bean5302

Martin's home run robbing catch would have been a lot more impressive if he didn't also bounce a ball off his glove costing the team a run and allowing the Athletics to tie it up in the 2nd. Exciting to have Royce Lewis out there playing like an MVP.

So he's not in good enough shape to be a professional baseball player. Got it. Cut him.

Varland pitched well against the Rockies, but the Rockies were hitting him very hard. Some of the big problems Varland was having while getting rocked were still present vs. Colorado. Festa isn't going to take a start away from anybody so if he get an opportunity, it'll probably be due to injury, but he's getting results far superior to what Varland is doing. Festa's just not on the 40 man.

I haven't seen any reports about Kirilloff being injured or needing rest. He hasn't played, but that could be for a number of reasons.

His stuff is so filthy AA hitters were able to lay off it and saddle him with a 5.8 BB/9 walk rate in Canterino's only experience above the low minors in his entire career, but that was 2 years ago, too. Canterino's been great at striking guys out, but his "stuff" needs to hit the strike zone as he progresses.

Love Lewis, but concentrating on injury issues for other candidates while ignoring Lewis' lengthy injury history is makes this article a dud for me. This was supposed to be an objective analysis. Let me help you with that... Assuming no future unknown injuries, Lewis certainly looks to have the highest ceiling of the players. Given Lewis' impressively lengthy injury history, that's probably not realistic. That said, some of the other players are already a hair width away from retirement due to injuries at this point, and all of them have experienced some sort of significant setback in the department. I rated their future WAR production alone, without considering costs. If Lewis does turn into a 5-6 WAR, full season player, he's going to be dramatically more expensive than the other players projected so do keep that in mind. MacKenzie Gore is about to hit Arb Eligible next year as well, so a big year to start it off could push him up the payroll quick. fWAR bWAR Ann. WAR FA WAR FA Hunter Greene 5.1 5.3 3-4 16-19 2028 Royce Lewis 3.6 3.5 5-6 26-30 2029 Brendan McKay 0.8 -0.2 0 1-1 2029 MacKenzie Gore 3.9 3.6 3.5-5 16-22 2028 Kyle Wright 2 2.6 0 3-3 2027 Hunter Greene's gone through quite a few injuries, like Lewis, but Green's on pace to have his 3rd straight season with 20+ starts, roughly averaging 110-120 games on the roster per season. That's more than Lewis' entire career. Greene's struggled with walks, and his ceiling seems quite a bit lower than Lewis' as his secondary offerings aren't elite. Kind of a Joe Ryan type of pitcher, but a pitcher who relies on fastball velocity rather than fastball deception. Future projection, mid rotation starter. 3 WAR / season. MacKenzie Gore is having a Cy Young caliber season this year. 3.24 ERA, 2.92 FIP, but injuries had slowed down his progress until now. It's looking like he's put some things together in Washington and at age 25, he's showing the kind of performance you could expect from an Ace, but I have my doubts based on his stuff seemingly getting results above the pitches' pay grade. The slider is thrown extremely hard, and I think he's about the hardest throwing lefty fastball pitcher so the velo is helping him, but the movement is a bit sketchy. He's getting results though. He's on pace for his second basically full season in a row this year with the hopes the injuries are largely behind him. Future projection takes into consideration the movement reducing his ceiling a bit to mid/upper rotation starter at 3.5 WAR / season. Kyle Wright has ended up with the Royals after putting together only one productive and healthy season in 2022. Atlanta rushed Wright up the ranks quickly after the draft with the pitcher even reaching MLB the year after being drafted. Wright floundered in 2019-2020, struggling greatly with a combination of walks and barrels prompting Atlanta to keep him in AAA most of 2021. His aforementioned breakout season came in 2022, though his sparkly 3.19 ERA was outperforming his 3.58 FIP, though the xFIP was only 3.30. From there, Wright developed shoulder issues, ultimately leading to capsule surgery and the Braves gave up on their rising star from 2022 trading him to the Royals for a reliever. Wright's career is probably over as coming back from shoulder capsule surgery is going to be tough. Future projection limited value. Brendan McKay's lengthy injury struggles are well known. UCL surgery (good outcomes), TOS surgery (poor outcomes), the two-way wonder abandoned the efforts to hit after 2019, making just 25 plate appearances between injuries in 2021 for his last hurrah. One of the biggest reasons to choose McKay was the expectation there was less risk with a prospect who could make it as a hitter or pitcher if they couldn't do both. The surgeries have robbed McKay of a lot of velocity, and I believe he was sitting at about 90mph on his fastball to open the season, then quickly went down with multiple arm issues. It'd be a stretch to believe he's got a notable career in MLB ahead of him IMHO. Future projection, limited value. All in all, it certainly looks like the Twins made a good, if not the best pick among the top candidates, but it will likely depend on Lewis remaining healthy to capitalize on his talents. MacKenzie Gore looks to be a guy who could potentially give Lewis a run for his money as well.

Over 33 plate appearances? Yeah. Every year for 5+ straight years. 2024 4/16-5/18 35 PA .071 AVG, wRC+ 34 2023 4/29-5/10 35 PA .036 AVG, wRC+ -3 2022 6/18-7/2 35 PA, .034 AVG, wRC+ -14 2021 8/28-9/6 38 PA, .065 AVG, wRC+ 26 2020 8/22-9/1 33 PA, .038 AVG, wRC+ -11

I cannot fathom in all my attempts to understand how these articles talk about the Twins needing a lefty power bat, but don't think a right handed power bat has a spot on the roster. Especially considering a power RHB was one of the 3 "must gets" for the Twins this past offseason which Falvey failed at acquiring, settling for Carlos Santana. Rooker would immediately slot into the DH position for the Twins. That said, I don't think Rooker is likely to be coming back to the Twins because the ask for him is going to be pretty high. My guess is he'd eat up like a Marco Raya and Gabriel Gonzalez pretty quick, and Falvey would be loathe to present the optics on such a trade.

Hurt still. Not again. He's on the 60 day IL right now. Rotator cuff strain/tear from mid-March. He started short toss in late April, moved to long toss 90 feet a month ago without initial pain, and head trainer, Nick Paparesta, was hoping to start mound work and ramp up sometime this month. Hold your breath. If there's a setback, I'd bet money his career is over. https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotatwins/comments/1cs4qpx/park_a_note_out_of_the_nick_paparesta_checkin/?rdt=61383

For a guy who raked the way he did in MLB last year, who still has another option after this year and isn't close to arb eligible, he's going to get some chances.

He did not do better than 1.084 OPS, and 100 PA isn't that small of a sample size in AAA for a guy who proved himself in MLB already. The Twins should have just been waiting for things to click. Looking at the numbers behind the scenes to find red flags like a couple huge games and a bunch of cold ones or BABIP issues or lack of production from a significant area of a player's game: Doing it day in, day out? Yes 18/20 games reached base, hits in 16/20 games, 4 multi-hit games. Unsustainable BABIP? No. BABIP .292 over the past 20 games. Plate Discipline? Yes. He's taking walks and not striking out. Hitting for power? Yes. .400 ISO over the past 20 games, 8 HRs, only 1 game with multiple HRs Questions about Wallner's plate approach and being an MLB caliber player can only really be answered at the MLB level.

I like the City Connect uniforms in a vacuum. They'd look great on a college team, but that's honestly what Nike seems to specialize in. Maybe these things will target a younger demographic MLB needs to reach? Love seeing the walk off. These are games the Twins need to be able to win.

My takeaways: Good first: Wallner: He's ready. The guy is back on the ball, and he's been doing it every day. He's reached base 18 of his past 20 games, owning a .293/.391/.693 OPS 1.084 wRC+ 169 line over that time including 12 of those games with a wRC+ 143 or higher. Morris: He's been missing more bats in his last couple of starts/psuedo starts at AA. He's quickly passing Raya on my prospect list along with Zebby Matthews. Festa: 6.0 IP, 10Ks, 0BBs. 4/5 past starts were okay to great. Yep. He's passed Varland on the rotational depth for me. He's done the things I didn't expect he could do (limit walks while also missing bats). He should be the next rotation call up. Camargo: Nice to see him playing and hitting. We need a better catching option than Vazquez at the plate. Less gooder. Aaron Sabato. Nice homer, and he's had a few nice games this year, but I think his bust status is confirmed alongside Keoni Cavaco. These guys still being in the minors is fallout from the new CBA and increased compensation and benefits for MiLB players. Historically, I think the players were inclined to hang it up, but teams are probably going to need to learn to be more aggressive with releasing players in the future. I know the Twins did officially cut Soularie (now in the Giants' system), but there were some behavioral issues as I recall. Raya limited to 51 pitches in 4.0 pretty clean innings. Any hope the Twins were stretching him out seems dim at this point.

Assuming you mean OPS over .700 rather than OBP? Haha. Wallner is OPS'ing about .860 for the past 40 games. Over 1.000 for his past 20 games. That said, I think the Twins will wait to recall him until Margot slumps again. To me, it seems like Wallner's struggles were probably mental.

I don't think there's any likelihood Bellinger commands $30MM AAV on a multi-year deal at this point, and he'll definitely be looking for a long term contract. If he finishes the year at a wRC+ of 117, I'd think he'll get something around 5-6yrs $100-150MM or so. The Twins don't have the pockets for it, IMHO, though. I was hoping they'd pry Jarren Duran away from the Red Sox this past offseason.

If any team grabs Abreu, they'll pay league minimum because the Astros have to cover the rest of the contract amount. i.e. Twins sign Abreu and they pay him $760k for 2025, the Astros need to pay the balance of his $19.5MM owed. if the Twins sign Abreu and they pay him $19.0MM for 2025, the Astros need to pay the balance at $500k owed. Thus, no team will sign Abreu for more than league minimum. I'm sure a team will bring him in on a MiLB deal. The Rockies seem like a good fit. The Rockies owners are idiots who won't part with any of their good players who they control for long, but a guy like Abreu might be able to find his game and hit a few home runs with the help of Coors Field to attract enough attention to flip at the deadline.

The Astros had no GM/Assistant GM when Abreu was signed as Jim Crane declined a 1 year contract in Nov. 2022. Their owner negotiated the Abreu contract himself so there's no real reason to hold a non-existent GM accountable. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/06/astros-release-jose-abreu.html#:~:text=1%3A05pm%3A The Astros announced,to Abreu on that deal.

It's true! Gallo went 4-4 with a BB on 8/12/23! That was one of 8 multi-hit games for Gallo last year. Wallner has 2 of those in his past 10 games. Gallo also got hits in back to back games 11 times last season. Wallner's done that 8 times in his past 10 games. Last 10 = .341/.420/.818 OPS 1.238, 10.0% BB, 24.0% K Last 20 = .269/.370/.641 OPS 1.011, 13.0% BB, 22.8% K Last 40 = .233/.330/.533 OPS .863 11.9% BB, 31.2% K It's clear Wallner has heated up in AAA and probably gotten past his mental wall.

It is hard to follow, and there are philosophical questions which come into play as to who gets credit for drafting and development. For example, based on what I read, the Twins get all the credit for drafting and developing Joe Ryan despite the fact they did neither thing, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are the reason the Twins were moved so far up rankings somewhere or another in the evaluation. I appreciate the authors efforts to quantify the development in a meaningful way. These types of projects are enormous undertakings that are probably best left to data sites and active databases. Maybe Fangraphs will take up the data processing at some point in the future.

A mid rotation starter who's been struggling a bit isn't what I'd be excited about.

The Twins need a left handed platoon bat like a submarine needs a screen door. If they want a lefty bat, all they have to do is look down to St. Paul (Wallner), (Julien) or Wichita (Rodriguez). As far as pitchers are concerned, the Twins probably don't need the depth as adding to the top creates depth and provides the team with a playoff caliber starter they honestly need. I don't think Severino is probably that guy anymore, even if his results are decent. He's not the ace he looked to be 5 years ago.

It's super straight forward. Q) Is Varland a legitimate option as a rotation arm? Yes -> Keep him pitching in the rotation in AAA to see if he can get better results. No -> Move him to the bullpen and hope for the best. We're probably on answer "No" regardless of whether or not skimming the box score made him look good in his last start. He didn't miss bats against one of the worst teams in baseball, had a 108mph rocket ship come off one of his pitches, allowed a 12.5% barrel rate (terrible) and had an average exit velocity of 91mph (terrible). Even after the game when he was interviewed, he wasn't at all unhappy about coming out after 5.0 shutout innings. You could tell he knew he was lucky not to have owned a few crooked number innings out there. Depth isn't a concern. Varland is either a legit MLB caliber starter or he isn't. Wishing he was simply because there aren't other options doesn't transform Varland into a good option.

No team in baseball wouldn't want to add a 4 WAR (All Star level) player. Guess All Stars are "good" not "great" Both Bellinger and Chapman are on pace to perform at about that level. Btw, no Twins position player on the team put up 4 WAR last year. Being angry about a team spending $3.5MM-7.5MM per WAR for a one year contract on a well known, veteran player who isn't in the twilight of their career in free agency is highly unusual to say the least.

I think it's great Woods Richardson took note of his lack of performance and took steps to address it. For years the Twins had been trying to get him to adjust and stick to better mechanics, but the way this article words things makes me pretty concerned about the coaching situation in the minors. Why did Woods Richardson have to approach the coaches? Why wasn't this brought to him before as a "you should try this because you're not good enough to make the big show as you are"? Is it not the job of coaches and the development team to identify ways to correct or improve pitcher performance? I've considered the situation as SWR being uncoachable until he finally realized he was about to wash out, but perhaps it's the Twins' development team which needs some additional management? Woods Richardson, I think, has saved the Twins rotation. I don't think it's an overstatement, despite some of the commenters thinking the statement is just hyperbole. Pablo Lopez has been pitching like Dallas Keuchel, there was a major downgrade to our rotation from last year watching 3 of our top 5 opening day pitchers walk (Gray, Mahle, Maeda), and the front office sourced zero external replacements. This left the rotation depth razor thin, relying on a failed starter who was moved to the bullpen (Varland) to slot back in when a dubious option (Desclafani) went down for the season before ever pitching a game. SWR has gotten results like we'd expect of Lopez, while Lopez has pitched more similarly to what we would have expected from Varland, Desclafani or Woods Richardson himself. There's no good reason to suspect the results to continue as they have been up to this point as SWR has a 4.09 xFIP right now, and he hasn't generated a lot of pop ups to make the HR/FB rate stay well below average, but the Twins' position in the standings would probably look a lot more bleak if he hadn't come up and put on his best MLB ace costume for a few starts now. The 97mph fastball from last game might suggest there's more velo in the tank and more ceiling to find in his game, but I'm already a bit concerned with durability of suddenly adding 3-4mph one day in Spring Training, let alone 7mph+. Hopefully, SWR remains healthy and continues to improve as he learns to pitch with this sudden and unexpected added velocity.

No, he wasn't doing well in AAA to end the season. He was doing poorly. From 8/1+ in AAA last year: 4.80 FIP. The 1.28 WHIP (acceptable) came with an unsustainable .239 BABIP. For example, on 8/2, Woods Richardson went 4 innings with a 0.00 ERA, but he walked 6 guys (13.5 BB/9). The results on a quick surface looked better, but what was really happening underneath was not. Based on the underlying 20% K rate (poor), 13% BB rate (terrible), and the expected home run rate based on fly balls, I'll continue to believe all Woods Richardson's box cars had derailed through the entire season.