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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I think it depends on whether or not they get a Chris Sale style haul for him, and whether or not Detroit feels they're going to be competitive in the next year. This year has been a little disappointing for them so far. Trading Skubal seems pretty far fetched to me as well.
  2. bean5302
    It's a "quality start" in name only. ERA 4.50 isn't all that "quality" over only 6.0 innings since you'd expect an additional run to be scored against a bullpen in the next 3 innings. Meaning the team the QS pitcher plays for is likely going to need to score at least 5 runs to win, which is less than 50% odds. Also, I don't know why people keep bringing up WPA. There have to be at least 100 comments explaining how it works at this point. It's basically a more advanced "clutch" stat. When Joe Ryan entered the game, the Twins had x% chance of winning. When he left the game, the Twins had y% chance of winning (lower than when Ryan entered so it's a negative value).
  3. bean5302
    You don't think an MLB team would take this ultra team friendly contract on? 2024 - $2.25MM 2025 - $3.00MM 2026 - $6.00MM Club Option 2027 - $7.00MM Club Option 2028 - $8.50MM Club Option If Dobnak were recalled and added to the 40 man roster and he pitched well in his start, I don't think there's a chance in hell he makes it through waivers after the season he's had. There are middle relievers making that kind of bank. If Dobnak can manage being a back end rotation arm by keeping his ERA in the 4.50 range, he'd be at least a $10MM AAV. Kyle Gibson got $13MM this past offseason and even Sean Manea got $14MM AAV on a 2 year deal.
  4. bean5302
    Are you talking about Festa's two starts where he was obviously desperately trying to avoid walks? Festa hasn't had a BB/9 below 3.71 in the high minors. The issue with Festa is he doesn't have control over his pitches so if he really wants to avoid a walk, he has to aim his pitch too deep into the strike zone to be sure it doesn't miss wide. Matthews supposedly has the control necessary to aim exactly where he wants to deliver the pitch, and be close to his specific target, more like Greg Maddux's philosophy of pitch placement. There have been other Twins pitchers in the past who focused on pinpoint control like Kevin Slowey, but Slowey lived on mediocre stuff which had to hit the exact spots. Matthews is a 5 pitch pitcher throwing upper 90s, plus tight control. Getting K's without BB's and without allowing runs means Matthews is putting the ball where it needs to be placed, and his stuff should be at least solid. The real question about Matthews is just how good his stuff actually is. Scouting reports are a bit mixed, as expected since he hasn't honestly been a big name until just recently. MLB & Fangraphs Fastball = 55 & 55 Cutter = 55 & N/A Slider* = 45 & 60 Curve = 40 & N/A Changeup = 40 & 40 *also called sweeper 80 is ultra elite 70 is plus-plus 60 is a bone fide plus 50 is MLB average 40 is below average 30 is AAA caliber
  5. bean5302
    Fangraphs retroactively adjusted their fWARs. OAA wasn't even available on Fangraphs until 2022. 3/31/22 - (OAA now available on Fangraphs) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statcast-oaa-is-now-available-on-fangraphs/ 4/21/22 - (UZR component replaced with RAA/OAA) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/
  6. bean5302
    Matthews and Morris are looking great. I think Zebby has to be a no-doubter top 100 guy at this point. Certainly ahead of Festa IMHO. Varland shouldn't be viewed as a starter anymore. I'd love to see Matthews at the MLB level over Festa, but going into the postseason without an ace hoping a guy like Matthews could be that out of the gate is foolhardy.
  7. bean5302
    I do think Dobnak has earned his way back into an MLB rotation. I talked about it a few weeks ago. Even going back to the start of May, Dobnak owns a 2.80 ERA in 74.0 IP, though his FIP looked quite a bit rougher until June. I think it's tough to find a spot in the rotation for him since the front office has apparently decided to roll with David Festa who is on the 40 man. Festa hasn't been great in AAA, but at least showed some potential against the Phillies with an adequate underlying performance that churned out great results.
  8. bean5302
    I'd be surprised if Varland was on the depth chart as a starter at all right now. He's been pretty awful as a starter, even at AAA this year.
  9. bean5302
    Would be nice for the folks who have Comcast to be able to watch the games, but Diamond Sports is probably not coming out of bankruptcy or for long if they do manage to make it out, IMHO. It's clear their only major sports partner (MLB) is livid with them. I'm skeptical the Pohlads have learned their lesson so I think there's a good chance they will try to partner with Diamond yet again. From 2 months ago, when baseball owners were already furious. https://frontofficesports.com/mlb-weighs-media-overhaul-as-manfred-deals-with-dsg-turmoil/#:~:text=Manfred said he still anticipates,of you have missed that.”
  10. bean5302
    I was on board with the Pohlads losing money until this year's analysis was released projecting the Twins having made $19MM in operating income last year. It made sense to be cautious to cut payroll down to where they did, but not to keep it here if the team was in contention and had needs for the playoffs. The Pohlads also chose to stick with Diamond Sports and Dave St. Peter despite the president and CEO missing goal after goal these past few years. The Pohlads chose incompetence so asking the fans to bail them out feels disingenuous.
  11. bean5302
    It does not matter why Kirilloff is hurt or how legitimate the injury is. He misses huge portions of the season every year, and when he does play, he's been bad. You arguing that maybe, for the first time in his MLB career that Kirilloff will either A) not be hurt or B) actually tell the team how hurt he is and, that C) if he's actually playing while not under condition A or B that he'll be good enough to warrant a roster position as a platoon only DH seems far fetched. He's ARB2 and out of options after this year. In 900 plate appearances, he has generated ZERO WAR. Literally, you could replace him with any team's AAA 1B and they'd have been just as good as Kirilloff over the past 3 years.
  12. bean5302
    DRS and UZR use the exact same data set from BIS. UZR is not the same as Total Zone so talking about UZR being decrepit while praising DRS isn't rational. Suggesting the use of Miranda against RHP and Kirilloff against LHP? That's not what was being suggested, and that would make even less sense. DRS doesn't cap difficulty level adjustments, and it breaks the data set down into more precise batted ball data, even if the batted ball data from BIS isn't exact enough to warrant the tolerance DRS attempts to achieve. Basically, DRS has the potential to have a bunch of extra noise in their factors. UZR caps the adjustments for difficult plays made or easy plays missed, and UZR tosses data from extreme shifts. UZR is more stable than DRS, but DRS may be better or worse on any given player due to more aggressive adjustments to value. Fangraphs isn't infallible, but there's good reason they chose to use UZR for WAR over DRS, which Baseball Reference uses for WAR. Using a single defensive metric, especially in small sample sizes of less than 2 full seasons (with the same home stadium for OF) is just asking for poor results. OAA is the new kid on the block, but it's the least stable of any of the new big metrics. OAA is all over the place. Using it stand alone is nuts, IMHO.
  13. bean5302
    Kirilloff always has an excuse. Even if Kirilloff as good as you think he is, Miranda is just as good against RHP as Kirilloff is so there's no reason to push Kirilloff into the lineup, and it's not like you could count on Kirilloff to produce for more than 150-200 PA between "injuries" during the season. A career 0.1 WAR guy in 249 games and 884 plate appearances no matter how you look at it. Either Kirilloff hides his "injury" from the team and produces poorly or he reveals his injury and spends 6 weeks to 6 months on the IL. Choose your 0 WAR production method.
  14. bean5302
    Personally, I'd trade Pablo Lopez, Chris Paddack this offseason and use the farm to acquire cost controlled upper rotation arms if they're so hard up for cash. If the Twins want to be like the "Rays" or "Guardians" this is how they operate. Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris really need to work out.
  15. bean5302
    Paxton to the Red Sox. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/dodgers-trade-james-paxton-red-sox.html
  16. bean5302
    Yes. Blake Snell is the guy. His $15MM salary this year is the only thing it's going to cost the Twins. While there is the $30MM opt in, it's just a formality, the same as the 2yrs/$70MM for Carlos Correa in 2022. Snell will 100% opt out unless he's catastrophically bad or he's going to lose the entire 2024 campaign to injury. The risk is partially what will make Snell affordable. Additionally, if Snell were to "opt in" it's not a big deal. His 2025 salary 50% deferred meaning the acquiring club is only on the hook for $15MM in 2025, deferring $15MM 2 additional years to 2027. That gives any acquiring team plenty of time to adjust their roster if they have payroll capacity issues like the Twins. Blake Snell received a 6yr $150MM offer from the Yankees last offseason. He'll receive at least a 5yr $100MM offer this year if he pitches well. He'll be 32 next year which will be at the limits of his long term contract potential, and he's got $17MM of signing bonus coming to him for 2025 regardless of the contract he takes so he can afford to use that as a hedge fund to prop himself up if he doesn't get the perfect contract he wants. Snell's opt out is just as minimally risky as it can be.
  17. bean5302
    Amazon.com Comcast.com Microsoft.com Apple.com Google.com Walmart.com Tesla.com There's tons of opportunities to help the destitute billionaires.
  18. bean5302
    I'd actually donate to this, just for the ability to hold it over the Pohlad's heads next time I see Jim headed through Club Level up to the suites.
  19. bean5302
    Some players I think are more likely to be traded. Luke Keaschall Eduoard Julien David Festa Louie Varland Gabriel Gonzalez Marco Raya Payton Eeles
  20. bean5302
    There is exactly one name on that entire list which has any trade value. Matt Wallner, and it would likely be a colossal mistake to trade him, IMHO. *Severino - He might have a little value. a24, AAA wRC+ 113 on the season. DFA guys *Farmer - DFA in waiting. He's cooked, at least in Minnesota. There are too many players on the Twins' roster to keep Farmer for a late inning defensive replacement or occasional slap single PH. Good guy, but being a good clubhouse guy fans can relate to doesn't keep you on the team on its own. Non-tender guys *Kirilloff, might as well DFA. Non-tender guys aren't bringing anything back. *Winder - Zero value here. I thought Winder was going to turn into a mid rotation arm, maybe even better a couple years ago. Huge fan of his, but I think his shoulder troubles finally caught up to his stuff. He hasn't been the same as he was so his projectability has dropped. He's almost certainly getting non-tendered this offseason as he's out of options after this year. *Henriquez - No value here. Never had any when the Rangers tossed him in with the Garver trade to clear space on their 40 man. Adequate bullpen depth, but no options beyond this year. *Canterino, if a team feels like they need more guys on their 60 man IL, Canterino's your guy. I think he's also a non-tender candidate, but maybe a little less-so because there's maybe some hope left still in regard to his talent and he's got options. Still, he hasn't pitched a single competitive inning since July 30th, 2022, and he only has 34.1 innings above the low minors at age 24.
  21. bean5302
    LOL, I wouldn't say that. Martin's arm is average for a LF, well below average for a RF, but not the absolute worst or anything. Averages 84.8mph with a max of 94.3mph. The max is right in line with good RF's. Martin doesn't seem to have the right instincts for when he needs to put extra on the throws.
  22. bean5302
    Carlos Santana's UZR is average. His RF/9 is low. His DRS is good and his OAA is great, but like this site is so apt to do, we find the very best metric, even if it's unreliable, for a player and treat it as gospel. Santana's been good this year. MIRANDA IS NOT A PLATOON CANDIDATE. At all. Like 0%, and it's super easy to discover that with 30sec of Fangraphs' split tool. I've seen Miranda be noted as a potential platoon guy over and over and over on this site. I guess it's out of absolute desperation to justify keeping Kirilloff on the roster or something? wRC+ Career vs. LHP = 108, vs. RHP = 120 2024 vs. LHP = 87, vs. RHP 177 2023 vs. LHP = 56, vs. RHP 57 2022 vs. LHP = 132, vs. RHP 110
  23. bean5302
    Kinda kills any potential "platoon" benefit from pulling your best players for a backup, doesn't it?
  24. bean5302
    Having a hard time with phrases like "likely playoff teams" and the concept of month of "May" and then it's hard to count, huh?
  25. bean5302
    Won the Cy Young in 2020. Career 3.79 ERA. Career 3.87 FIP. Both similar to Pablo Lopez. Was earning $38MM a year with the most desirable team in baseball. Dominating his leagues the last two years he's been pitching, including leagues where the top pitchers signed this past couple seasons have: 2.92 ERA - Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2.84 ERA - Shota Imanaga 2.98 ERA - Kodai Senga 2023 A few other pretty decent pitchers who came out of Japan in the last decade or so. Yu Darvish. Shohei Ohtani. Kenta Maeda. Stick to virtue signaling, like I said. It makes you a bad person on the inside (where it counts), but it looks good on paper to the rest of the world when you need to pretend you're a good person.
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