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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Ryan Jeffers is just regressing to the mean a bit. His wOBA was like .425 while his xwOBA was like .360. Over his past 20 games, Jeffers is .125/.233/.250 OPS .483 wRC+ 46. Vazquez is .113/.138/.194 OPS .332 wRC+ (9). Yeah. Negative 9. Overall, Jeffers has a wOBA of .355 vs. an xwOBA of .332 this year. Much more in line with who he's been across his career.
  2. bean5302
    Yep. Starting to feel like Vikings fans around here.
  3. bean5302
    Baldelli's macro probably has 100 go-to statements in it, and one of them is pointing to the wrong label. Messes with his results, but the macro doesn't actually hit a run time error so it's assumed to be working.
  4. bean5302
    Even if the Rockies had help for us, their idiot owner would veto any trades in the expectations a 2008 miracle comeback was on it's way, LOL.
  5. bean5302
    At the end of the season, this is ultimately true. 1/3 of the way into it, not so much. The Guardians are being floated by a ridiculous BABIP with RISP, and only a couple of their batters look like they might continue this breakout. Their rotation is poor, and their bullpen is going to get worn down. Right now, the Guardians have been lucky. If they are going to keep their winning ways up, they're going to have to play a lot better overall, not just unsustainably great only when runners are on base.
  6. bean5302
    The Twins are right smack dab in the middle of their competitive window. If they're in the hunt and not buying, the front office is incompetent. Also, Falvey is undoubtedly feeling a lot of heat. His contract runs out this year. Pretty sure he wants to keep his job.
  7. bean5302
    I don't see any evidence he took a discount, and he signed for right in the range he was expected to sign. 3yrs $65MM to 4yrs $90MM was where pretty much everybody expected. Falvey wasn't interested in bringing Gray back, and his comments regarding Gray in particular were pretty cold. Given the contract Gray signed $10MM this year, it's clear he was open to a creative compensation structures. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4957839/2023/10/12/twins-sonny-gray-free-agency/ While Sonny might have been able to eek out a few more bucks someplace, it's clear he wanted to play somewhere that looked like a winner with a good atmosphere, but he stated he wanted to be compensated fairly as well.
  8. bean5302
    I heard he went 1st overall in 2017 and he was everything the scouting reports made him out to be
  9. bean5302
    Said exactly nobody with any kind of job in baseball.
  10. bean5302
    Kirilloff's probably a blind squirrel finding a stash of acorns right now, but here's hoping his issues are mental and this gives him a big confidence boost. Over his past 10 games: .296/.333/.593 OPS .926, wRC+ 156, 6.7% BB, 36.7% K, He's making it work on some big barrels in a very small sample size. Just 17 batted ball events since he's striking out a ton, and one lone line drive over this .400 BABIP sample size.
  11. bean5302
    It's not a drastic drop off, though. Varland had a 3.97 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.91 xFIP at AAA St. Paul in 2023. 5.31 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.58 xFIP at AAA St. Paul this year. Projections for a 4.00 ERA/FIP pitcher in AAA making the jump to MLB are not good, and Varland was a bad starter last year with the Twins. He had a 5.30 ERA with a 5.49 FIP last year at MLB as a starter. Only his cutter was a plus pitch for him in results in 2023, and even then, I'm pretty sure it was only a plus out of the bullpen. No knock to Varland. Based on his draft position and scouting reports on him, he never should have made it above AA ball so making it to the big show and putting in many appearances and in the playoffs was already a big success. If he's going to continue his MLB career, it seems all but certain it's going to need to come out of the bullpen.
  12. bean5302
    I've seen all I care of Kirilloff and his career 0.0 WAR in 871 plate apperances. I don't think there's anything he can do short of PA wRC+ 120 or higher for at least 200-300 plate appearances while not being totally shielded from lefties to convince me he's going to make it. That said, if Kirilloff doesn't do that, it's probably his last year in a Twins uniform. Wallner has more options, and he was ice cold to start the year. Wallner's going to need at least another 100 PA of raking before I'd suspect the Twins would be willing to close the book on Kirilloff to make space.
  13. bean5302
    Long term back issues are no fun. Hopefully, he finds a way to avoid major flare ups. Glad to see him back at AAA and I hope he excels.
  14. bean5302
    Yes, 1st round draft picks get written off permanently if the have a hiccup in year 1. Back to reality now...
  15. bean5302
    First round is first round. #8 vs. #28 projected. You're arguing top 50 vs. top 100 as a different league. You can deal with reality or re-write the world to suit you ego. Up to you.
  16. bean5302
    If you want to re-write the definition of words to mean something they don't, sure.
  17. bean5302
    Nothing to see here. If there was a good player to call up, Rocco, I want to relive my career through my players, and I would have been a superstar if I rested 3x a week Baldelli wouldn't have used them anyway.
  18. bean5302
    Sorry, but you guys are misremembering almost everything about Levi Michael. Lee and Michael were very similar players with similar results. College SS's. First round picks. Switch hitters. Profile as near MLB ready. Limited athleticism expected to probably push both off SS Mediocre power. Lauded hit tools. Twins fans lost their mind in the hype machines which told them what they wanted to hear, that Brooks Lee was a #1 overall pick (he wasn't) MLB #7 https://www.mlb.com/news/final-mlb-mock-draft-2022, CBS #7 https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2022-mlb-mock-draft-orioles-take-termarr-johnson-with-no-1-pick-kumar-rocker-to-padres/ Fangraphs #8 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-mock-draft/ Let's take a look at some Baseball America and Keith Law pre-draft reviews: Player 1 Player 2 First appearances over AA through first two seasons (cup of coffee + long season) Player 1 - 307 PA .294/.365/.473 OPS .839 wRC+ 119, 10.1% BB, 16.0% K Player 2 - 319 PA .278/.382/.415 OPS .797 wRC+ 130, 11.8% BB, 19.5% K Michael (a23) was 1 year older than Lee (a22) when he started raking in AA. Lee is certainly better than Michael, though it's debatable how much at this stage, but you guys are already basically proclaiming Lee a superstar ready to replace guys in the MLB lineup, and he's only marginally better than a guy who was scouted the same, drafted first round, and had a similar performance to start his upper minors career at a similar age. A guy who never had a single plate appearance in MLB.
  19. bean5302
    Lots of other teams have fringe top-100 prospects as well. Just as easy for David Festa to fall out of the top-100 as it is for another Twins player to sneak in. It's never a bad thing to see Twins player or prospects doing well, and the Twins have quite a few guys who are turning some heads and distracting the scouting world at the moment. Here's hoping I'm wrong about the guys I don't think are as good as they're rated, and that the guys I think are going to be awesome really are, haha.
  20. bean5302
    I definitely expect the Guardians to collapse. I believe they're probably the 4th best team in the AL Central behind the Twins, Royals, and Tigers.
  21. bean5302
    Buyers = teams attempting to improve their on field MLB product for the current year. Standing pat = teams who neither significantly upgrade nor downgrade their current year team. Sellers = teams willing to worsen their on field MLB product for the current year in an attempt to improve future years. The Twins cannot be both buyers and sellers. I expect them to be buyers.
  22. bean5302
    I see Brooks Lee as a slightly better Levi Michael right now. Levi Michael never received a single plate appearance at the MLB level if I recall correctly. Lee's line from AAA last year: 168 PA, .237/.304/.428 OPS .732 wRC+ 78 doesn't impress me. his splits across AA/AAA last year were as LHB = .287/.366/.494 OPS .860 as RHB = .231/.266/.337 OPS .603 So, basically Lee was another lefty platoon bat, if he could even hit well enough to justify a utility role. Unfortunately, it's not like Lee has the raw athleticism to fall back on, either. He's graded as a poor runner with a fringe SS arm so he'd be expected to be more like Eduoard Julien than Royce Lewis in the field, making Lee's defensive utility role somewhat iffy as well. Lee needs a few months of AAA time to prove he's potentially MLB caliber. A month of hitting burned out A+ pitchers on non-roster invites desperately working out for a last chance at an MLB roster in Spring Training isn't enough to get me on board.
  23. bean5302
    Fangraphs has Byron Buxton at #45 of 315 batters with 100+ PA with a 47.9% pull rate with some hacks like Jose Altuve, Rhys Hoskins, Trea Turner, and Christian Yelich well above Buxton. The biggest problem Buxton's had this year is the fastball, and catching up to the fastball in specific. There's an article about it from a few weeks ago around here somewhere... where is it.... here, I found it. Buxton pulling the ball is a good thing right now. It means he's ahead of the pitch, where he needs to adjust his timing to catch up on the fastball, and I expect he'll get there.
  24. bean5302
    Just imagine what fans in here would have to talk about if the strike zone was automated. Nothing. Can't watch the game on TV, can't complain about the umpiring. Game threads would be dead! LOL
  25. bean5302
    They're pressing and they're mad so they take emotional, unprofessional at bats is my guess.
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