Twins Make First Roster Cuts

After those ST showings, I'm becoming a Littell bit of a believer.

No Fernando Romero? That's a surprise. I mean, good for him, but I'd be shocked if he actually has a chance to break camp with the big club.

No Fernando Romero? That's a surprise. I mean, good for him, but I'd be shocked if he actually has a chance to break camp with the big club.

I've seen many people make similar comments in other threads and I don't understand this sentiment. Or at least I don't understand why Romero is getting singled out.

Everything I've read says he has the best stuff in the organization, Graterol excluded. He was absolutely dominant last season at AA until he got tired in his last couple of starts. If he is firing on all cylinders again why would any other rookie stand between him and a rotation spot?

I've seen many people make similar comments in other threads and I don't understand this sentiment. Or at least I don't understand why Romero is getting singled out.

 

Everything I've read says he has the best stuff in the organization, Graterol excluded. He was absolutely dominant last season at AA until he got tired in his last couple of starts. If he is firing on all cylinders again why would any other rookie stand between him and a rotation spot?

Because with Berrios, Santana, Odorizzi, and Mejia definitely ahead of him, and with Gibson, Hughes, Sanchez, and Slegers having more experience (and more dollars, for better or for worse), it's not as simple as you might put it, team-wise.

Also, he's never pitched above AA, and we all know that we can't trust spring training stats to overcome a real track record. So I'm going to assume that that's not what you're doing. But speaking track record, he's never even pitched a full season.

Also, even if he is the best option right away, the question is "by how much" because by leaving him down in the minors for a month they get an extra year of service time. Remember Kris Brant? I'm going to assume that you do. Is an extra win worth a year of a guy who can be an ace? I doubt it, but you may disagree.

Also, if he gets injured he gets service time, and again, that's a huge waste.

It's not about him being the best rookie. It's about whether he's among the best five right now, it's about how he fits into the organization, it's about how the decision impacts the team money-wise, it's about how the risk stacks up, it's about how much you can trust his stuff absent a real track record, etc., etc., etc.

You act like it's a super easy decision not to option him. For a million reasons it's not. And that's why people are bringing it up.

I wonder if they want to get a better look at Romero against Major League hitters in order to decide when and what order they start to bring up minor league prospects up during the season.  He perhaps has opened some eyes in front office and could be the first arm called up if someone goes down or under performs.

Because with Berrios, Santana, Odorizzi, and Mejia definitely ahead of him, and with Gibson, Hughes, Sanchez, and Slegers having more experience (and more dollars, for better or for worse), it's not as simple as you might put it, team-wise.

 

Also, he's never pitched above AA, and we all know that we can't trust spring training stats to overcome a real track record. So I'm going to assume that that's not what you're doing. But speaking track record, he's never even pitched a full season.

 

Also, even if he is the best option right away, the question is "by how much" because by leaving him down in the minors for a month they get an extra year of service time. Remember Kris Brant? I'm going to assume that you do. Is an extra win worth a year of a guy who can be an ace? I doubt it, but you may disagree.

 

Also, if he gets injured he gets service time, and again, that's a huge waste.

 

It's not about him being the best rookie. It's about whether he's among the best five right now, it's about how he fits into the organization, it's about how the decision impacts the team money-wise, it's about how the risk stacks up, it's about how much you can trust his stuff absent a real track record, etc., etc., etc.

 

You act like it's a super easy decision not to option him. For a million reasons it's not. And that's why people are bringing it up.

You're misunderstanding my point. I get why he would be behind all the veterans. I get the service time issue. I even understand your point about injury. But all those apply to Slegers, Gonsalves, Enns, Littell, and Jorge too. You, and people in other posts as well, singled out Romero specifically. That is the part I don't understand. 

You're misunderstanding my point. I get why he would be behind all the veterans. I get the service time issue. I even understand your point about injury. But all those apply to Slegers, Gonsalves, Enns, Littell, and Jorge too. You, and people in other posts as well, singled out Romero specifically. That is the part I don't understand. 

Oh. Well I singled him out because I think he's the best pitcher in the bunch. The only one who has a chance to be an ace.

Let's put him up for comparison against Gonsalves, who is a comparable pitcher in age, level, and prospect ranking, and who even has better results and less injury. I'm more worried about the service time risk for Romero because having him under team control for a longer time is priceless if he's an ace. Since Gonsalves is more likely a 3 or 4, the risk diminishes. You lose a year of a number 4 and you're not really out that much. And then you can continue on down the line to guys like Enns or Jorge who might ride the shuttle for a couple years and then maybe stick in the bullpen. 

It probably sounds like a heartless calculus, and to an extent it is, but Romero's ceiling is so much higher that I think singling him out for being a higher risk makes sense.

Oh. Well I singled him out because I think he's the best pitcher in the bunch. The only one who has a chance to be an ace.

 

Let's put him up for comparison against Gonsalves, who is a comparable pitcher in age, level, and prospect ranking, and who even has better results and less injury. I'm more worried about the service time risk for Romero because having him under team control for a longer time is priceless if he's an ace. Since Gonsalves is more likely a 3 or 4, the risk diminishes. You lose a year of a number 4 and you're not really out that much. And then you can continue on down the line to guys like Enns or Jorge who might ride the shuttle for a couple years and then maybe stick in the bullpen. 

 

It probably sounds like a heartless calculus, and to an extent it is, but Romero's ceiling is so much higher that I think singling him out for being a higher risk makes sense.

If you believe there is no real chance a rookie makes the rotation when the Twins head north that makes sense.

EDIT- Which, by the way, I agree that no rookie will break camp in the rotation.

If you believe there is no real chance a rookie makes the rotation when the Twins head north that makes sense.

 

EDIT- Which, by the way, I agree that no rookie will break camp in the rotation.

Well then I suppose I ought to say that I don't think a rookie will head north in April.

I guess I should also say that, because of service time games allowing an extra year of team control for a few weeks in the minors, Fernando Romero in particular absolutely should not head north in April.

If you believe there is no real chance a rookie makes the rotation when the Twins head north that makes sense.

 

EDIT- Which, by the way, I agree that no rookie will break camp in the rotation.

Slegers would be the only one with a small chance.

Absolute best case for Romero is that he opens enough eyes to be in line for a call up after you're guaranteed another year of service time.

Well then I suppose I ought to say that I don't think a rookie will head north in April.

 

I guess I should also say that, because of service time games allowing an extra year of team control for a few weeks in the minors, Fernando Romero in particular absolutely should not head north in April.

I'm a bit on the fence but I'm leaning towards disagreeing with your second point. Presumably any rookie would be up with the intention of being sent back down when Santana returns. That leads to four likely outcomes.

First, Romero is pitching poorly and when Santana returns and he is sent back to the minors. This extends his service time another year.

Second, Romero is pitching ok but is still sent down when Santana returns thus extending his control.

Third, Romero is pitching phenomenally and another pitcher leaves the rotation instead. He could still be sent down at a later point in time or even in a future season to regain that seventh year of control.

Fourth, Romero gets injured and accrues MLB service time. If it is a short term injury then the first three outcomes still apply. If it is a major injury then the likelihood of Romero being the impact pitcher we are all hoping for is greatly reduced making the concern over service time, not moot, but certainly lessened.

The only scenario where service time is lost is if he is pitching amazing in which case, I'm glad they brought him up anyways. The Twins are in contention and the time is now!

Since it is not my team and not my dollars I am ready to drop any of those who have less talent and block his way.  Can anyone tell me Mejia has a higher ceiling than Romero?

If you want to do a comparison in a vacuum, I doubt you will get many, if any, supporters of Mejia having a higher ceiling.  But, circumstances do exist, and they favor Mejia being higher in the pecking order at present. Said circumstance are going to weigh more heavily on a team in the Twins market, especially considering the historical MO of ownership.

Thanks for the update, Seth,

It is appreciated.  And you have a good day!

If that was your intent with the line "Zack Littell has had a very strong camp including a win and two saves among his outings", I'd suggest rephrasing it or adding this additional context. "Zack Littell has had a very strong camp, albeit against mostly minor league competition as evidenced by his late appearances in games."

Now, now... Let's not break out the Grammar Inquisitors just yet.

While we all know spring training saves and wins are pretty meaningless, they are still a notch above orange slices and participation trophy's, and I see no harm in throwing out some accolades.  I can remember when I had next to nothing to list on a resume; I've only recently been able to finally bump "Reserve Champion Showman in Beef at the Jerome County Fair" from my resume.

As far as the OPP/Quality stat, boy that is pretty reductive.  Drew Butera is a 9 or 10 on it, while Ronald Acuna is a 5 or 6.  I'm more interested in hearing what Molitor had to say about Littell, and I'm also intrigued by Romero's exclusion from this list.

 No Fernando Romero...yet.  All of this talk of who fills the back of the rotation.  I think there is a zero percent chance he comes north.  But I would ask, what is the percentage chance he makes his debut by, say.....June 1?  Kid has looked amazing in Ft. Myers.

Even though I commented preciously about the fact that Romero must have a slim chance to make the team seeing as he wasn't among the fist cuts, I'd have to guess that slim chance lies solely in the bullpen.

 

The team has little use for a 5th starter for the first month or so, it would make some sense to look at him as a swing man for the time being, this would also help the team manage his innings. The bullpen is looking much better this year, but there's still no iron lock for the role of long man.

I hope that isn't the route they take. He is our only likely option for a potential front of the rotation pitcher in the next several years. He already has had arm trouble. I'm not sure how much your plan increases the risk of arm injury but any increase is too much for my tastes, in this particular case.