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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Add Jordan Montgomery to the list... even though the Diamondbacks are still at 38% to make the playoffs. Last 3 starts for Monty 2.70 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 4.04 xFIP. Not super excited about Scherzer. He's going to have to "prove it" on the field that he's healthy, especially considering him being a39 and having not pitched a single inning this year, and his injuries which threatened to keep him out of the playoffs last year as well.
  2. bean5302
    Carlos Santana had 0.4 fWAR coming into June, good for probably about 10th in the league. Behind Mountcastle, Naylor, Guerrero, Jr., Perez, etc so I suppose with a snapshot in time, Santana is the highest WAR atm, but that's subject to change quickly. Royce Lewis is one of the greatest player assets for the game today. There is no player I've seen in recent history who is more charismatic than Lewis, and what he's doing on the field... please stay healthy, is insane.
  3. bean5302
    He blew a save. Game was in Oakland so they didn't have to bat in the 9th. Officially recorded in the box score. Duran's issue is his 4 seam fastball hasn't been as valuable; however, that could just be a function of the Twins not calling for it. 50% (2022), 45% (2023), 38% (2024). Stuff+ grades Duran's fastball as good as ever. Maybe... just maaayyyybee, the Twins spreadsheets should allow Duran to throw it more.
  4. bean5302
    So about whipping boys/scapegoats Farmer and Margot. There's an easy way to visualize how they've been expected to perform at the plate over a rolling stretch of games. It takes into consideration how hard and far they've been hitting balls, how often they've struck out or taken walks. The rolling xwOBA on BaseballSavant.com, including all the good at bats you missed, and all the terrible at bats you remember. You can clearly see Margot and Farmer have trended upwards recently over a rolling 100 plate appearances. I've added names and date ranges so people can visualize how the rolling xwOBA works. If you were to pick a dot directly above the date ranges, that's what the dot (point) on the line would represent. Farmer struggled to end last year, and his struggles continued into this year, but you can also see how sporadic his plate appearances have been this year. Both Farmer and Margot are holding their own right now. There's no good reason to ditch them at the moment. For the record, I despised, and still despise both moves in keeping Farmer, and bringing in Margot. Have to hope for 1 of 2 things. 1) They both tank over the next few weeks (worse outcome) while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs so Margot and Farmer can be DFA'd and replaced. 2) The both keep hitting better so their season values creep up over league average (best outcome) and they can be moved while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs. This outcome is better since the Twins win more games. .
  5. bean5302
    Just typing something out doesn't make it true.
  6. bean5302
    Yeah, I wouldn't mind his 2.95 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 2.76 xFIP right now. But he cost $10MM this year!!!! Falvey needed that money for Margot and Farmer. At least Santana is holding his own at this point... not that Miranda wouldn't still be better.
  7. bean5302
    The negativity around Wallner is getting comical... Wallner last 5 games 57.1% K rate... lazy Wallner, he's broken again Wallner 5 games prior 8.3% K rate... ZOMG, Wallner is Luiz Arraez with power who takes walks! Wallner last 10 games 31.1% K rate. Expand your sample size...
  8. bean5302
    I didn't realize Matthews was throwing that hard. The more I think about it... the more I wouldn't be mad if the Twins moved Paddack to the bullpen and replaced him with Zebby Matthews since Festa just can't be consistent.
  9. bean5302
    I should note, I'd like the Twins to aim higher than Berrios. Like seemingly every year, the Twins need an ace... It's unusual to be able to acquire a pitcher like that with more than 1.5 years of team control remaining, but pretty unheard of to get them with more than 2.5 years left. Gray* (StL), Gallen (Ari), Flaherty (Det), Crochet (ChiW), Cease (SD), Snell (SF), Bassitt* (Tor), Berrios* (Tor) would all present some interest to me depending on how they pitch toward the trade deadline, assuming their teams were in the mood to sell, but I'd be more interested in the higher ceiling arms, and some track record would be nice. Guys who could potentially fill the role of staff ace. Gallen, especially, though he'd be expensive. *Player has Full or Partial NTC.
  10. bean5302
    I think a person would look at Berrios as a #2b/#3 pitcher. Same range as Lopez would normally be viewed, but Berrios' peripherals don't look good this year despite the results so there's certainly reason to be concerned there, though the velocity is still there. Maybe a 3.5 WAR guy. That values about $28MM per season x 2.5 years = $70MM AFV. Less the $18.7MM per season over the next two years (if Berrios doesn't tank, he'll opt out) so $37.4MM That's a net value of like $32.6MM. Wallner is probably 25MM on his own. Festa is probably about 15MM on his own. Gonzalez is probably about 10MM on his own. So 50MM in value in exchange for 37MM is a pretty big overpay for Berrios. Toronto is currently 5 GB of the Wildcard so they'll "probably" be sellers, but no guarantees. It would be interesting to have a workhorse like Berrios back.
  11. bean5302
    You literally just quoted yourself in that post, and then you proceeded to pick an argument with yourself. This isn't the first time you've done it recently...
  12. bean5302
    Of course my response was to toss in an overall production metric which takes a giant dump on the singular, irrelevant statistic used. They focused on a single, ultra elite, perfect cherry, complete with silk ribbon shipped in an swarovski crystal encrustsed gift box. Shipped with a certificate of authenticity and hand selected by a master cherry picking artist with a PHD in cherry picking. Their cherries are raised in above ground planters on rotisserie turntables so each cherry can experience the perfect and equal amount of sunlight. They water their cherries only with the finest spring water sourced locally from volcanic hot springs rich in the finest minerals, before being chilled with cool ocean breezes, and then combined with a secret combination of exotic whiskey mash composting fertilizer before being individually hand watered. Simply put, it is the world's finest cherry. It has no equal. Tell me. 3 HRs in 4 games is pretty good, yes? That's a 122 HR pace which would practically double the highest HR total in MLB history, yes? He had a .313 OBP over those horrible games. Would you want a hitter on the Twins who hits 122 HR's a year? Even if they struck out 350 times? Of course, neither of those stats are even remotely sustainable. They're both preposterous which is why 4 game sample sizes are ludicrous to try and evaluate a player. In this case, the numbers were cherry picked as described above. Choosing a a singular statistic designed specifically to support a position, especially when the overall picture does not reflect the statistic chosen.
  13. bean5302
    It starts with Paddack struggling yet again. Also, today was technically Duran's first blown save this year despite not being as elite as expected. I'd favor skipping Paddack's next start and moving him into the bullpen. I guess that probably brings up Varland in Paddack's rotation. I'd like to see Festa, but he just can't put together good starts reliably in AAA after being knocked around again yesterday so there's not really a good reason to believe he'd be much better than Varland at this point. The Twins desperately need a high end starter.
  14. bean5302
    Yeah, I'd hope if Julien was able to OPS .850 over a full season he'd be the starting 2B because he'd be a 6-7 WAR player and MVP candidate. (though I suppose not as valuable under Rocco Baldelli's gotta rest 'em all! pokemon mantra limiting a full time player to like 110 games) Julien is not going to OPS .850. More like .775 if he's able to make his adjustments, which... who knows if he can? He's as good as Jorge "Rock Hands" Polanco at 2B and OPS'ing .775 makes Julien a potential 3-4 WAR player. That's near All Star caliber performance. Brooks Lee's scouting profile suggests he's as poor a runner as Julien or worse so if you're looking for elite defense, I'd be a little surprised if Lee has the athleticism. I'd say Lee might have Brian Dozier defensive ceiling of average-ish.
  15. bean5302
    4 games (where his OPS was 1.200... LOL) you're like hand selecting premium cherries which have been picked
  16. bean5302
    ...when you shamelessly cherry pick your stats while talking about cherry picking being a problem.
  17. bean5302
    I'll help to answer your question.
  18. bean5302
    Can't understand why you want an aging #5 starter like Tyler Anderson on a $13MM contract for this and next year or why you think the Twins should/would give up anything of value to get him. It's like extending Desclafani to a $13MM deal... Career = 4.18 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.54 xFIP 2024 = 2.48 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 5.09 xFIP One of these things doesn't fit the rest...
  19. bean5302
    Not sure what you want from Wallner. OPS 5.000 or bust? He was one of the best hitters in all MLB last year, in a not insignificant sample size of 254 plate appearances so you'd think that would earn him a little leeway. Wallner's last 20 games he has 14 games with a wRC+ of 135+ while reaching base in 18 of 20 games owning a .333/.409/.821 OPS 1.230 wRC+ 202. But, let's go ahead and test your theory. Here are the starter ERAs after Wallner hit against them. For reference, median ERA in the International League right now is 4.90 for pitchers with 40+ innings. 5/29 = 5.03 5/30 = 3.75, promoted to MLB 5/31 = 6.22 6/1 = 6.15 6/2 = 5.64 6/5 = 2.97 wRC+ 143 6/6 = 7.29 6/6(2) = 7.46 6/7 = 3.86 wRC+ -4 6/8 = 3.86 (journeyman MLB) wRC+ -100 6/9 = 3.65 combined (1.0-2.0 innings 5 pitchers) wRC+ 40 6/11 = 3.66 wRC+ 143 6/12 = 3.86 (journeyman MLB) wRC+ 135 6/13 = 7.74 (0.1 IP), next 5.2 IP = 2.28 ERA wRC+ 492 6/14 = 9.85 6/15 = 4.50 wRC+ 631 6/16 = 4.26 wRC+ 380 6/18 = 4.79 (journeyman MLB) 6/19 = 5.77 6/20 = 3.95 (came in with 3.26...) wRC+ 192 10 of the 15 starters he's seen with an ERA of 4.50 or lower over the past couple weeks, and Wallner has performed well in 7 of those games. Of course, I'd imagine some of Wallner's stats have come from relievers, too, but whatever. I can't wait to see the next odd theory people propose as to why Wallner is no good.
  20. bean5302
    I expect the Twins will do both things you're saying they will not do.
  21. bean5302
    Wallner over his last insignificant 14 PA, another way to put it is this: .214/.313/.857 OPS 1.170 wRC+ 173 12.5% BB, 56.3% K. He's taking walks. The K rate looks rough, but in the 4 games before your tiny sample size, his K rate was 10.0%... which is why 4 game samples are not relevant.
  22. bean5302
    To clarify a couple things. OAA metrics are largely physical talent related. How far a player travels in "x" amount of time and how fast a throw gets to the base in "y" amount of time, and it translates the expected outs vs. actual into a value. In a way, they're kind of like hypothetical ceilings on performance. They ignore positioning, and good positioning can make a huge difference in the actual number of outs produced. OAA (and it's components) seem to be the least repeatable/reliable advanced fielding metric, IMHO. While I'm loathe to accept it, the "eye test" is still at least relevant because a lot of defensive value is still based on error rate, and errors are subjective based on the scorer. Julien has not been good at applying tags, for example, but it doesn't get recorded as an error. OAA + UZR/150 + Eye Test makes for a pretty good evaluation. Julien is absolutely better than he was when he came up. A lot better. I've seen him make some very nice pivot throws, etc. Speed changes over time as Statcast attempts to pick events where it thinks a player needs to go all out running, then averages those events into a number. If there is a small sample size and a fast runner jogs out what they think is a known outcome instead of full sprinting, it can throw the numbers way off. Julien is not the slowest runner on the team. At 26.6 ft/sec, he's a tick below MLB average this year (27.0). The following Twins are slower this year. Jeffers 26.4 Kepler 26.3 Farmer 26.1 Miranda 26.1 Santana 25.9 Lewis 25.8 Larnach 25.7 Vazquez 24.8 See the bolded names. This is why you can't completely trust sprint speeds. Small sample sizes, and playing through injuries can impact speed quite a bit. Lewis is about a 28 ft/sec runner. Kepler is probably 27 ft/sec these days. Julien was 27 ft/sec last year in a big sample (MLB average).
  23. bean5302
    WAR is not a counting stat. It's similar to the concept of wRC+, positional adjustment and OAA multiplied by an innings played factor. Santana can still finish the year at negative WAR because a bad day today totally erases a good day yesterday as if that good day never happened in the first place. Right now, Santana sure seems locked in, and it's great for the Twins.
  24. bean5302
    I think it'd be surprising if he landed somewhere given the fact he passed through waivers last time the Twins DFA'd him, and he certainly didn't improve his results. I think he'll probably wind up back in St. Paul after he clears.
  25. bean5302
    Brooks Lee is really getting it done out there right now. I think he's going to force the Twins' hand after the All Star Break if he keeps this production up. While the RHB is still SSS, he's showing results.
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