bean5302

It's not all the defense. Best to worst defense in MLB is like 0.25-0.40 points of ERA. It's serving up meatball sandwiches when guys are on base.

I think error rate is actually very valuable. It's a little fact-check on some of the advanced metrics. Jorge Polanco, for instance. He boots a lot of balls, but depending on the metric, he can be rated highly on defense. Since Polanco doesn't have a strong arm, and he boots a lot of balls, it's a good indication the swoon-y metrics aren't reasonable. Fielding percentage on it's own is not particularly helpful for most positions, and almost useless in some instances. It's not a bad stat, though.

Nice job on the article! Honestly, what I've taken away from this is there's no good reason for Santana to be hitting so well, but there may not have been a good reason for Santana to have looked so poorly in 2020-2022. wOBA vs. xwOBA 2020 255 PA, .316 vs .372 2021 659 PA, .294 vs .335 2022 506 PA, .316 vs .352 3yrs 1420 PA .303 vs .348 -------- 2023 .323 vs .308 <--- Looked cooked. -------- 2024 .328 vs .323 There's every reason to believe Santana's solid production days were behind him. While 2020-2022 paints harshly unlucky results, when you see a pattern that long over that many plate appearances, it's so rarely a coincidence you just have to reset that to the new norm for a player. xwOBA of .348 (2020-2022) would be good for about a wRC+ 120ish, instead he managed an actual wRC+ 91 over that span. Then, last year, his expected numbers tanked to an xwOBA of just .308 at age 37 while his actual numbers reversed some of what appeared to be "bad luck" in the previous years. If you blend everything together, you get a player who is definitely in the twilight of their career, but Santana may be able to sustain close to this level of overall production through 2024. I think he'll regress a bit, yet, but he may be able to put up a slightly better than league average season at the plate. Using OAA on it's own isn't a good practice, IMHO. It's the worst possible defensive metric to use as a standalone and Fangraphs should switch back away from it ASAP. It's wildly inconsistent, and it's more like a video game "what if" simulation rather than crediting the player with what they actually produced. By most measures, Santana is a good first baseman, but the defensive metrics are actually split on him. Combining them all together gives the view of Santana being a solid first baseman. DRS = Excellent UZR = Below Average OAA = Excellent RF/9 = Poor

That was a valid argument about 2-3 weeks ago, and I was making it. I can't support it anymore, though. Even if we cherry picked the hardest we possibly could to support him sticking around, it's worth the caveat he's platooned against lefties with nearly 50% of his plate appearances coming against lefties: 3/28-4/26 = 55 PA, .064/.200/.085 OPS .285 wRC+ -11 4/27+ = 96 PA, .259/.344/.365 OPS .709 wRC+ 107 He was starting to slowly rebuild some value, but then the last couple weeks happened. Last 10 games: .136/.208/.182 OPS .390 wRC+ 16 There needs to be a point at which the Twins cut bait on players who increase the odds of losing, and Farmer is reducing the chance the Twins win games, and the metrics say it's not luck related. He's just not hitting the ball well. xwOBA .277, xwOBACon .286. His rolling 100 plate appearance xwOBA shows he hasn't been at or above league average at any time in the past 100 plate appearances.

Ryan has been consistently having "bad luck" over his recent starts. I'm not sure if he's just morphing into his traditional 2nd half Joe Ryan form or if he's copying Pablo Lopez's approach of pitching worse than the numbers say he should be. 6/25 - 6.0 IP, 4 R 6/30 - 5.2 IP, 2 R 7/6 - 5.2 IP, 3 R 7/12 - 5.1 IP, 5 R 7/21 - 6.0 IP 4 R Last 5 starts - 5.65 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.16 xFIP

The Twins literally came into the season with what many expected would compete for the best bullpen in baseball. I don't know what ownership increasing the payroll could have legitimately done to make the Twins' bullpen look better. I get it. Rah rah, only $130MM cheap Pohlad's!!!! Stupid owners! At least attempt to make a valid point when you're going off on ownership.

Lombardozzi visits Gladden, LOL. That's some fun history right there. I wonder how that would play out in modern times? Is that covered under the domestic policy? haha

I think it's just quicker to DFA Farmer when he comes back from the IL if Julien hits well. There's nothing the Twins could get back for Farmer. He's a sunk cost, and it's not worth spending anything in prospect capital to try and save $2MM.

The poll was primarily about culture and atmosphere. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5424700/2024/04/24/mlb-front-office-rankings/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=9595872&userId=211750 If the Twins have such a great front office, why can't Levine find a job? He's been interviewing... This homer BS gets old.

MLBTR is reporting Castro will handle primary SS duties. Austin Martin was activated from the IL so I suspect he'll have primary backup for Buxton. Julien's swing has produced 3 HRs over the past 10 games so it seems like his power stroke might be returning. I don't think he's going to be as good as his production numbers from last year, but Julien playing well over the next couple weeks probably means a Kyle Farmer DFA.

Anybody willing to get to the game 2hrs early has a 25% chance of getting a $2 Rubik's cube!

Yeahhhhhhhhhhh. Keep dreaming. When Falvey's #2 can't even make it past round 1 interviews for the Red Sox, you get a pretty clear picture on how teams feel about the Twins' executive management.

Yep. Austin Martin was ranked up there in 2021, too.

I think it's pretty clear this year is a decisive one for the Twins franchise. Coming off their first playoff win and advancement in 20 years with a relatively new face of ownership, a GM on an expiring contract, a failed TV deal and a president and CEO who has consistently failed to meet expectations for several straight years, the Twins are in a position to totally clean house.

I think ownership will be ready for him to move on from Falvey rather than the opposite case. Ownership was pretty pointed last year the bar was raised in terms of expectations on the field, and they didn't extend him after the playoffs last year. Falvey is on an expiring contract along with Thad Levine, who couldn't even secure a 2nd round interview with the Red Sox this past offseason. All in all, Falvey's got a pretty good gig. Mid market payroll, low fanbase expectations, nice facilities, good location. Not sure where he'd move on up to? San Francisco, maybe San Diego? Lots of competition for those roles.

Yeah, he's 19. Just like every single other player drafted last year out of high school who is either at A-ball or higher ranked already. The sample size of 26 games this year is getting significant because of the level of competition he's playing against, being able to add it on to last year, and the results have been steady. He was a 5th overall pick, not some round 15 unknown raw prospect. There are expectations with come with being 5th overall and a $7.1MM signing bonus, and one of those expectations is to be able to drive the ball. The expectation is to be dominant against a moderate increase in competition level over top D1 college teams. In 173 A-ball plate appearances, Jenkins has managed just 3 HR and 9 XBH total. It's not that Jenkins is a poor player or a bust in general. Relative to expectations, and scouting, he's got some work to do. Jenkins was an elite athlete swimmer and was drafted at 6'3" and 210lbs. I'm not sure how much raw power you expect he will add to his game with muscle alone, but there's precious little room for an bigger number on the scale with him remaining a potential CF. Obviously, Jenkins should be able to re-work his swing to find more power with his existing frame, that's just not something you'd expect a lot for the pedigree of draft selection he came with. Jenkins is going to take some extra time to develop, and because he's not doing the things you'd expect from a player in his position, I moved him down my top org prospects.

It came with a 7 year $105MM contract and a full NTC for 5 of those years. That contract was a landslide win for Buxton, and it came before Buxton even hit free agency. I'm not sure why you're appear to be taking the position players don't ever waive their NTC. It happens all the time. Players also approve trades under 10-5 rules all the time. Most players aren't in the business of trying to screw their existing teams over. It doesn't look good for their next round of free agency. Why would Buxton want to remain on a team that doesn't want him? Furthermore, what team who wasn't expecting to compete for a World Series, and didn't have significant payroll capacity would want Buxton? He'd obviously only attract interest from mid-market or large market teams who were competitive.

To have more than 2 MLB caliber pitches? His calling card was strikeouts, but those vanished at the MLB level as he was laser focused on avoiding walks. Even so, he was still pretty wild. Basically, Festa looked pretty raw, and he's 24 now.

Oh, the poor White Sox fans. Though, being that awful does make it kind of fun to speculate on whirlwind trades etc. Too bad their ownership is more toxic than Snake Island.

Not interested in Sears at all. We don't need another Tommy Milone.

He's had 6 weeks to do that in his second go 'round of the lowest level of full season professional baseball. Again, not what is expected from a #5 overall pick.

I agree. So much fluff in these recent articles on Jenkins. I dropped him to 3rd in my org prospects list. It's time for him to prove he can handle the lowest range of professional competition with more than pop ups and grounders while DH'ing.

Again, players vetoing trade proposals is rare. It has happened, like Eduardo Rodriguez, but it was pretty shocking to everybody when Rodriguez vetoed it. In 2027, Buxton has a 5 team trade list, which means as part of his contract, he doesn't have 10-5 rights anymore. There are 5 teams the Twins can ship him to regardless of whether or not he likes it. Beyond that, Buxton is on a 2 year $30MM contract at that point. If Buxton has trade value, and he probably does have surplus value at 2 years and $30MM, the Twins are likely to move him. Of course, this is all semantics as "likely" depends on a whole host of things.

So our #5 overall draft pick is about average for A ball exit velocity. While he's making contact, Fangraphs is showing a nightmarish 30% pop up rate on his fly balls, and a 43% ground ball rate which is higher than you'd like to see. To sum it up, the quality of contact for Jenkins has actually been pretty rough, and when he does hit it hard for him, it's hit hard at about about the league average. This is what's led to the .115 ISO, again, in A ball. Average in A-ball is not what you hope for from the #5 overall pick in baseball. Jenkins is 6'3" tall and 210lbs with a very athletic build already. He's not like Nick Gordon who was 6'0" and 160lbs when drafted where you could expect a guy to put on 25-30lbs of muscle.

They want to make sure they try to churn out as many poor fielders as they can.