Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 1.0

It was a fun exercise putting together this first draft, even if there aren’t as many changes as we would think. But it is a starting point. As you read this, consider where the Twins should focus their attention the rest of the season.

For this, I am going to go with a 13-hitter, 12-pitcher roster as most teams like to begin the season that way.

Catchers (2): Jason Castro, John Ryan Murphy

Kurt Suzuki’s been the primary Twins catcher the last three years, but that will not be the case in 2017. The Twins new front office regime quickly targeted pitch-framing sensation Jason Castro and signed him to a three-year, $24.5 million contract. He may not hit, but the goal is for him to assist heavily in the improvement of the Twins pitching staff.

John Ryan Murphy will be out of options which obviously gives him the advantage over Mitch Garver, who was just added to the Twins 40-man roster last month. Murphy is younger, but Garver is likely the better player. My reports tell me he was much better than Murphy offensively and defensively in 2016, so it’s likely he’ll see some time with the big league club in 2017.

Infielders (6): Byungho Park, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar

It’s pretty clear that it is very likely that this alignment will change significantly before spring training. Dozier remains quite likely be be traded, and if that happens Jorge Polanco likely moves to second base and a decision will need to be made at shortstop (Escobar or someone from outside).

Joe Mauer will be the primary first baseman. Dozier will be the Twins second baseman until he’s not in the organization. Sano is going to get the opportunity to be the regular third baseman now that Trevor Plouffe is not in the organization. Polanco is out of options and will be playing somewhere because of his bat. Eduardo Escobar was offered arbitration, a wise decision with so many question marks around the infield and his ability to be an option at three of the positions.

I believe that it is an either/or situation at DH between Kennys Vargas and Byungho Park. How much of Park’s rookie struggles were related to adjusting to a new league and how much of it was related to his hand and wrist injuries? He does have two option years remaining. The Twins petitioned for an extra option year for Vargas and it was granted, so he also can be sent to Rochester if deemed appropriate. Adam Brett Walker was DFAd and has since been claimed twice. Daniel Palka is now on the 40-man roster so he could potentially be brought up if a DH is needed. Also, Robbie Grossman’s best defensive position is DH.

Outfielders (5): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman, Danny Santana

Byron Buxton did so much in September to hand him the center field job. His defense made it likely even if he hadn’t hit. Max Kepler had a solid rookie season in right field, showing power and defense. Eddie Rosario struggled as a sophomore, enough to be sent to Rochester. He came back and was better, but a platoon option might be good. Robbie Grossman isn’t a good defender, at all, but he can mash left-handed pitchers, which gives him some value.

And yes, Danny Santana is still - maybe inexplicably - on the 40-man roster, and he is out of options, so an MLB roster spot still is in his future. Obviously he’s a great athlete. He’s got very good speed and the tools that keep him intriguing. We’d all love to see him put up numbers anywhere near his 2013 rookie campaign, but playing time should be limited.

Palka is an option in right field and DH. Zack Granite was also added to the 40-man roster and could be an option in center field if there is injury and he needs to be up for an extended period. Ben Paulsen is a capable replacement level player who will be in AAA unless needed.

Starting Pitchers (5): Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Hector Santiago, Trevor May

Pitching appears to be Derek Falvey’s calling card, and the Twins currently have a long list of pitchers who could start the season in the team’s rotation. There are even more that have a decent shot of getting called up in 2017.

Ervin Santana is easily the team’s top starter. He just turned 34 and has two seasons (and an option year) remaining on his contract. While he’s not an “Ace,” he has been a quality MLB starter for more than a decade. Somewhat surprising, his name has not been mentioned in off-season trade rumors. That could obviously change at any time and there are teams where it makes complete sense for him. But as long as he’s on the roster, he’s at the top of the rotation.

The Twins offered arbitration to both Hector Santiago and Kyle Gibson. They’ll be around unless traded. Gibson was the team’s pitcher of the year in 2015, but an early season injury cost him six months. With health, he should take a good stride forward again in 2017. Santiago has been a solid starter the last few years. He was even an All-Star a couple years ago. He was not good for his first month with the Twins, but he can be a solid starter. In reality, both could be July trade chips if they pitch well.

Trevor May might get a shot to start again, and for right now, I’ll include him here. I think the odds of May starting are not high, but hopefully he gets a real chance. Tyler Duffey should head to spring training with a shot at a rotation spot again. I’m going to go with May here, but Duffey has about the same likelihood. Others will get a shot too, including Jose Berrios and Adelberto Mejia. Berrios is an Opening Day option, but it’s 100% based on his command starting in spring training. Could any of the AA group get to the big leagues in 2017? It’s possible we see Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jay or even Fernando Romero late in the season.

Bullpen (7): Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly, JT Chargois, Taylor Rogers, Ryan O’Rourke, Tyler Duffey, Justin Haley.

This is another group that could change quickly. I mean, as of today, Brandon Kintzler would likely still be the team’s closer. He had 17 saves last year and did well, but we all know he isn’t the prototype for an MLB closer. It’s also possible that the righty is traded. Ryan Pressly, like Kintzler, was just offered arbitration. He could fit in to the closer role as well, but he’ll certainly be used in late innings again. JT Chargois, like Byron Buxton, seemed to relax and play much, much better in September than previously. He has a chance to be a closer, but I don’t think they would throw him right into the role.

Taylor Rogers had a quality rookie season. He had a few flare-ups, but for the most part, he got the job done as well. I think that, as of today, the second lefty reliever role would be a strong competition between Ryan O’Rourke and Buddy Boshers. Depending upon additional Twins free agent signings, they could remain in that role, or they could be DFA candidates. Mason Melotakis is likely to get a shot sometime in 2017 as well. In his return from Tommy John, the Twins handled him carefully in 2016, and they will likely do so for the first half of 2017, but he’ll be up at some point. Also, Glen Perkins is going to be back in 2017. He had shoulder surgery midseason, but the thought is that he could be back and throwing in spring training. I suspect he will start the season on the disabled list, getting a few appearances in rehab games before coming up.

I show Tyler Duffey pitching in long relief. With his inability to add a decent third pitch, he is more suited for the bullpen and could team with former Rice teammate JT Chargois in later innings too.

If the Twins start the season with a 12-man pitching staff, we have one more spot for the opening of the season. Michael Tonkin could fill that role again. He made the team and stayed on it in large part due to the fact that he was out of options and had to stay with the team. He obviously remains out of options. I’m including Justin Haley as the final bullpen spot. After some of the annual Rule 5 maneuvering, the Twins ended up with the big right-hander who spent the first four seasons of his professional career with the Red Sox. As a Rule 5 pick, he would need to remain with the big league club all season or risk losing him back to the Red Sox (unless the teams work out a trade, which is possible too).

At some point during the season, we will likely see more of the hard-throwing relievers drafted by the Twins since 2012. Melotakis is one of them. The others include the likes of Jake Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, Nick Burdi and John Curtiss.

So there is Roster 2017 version 1.0. Share your thoughts, your areas where you believe that Falvey/Levine should focus.

Aside from adding Jason Castro and letting Trevor Plouffe become a free agent, there have not been a lot of moves so far. Obviously it is still very, very early in the off-season yet. The next four weeks will be very busy for the Twins and all other teams.

Before spring training, we’ll obviously have resolution on the Brian Dozier situation, one way or the other. That will obviously affect the Twins at both second base and shortstop, but depending on the return, it could also affect two of three other roster spots either now or in the next year or so. Pitching hasn’t really been addressed in any meaningful way yet, even in terms of minor league signings. There are still a lot of relievers available.

I also don’t think the overall lack of moves is a bad thing at all.The Terry Ryan tenure ushered in a lot of very good, high-profile, high-ceiling types of prospects. Some of them have debuted in the last year or so. Others will arrive in 2017. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have come in and made just a handful of changes to the front office. Likewise, they may choose to make just a handful of moves to the roster that will help complement the young, potential stars who are taking their lumps in the big leagues but could become very good.

Signing some veterans to minor league or low-dollar deals does two things. First, if they’re any good, they can be traded in July as the Twins did with Fernando Abad a year ago.They could also pitch as well as Brandon Kintzler did, allowing the Twins do make a decision on whether to keep them around or deal them in the off-season. Third, if they’re not pitching great, their low-dollar contracts are easy to DFA, making room for talented prospects when they are deemed ready.

What are your thoughts? What does your roster look like?