Three-Bagger: DH, Dozier And Destiny

 

We've seen how shrewd this new front office is

The word "shrewd" is a bit of a stretch at this point.

This regime I believe wants to move on from this group of players and in my mind they are slowly but surely moving talent that previous regime assembled here out the door. I look at next year I could see the Twins without Dozier, Mauer, Santana, Vargas, Escobar, Grossman, Duffy, and Sano very easily gone by next year. I could see the Twins trading Dozier, Santana, and Escobar at trading deadline if were not in contention in July even if were out like last year 4 to 5 games on the wild card. Vargas is gone before season opens. Duffy could be traded by July but more than likely gone before next year. Sano if he has complete season and has better year than last year they will trade him for some more pitching. Gossman could be traded anytime in a deal to bring additional pitching. That leaves us with Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler of original twins before this regime was here and I wouldn't be surprised if one them are also traded in next year or so too. I look at the Twins going with infield of Royce Lewis at SS, Polanco at second or Gordon, some one they sign for first base, and when they trade they will get a third baseman thrown into the deal. Also Hughes will be gone too and probably some more of pitchers in bull pen and in triple a. This regime wants to put there own stamp on this team and what we grew up developing players trying to sign them for long term I think is thing of the past with this group. They will put out public image of one thing but in fact they may be doing opposite thing with players and the organization. This is my gut feeling but they may win it all and be successful but it will have changed how baseball is done in this organization.

Best scenarios for Dozier: 

1. starts the season with the Twins, ramps up his value and gets traded for a decent, not spectacular, return.
2. we're back to the Dodgers and still don't get what we'd want, but would still take it. 

Grossman is the type of guy you need when you don't have a very good team.  I'm thinking we've moved beyond him.  Vargas, too.

I'm looking for seeing what Falvey and Levine do to make the Twins a consistent winner!

Problem for the mid market teams is staying on top.  The coast teams can buy players they need to fill in, mid market teams seem have a period where they are good and then a 4-5 year reload.  

I think if a player wants to  be here and work it out, that can probably happen. Most of those will be youngsters who sign a contract to take away the first few years of FA.  Once a player gets over 30, chances of an extension drop away a lot.  

This seems to mirror my thoughts on this era, where most of your average to average plus players are done fulltime in their early 30's.

Unless Pohlad steps in to keep a popular player, I can see this group trying to sign players to one extension and then in most cases letting the player walk.  

It's a harder approach, but this is where the market is heading.  We shall see if it bounces back, but it is going toward the era where only the great players get paid, and most of the rest will be interchangeable parts.  Only the clubs with lots of money will have the luxury of  having a huge payroll.

Best scenarios for Dozier: 

1. starts the season with the Twins, ramps up his value and gets traded for a decent, not spectacular, return.
2. we're back to the Dodgers and still don't get what we'd want, but would still take it. 

 

Grossman is the type of guy you need when you don't have a very good team.  I'm thinking we've moved beyond him.  Vargas, too.

 

I'm looking for seeing what Falvey and Levine do to make the Twins a consistent winner!

The best scenario for Dozier is that the Twins are winning and he is an important part of a contending team. I really don't understand why so many are making deadline trade plans for this team. This is a concession that you make if everything falls apart.

Grossman is the type of guy that good teams have. He is the Gene Larkin of this team. He is a great bench bat that can sub in at DH or in the OF in case of an injury or a matchup. He shouldn't be a starter or a team's primary DH but good teams have solid hitters on the bench. But this role isn't really needed on a team with a 1B and a 1B at DH. And a 3B that might need to DH. And a backup catcher that could DH occasionally. I expect him to start the season on the Twins but I think it is unlikely that he finishes the season with the Twins (injuries happen though).

This regime I believe wants to move on from this group of players and in my mind they are slowly but surely moving talent that previous regime assembled here out the door. I look at next year I could see the Twins without Dozier, Mauer, Santana, Vargas, Escobar, Grossman, Duffy, and Sano very easily gone by next year. I could see the Twins trading Dozier, Santana, and Escobar at trading deadline if were not in contention in July even if were out like last year 4 to 5 games on the wild card. Vargas is gone before season opens. Duffy could be traded by July but more than likely gone before next year. Sano if he has complete season and has better year than last year they will trade him for some more pitching. Gossman could be traded anytime in a deal to bring additional pitching. That leaves us with Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler of original twins before this regime was here and I wouldn't be surprised if one them are also traded in next year or so too. I look at the Twins going with infield of Royce Lewis at SS, Polanco at second or Gordon, some one they sign for first base, and when they trade they will get a third baseman thrown into the deal. Also Hughes will be gone too and probably some more of pitchers in bull pen and in triple a. This regime wants to put there own stamp on this team and what we grew up developing players trying to sign them for long term I think is thing of the past with this group. They will put out public image of one thing but in fact they may be doing opposite thing with players and the organization. This is my gut feeling but they may win it all and be successful but it will have changed how baseball is done in this organization.

I think this is a stretch. I think this regime is risk averse and not very interested in signing a player to a fairly large contract that ends well into his mid 30's. They could have signed Lynn/Cobb instead of trading a prospect for a lesser pitcher but they (have thus far) chose(n) to not sign Lynn/Cobb to a 4 year contract that likely turns sour by the end.

I think the rest of your expectations are reaching. Grossman simply doesn't have a role with this team (with Mauer and Morrison and Sano/Garver here). He may well be out due to that but that has more to do with being okay at a few things and not good at others (like defense). Santana will be gone when he isn't effective. If he has another nice year then I totally expect the Twins to exercise his option.

I predict Mauer will get Nowitzki type contracts as long as he wants to play and is moderately good. He could even take the Gene Larkin bench bat/spot starter role that I mentioned about Grossman above.

As nice as it is to have Grossman putting up good OBP numbers, I still can't see him bringing back much in a trade. Better to keep him than Vargas at this point.

Louis Opatz's excellent article about Zac Grannitte over at TT notwithstanding, I find myself agreeing with the Grossman-as-Larkin narrative.  I mean, on a truly juggernaut team, you have Manny Machado on your bench.  But in non-exhibition situations, it seems like in today's baseball, a patient, professional switch hitter who can pinch-hit in tough situations is a pretty valuable commodity.  In a pressure packed playoff game, I can much more easily imagine him coaxing a rally-sustaining walk than I can envision Vargas actually connecting for a homer.  

Chemistry is overrated, but then again, I see Grossman as a guy well-suited to a bench role; a guy who only needs 10 AB's to get ready in the spring should be able to perform without much playing time needed during the season!

Along those lines, Granite is perfect to stash in AAA as well--not a top prospect that is going to get bitter, but a hungry guy who will be ready when his name is called.

The Twins' first "window" is this season.  A significant reboot away from the leadership of Dozier/Mauer/Santana is looming.  The trade deadline will be interesting, not because of what Dozier might yield, but rather to see what prospects this shrewd-yet-risk-averse front office might give up to make a push with this old core.

"the new brass ain't too sentimental" This is what is refreshing to me. They do seem very shrewd to me. Heck this mid market team has been stocked but they still have cash to spend. 135m would fit their market size. They might not be done I think this off-season is going to produce some last minute one year deals

I'm a bit nostalgic.  Not a bit, a lot.  So I'd like to see them keep Dozier, but I don't know if it makes sense, given his age and probable salary in FA.  Same with Mauer.  My boys grew up with his Fathead on their wall!  But it's professional sports, which makes it a business with hard decisions that have to be made.  Ultimately, I want the FO to treat these two veterans right.  If that means they allow Dozier to leave and make life-changing money somewhere else, so be it.  If that means offering Mauer one-year contracts until he either a) can't play anymore or chooses to retire.  They both have earned that.

Thank you for a great article. Its great since it touches on so many points and raises a few questions.

First, maybe someone could clarify the seeming inconsistency that a) Grossman was second in OBP, but the DH position had an OBP of only .328.

Second, could someone explain how anyone, and I mean anyone, could generate such a negative Defensive Runs saved. Grossman didn't play RF often enough to let so many fly balls fall in and / or make so many bad throws.

As for Brian Dozier. I know. Minnesota sports fans, including me, aren't used to situations where Plan A is good, and Plan B is also good. Under Plans A & B, Dozier is certainly incentivized (and I hate that word also) to play well. If the Twins are "in it" (Plan A), they have a great 2B. If he leaves in FA, they have a number of good to great replacements in the minors. If the Twins are not "in it", then the Twins get something for someone who was going to go FA anyway.

Finally, Joe. Aside from resigning him at his current contract levels (I forget $27 mill per?), there is again, not a bad outcome. If his '18 is like his '17, and he still wants to play, then that is good. If his '18 is like his '16 and / or he doesn't want to play, then they can exercise their option on Morrison and / or use one of their many minor leaguers who can hit and play 1B.

What I like about the FO is that they have created options such that two things have to go wrong rather than just one.

This is a new DH era.  Teams are using the position to rotate players. As a matter of fact, as far as the DH position goes, the Twins were 4th in the AL in wOBA, t4th in wRC+, and 7th in OPS, according to fangraphs.

 

Great to have Morrison, no argument there, but the DH production was hardly the Twins' issue last season, compared to the rest of the league

It presents a big opportunity to upgrade an offense that was 4th in the AL in OPS with a .768 OPS. It was actually the only possible improvement that the Twins could have made to the team since the other 8 positions were set. 

I agree that it was one of the smallest issues (compared to PITCHING) for the Twins but it did present an opportunity for improvement.

Some fans will complain about Dozier leaving.  However, if the Twins are in contention, it will be worth it to have him here for the entire season.  If the team falters, then the Twins get something at the trade deadline.   Either way, the Twins have Gordon waiting to step up and are strong in the middle infield for years to come. The added power with Logan Morrison, who will be here next year to more than make up fort the loss of Dozier's power in the line-up.  .

The first AAA spring training game start March 14.  I don't see much of a reason to cut guys till the 12th.  So I think we'll see some of the young pitchers for another week. So far I think Littell, Romero and Slegers look good.  Gonsalves doesn't look like he throws hard enough to be effective in the Bigs.  

Just for my personal edification, define "throws hard enough to be effective in the bigs"?

please expand

What is it they've done to demonstrate they have outsmarted anyone? I believe that would be the definition of "shrewd".

From Webster’s
“a : marked by clever discerning awareness and hardheaded acumen shrewd common sense
b : given to wily and artful ways or dealing a shrewd operator”

Notice no mention of innovation? I’d say the FO is absolutely savvy and has done a good job of implementing clever ways to improve.

Case in point: Rowson was a very good hire. The analytics dept improvement was very aware and keen to the situation at hand. Innovative? No that ship sailed a while ago.

So what has the FO done that isn’t “shrewd”? Give a reason why they aren’t shrewd, or even good at their jobs?

So far I would say they have been "competent", but I'm not willing to give them much beyond that. They are just doing what was pretty obvious that needed to be done while the prior regime sat stuck in the "Twins Way."

Shrewd would imply that they have somehow done something that no one was expecting, and superior to other orgs, and at this point I don't see enough to substantiate that. Sorry, but the OP is going to be favorable to the FO, and this sentence that we are dwelling on was just another example of that.