Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

If our rotation is a 10 - 15 ranked and our relievers are in the same 10 - 15. We will have an above average pitching staff. With our current offense a potential top 5, and defense and base running and stuff also top 5 give or take. Thats good enough to win a lot of ballgames and go deep into October....If only we ponied up a 6 th year for Darvish so i wouldnt have to hear how important it is to have a number 1 starter vs 5 number 3s.

Yeah, and we have to see some of the future this season, as three of the arms could be gone fer sure in 2019 - Santana, Lynn and Gibson. Of course, it would be a good chance for May to come into the game as long relief, building back strength as a starter. And I do have high hopes for Romero and Gonsalves doing good, with Jorge and Littrell as the dark horses. Can't wait for the season to start and to see how everything starts to mesh together.

On paper, this is the best Twins pitching staff in quite a while. Everybody in the rotation has been a good pitcher, at least sometimes. Other than Hughes, there isn't anybody I can point to and bet that guy will struggle. 

Things could really get interesting around halfway through the season, when May, Mejia, Gonsalves and Romero all could be ready to contribute. 

Remember they're stretching out Duffey, too, so he's also on the list of potential AAA reinforcements. 

I have this feeling that Lance Lynn is going to be a pleasant surprise, for some.  Will go so far as make two predictions.  One, he will have a better season than that Darvish guy; and two, he will like it here and they will shock everyone this July when the Twins extend him with a contract similar to what he was looking for this past winter.  

I have always wanted to be a big fan of Gibson.  But days like yesterday sure make it hard, don't they?  Hopefully, he will be the pitcher he was the last couple months of last year.  If not, your analysis is right on as they will have several options to go before the calendar turns to summer.

Will this be the year that Berrios becomes a true ACE?  I think so!

I like the moves the new FO has been making so far. 

If BR's 2018 projectionscome true, this would be a great step for Berrios.  Although, the ERA is pretty high.  

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berrijo01.shtml#pitching_proj::none

I'm just not sure if Berrios will ever be a #1-type pitcher.  Give me a solid #2 behind Erv and I'd be happy.

I have this feeling that Lance Lynn is going to be a pleasant surprise, for some.  Will go so far as make two predictions.  One, he will have a better season than that Darvish guy; and two, he will like it here and they will shock everyone this July when the Twins extend him with a contract similar to what he was looking for this past winter.  

 

I have always wanted to be a big fan of Gibson.  But days like yesterday sure make it hard, don't they?  Hopefully, he will be the pitcher he was the last couple months of last year.  If not, your analysis is right on as they will have several options to go before the calendar turns to summer.

 

Will this be the year that Berrios becomes a true ACE?  I think so!

This has always been the issue with Gibson, inconsistent and a notorious slow starter.  He has done it year after year.  If he does it again this year, i wouldn't keep him beyond this season.

Pineda is late season depth too

It certainly looks like a rotation built less on hopes and prayers and more on talent and track record.

Kyle "the Tease" Gibson still makes me nervous, but I like him a lot better as a 4th or 5th starter who has to pitch to keep his job than someone who gets handed the 3rd slot because the options they are awful.

Ervin Santana isn't an "ace", but he can lead a staff. I think people tend to conflate the idea of #1 starter vs "ace" a little bit. If a guy is in the top 20 in pitching WAR among starters...isn't that a #1? If they do it a couple of years in a row, the only reason to call them a #2 is because they're not considered an "ace", the dominant starter who automatically gets looked at for the Cy. Twins will miss him the first month, but hopefully the extra time off the mound means he stays good through the whole year.

Berrios has the pitches to dominate and should be a fine #2. I expect him to take another step forward this year.

Lynn is a guy who has consistently put up results that would make him a fine #2 on most staffs as well; His last 3 healthy seasons have resulted in a bWAR over 3. That's the sort of performance that makes you one of the top 40 starters in baseball...sounds like a #2, doesn't it? I'm a little nervous about the transition to the AL; some guys don't handle it well. And there's no doubt he was lucky last year, but getting another year past the surgery should compensate for the luck returning to normal.

Odorizzi certainly has put up good enough results in the past to be a fine #2/3 for most MLB teams; last season was his first bad one since becoming a full-time starter in the bigs and reportedly he had some nagging injury issues that limited his effectiveness. He may be the poster child for "shut it down and get healthy" rather than "battle through it", but time will tell. He finished well and if he pitches like he did in 2015 or 2016, we're going to be thrilled. That's a much better track record to ride with as your #3 guy than we've been looking at.

I don't trust Gibson, but as the #4? I'm much happier than when we were hoping he'd be the #2 or #3 starter! prove me wrong, Tease. Give me the consistency we're dying for.

Remember they're stretching out Duffey, too, so he's also on the list of potential AAA reinforcements. 

Yes, but we're trying to be positive.

I can understand the desire to be positive and optimistic, but I am just totally unimpressed with this off-season. The Twins needed an ace, not 12 number 3s. It feels like the ghost of Terry Ryan. Darvish went CHEAP and Darvish is what the Twins needed.

 

Every season, the Twins spend about $35-40M on additional salary for rotation arms. This has been the case since, I think, 2013. Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Ricky Nolasco/Hector Santiago, Ervin Santana and now Lance Lynn. Odorizzi was a big jump in payroll as well. It doesn't matter to me if the Twins have new dumpster fires eating the $35M in salary up every two years. It matters to me the Twins could have spent the money more efficiently.

 

In any case, this year's probable rotation had a simple mean 4.87 FIP (4.68 when Hughes is replaced by Santana) which would keep them at an identical rank of 23rd of 30 teams (or 22nd of 30 teams) based on last year.

Berrios = 3.84

Lynn = 4.82

Odorizzi = 5.43

Gibson = 4.85
Hughes = 5.43

Santana = 4.46 FIP

 

There's always the chance multiple arms take a step forward and Santana comes back without regression to his mediocre to poor FIPs, but I've long since learned if, if, if, and if happens isn't a great scenario for trying to predict your teams playoff or World Series potential.

The Darvish contract is one of the 10 worst in baseball. Let's see what Theo does with an anchor around his neck.

What do you base that on, exactly? Because it's not close to one of hte ten worst this year, or next....

I'm expressing my opinion, if that's okay. Two years if he's great, four more years if he sucks. Six years for 126-150M. It will easily be one of the 10 worst.

Those fangraph IP projections seem awfully low. Other than maybe Erv’s.

Hard to say. Not many pitchers pitch a lot of innings anymore....for many reasons. To me, this points out how RPs are becoming more important, as much as anything else.

Sub 150 for Odirizzi and Lynn? That’s a 30 plus day stint on the DL. Sure, it can happen. But to project it seems overly pessimistic. They are projecting them with fewer IP than Erv, who we know will be out until at least May. And projecting less than 170 from Berrios. Sure, it’s 20 more than what he had at the MLB level last year, but it is 15 less than he had overall. And Berrios has no substantial injury history.

fangraphs had the overall starting staff at 941 That’s about 5 2/3 per start. Probably about right. 56 from Hughes - as a starter - seems very high. Given that he is already heading to the DL, he’ll be lucky to get 20 as a starter.

Is that official Hughes is going to the DL?

I thought I saw something here (like a Bernadino tweet or something) that said he was. Strained oblique.