3 Potential Twins Trades for Marlins Starter Jesús Luzardo

chpettit19 · December 18, 2023

Have any of the reports about the possible Pasquantino for Luzardo deal suggested there were any other significant pieces that would've been involved? Or are we to believe that it was basically a 1 for 1 swap with maybe a low level lottery ticket thrown in kind of like the Lopez for Arraez deal? If we go with the assumption that it was basically a 1 for 1 swap I'm wondering why the Twins would be giving up more than Julien in a basically 1 for 1 swap. Certainly wouldn't be adding a top 100 global prospect and a viable MLB starting cOF in the deal.

Would anyone here trade Julien, ERod, and Kepler for Pasquantino (ignoring the division concerns and just talking talent). I'm not a believer in the BTV stuff so don't know what they rank Pasquantino as, but Julien had basically the same OPS+ and WRC+ as Pasquantino did in his rookie season in 2022. Julien has more control than Pasquantino. And if you believe he can stay at 2B has more defensive value than Pasquantino (I'd argue he's probably best served at playing 1B like Pasquantino, but that's neither here nor there).

If it was a 1 for 1 swap of Pasquantino for Luzardo then I think we have a better idea of how the Marlins value Luzardo than using BTV values. What would you give up for Pasquantino? That's, theoretically, what you'd have to give up for Luzardo.

Brock Beauchamp · December 18, 2023

3 hours ago, Ely Sussman said:

Marlins correspondent here!

Every Luzardo trade scenario is pretty deflating, although I recognize this figures to be the peak of his value, so it’s unsurprising that Miami is considering it. Trade #1 would be the easiest to stomach. Passing on Lee in the draft was such an unforced error.

For those unaware, Ely runs Fish On First, the Marlins equivalent of Twins Daily.

nicksaviking · December 18, 2023

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Have any of the reports about the possible Pasquantino for Luzardo deal suggested there were any other significant pieces that would've been involved? Or are we to believe that it was basically a 1 for 1 swap with maybe a low level lottery ticket thrown in kind of like the Lopez for Arraez deal? If we go with the assumption that it was basically a 1 for 1 swap I'm wondering why the Twins would be giving up more than Julien in a basically 1 for 1 swap. Certainly wouldn't be adding a top 100 global prospect and a viable MLB starting cOF in the deal.

Would anyone here trade Julien, ERod, and Kepler for Pasquantino (ignoring the division concerns and just talking talent). I'm not a believer in the BTV stuff so don't know what they rank Pasquantino as, but Julien had basically the same OPS+ and WRC+ as Pasquantino did in his rookie season in 2022. Julien has more control than Pasquantino. And if you believe he can stay at 2B has more defensive value than Pasquantino (I'd argue he's probably best served at playing 1B like Pasquantino, but that's neither here nor there).

If it was a 1 for 1 swap of Pasquantino for Luzardo then I think we have a better idea of how the Marlins value Luzardo than using BTV values. What would you give up for Pasquantino? That's, theoretically, what you'd have to give up for Luzardo.

No kidding. The Twins could beat a deal headlined by Pasquantino without much sweat. Maybe I just don't view a DH/1B guy with only moderate power high enough, but the Marlins should be able to do better than that.

chpettit19 · December 18, 2023

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

No kidding. The Twins could beat a deal headlined by Pasquantino without much sweat. Maybe I just don't as highly of the DH/1B guy with only moderate power, but the Marlins should be able to do better than that.

I'd certainly think they could. The packages here are definitely better than straight up for Pasquantino (I actually like him a lot, but he's not a star or anything). I think Julien for Luzardo is probably the core of a deal with a low level prospect thrown in here or there. Again, assuming that it was a 1 for 1 swap that the Marlins were willing to do for Pasquantino. Weird to me that the Marlins would be willing to do that, but it certainly could open the doors for the Twins if that's all it'd take.

DocBauer · December 18, 2023

Chpettit19 more or less beat me to the punch. I LOVE Arraez and still miss him, even though I'm very, very glad to have Lopez. And I would NEVER attempt to disparage Arraez in ANY way whatsoever.

He is maybe the best pure "hitter" in MLB, meaning he sprays line drives all over the place that fall in more than anyone else in baseball. That also makes him pretty clutch. His BB are somewhat limited, but combined with his high AVG he creates a high OB%.

But...he's limited defensively, and doesn't have much power, and very little speed. That's just reality, not trying to de-value him.

So he alone brings in a #2 SP that some viewed as #3 when acquired, albeit with #2 potential, and the Marlins even throw in a couple of pieces besides.

But now Luzardo will cost us a pair of top 10 prospects and more? Or a pair of just graduated from top 10 prospect status plus more? But the Royals were almost teading a 1B straight up for him?

I guess I probably don't know as much about Luzardo as some. But that really confuses me. Makes both #1 and #2 options sound like an overpay.

Maybe the younger and even less expensive Camargo replaces Jeffers in #3 and the switch hitting and powerful Severino completes the deal by either replacing or adding to Larnach? Miami gets Polanco for 2 more years and 3 guys pretty much ready to play/compete right now, all with power, and one at a premium defensive position.

Just spitballing a little her

Again, I just can't imagine a 1B 1 for 1 for Luzardo. And a 1 for 3 swap of Arraez for Lopez. But the Twins need 2 top 10's, or just graduated top 10's, plus more for Luzardo?

I was never outstanding at math, but something doesn't add up right to me here.

Doctor Gast · December 18, 2023

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Offer Farmer and Vasquez and E. Rodriguez.

I respect your opinion Tarheel, but I'm sorry those players won't get us close to solving our SP problem, they'd get us a prospect plus having to pay MIA maybe $5MM to boot. This trade helps MIA but same time creates holes in our INF & catching.

Twinsoholic · December 18, 2023

Luzardo and a low A ball position player prospect for Julian and Lee. This approximates the 3 Marlins for 1 Twins (Arraez) last off season). The Twins goal is then to extend Luzardo a la the Lopez extension.

High heat · December 18, 2023

I think looking into Max Meyer and AJ Puk.

The 2 combined are likely worth half the value of Luzardo.

ashbury · December 18, 2023

5 hours ago, Ely Sussman said:

Passing on Lee in the draft was such an unforced error.

Heh, I just refreshed my memory on how Luzardo was acquired. He was drafted in 2016 by the Nationals, one spot after the Twins, who took the illustrious.... Griffin Jax. I know a lot of people here like Jax, but c'mon, with perfect hindsight we coulda woulda shoulda had Luzardo.

nicksaviking · December 18, 2023

13 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Heh, I just refreshed my memory on how Luzardo was acquired. Drafted in 2016 by the Nationals, one spot after the Twins, who took the illustrious.... Griffin Jax. I know a lot of people here like Jax, but c'mon, with perfect hindsight we coulda woulda shoulda had Luzardo.

Ha, that's funny, because at the time I loathed the Jax pick. Waste a 3rd round pick on a guy who couldn't even strike batters out in the flippin' Mountain West Conference? Are you kidding me!?!?!?!

Then the last two years he's grown on me. Until now. You ruined him for me.

ashbury · December 18, 2023

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Ha, that's funny, because at the time I loathed the Jax pick. Waste a 3rd round pick on a guy who couldn't even strike batters out in the flippin' Mountain West Conference? Are you kidding me!?!?!?!

Then the last two years he's grown on me. Until now. You ruined him for me.

I'm on record enough times on Jax already. Nothing there to ruin, for me.

Oldgoat_MN · December 18, 2023

All I want is to look at a BBRef or FanGraphs page from 2028 and see what Lee did in 2024, '25, '26 and '27. Then I'd know at least one player to offer or not offer.

Anyone got a password for that?

TopGunn#22 · December 19, 2023

The 3rd trade is not realistic. I had listed some trade options for Luzardo in another post that were very similar to these and came to the conclusion that he's just too expensive a piece to go after. I view Vinnie Pasquantino much like Kirilloff. A great swing but injury prone. Vinnie alone wouldn't be near enough to bring back Luzardo. site We have guys on here (myself included) that post some pretty unrealistic stuff. I don't mind. Swapping ideas back and forth is why we love this site. Nobody goes to jail for a "bad take."

So in my post, after determining that the price for Luzardo was just going to be too high, I recalibrated to lesser targets with a suggestion on Trevor Rogers (in the hopes that the Twins get the 2021 version and NOT 2022-2023). Or that we should set our sights on affordable but unproven pitchers like Miller or Woo from Seattle.

The problem with that, is that the Twins stated goal is to find a #2 to slot behind Lopez. Miller and Woo wouldn't even slot ahead of Ryan. Someone like Logan Allen (Cleveland) would also be more affordable but even though he's young and talented, still wouldn't begin the season starting ahead of Joe Ryan.

Acquiring Alcantara would be a brilliant move for the future. He's got a REALLY affordable contract for the next 5 years for a guy with his kind of talent. But he's out all of 2024 following Tommy John. The Twins have a division crown to defend and Alcantara doesn't help them in 2024.

How about trading Polanco to the Guardians for Shane Bieber. Bieber is going to be dealt by Cleveland. He battled through some injuries and velo issues last year, but he's just 29 and makes an affordable $12 million in 2024. But in 2022 he was 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and solid WHIP. if he does well we can try to convince him to stay but at least we're not giving up young talent for potentially one season. Polanco's $10 million dollar salary is pretty even match. Cleveland just shifted Gimenez to SS after trading Rosario at the deadline last year. They need offense and they need a 2B. Julien and Lee have 2B covered for the Twins in 2024. If the Guardians like Polanco, they can pick up his option for 2025.

DocBauer · December 19, 2023

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

For those of you mentioning Julian or Polanco in a trade here, why would the Marlins want another second baseman when they have Arreaz? We've got to look at these proposals from their point of view.

I'm not really familiar with the Marlins team, to be honest, so I'm going to be a bit vague here. But I think Polanco is a better defensive 2B than Arraez. Polanco can also cover 3B, though not great. Like he did with the Twins, Arraez can play 1B. In fact, I think he's pretty good there. Also, there is the option for Arraez to just DH and be a BATTER. Polanco is a very good hitter, solid OB guy, solid contact low K batter, good clutch hitter, has legitimate 50-60 XBH ability.

We keep talking about trading him as if he has no value to the Twins. He has TREMENDOUS value to the Twins, and has for years! He's on the block because he's very good, is cost controlled for the next 2yrs, and the Twins have two guys already in place to replace him.

Polanco is a very good ballplayer that is available to acquire and add a lot to many teams. Miami is one of them. When you are a team needing offense, like Miami, even Seattle for that matter, you look to ADD for what you need. And sometimes, you figure out later where everyone fits. The very fact Miami was looking to KC to add a good 1B is almost a tell that they might consider moving Arraez to 1B and add Polanco to 2B. And the universal DH has also changed a lot of roster construction.

So yeah, Polanco has real value. Including Miami.

SteveLV · December 19, 2023

Is there any indication that the Marlins want to move Alcantara rather than paying him to rehab for the 2024 season to the tune of $9M guaranteed plus $17M in 2025 coming off TJS and $17M in 2026 and $21M in 2027????

So $64M guaranteed through 2027?

I am truly asking if the Marlins experts here have any information on that. Because that might be a contract they want to get away from and that might be the catalyst of a larger deal, assuming the Twins are willing to take on that contract???

Thoughts?

jorgenswest · December 19, 2023

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd certainly think they could. The packages here are definitely better than straight up for Pasquantino (I actually like him a lot, but he's not a star or anything). I think Julien for Luzardo is probably the core of a deal with a low level prospect thrown in here or there. Again, assuming that it was a 1 for 1 swap that the Marlins were willing to do for Pasquantino. Weird to me that the Marlins would be willing to do that, but it certainly could open the doors for the Twins if that's all it'd take.

Someone backed out on this deal or leaked the rumor. Is it possible the Marlins asked for more and then the Royals went the free agency route instead? The deal didn’t happen for some reason. Did the deal get leaked in hopes of getting other teams in on Luzardo?

chpettit19 · December 19, 2023

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Someone backed out on this deal or leaked the rumor. Is it possible the Marlins asked for more and then the Royals went the free agency route instead? The deal didn’t happen for some reason. Did the deal get leaked in hopes of getting other teams in on Luzardo?

The reports I've seen (including a pretty in depth article on The Athletic) report that the Royals FO people brought 2 options to their owner: 1. Trade Pasquantino to Miami for Luzardo or 2. Sign Michael Wacha. The owner decided to spend the extra money.

Is that all the details from everyone involved? Of course not. But it sure sounds like a 1 for 1 swap was more or less the deal and the Royals are the ones who turned it down. That doesn't mean the Marlins view Julien, or any other Twins player, the way they view Pasquantino, but if it really was just a 1 for 1 these packages are significant overpays.

chpettit19 · December 19, 2023

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

For those of you mentioning Julian or Polanco in a trade here, why would the Marlins want another second baseman when they have Arreaz? We've got to look at these proposals from their point of view.

All 3 of those players could play 1B. In fact both Julien and Arraez did play some 1B last year. They need offense and I'd think they'd be willing to move one of these guys to 1B if they felt they were the best offensive piece they could get.

The Marlins had a 2B last year, too. He was their best player. They moved him to another position (CF) when they got Arraez (it actually sounded like it was his idea to move there).

jorgenswest · December 19, 2023

52 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The reports I've seen (including a pretty in depth article on The Athletic) report that the Royals FO people brought 2 options to their owner: 1. Trade Pasquantino to Miami for Luzardo or 2. Sign Michael Wacha. The owner decided to spend the extra money.

Is that all the details from everyone involved? Of course not. But it sure sounds like a 1 for 1 swap was more or less the deal and the Royals are the ones who turned it down. That doesn't mean the Marlins view Julien, or any other Twins player, the way they view Pasquantino, but if it really was just a 1 for 1 these packages are significant overpays.

In that case I would expect Luzardo to be moved. Someone will have a Pasquantino to offer. On the other hand, I probably don’t value Pasquantino as much as I should. His BTV value surprised me as it was comparable with Jenkins and Ryan. I would have guessed below Lee and Julien. Assuming the Marlins are looking for the best 1 for 1 and not a package of lesser players, would you trade Jenkins for him?

Fatbat · December 19, 2023

Luzardo isn’t leaving Miami until Otani plays 1B for a few months in Dodger blue and finds out his pitching career is over… and thats the trade.

DocBauer · December 19, 2023

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The reports I've seen (including a pretty in depth article on The Athletic) report that the Royals FO people brought 2 options to their owner: 1. Trade Pasquantino to Miami for Luzardo or 2. Sign Michael Wacha. The owner decided to spend the extra money.

Is that all the details from everyone involved? Of course not. But it sure sounds like a 1 for 1 swap was more or less the deal and the Royals are the ones who turned it down. That doesn't mean the Marlins view Julien, or any other Twins player, the way they view Pasquantino, but if it really was just a 1 for 1 these packages are significant overpays.

If this is actual, then then the Tiwns should JUMP to offer something that would include a combination of offers that might include Polanco, Larnach, Severino, Camargo, and Kirilloff.

Polanco fits 2B and a great bat for 2yrs. Arraez moves to 1B/DH. Larnach, even never reaching hopeful production could almost accidentally provide 20HR and 30Dbls while hitting .230. Camargo is a reportedly solid backstop with power. Severino is a bit of an unknown, but has power and switch hit ability that we might regret moving. Kirilloff's shoulder injury is NOT related to his wrist injury that has held him back from being the top prospect and player he was supposed to be, and has glimpsed to being.

I try to look at the other team when trades are involved. I don't always know exactly what they need, but that's the perspective I try to take. And Miami needs offense. They have the pitching depth to make it happen.

As Twins fans, I think we undervalue what we have. We see Julien at 2B, Lee as a possible, but we sometimes forget how damn good Polanco is, for example.

No offense to Pasquanito, but I'd rather have Polanco, and Kirilloff, plus another prospect or two that is ready, or near ready, to move my team forward. Supposedly, the Marlins want a catcher. So why wouldn't they be interested in a solid, young catcher like Camargo? Do they want a solid veteran like Vazquez to nurture their staff? Fine! Include Vazquez as part of the deal and pick up part of his contract go make it happen.

But at what point do the Twins stop giving if this was an actual ALMOST trade?

Pasquantino vs Polanco and some combination of Larnach and Camargo/Vazquez and AK/Severino, maybs a lower level throw in HAS TO BE better than a 1B right?

If this proposal was at all accurate, I just can't believe the Royaks backed down. Even if there was another player/prospect involved it makes no sense to me. The Twins could up the ante TWICE to make this deal happen without disrupting the team/system.

Historyking88 · December 19, 2023

There’s no way the Twins are trading Lee or Jeffers. The only option that makes sense is option 2. If you trade Julien then Lee steps in as your new 2B.

Doctor Wu · December 19, 2023

If we want to get a pitcher like Luzardo we are going to have to give up a very good prospect or two. It will hurt, or at least initially feel like we are giving up too much. But if the Twins truly have the notion to compete next year, we need that extra piece for the rotation. If it's a choice, I'd rather part with Lee than Julien or Rodriquez.

Riverbrian · December 19, 2023

7 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

In that case I would expect Luzardo to be moved. Someone will have a Pasquantino to offer. On the other hand, I probably don’t value Pasquantino as much as I should. His BTV value surprised me as it was comparable with Jenkins and Ryan. I would have guessed below Lee and Julien. Assuming the Marlins are looking for the best 1 for 1 and not a package of lesser players, would you trade Jenkins for him?

Jenkins would be tempting but why would the Marlins weaken a young playoff team today for tomorrow?

Moving Luzardo doesn't make much sense unless you are getting immediate major league offense back.

chpettit19 · December 19, 2023

7 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

In that case I would expect Luzardo to be moved. Someone will have a Pasquantino to offer. On the other hand, I probably don’t value Pasquantino as much as I should. His BTV value surprised me as it was comparable with Jenkins and Ryan. I would have guessed below Lee and Julien. Assuming the Marlins are looking for the best 1 for 1 and not a package of lesser players, would you trade Jenkins for him?

I wouldn't, and I don't think they'd want Jenkins, I think they'd want Julien. And I'd do that trade if I were the Twins.

miracleb · December 19, 2023

ANY of these trades....for three years.......hard pass. This trade might still happen....but the Twins will NOT have to give up this much.

Major League Ready · December 19, 2023

12 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The problem with that, is that the Twins stated goal is to find a #2 to slot behind Lopez. Miller and Woo wouldn't even slot ahead of Ryan. Someone like Logan Allen (Cleveland) would also be more affordable but even though he's young and talented, still wouldn't begin the season starting ahead of Joe Ryan.

Has someone from the FO actually made this statement or is it the stated goal of TD posters? I am not saying it should not be the goal but has the FO actually taken a stance? I am curious because that would narrow down the possibilities.

jorgenswest · December 19, 2023

57 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Jenkins would be tempting but why would the Marlins weaken a young playoff team today for tomorrow?

Moving Luzardo doesn't make much sense unless you are getting immediate major league offense back.

If getting the best young ready position player in a 1 for 1 deal is the Marlins goal, the only player the Twins have with a BTV value of Pasquantino is Lewis. The others are about 20% below his value. Of course it depends on the Marlins view but I assume it is very favorable of Pasquantino. If Julien is the best 1 for 1 the Twins have to offer, I think many teams can beat that deal starting with the Yankees and Volpe.

jorgenswest · December 19, 2023

59 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I wouldn't, and I don't think they'd want Jenkins, I think they'd want Julien. And I'd do that trade if I were the Twins.

I agree about Jenkins. I would do the Julien deal also but I don’t think it is enough. Someone will offer a better player that isn’t a platoon player. I don’t think it can be fixed by adding marginal players to go with Julien.

Major League Ready · December 19, 2023

22 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

If getting the best young ready position player in a 1 for 1 deal is the Marlins goal, the only player the Twins have with a BTV value of Pasquantino is Lewis. The others are about 20% below his value. Of course it depends on the Marlins view but I assume it is very favorable of Pasquantino. If Julien is the best 1 for 1 the Twins have to offer, I think many teams can beat that deal starting with the Yankees and Volpe.

IDK Volpe would be that attractive to the marlins. They are looking for offense. Volpe had a wRC+ of 84. Julien's was 136. Julien was the grossly superior offense player last year. Perhaps the people making these decisions believe he will rebound offensively. Volpe has 1.9 WAR playing 159 games. Julien 2.8 in 109 games. Of course, the Marlins are looking for a SS which makes Volpe a better fit in terms of position but he probably would not improve their offense.

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3 Potential Twins Trades for Marlins Starter Jesús Luzardo

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