Why Another Twins Trade Deadline Selloff Doesn’t Make Sense

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No. Not enough.

Trade Calculator. 
Ryan 46. For Tolle 62

Twins +16. 
 

See i am ok with an overpay and for me this is enough of an overpay. It’s why I wanted to see people opinion and how realistic they are. Red Sox likely do not do this trade.  

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fair. I got him and another pitcher confused. 

Like I said I don’t trade anyone and take my chances and see we can get to the playoffs, a chip and a chair philosophy.  If Jeffers does well down the stretch a comp pick is all but guaranteed and worth more than anything we can get in a trade. If Ryan can be strong down the stretch and get a playoff win and maybe top 3 cy young he is still worth around 40-46.  Math and Milwaukee philosophy says 1 year left is the time to trade.  

If the current roster on the field isn't a serious contender, holding onto players just to finish third in one of baseballs weakest division is pointless.

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Only in retrospect were the 1987 Twins so good. The 1986 Twins finished 71-91. Only the Texas Rangers and Florida Marlins faced longer odds than the '87 Twins. Virtually nobody picked them. Was it different? Yes, 1987 was in the 20th Century. The government had NASA and now in the 21st century NASA has been largely privatized to become SpaceX (making a blatantly/openly illegal immigrant quite wealthy), which is the new normal. Yes, things are different. You know that and so do we all. Change happens. Let's just try to enjoy the rest of the current season. It's all good.

Not exactly true because their core players were very good and everyone knew it.   They lacked a closer.  They lacked a bullpen, and their starters did not have good seasons in 1986, including Viola.

The fact that nobody picked them doesn't make them a bad team that was well tailored for the post season that only required them to win one series to get to the World Series.   They also gained an advantage because in the playoffs series they were given home field advantage by rotation which really helped them, especially in the World Series facing a NL team that had never played there before.

Again, here is the deal.  If the Twins ownership is willing to add significantly to their payroll budget, for example signing Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan to market value free agent contracts AND add other higher cost free agents, not the bargain basement players they usually add to fill out the roster, then they should stand pat at the trade deadline and perhaps add an arm or two if they can make a cheap deal.

But if that is NOT the case, dump everyone who is going to be lost at the top of their value right now, gain prospects to use in the rebuild.

If rooting to make the 3rd wild card and getting swept in the playoffs is your kind of team, I guess the Twins and their spendthrift ownership are for you.  

2 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Is this from baseball trade values? If you look at that site, they say that while Tolle has extra surplus value, this Is not a trade that would ever happen in real life because of the realities of trading an established Frontline starter for a guy who essentially still a prospect. Boston would have to add pieces, potentially top 100 prospect pieces to make this an even trade in their view. I’m curious because everything I read says that Boston would have to add significant pieces to Tolle to get Ryan. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place. What is your source?

Those are the values in the trade calculator and I’ve never seen any qualifiers, the values are to get you in the ballpark. 

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Only in retrospect were the 1987 Twins so good. The 1986 Twins finished 71-91. Only the Texas Rangers and Florida Marlins faced longer odds than the '87 Twins. Virtually nobody picked them. Was it different? Yes, 1987 was in the 20th Century. The government had NASA and now in the 21st century NASA has been largely privatized to become SpaceX (making a blatantly/openly illegal immigrant quite wealthy), which is the new normal. Yes, things are different. You know that and so do we all. Change happens. Let's just try to enjoy the rest of the current season. It's all good.

I'm not telling you something you don't already know, but we're talking about a playoff field of 4 vs 12 teams. 

You can still enjoy the remainder of the season after shrewd moves are made right? The "anything can happen," mentality is what has kept this team locked into mediocrity or worse for the last few years. 

This buy or sell argument all boils down to the next 2 weeks. If they keep winning series, they need to buy. If not, then sell and build up for next season. They should not sell if they are in contention, even though the ALC and AL are watered down this year. The whole point of playing the games is to get to the postseason! 

6 hours ago, TL said:

Send Martin down or out. Jenkins in left and Roden/Keaschall platoon.  

What has Roden done that would give him AB's over Keaschall.

Don't trade Bell just for the sake of him being a FA DH.  He's producing!  He's also a reason we're winning.  Same with Larnach.  Makes no sense if we're winning and close.  Larnach is under $6M, pocket change in today's MLB.  Take the chance.  Don't break up the core.

11 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Another thought; when Buxton comes back, it's very much a numbers game. Even if they trade Larnach (for example) the outfield then is Roden/Martin, Buxton and Keaschall right now. That's perfectly fine, right? But IF Jenkins comes up (which I do think happens at some point) then you do have to think about the idea of moving Bell to ensure that the outfield mix can all take turns dh'ing right? Not that they have to move Bell, but I could see the idea of it depending on the return.

Anyway, lots of moving parts too, so trading some guys with the intention of making room for players that are ready also makes sense.

 

It DOES make sense. Larnach finally has some trade value, so I think the Twins need to trade him this season. Not only do we have Jenkins waiting in the wings, but also Rodriguez and Mendez. Too many cooks in the kitchen. 

45 minutes ago, TL said:

That’s a fair point and I’d be more than happy to not have a straight platoon and instead Keaschall gets like 70% of the starts. Roden acts more like a 4th outfielder that is playing against tougher righties and when we want to get another OFer a day off, which would likely mean he is starting over half the time anyway.

But like others have said, his minor league track record shows he *should* be able to hit in the majors.

I think they are in a tough spot with Roden.  He has done nothing in his short time in the majors with both the Twins and Toronto.  But he has had 170 AB's which is the same Martin has had over May and June.  And many have said that Martin is not an every day player based on this, so is Roden who actually has not hit as well as Martin worth more of a look.  Right now the only outfielder I would force into the lineup is Jenkins.  I don't think Roden has earned it, and like you said he might be more of a fourth outfielder at best.

The Twins do have an interesting situation with their outfielders.  They have five outfielders in St. Paul that will probably be ready to play up here between now and early 2028 at the latest.  And that doesn't include Wallner and Fedko.  And if you add Keaschall and Roden to this mix, there are 7 players competing for basically two spots.  Buxton is not going anywhere and Larnach and Martin are still here.

So if you add in the DH spot as a place to rotate players thru, you have three spots.  Yes they may not want to give up on this year but they are going to have to make some decisions, either now or this offseason.  First not everyone of those guys will live up to expectations and may bomb completely.  But how are they going to clear space by either moving players currently on the big league roster, i.e. Larnach and Bell.  Or who do they trade of that group to strengthen other areas of the roster.  And can they self scout well enough to move the right players, which has been a weakness of this organization.

Even when everyone is healthy, they don't have enough AB's to go around at St. Paul and players will stagnate.  And right now I don't think playing Mendez or Gonzalez at 1B is an option other than as backups.  I am not moving off of Lewis unless he falls back the second half of the season.

8 hours ago, Sjoski said:

If the current roster on the field isn't a serious contender, holding onto players just to finish third in one of baseballs weakest division is pointless.

I tend to agree and you make a valid point. Atlanta won with 2. Good starters, 3 bullpen arms and a rebuilt outfield. It shouldn’t have worked but it did. You are also not acknowledging that the twins could get as much or more for Jeffers by holding him through the season if things break right.

Ryan I would think trading now or in the offseason is fairly close in similar value.

16 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I must disagree. Winners do not trade their best players at the trade deadline. Losers and mediocre teams do that.  Oh, you may say that "the Twins are already a loser this season, so why not trade for the future.?" My answer to that is it ain't over til the fat lady sings. 

Winning organizations trade their best players at the deadline and in the off-season when they are not good in that given year.  What did St. Louis do this last off-season.  The brewers have 13 players on pace to have more than 1.5 WAR.  Seven were drafted and six were acquired as prospects. 

We are neither good nor bad so what do you do?  Let's just keep in mind that we would not even have Ryan or Duran had they followed your doctrine.  Let's keep in mind that Jeffers would make us a little better in a year when we are mediocre.  He could return a player that contributes for 6-7 years.