Which Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Should Be Twins' Top Trade Target?

chpettit19 · July 9, 2024

42 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

No to any of them... If you're going after a starter it needs to be one that improves the rotation, he may cost some really good propects, but with the Cubs stinking it up I would look at Justin Steele, a much needed lefty that comes with a small salary. Not sure if he is under team control in 25, but would be a nice addition.

Steele is a fascinating option. He's under control for 3 more years, but is in arbitration and will get relatively expensive pretty quick if he keeps performing. Was a Super 2 so has 4 years of arbitration and signed for 4 mil this year in year 1. Depending on what their projections for his arb salaries is, he'd be a really nice pickup at the deadline. I doubt the Cubs are looking to move him, though. I think they're trying to win in the next 3 years and trading him would hurt those chances.

bean5302 · July 9, 2024

5 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

If Pablo gets right, and I still think he will before October, the Twins can compete with anyone in the American League, including the Yankees. It's absolutely time to get that monkey off the franchise's back.

Pablo has never been "right" by the definition fans and the writers on this site talk about. 2021 is the only time he flashed ace caliber results in his career. He's a back end #2 guy if he's "right" which he's been far away from this year.

Cory Engelhardt · July 9, 2024

12 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

They have the makings of a starting rotation through 2027 consisting of Pablo, Ryan, Ober, and SWR. The fifth spot can be Festa, Raya or a bridge vet like Paddack. I understand wanting to have depth in AAA but Varland's not in. Move him to the pen sooner rather than later.

Zebby and a lot of the other guys from the 2021 and 2022 drafts are knocking on the door very quickly too here.

Twins_Fan_in_NJ · July 9, 2024

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Pablo has never been "right" by the definition fans and the writers on this site talk about. 2021 is the only time he flashed ace caliber results in his career. He's a back end #2 guy if he's "right" which he's been far away from this year.

Not sure about that. He was a legit ace in last year's post-season.

chpettit19 · July 9, 2024

25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not interested in back end rotation arms. Only playoff caliber arms, and specifically, pitchers would would be the best starter on the team. Bassitt maybe qualifies, but that's awfully dicey. Joe Ryan is defying all odds in performing like a legit, front end #2 this year, but he's not an ace. I mean, good on him, but I don't trust him given his 2nd half swoon every year so far.

For people talking about Bassitt being a #4
2020-2024
Bassitt - 3.31 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP
Lopez - 3.82 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP
Berrios - 4.03 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.21 WHIP

Bassitt is basically as good as Pablo Lopez, though I don't like his bump in BB rate this year. Back end #2 type of pitcher. He's playoff caliber. Berrios is a #3 at this point, and there's reason to suspect he's got some luck on his side with a .252 BABIP this year which, in concert with him being victimized by the deep ball (16.0% HR/FB) is leading to a ghastly 5.07 FIP.

The article says Falvey has never paid $20MM for a pitcher. Well, Lopez is making $22MM starting next year, and it seems like a lot of fans have a genuine obsession with making sure every comment, every article, every blog post making sure they take a dig at ownership as being cheap. The Twins' payroll has been $150MM+ the past two years, they're at $131MM right now. They got their TV deal in place, and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets for a high probability of another playoff run. They made money last year thanks to advancing in the playoffs. Given the same scenario this year, I expect them to invest. Btw, a $40MM pitcher doesn't cost $40MM at the trade deadline because there's only 1/3 of the season left.
$40MM = $13MM
$30MM = $10MM
$20MM = $7MM
$10MM = $3MM
None of that is likely out of payroll reach for the Twins.

"But I can’t point to a specific change in strategy. I think it’s more likely than not that the reality is that any impact from our TV deal, relative to our short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited. But that’ll ultimately be up to the market, and up to opportunities that Derek feels are good for the Twins."

-Dave St Peter

I'd say that's at least a little bit of a reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets. Adding another 10% to the payroll by taking on another 13 million sounds like a very unlikely thing to happen. Same with 10 mil. Maybe they do 3-5 million?

When the owner says they're "right-sizing" their business it's probably safe to bet that they aren't hitting the same numbers they had in the previous seasons. 150 million wasn't the "right size" for their payroll so expecting them to go back to that number would be believing that Joe Pohlad was lying and pissing off his fan base for no reason. I think the safer bet is that they don't have a lot of wiggle room to add significant costs in the next 3 weeks.

bean5302 · July 9, 2024

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"But I can’t point to a specific change in strategy. I think it’s more likely than not that the reality is that any impact from our TV deal, relative to our short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited. But that’ll ultimately be up to the market, and up to opportunities that Derek feels are good for the Twins."

-Dave St Peter

I'd say that's at least a little bit of a reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets. Adding another 10% to the payroll by taking on another 13 million sounds like a very unlikely thing to happen. Same with 10 mil. Maybe they do 3-5 million?

When the owner says they're "right-sizing" their business it's probably safe to bet that they aren't hitting the same numbers they had in the previous seasons. 150 million wasn't the "right size" for their payroll so expecting them to go back to that number would be believing that Joe Pohlad was lying and pissing off his fan base for no reason. I think the safer bet is that they don't have a lot of wiggle room to add significant costs in the next 3 weeks.

The only thing you read in that entire quote was "short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited"

LA Vikes Fan · July 9, 2024

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I expect pitch-for-a-while then injured-for-a-while is how Stewart spends the rest of his MLB career. I'd be shocked if he played an entire season without going on the IL.

Hey, Stewart is great for those 30 innings a year that he can actually pitch without injury. He's pitched 13 so far. I say let's save those last 15-20 bullets for appearances in August, September and October. I'm fine with him not coming back until August 1 or even August 15. I think if he comes back on July 15 he won't last out the season.

chpettit19 · July 9, 2024

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The only thing you read in that entire quote was "short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited"

And then I added even more context from the literal owner of the team. But you go ahead and keep believing they're going to add 10% to their payroll at the deadline after the owner of the team and the president of the team and the president of baseball operations all told their fans they're cutting payroll. I'm sure they were just lying to us all and 150 was really the number they were willing to go to.

Falvey in November openly stated they were cutting payroll.

Dave St Peter in February openly states they aren't adding to payroll.

About a week later Joe Pohlad openly states they aren't adding to payroll.

But you think they'll add 10% to it without thinking twice. Bold prediction.

LA Vikes Fan · July 9, 2024

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"But I can’t point to a specific change in strategy. I think it’s more likely than not that the reality is that any impact from our TV deal, relative to our short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited. But that’ll ultimately be up to the market, and up to opportunities that Derek feels are good for the Twins."

-Dave St Peter

I'd say that's at least a little bit of a reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets. Adding another 10% to the payroll by taking on another 13 million sounds like a very unlikely thing to happen. Same with 10 mil. Maybe they do 3-5 million?

When the owner says they're "right-sizing" their business it's probably safe to bet that they aren't hitting the same numbers they had in the previous seasons. 150 million wasn't the "right size" for their payroll so expecting them to go back to that number would be believing that Joe Pohlad was lying and pissing off his fan base for no reason. I think the safer bet is that they don't have a lot of wiggle room to add significant costs in the next 3 weeks.

You may be right about that and that would leave out an SP addition. That doesn't prevent us from going the other pitching route of trying for a lock down back end by getting another high octane back end reliever for the rest of the year at 2-4m remaining on a contract like Carlos Estevez (6.750m contract, roughly 3m remaining on 7/31), Tanner Scott (5,7m contract, roughly 2.35m remaining), or Kirby Yates if Texas trades him (4.5m contract, roughly 1.8m remaining), or even a lesser light like AJ Puk (1.8m contract, about 800k remaining) or Lucas Erceg (750k contract, 350k remaining). The big question is the cost. I would be willing to trade a top 30, but not top 15 prospect plus an A ball guy for any of the top 3, maybe a 20-30 prospect for Erceg or Puk.

Twins_Fan_in_NJ · July 9, 2024

I haven't the slightest idea but I wonder what their books would look like if they have the revenue from an extended playoff run, i.e., World Series appearance or 6-7 games into the ALCS, but also increase their payroll by 10% from August through the end of the season.

chpettit19 · July 9, 2024

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

You may be right about that and that would leave out an SP addition. That doesn't prevent us from going the other pitching route of trying for a lock down back end by getting another high octane back end reliever for the rest of the year at 2-4m remaining on a contract like Carlos Estevez (6.750m contract, roughly 3m remaining on 7/31), Tanner Scott (5,7m contract, roughly 2.35m remaining), or Kirby Yates if Texas trades him (4.5m contract, roughly 1.8m remaining), or even a lesser light like AJ Puk (1.8m contract, about 800k remaining) or Lucas Erceg (750k contract, 350k remaining). The big question is the cost. I would be willing to trade a top 30, but not top 15 prospect plus an A ball guy for any of the top 3, maybe a 20-30 prospect for Erceg or Puk.

I think this is the more likely route they go with, if they make any significant trades. I'd bet they don't do anything of significance, but I'd bet the pen, especially a lefty, is probably their focus. The challenge is that relievers still cost a lot in prospects, and that's why I wouldn't expect them to go too big there. The Lopez trade from a couple years ago is probably still in the back of their mind, too.

mnfireman · July 9, 2024

Trade deadline adds:

Lewis, Topa & Stewart from IL

Lopez returns to second half 2023 form

JD-TWINS · July 9, 2024

4 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Lopez / Ryan / Ober / SWR

Health allowing, the Twins have the makings of a good rotation again in 2025 so I don't necessarily think they'd give up a ton of prospect capital to acquire a controllable starter. The better play is either bullpen arms or a starter on an expiring deal that slots as either a #3 or #4, and lets the Twins shift Paddack to the pen for the post-season.

I don’t think there’s any doubt Paddack is in the Pen in October.

I know this is boring & I’m in the minority, but I don’t see any changes as being a necessary move to be successful.

Varland to the Pen in September and Paddack with 10 days left in September gets the last 2 guys displaced. That’s all that will be needed. I’m assuming Stewart is healthy and contributing in September as well……add those 3 to Staumont - Alcala - (a lefty) - Jax - Duran.

My possible add - would be a trade with the Blue Jays for Berrios. They need spending freedom to sign Guerrero & Bichette, possibly? Berrios slots as our #2 guy for next 3-4 years. Festa & 2 other guys (Julien) and maybe a young prospect? He’s $20M/yr average for 4 years and he’s 30…….that’s what decent pitchers cost…….he’s at $18.7M for next 2 years and then goes up for last 2 years.

JD-TWINS · July 9, 2024

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Pablo has never been "right" by the definition fans and the writers on this site talk about. 2021 is the only time he flashed ace caliber results in his career. He's a back end #2 guy if he's "right" which he's been far away from this year.

MANY pundits had him in their Top 5 for A.L. Cy Young going into the season. He was Top 3 in the game in K’s in ‘23. He’s on pace to get to 200 K’s again in ‘24 with 190 innings again as well. His ERA is inflated due to a handful of bad outings, of the 18 starts he’s had. His SO rate & walk rate are very good - his WHIP is 1.19 so I think his Earned Run issues are fixable. He’s given up too much contact by getting behind and not being locked in with his change-up.

He gave up 1 run in 2 starts, over 12 1/3 innings for a .71 ERA in PLAYOFFS in ‘23.

MABB1959 · July 9, 2024

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

In a 7 game series in the playoffs, anything is possible. Both wild card teams made the world series last year, not the heavyweights.

I agree but our history with NYY is dismal. If we face the Orioles maybe. i just think it is risky to give up our future this year.

Cory Engelhardt · July 9, 2024

34 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I agree but our history with NYY is dismal. If we face the Orioles maybe. i just think it is risky to give up our future this year.

Ok, I'll throw it back at you. What does the 2010 Twins have to do with this season? If you say more than nothing, I'll disagree with you.

Follow up, what does giving up our future here mean to you? I would imagine my view of "giving up the future" would be different than yours, comparing to what they would have to trade to acquire help at the deadline.

OptimisticTwinsFan · July 9, 2024

8 hours ago, Trov said:

I find it unlikely they go after Bassitt or Gausman because of the contracts. I can see them asking about Kikuchi for depth and possible 4th starter in playoffs if needed. Not sure what the ask would be. It really is a sellers market right now. In the NL only 2 teams are fully out of playoff chance. There are several teams that are not likely to be buyers, depending on what happens next couple of weeks but may not be full fire sale either. In AL there are 3 teams fully out of it, 2 teams that are pretty much out, Toronto being one of them, and 4 teams within 5.5 games of a playoff spot. Texas is one of them and I bet they look to buy to give a push because they have a roster that can win in playoffs if they get there. Top end pitching if healthy and can be a strong offense.

The only other thing to think about is that the Twins are one cold stretch away from getting passed in the wild card race, the race continues to remain tight and will be throughout the season. The Twins are one arm injury away to Lopez, Ryan, or Ober to being completely cooked--as in no point in even continuing the season cooked.

I think there are reasons to bring in a quality starter even if they aren't high-end because of managing the downside risk that the Twins are sort of teetering right now. If they do this, I like going after expiring veterans for hopefully pretty cheap (Tyler Anderson) is another name.

Mike Sixel · July 9, 2024

The Twins aren't adding Berrios, who makes 18+ million per year until he's 34 years old. No chance. He has his lowest strikeout percentage in years this year. I don't know why anyone thinks this is going to happen, on a team that cut payroll this off season.

Jim wyllie · July 9, 2024

I agree kikuchi makes the most sense and it gives them the flexibility in the off season to extend him or look into lezardo if he's available in a trade

tony&rodney · July 9, 2024

One thing that seems reasonable is to understand the financial budgetary limits of a organization. We do not need to agree or be pleased but when a team suggests that they are going to stay within an area, it doesn't hurt to take them at their word. Maybe the Twins surprise us and are willing to spend, but for now it makes sense to know the budget is fairly tight. That means not adding anything past .... say $3-6 million for the remainder of the season. Oh I'm all for $150-200 million payroll for the Twins but I'm not writing any checks for the players, so I do pay attention to ownership's wishes. That is not in any way an agreement but just a reality.

bean5302 · July 9, 2024

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

MANY pundits had him in their Top 5 for A.L. Cy Young going into the season. He was Top 3 in the game in K’s in ‘23. He’s on pace to get to 200 K’s again in ‘24 with 190 innings again as well. His ERA is inflated due to a handful of bad outings, of the 18 starts he’s had. His SO rate & walk rate are very good - his WHIP is 1.19 so I think his Earned Run issues are fixable. He’s given up too much contact by getting behind and not being locked in with his change-up.

He gave up 1 run in 2 starts, over 12 1/3 innings for a .71 ERA in PLAYOFFS in ‘23.

I care about results, man. Not hype, and Pablo Lopez was hyped to the moon after his playoff results, just like 'ol buddy Captain Average, HoF'er Jack Morris. Now, Lopez is way better than Morris. There is only 1 season in Lopez's career where his ERA was lower 3.61, and it was a year where Lopez pitched only 102.2 innings. Lopez's ERAs have always trailed his FIPs, just like other 'ol buddy, Ricky Nolasco. When you see a major split between ERA and FIP for several years/career, it's not luck. It's a pattern.

Side note, a 1.19 WHIP is mediocre. Lopez's WHIP (#41 of 73 qualified starters) is bracketed by household pitching studs like Matt Waldron 3.61 ERA/3.66 FIP and Brandon Pfaadt 4.19 ERA/3.78 FIP. Two Cy Young favorites for next year for sure.

mark sills · July 9, 2024

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

A week or 2 is of no use when you need the starter in 5 days. Sure, Festa could make the start, but beyond that it gets ugly quick. And I'd argue Varland and Festa is already ugly. It wouldn't be crazy to put him in the pen now, but there's also a logical reason not to. I'd expect Festa is their #6 next year with Varland in the pen and Zebby or one of the other AA arms currently being the Festa next year. I don't think Varland in the pen now vs September makes much of a difference.

move zebby and Andrew Morris to triple a and see how they do still might be able to help this year

bean5302 · July 9, 2024

4 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Not sure about that. He was a legit ace in last year's post-season.

Yeah. Andrew Albers was an ace for his first 2 games in 2013, too. If 2 or 3 game sample sizes were what determined whether or not a pitcher should be considered an ace, MLB would be overflowing with them.

Beast · July 10, 2024

If I’m running the FO, I’m not trading for a starter unless they’re a real needle mover in the playoff rotation. We don’t need a #3-4 starter to make the playoffs, and a pitcher of that caliber won’t help in the playoffs.

Kikuchi is not a needle mover by any stretch. Not a great pitcher to begin with (career ERA is rough), but not sure I feel any better running him out against most the loaded offenses in the AL (Yankees, Astros, etc. are pretty scary for a lefty). He has no playoff experience/track record.

Id rather load up the bullpen than trade for a marginal starter.

Also, it’s pretty sad that we have write-off every potential playoff rotation piece because they make $20M. That’s why we never won anything playoff-wise in the 00s, and why we’ll likely continue to get bounced early until it changes (or develop multiple rotation hammers).

KBJ1 · July 10, 2024

Kikuchi, being a Lefty could be useful.

Also in the BP during playoffs.

An affordable rental.

Beast · July 10, 2024

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

I agree but our history with NYY is dismal. If we face the Orioles maybe. i just think it is risky to give up our future this year.

What future? 3 of our top 5 prospects have appeared in major league games this year (counting Lewis who has played about a half of a season in the majors). Our top prospect (Jenkins) might be 3+ years away.

We’ve been waiting for this “future” since Mauer was drafted. There’s always a savior on the horizon that never shows. There’s always a team we can’t beat yet.

I agree that they shouldn’t make a trade just to make it. But, at some point over the course of 25 years, you have to go for it.

DocBauer · July 10, 2024

"A playoff caliber starter" is what's often heard. Right behind that we hear "an ACE".

ACES are rare and really expensive. I mean, a real, true, legitimate CY Young candidate or top finisher year to year. Think Verlander. A playoff caliber starer is also very expensive, still might qualify as a #1 starter, and also come expensive. Personally, I'd rather try to get one...were it possible and the Twins goal...in the offseason and not as a mid year move as part of a bidding auction.

Anyway...back to "a playoff caliber starter" and what that means to the Twins. Pablo has not has a good of a year as 2023...so far anyway...but has certainly flashed many times. The underlying numbers are all solid. And he's smart, and a hard worker. So why the inconsistencies this season? I don't have a clue. Mechanical, mental, sequencing, just his turn for some bad BABIP type of luck, IDK. But he's a good arm. To say he's not is disingenuous IMO. Ryan is pitching about as anyone around. To just assume he will suddenly become injured like last year is short sighted isn't it? I mean, anyone can become injured, yes? Ober is very solid, has looked about as good as ever his past handful of starts, and doesn't look like he's slowing down.

So who exactly are you going to acquire when over half the teams in MLB are still within a handful of games of being in contention? Just how much is this new arm going to cost? And just how easy do you think it's going to be to get someone BETTER than the top 3 arms we have right now? And if you don't get better arms, then why bother?

Look, I'm not saying don't improve the club and never make trades. Not at all. But it also has to make sense. And I don't see who you are going to get MID YEAR that's actually really good, and available, and not going to be auctioned off at a really high cost. And again, if you aren't getting someone back even better than what we have, there is no point.

I'm more concerned with the LH side of the pen right now than I am the rotation. I know not everyone shares my faith in our top 3 starters, but that's where I'm sitting.

If I'm going to add from the Jays, it's clearly Kikuchi for me. He's going to be a relatively inexpensive rental, his remaining salary isn't much, he's experienced, he's still solid, and he offers an interesting LH pen option in the post season.

JD-TWINS · July 10, 2024

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Twins aren't adding Berrios, who makes 18+ million per year until he's 34 years old. No chance. He has his lowest strikeout percentage in years this year. I don't know why anyone thinks this is going to happen, on a team that cut payroll this off season.

$6M this year for the balance of the season.

Absence of Farmer - Kepler - Margot - Santana adds up to $24M less spending in ‘25.

They’ll have some arbitration increases but it’s worth considering.

Berrios stats are pretty good other than a propensity to give up HR’s. His strikeouts are at a career low but his WHIP is still very good at 1.13. 115 innings this far leads one to believe he’ll get to 200 innings this year. 3.76 ERA and averages over 6 innings per start - could be a nice addition.

USAFChief · July 10, 2024

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The only thing you read in that entire quote was "short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited"

Wouldn't a deadline deal most likely involve a short term player investment?

And, not for nothing, if they're unwilling to add payroll on a short term contract, you think they'd add long term money?

tony&rodney · July 10, 2024

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Absence of Farmer - Kepler - Margot - Santana adds up to $24M less spending in ‘25.

True, but in addition to arbitration raises there will also be an extra $18.5 million due to Lopez and Paddack. A very rough guess on the arb raises adds somewhere near $15 million. Maybe the budget goes up, but it could go down too.

The only way the Twins add a decent starting pitcher is to trade someone that hurts. Who would people ask for if the Twins called suggesting a deal?

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