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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Yes, I agree. Intangibles are the perfect way to justify keeping the worst baseball player in MLB on the roster. Unfortunately, Vazquez is the worst catcher even in sand lot baseball history because he has a negative chakra aura and his healing crystal ratio is out of sync with the flat Earth orbit impact on the sun's lunar cycle. This contributes to paint fade on the players' favorite cars and makes them depressed so none of them play as well as they should. Oh, if only we had some advanced metrics which track all that!
  2. bean5302
    Manfred in the article. Basically, this is a thinly veiled threat that Diamond Sports needs to get their stuff in order because nobody is going to contract with them in the future at this rate. It's not just MLB who is watching Diamond Sports closely.
  3. bean5302
    I don't think Varland is ahead of Festa on the depth chart at this point. Last 4 starts at AAA 6.53 ERA, 4.53 FIP. 8.71 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.60 WHIP, gave up a HR every game for the last 3 games.
  4. bean5302
    No. He must be demoted after every game he pitches. It's mandatory.
  5. bean5302
    Depends where you look and how you quantify things. fWAR or bWAR? Quality starts? Winning percentage of games started? Berrios was massively better than his ERA suggests in Toronto. I like what SWR is doing, but... I'd take Berrios today over SWR, no question. In 25 of his 44 starts with the Blue Jays in 2021-2022, Berrios left with 5.0+ innings pitched and an ERA of 4.05 or less. That's 57%, which is front line starter territory. The Blue Jays won 29 of those 44 games (107 win season pace). Joe Ryan, over 2023-2024, has produced 18 starts in 40 attempts for the Twins or 45% with 5.0+ innings and an ERA of 4.05 or less and fans around here consider Ryan to be a front line starter it seems. The Twins have won 22 of the 40 games Ryan has started over that span (89 win season pace) The pitcher most comparable to Berrios in our rotation is Pablo Lopez.
  6. bean5302
    LOL, WHAT???
  7. bean5302
    From my understanding, Kepler's swing spends very little time in the meat of the strike zone because of how it travels which makes it harder to barrel up balls regularly. Kepler is hitting more fly balls than ever in his career considering his low pop up rate so any thoughts that he's become a line drive hitter are probably a little off base. One thing that does stand out is his max exit velocity. That's kind of a "raw power" stat. Kepler's tied his career max from 2016. I suspect he's been doing quite a bit of strength training over the past few years. Kepler is also doing more to avoid strike outs, swinging more often than any time in his career, but also making more contact than any time in his career. I think the player I most identify with "I swing for the fences when I shouldn't" is Eddie Rosario, but Kepler's plate approach may be showing what could have been in his prime. That said, I'm 100% positive Kepler is being significantly aided by the lack of the extreme shift.
  8. bean5302
    I can't fathom the people defending Vazquez as having value to an MLB club in here. There are 30 catchers in MLB with 100 plate appearances this year. The median catcher has +0.3 WAR defensive value. Christian Vazquez is +0.5 WAR, on pace for about +1.6 WAR on the season, but if he was an every day player we could double that to 3.2 WAR, of that 2.0 WAR from his excellent defense and the rest coming from just playing catcher. His OPS, an utterly miserable .410. (Yes, that's his OPS) is the worst of any MLB player with 100 plate appearances this year. Literally, dead last worst by .030 points, mind you. An OPS of .690 is around league average right now. To sum it up across a full season as a qualified player: Vazquez +2.0 WAR defense. Vazquez (3.5) WAR offense. Gary Sanchez vs. Christian Vazquez last year and this year, including Sanchez's rough defense and Vazquez's lauded defense. 1.7 WAR vs. 0.9 WAR 0.4 WAR vs. (0.4) WAR
  9. bean5302
    I went to a couple Rays Fan sites. I did some searching. Didn't find much about Joe Ryan bellyaching.
  10. bean5302
    Please stop searching the internet to find some random generic calculator website for your baseball calculations, and then referencing that website to spread blatant misinformation. Per an actual baseball site (fangraphs.com), developer and host of the fWAR stat MLB owners actually wanted to use as a basis for arbitration value in negotiation with the MLBPA. https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/rate-stats/ As you can see per an actual baseball website, Matt Wallner's K rate is 31.5% last year. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-wallner/26466/stats?position=OF
  11. bean5302
    Yeah.... except at bats doesn't include walks. Or hit by pitches. Or sacrifices. There's a handy-dandy website called fangraphs which gives you the number where you don't have to calculate it (wrong) yourself.
  12. bean5302
    What's he going to coach? How to secure multi-year deals when there are better, cheaper options on the free agent market?
  13. bean5302
    I mean, he's only a 2.5hr flight and 4 MiLB levels away from St. Paul. Pretty close, really.
  14. bean5302
    Demote Wallner to AA = spot opened. DFA Margot, promote Keirsey = spot opened.
  15. bean5302
    Wallner was on pace for about a 4 WAR season last year. That's as good as Kepler has ever been and an All Star-ish level of production. Wallner did not have a 37.5% strike out rate. It was 31.5%, which is 2% better than, say, defensive stud Michael A. Taylor. I don't disagree with sending Wallner down to A ball. I advocated for that 45 days ago so he can build some confidence. He's clearly pressing too hard based on a recent interview recap Seth Stohs featured.
  16. bean5302
    Literally 13 days ago Julien was carrying a wRC+ 125. Guy goes on a 10 game slump (still better than league average) and there are calls for his demotion the day after he goes 2-2 with a walk. Jeez. Also, Brooks Lee!!!! OMG, Brooks Lee!!!! is at the Florida Complex league (rookie ball), not AAA.
  17. bean5302
    No top 20 prospects. Baseballtradevalues has gone pretty much totally paid only so I can only guess Vazquez's value. I'll be generous and estimate Vazquez's FV at $5MM with his salary for this and next year at $15MM. So right now, we'll say Vazquez is worth -$10MM. A prospect in that category is probably around #5-10ish in the system. Falvey can make the bed he's been laying in. Trading away prospects to try and save a few bucks smacks of the old Phil Hughes deal to San Diego. The Twins parted with a Comp B pick in that move.
  18. bean5302
    The point is the Rays are the premier pitching development team in MLB. The model every team wishes they could follow successfully, a team whose made the playoffs 5 consecutive years, and made the World Series in 2020 despite playing in arguably the toughest division in baseball year in and year out. The Rays get beaten in trades sometimes, and the Joe Ryan trade was one of those times. Joe Ryan was a steal for Nelson Cruz, but considering the Rays churn out a Joe Ryan like every year, it's probably not absolutely eating them up. Now, for the Twins, who draft and develop 1 Joe Ryan every 10 years, it'd be a much bigger loss.
  19. bean5302
    I watched the last couple of seasons. Ryan comes out, pitches well early, Twins fans lose their minds and declare Ryan an elite playoff starter in the making, then the league adjusts to Ryan's changes. That's what I've seen. First 50% starts vs. Second 50% ERA 2022 - 2.99 vs. 4.14 2023 - 2.98 vs. 6.62
  20. bean5302
    I'm not sure if you're tipping your cap because Falvey hasn't been successful in developing virtually any reliable talent at the MLB level or if you're being serious that it's a good thing the farm system is still hanging in there middle of the pack style? LOL.
  21. bean5302
    The Wallner hate really needs to stop! lol. Seriously, though. In his short 2023, Wallner was as good as Kepler has ever been in his entire career, but Wallner's struggling at the plate right now (like Kepler has done much of his career). Emmanuel Rodriguez, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner or a different cheap player will need to fill Kepler's shoes next year. Austin Martin is a 4th outfielder like I suspect Keirsey is. Seriously, though. Saying the Twins shouldn't extend a qualifying offer to Kepler is just good sense, and I don't think anybody "hates" Kepler, just that Kepler is an expensive 2-3 WAR luxury for the Twins, and there are better options given the Twins' payroll limitations. Correa $37MM, Lopez $22MM, Buxton $15MM, Vazquez $10MM, Paddack $7.5MM, Dobnak $3MM. That's $90MM which is guaranteed to be tied up. 2025 status: Ryan Jeffers Arb2 $6MM, Willi Castro Arb 3 $8MM, Bailey Ober Arb 1 $3MM, Joe Ryan Arb 1 $4MM, Griffen Jax Arb 1 $3MM, Jhoan Duran Arb 1 $4MM, Trevor Larnach Arb 1 $3MM that's $31MM more. Plus 15 other players at or close to their salary this year probably another $15MM or so. That's $136MM assuming the Twins cut ties with Thielbar, Farmer, and Kepler. That's the situation the Twins are in right now.
  22. bean5302
    So Teoscar Hernandez's bat is dramatically superior to Kepler's, and so is his durability. Beyond that, Hernandez is a lot more reliable production-wise, but his down year obviously scared some suitors off. Hernandez vs. Kepler average of WAR, wRC+, plate appearances 2021 = 3.9 vs. 2.2, 132 vs. 97, 595 vs. 490 2022 = 2.9 vs. 1.9, 130 vs. 95, 535 vs. 446 2023 = 2.0 vs. 2.9, 105 vs. 124, 678 vs. 493 2024 = 1.6 vs. 1.4, 137 vs. 144, 228 vs. 131 Now, there were predictions Hernandez was going to get as high as 4yrs $80MM because he was better than Kepler by a mile in almost every way, but he ultimately settled for $23.5MM with $8.5MM deferred over 10 years so Hernandez only makes $15.5MM this year. Hernandez was not extended a QO, and that probably would have have reduced his value considerably. Kepler will have to compete directly with Hernandez this year, and a much more robust free agent market for position players this season.
  23. bean5302
    Don't forget about Carlos Santana! I have it on good authority he's a total stud. There was a forum thread gloating about Santana's value and taunting the idiots who didn't think Santana was going to rake this year! Thread was from a couple weeks ago. Oddly silent recently... LOL
  24. bean5302
    I agree. The Twins' situation on trading Kepler could be tenuous and depend on Matt Wallner getting out of his head and relaxing a little, and Trevor Larnach continuing to prove the production this year isn't a fluke.
  25. bean5302
    Festa is probably the most likely to get called up next. There are injuries in the rotation fairly frequently over the year. I don't think Varland has much more leash as a starter in AAA at this point. He's getting shelled down there.
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