listen in the first place.
  10. bean5302
    Yep. There was that one time when he had 2 Cy Young candidates and the healthiest rotation in baseball.
  11. bean5302
    Why wouldn't the Twins just release Dobnak and eat the $3MM rather than giving Colorado (or some more likely hypothetical team) back more than $3MM of value? Sure, we could give the hypothetical trade partner Cory Lewis for taking Dobnak off our hands so they could turn around and potentially give Dobber his unconditional release, but is that honestly a good way to save a relatively insignificant $2-3MM (depending on if the Twins use the money to add a 26 man guy)? When you're talking about Paddack or Vazquez, sure, that's a lot of salary savings. Dobnak doesn't have a significant impact, and casting off significant prospects to save a pittance is a very tough sell to my logic.
  12. bean5302
    Let me make this absolutely clear. I don't agree with the front office's general strategies, and the front office further distanced themselves from Rocco Baldelli's decision making in the past in regard to the TTO concerns. I believe their combined general strategies are often founded in incomplete data or thoughts; they lean well too far into an unchallenged hypothesis and not enough into a theory. If you believe Rocco Baldelli's methodology doesn't create an increased need for a multi-inning reliever, that's your opinion and you have a right to it. Also, I'm not making a pitch to sell Tonkin to you since you (or I) have absolutely no influence on the Twins' front office decision makers.
  13. bean5302
    I continue to see this narrative that we can just cast off our negative value multi-million dollar players onto other teams because they're "desperate" for one thing or another. There are plenty of fringe MLB caliber reclamation projects with a higher likelihood of success than a guy like Dobnak, and those reclamation projects will be cheaper, too. Colorado is on record as wanting to drop payroll, and they were so desperate for pitching, they passed on grabbing Dobnak off waivers multiple times last year, along with 28 other teams. I don't think Dobnak is any better than Dallas Keuchel or Noah Syndergaard, both of whom are available for a MiLB deal. There is no reason to grab Dobnak at $3MM because of desperation.
  14. bean5302
    You keep using that word... I do not think it means what you think it means. Cherry picking is intentionally selecting only data set(s) which are beneficial to an argument. I arbitrarily chose rounds 1-5 as it feels like a fair cutoff for upper round selections where you might expect to find good talent. The results would be similar if I chose rounds 1-3 or rounds 1-7 or all rounds, except it's hardly fair to hold late round lottery ticket selections against the front office as failures.
  15. bean5302
    In my offseason plan, published before the "You're the GM" series came out, I tendered Tonkin. In fact, I definitely take him over Topa, who is another injury plagued possible one year wonder. Tonkin is a solid, durable innings eater who is cheap. When you've got Alcala, Moran, Stewart and Canterino on the roster, a durable middle innings bullpen arm is valuable. Teams have trusted Tonkin to pitch 160 innings of relief the past 2 years with a majority of his deployments being over 1.0 innings. When you've got Rocco "Quick Hook" aka "Broken Macro" Baldelli in the dugout, a reliever who is actually good at walking to the bump more than once per game is true asset.
  16. bean5302
    He's going to get an MLB offer for at least his arb value.
  17. bean5302
    No chance with BWAA. A strong new class will drop Hunter off the voting soon. Hunter was good, but not great. While he was a 5x All Star, Hunter made a couple of those as a good player on terrible teams. He might get in as part of the veterans committee, but not through writer votes, and the consistent borderline drop off voting record shows that (9.5% first year dropping to 7.3% last year with a low of nearly dropping off at 5.3% in 2022) Hunter's case with the veterans committee is a bit more complex because of his personal reputation and ties to players, but he lacks an MVP or a season which was worthy of an MVP or a great peak, unlike a guy like Fred McGriff. As WAR becomes more important, it'll stand out that Hunter had only 1 season in his 19 year career where he finished top 10 in WAR, and that was an 8th place finish in 2012 with 5.4. Hunter also wasn't a part of any WS appearance teams, and doesn't have any signature moments like Hall of Pretty Good/Stat Accumulators Jack Morris' WS Game 7 with the Twins in 1991. Personally, I think 60 WAR should be an automatic, though in recent years that 60 WAR number has become an insane base line minimum for a lot of people under the "accumulator" argument.
  18. bean5302
    Comparisons to other players like Wallner are difficult. Wallner was drafted in 2019 and started off faster than Winokur before the shutdown season of 2020. That said, Wallner's plate discipline was not projectable to a potential MLB roster spot after the 2021 season in A+, and the Twins made sure Wallner knew it. A major shift in plate discipline needed to take place for 2025's likely starting RF needed to take place, and Wallner made that enormous shift in 2022 to revitalize his prospect potential. Winokur needs to make a similar change sooner than later if he wants to remain a legitimate prospect. Some good news is that Winokur finished the season (8/1+) stronger than he started it, just like you'd hope. .264/.319/.527 OPS .847 wRC+ 136, 7.6% BB, 26.9% K, .310 BABIP I don't consider the Twins' system to be very deep right now so Winokur at #7 vs 15 is pretty irrelevant. He's a long shot until his plate discipline improves. The swinging strike rate and pop-up rates being what they are in A-Ball is very concerning. Winokur should start next season in Cedar Rapids, and it's likely a feast or famine in terms of prospect rank based on what he can do there.
  19. bean5302
    Bailey Ober is the only starter the Twins have drafted and developed who has not only made it to the majors, but has also established himself. Aside from that, here are the round 1-5 pitchers selected by the Twins. Rotation misses 2017 Landon Leach 2017 Blayne Enlow 2017 Charlie Barnes 2018 Cole Sands 2019 Matt Canterino (Traded away) 2021 Steve Hajjar Doesn't look good 2023 Tanner Hall 2023 Dylan Questad Rotation Hopefuls on Track 2020 Marco Raya (Traded away) 2021 Chase Petty 2021 Christian MacLeod 2022 Connor Prielipp 2022 Andrew Morris 2023 Charlee Soto Promising (Traded away) 2021 Cade Povich Established Nobody
  20. bean5302
    The Twins are for sale, the front office, manager and coaches are in lame duck status, the team failed to make the playoffs last year, the ownership has cut payroll, and attendance is poor. An elite international free agent is far more likely to sign with a team where he'll know the people he's working with in 6 months.
  21. bean5302
    I'd agree the team probably hasn't improved, but 73-78 win team is way lower than projections based on WAR. It'd probably take injuries to Lopez, Correa and a couple others to flop that hard.
  22. bean5302
    Since I didn't see a final roster in the post: C - Ryan Jeffers 1B - Jose Miranda 2B - Royce Lewis 3B - Brooks Lee SS - Carlos Correa LF - Trevor Larnach CF - Byron Buxton RF - Matt Wallner DH - Donovan Solano BC - Jair Camargo UI/UO - Brendan Donovan UO - Austin Martin UO - DeShawn Keirsey AAA Depth - Edouard Julien, Payton Eeles, Emmanuel Rodriguez Rotation? SP1 - Pablo Lopez SP2 - Joe Ryan SP3 - Bailey Ober SP4 - Simeon Woods Richardson SP5 - David Festa AAA Depth - Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya Bullpen BP1 - Jhoan Duran BP2 - Griffin Jax BP3 - Brock Stewart BP4 - Justin Topa BP5 - Ronny Henriquez BP6 - Kody Funderburk BP7 - Scott Alexander BP8 - Jorge Alcala AAA Depth - Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Matt Canterino In the scenario the Twins non-tender Willi Castro or trade him for something not relevant to the roster. Vazquez and Paddack are moved with no relevant return by covering half their salaries. All in all, I think this is probably an 84-85 win team.
  23. bean5302
    Ah, Correa is going to be the Twins shortstop for the foreseeable future. He's got 4 guaranteed years left on his contract, and he just turned 30. I'd be surprised if he moved off SS before that time period was up (a33 season). No idea who the backup is at this point. The Twins are solidly incompetent when it comes to choosing defensive positions and coaching defense.
  24. bean5302
    Every single team in baseball has salary limitations, and every team in baseball has done "salary dumps" to improve. The Yankees dumped Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela on the Twins to justify the cost of the Donaldson contract for example. Camargo's .212/.290/.403 wRC+ 76 experience in AAA last year says he has quite a bit left to prove. Projection models suggest .203/.258/.346 at the MLB level for a wRC+ 70. Vazquez bat, but with a questionable glove. He's emergency depth the Twins didn't even want to play when they had to call him up. I think you're right about finding a rebound MiLB contract guy as depth like a Max Stassi.
  25. bean5302
    Like it or not, Ryan Jeffers is a successful, veteran MLB catcher who has tried a number of different approaches behind the plate with a glove or next to it with a bat. The kind of player serious young guys seek out based on your suggestion. Jeffers worked on his game and sought the help of Twins coaches like Conger (defense) and Popkins (offense) to improve weaknesses in his game. He didn't just do things randomly on his own and ignore the Twins' front office and coaches. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5295401/2024/02/24/twins-catcher-ryan-jeffers/ The new theory on setting up middle-middle is a Twins philosophy which Ryan Jeffers adopted because he's willing to try new things. Vazquez doesn't have to drop as low as Jeffers to get low strike calls because he's already super short. That allows Vazquez the opportunity to stand taller. He can't teach height.
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