Setting the Odds for Minnesota Twins Prospects to Be Protected from the Rule 5 Draft

39 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

I definitely agree with your general point that we make a huge deal about potentially losing a player since so few are taken and those that are taken rarely become stars.  But... I think you'd also have to look at which position players were protected and how they're doing. Of course, another side of the conversation is that a ton of players get added way before they have to be. (Example, Zebby Matthews didn't have to be added until after the 2025 season.)

It is at this point debatable if it helped Zebby’s career or not to have been added. It seems like more and more there is a learning aspect that needs to occur at the major league level for those who are talented, but not in the elite category. 

For position players the consternation when someone is not added would appear to be misplaced given the results of the last few rule v drafts. Look at the AAA success of Chris Williams yet he was not claimed. So, is Olivar a better prospect? Rankings say yes, but if Williams were 22 and not what he is would that change the opinion? Rule v is now about drafting a player to help the club the year they are drafted. 

I think the odds for Olivar and Rosario are basically flipped. 

Rosario is a year younger and performed better at AA.  Similar defensive value (which isn't much) in both cases.

90% is maybe too high for either.  With only Raya as an absolute must, and several spots available, I think I'd protect both.

Raya will be the only one protected.  If they protect Olivar they must really believe he can be a true catcher going forward (I’m not in that camp based on the limited innings behind the plate the Organization has been willing to play him)

Kal’ia Rosario might be a guy who gets drafted but would be hard pressed to stay on a major league roster for an entire season with his lack of defensive chops, high K rate and limited experience in the high minors.  (Played ok in the AFL but nothing special).
 

Will Holland might be an interested 40 man stash.  Heard great things about his defense, speed and if the bat is a late development you might have something!   

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'd protect Jaylin Nowlin as well. He's inconsistent but has solid stuff and good K numbers that will probably play up on the pen, which is where I think he's going to end up.

I hope they protect Nowlin too. He looked good this past season, and as you suggested, he may end up as a bullpen weapon. 

22 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Here are my ratings and percentages for addition to the 40-man roster: 

3.) C Patrick Winkel 75%
          Gotta protect catchers, and as noted, with the likelihood that Vazquez gets dealt (I'm not ready for them to trade Jeffers!), having depth in the upper levels is huge. The Twins really love Winkel, especially behind the plate. Didn't hit a ton at St. Paul this year, but he is a capable offensive player. 

75%? Unless you have some inside information on this one, Winkel looks more like 0% to me. He didn't hit in the very friendly environment of Saint Paul in 2024, really only had one impressive season at the plate in the minors (2023 in AA, also in a good hitting environment) and doesn't look ready for MLB. He's the classic profile of the AAA catcher: maybe he can come up and be the backup for a few weeks if someone gets hurt, but you can't expect anything from him. While catching is thin across MLB, it's thin because there's a lot of guys like him floating around and few breakout prospects and not a lot of 2-way players.

Hard to see anyone picking him to be their backup catcher for the season out of the Rule 5. You grab him if you can send him up and down from AAA and Rule 5 doesn't allow that. If he got picked, I'd bet money he'd be returned.

Will Holland was great in AAA.   It was only 41 games so do the twins believe he truly "broke out".  If so, he would have the 2nd highest probability next to Raya.   He is a very good athlete with the defensive versatility to replace Castro.  If the breakout is real, he could be even better.  I think he is the type of position player another team would take a chance on.  For me it's Raya, Rosario, and Moran or MacLeod.  Perhaps both if they intend to dump Tonkin which would leave a couple spots open for additions.

Being they have several slots I would see Raya, Olivar, Rosario for sure.  I think they leave at least 1 spot if they want to take a rule 5 themselves.  I would agree Rosario could get taken by A's or another bottom feeding team looking to hopefully get a kid a year or two early.  When Badoo was first taken many were upset on here and he had a hot start in Detroit, but since he has not panned out very well. 

Personally, I am not high on Rosario.  He has pop, but his K-Rate is way too high.  Position players rarely get taken in rule 5 due to having to be on roster all year, only teams on a full rebuild can do it.  Pitchers can be stashed an only pitch in mop up games all year, but hitters will need to play and not just in mop up spots. 

I do like the comparison of Olivar to Chris Herrmann, who finished with a modest but respectable MLB career.   If the long-term plan is to not aggressively pursue free agent additions, this would make Olivar a reasonable 40 man roster addition.

I was previously excited about Cardenas' potential, but did not realize how mightily he struggled this season.  Was he playing hurt most of the time?  Not uncommon for a catcher, I suppose.  But I would think that kind of a season at that level would be enough to scare away anybody else from picking him in the Rule 5 draft, and at this point there is no urgency to protect him whatsoever.

With Camargo and Winkels both having unremarkable seasons, and Chris Williams failing to prove himself defensively, the catching corps in this franchise is overall pretty disappointing, including Vazquez.

all you guys were so wrong lol