Minnesota’s Farm System is Key to Sustainable Contention

We will not know how well the team does in terms of building a good system for a few more years.  The key is being able to keep reloading talent as they age and leave via FA or we trade them.  Look at Cleveland on how they keep producing pitchers over and over to trade away.  Now, they have failed to get good hitting over and over, and they have tried to using pitching depth in trades to load up hitting, but overall has not been all to great lately.  

Twins have seemed to find some diamonds in the rough lately for some good stints and that is also key to success.  Not every top pick will be a MLB player, but finding some late picks to make up for that is always key.  We also will not know for another year or two on how great the picks were.  So far Jeffers looks MLB level ready and Rooker has had hot start.  The rest will come next year or two. 

Although this article is about the farm system, Cody, you only talk about the draft and players acquired via trades.

Considering that four of their starting 9 position players are International Free Agents, that source if not most important is certainly as important as the draft. Where would this team be had their International scouts taken a vacation one July back in what was it, 2009, when they signed Sano, Polanco and Kepler? Although others were International players acquired in trades, I am guessing nearly half of this team were originally signed that way. 

In terms of position players and relievers the Twins farm system has been a great pipeline of talent. Unfortunately, there has been a distinct lack of starting pitchers being able to establish themselves at the major league level. The only guy since Berrios who has had moderate success has been Dobnak and he an undrafted free agent signed out of an independent league. Way too many former top 100 prospects have flamed out in the last 5 years including Meyer, Stewart, Gonsalves, Jay, and Romero. I'm hoping the next crop of Duran, Balazovic, Enlow, Canterino, Sands, and Chalmers has more success.

I can't say I'm surprised by Brent Rooker's success at the plate, given his consistent good AB's in the minors. What I'm hoping now is that he works his butt off to become at least average in a corner OF spot. 

Meanwhile, I'd love to see the team find some excuse to bring up Duran. Another horse? Let's find out, yea or neigh!

"2020 Midseason Farm System Rankings"? Good one, MLB. What with 0 minor league games played.

"A few aces up their sleeve."  This one put a smile on my face.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/

9 of the current top 30 twins prospects on MLB.com were acquired by the previous regime. When you consider how long it typically takes a player to develop in the minor leagues that they have been able to keep supplementing the big league roster with talent and develop another wave of talent to follow so quickly speaks well to the farm system development over the last few years. 

It's not just the development of players in the minors but also how they keep improving once they reach The Show that determines the quality of a MLB organization. Just look at Shane Bieber's growth this year and all of their other pitchers over there in Cleveland that we are starting to develop here in Minnesota now. The whole reason they brought Falvey over from Cleveland was because of how he helped them develop their pitchers. So far so good with Canterino, Balazovic, Enlow, Duran all looking very promising and all the other relief pitchers and starting pitchers that have/are coming up in the system.

When you factor in the explosive growth in the Twins' offense and pitching last year and now their defensive improvements this year when they were able to put in place the coaching staff they wanted as opposed to inherited it is mind boggling to me that people don't realize how lucky we are to have them leading the organization.

For some examples to remind everyone: Duffey and Littel became relief aces last year when our pitching coach (more like pitching whisperer) Wes Johnson advised them on things to work on when they went down to Rochester. This year Thielbar and Wisler have become two more set up quality pitchers that Falvine got off waivers and near retirement for Wes to work with. Maeda has gone from a very good pitcher to an actual capital A - Ace pitcher after they changed his pitch mix. Dobnak was an undrafted free agent that has a 60+ GB% and his slider has become a real weapon this year.

Cody has illustrated well with his examples how well Falvine have done with the early returns from their drafts and trades so far. I've never been more excited as a Twins fan regarding the direction of the organization. Cheers!

I think it will be really interesting to see if Falvey can repeat the Cleveland success with pitcher drafting and development. One somewhat strange occurrence that should be worth following is that in 2019 the Twins drafted and signed 16 college pitchers in rounds 6-25.

I see the development side as the FO strength. They have hired a number of talented people proven by how many were poached by other orgs. Only time will tell on the drafting side.

While the jury is still out to be sure, I've been very impressed by their drafts thus far, as well as the overall changes in development philosophy. They also seem more aggressive in promotions.
 

Totally agree. I like that they are promoting before players run out of options which seemed to happen more than I liked with the last administration.

Lots of really astute observations here.

My own theory is that, going forward, they are going to need to continue to be aggressive traders of redundant major league talent for the promising prospects from other systems. They no longer can claim any sort of substantial superiority when it comes to scouting and talent evaluation, although they may still have better relationships and connections in the DR and may still have a work culture that drives them to find a Dobnak and resurrect a Thielbar. Any advantage in the area of cutting edge development technology, innovation and expertise is likely somewhat short-lived or narrowed. And MLB success quickly allows others to catch up because of favorable draft order and larger bonus pools.

In my view, that leaves two primary ways to create separation. The best way, IMO, is to take advantage of other team's perceived immediate needs for MLB talent, where prospects offer a considerable future value discount compared to a current value for your expendable player. The second way is related, which is to keep enough dry powder ("financial flexibility") to take advantage of FA talent opportunities and cost squeezes.

I agree with others that, today, we're behind our ALC rivals when it comes to top notch pitching talent.

If I were the GM at the 2020 trade deadline, I would have solicited conversations about Rosario, May, Clippard, Romo, and Cave, and taken a prospect deal IF an overpay was available for any of them. I'd be an aggressive seller of MLB surplus 7/24/365.

In short, the three pillars should all be significantly above average and then exploited to further improve things: MLB talent, prospect talent, and available cash. I think the Twins are in pretty good shape in all regards, with the talent pipeline at the lower end of the preferred range for my liking.

You never know what you have until they are in the big leagues for a year or three.  Pipeline looks good at this time,  we will know more a few years from now.  Pitching if you are not the Yankees and just buy it, is the hardest commodity to find.  Twins now look good in that area, but will have to see. 

Remember Oderizzi is not likely to return and good chance Hill and Bailey will not either.  We are going to need the depth and hopefully we are like Cleveland and just keep churning them out.  

For the next few years we will be drafting in the last 1/3 or last 1/4.  That makes it difficult to find top of the rotation pitching.  Here is hoping the FA can trade some assets this winter for high upside pitching, and more of the Twins draft picks come through.  It can be done, just asking a lot.

For the most part I agree with you.  As we have literally witnessed starting pitchers no matter what round can be dangerous picks because you never know what injuries might happen to the arm or if they will develop into a viable major league pitcher,but here is the rub.  Generally if you want to find an arm with "special" qualities you are going to find them in the first round.  Lets take a trip through the division and I think you will see what I am talking about.

 

Lets start with the White Sox.  While we have to go back in time a little and they did not personally pick all the pitchers they have they did trade a pitcher they got in the 1st round (Sale)  for another pitcher taken in the first round Giolotto and I would say that has worked out pretty well for them.  They also got another 1st round pitcher from Washington in Dunning and although it is small sample size he is off to good start.  They also have the hard throwing and almost unhittable although also wild Michael Kopech waiting in the wings and he was a supplemental 1st round pick.  Just this year they took Garret Crochet a lefty who can wing it up to 100 mph with the 11th pick in the draft so yet another 1st round arm.  These are the type of arms that can make a difference, that can separate from a more average starter.  Its not like Chicago spent all their draft capital on pitching as they arguably have the best lineup in the division as well and to top it all off they are a very young team with some of their best tied up for the next 6 years.  Yes they took chances and they haven't won anything yet but they have the look of team that could win a world series and those 1st round arms look to play a big part in that.

 

Kansas City I believe tripled down on 1st round pitchers in 2020 and got Asa Lacy, and Brady Singer in the first round and they are in top 50 prospects in MLB and I believe Singer almost threw a no hitter yesterday.  They also have Daniel lynch in the top 100 as yet another first round arm and that doesn't even include Jackson Kowar who didn't make the top 100 this year but certainly could in the near future.  All high quality arms likely to impact their team soon.  The pitching poor Royals look like they will be in good shape very soon all with those solid 1st round pitcher picks.

 

Detroit did the same thing taking Casey Mize and Matt Manning at the top of the draft is successive years.  Guys with Ace like stuff and Multiple highly rated pitches.  Mize has struggled in his debut but the high end talent is there and he seems likely to harness it in time.

 

So you can see that grabbing 1st round pitching can be important to finding guys that have potential to be better than average pitchers and often times that is where dominant pitching comes from.  You can still do what the Twins do and grab a bunch a pitchers later but why not take a chance now and then on top shelf talent in the 1st round especially when you have so, so many Left field\1st baseman type hitters?  Believe it or not there is a point where that strategy no longer makes sense.  Right now and into the future they are locked and loaded for outfield, 1st base and DH.  They could possibly use middle infield help and oh yeah they lack young high quality starting pitching.  

 

I like the potential of Balazovic and Duran but lets be honest they are not even close to stretched out yet so unlikely to help much even next year.  The Guys behind them have potential but nothing like the 1st rounders I just mentioned for the other teams.  So while we might be developing good pitching our competition might be developing great pitching and that might be the difference in where we end up the next 5 to 6 years,  

 

Now I know I left out Cleveland and I know Falvey is from that school of thought and maybe there is a trend in the making there but to this point most teams either get their pitching in free agency, trades or high draft picks.  Yep lots of lower drafted guys make it too but that doesn't mean a team needs to skip trying to draft pitching in the first round.  Especially a team that appears to have quite a few hitters in the pipeline as it is.  I know the FO loves the pitching they have in the pipeline but I am skeptical it will be make enough of a difference versus the talent our competitors have.  I hope I am wrong but I think based on what I have written above a case can be made that I am right as well.

Brady Singer was drafted this year? Didn't realize that. Was really impressed when he threw against the Twins and then the near no-no last night. Wow!

I was royally pi$$ed in 2018 when we basically tanked the second half by trading Escobar, Pressly and Dozier. I won't apologize for that but my opinions about the FO have proven to be wrong. After a series of well thought out moves I give them high marks overall. I am glad they came here and i see the results of their knowledge and experience. I know this thread isnt totally about the FO but the direction we are heading under their leadership is encouraging to see. Alcala, Jeffers, Rooker, Duran etc are all exciting young prospects. It will be interesting to see in the off-season if we can upgrade our starting pitching with some of these assets.

Here's what it all comes down to: player evaluation and player development. We need to know which players to draft, which players to trade away, which players to trade for, and which players to sign as free agents. And we need to know how to get the most out of the players in our organization.If we do all this well we can be consistently strong and consistently affordable.

The Twins farm system has been steady but not spectacular in recent years.  The pitchers coming up largely end up being relievers.  The big studs end up showing potential and getting injured quite a bit.  The Twins need to develop a couple of stud SP.  The system is also weak at 3B and, to a lesser extent at 2B.  I'm not so worried about 2B because I think Arraez will be around awhile but there is nobody to replace Donaldson if he gets injured or when he leaves.  I'm wondering if Lewis will move to 3B, although I was hoping the Lewis would improve the defense at SS over Polanco.