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    The Core Seven?


    Seth Stohs

    In mid-July, I wrote an article looking at the first half of what I’ve been calling The Core Four. The Core Four, in my opinion, is comprised of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios and Max Kepler.

    While it is clear that those four have the highest ceilings of any of the Twins young players, but it is becoming more and more clear that the Twins may have more than just four players that they may be able to rely upon for years to come.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

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    Let’s start by saying that The Core Four is still the core.

    At the time of the July article, Byron Buxton was in the middle of a mini-slump. However, with his defense, he was still very valuable. He figured some things out in August and had a huge month. A hand injury likely has stolen some pop from his swing, but his defense is still a must in the outfield.

    Max Kepler has had some ups and downs. He’s struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers, but that isn’t something that has historically been the case. He plays a strong right field and has continued to show increased power.

    Jose Berrios was great early, and he’s been more inconsistent from start to start the last six weeks or so. It’s clear that with his stuff, he is a large part of the Twins future.

    Miguel Sano has been hurt the last three weeks. He strikes out a ton, but there is no questioning the impact that he can have on the Twins lineup. His power is electrifying. And his defense at third base has been adequate at worst, so he is certainly part of the future.

    But since mid-July, a few others have put themselves in the conversation for being a part of the Twins new core. It’s not that they weren’t part of the future, but there were some question marks.

    ADALBERTO MEJIA

    Just 24-years-old, Mejia proved himself as a mid-rotation type of starter before experiencing an arm injury that cost him about a month. He has made three rehab starts in the Twins minor leagues, and he will return to the Twins rotation on Saturday against Toronto. Clearly he’s got good, starters stuff. He’s left-handed. He has enough velocity and is able to mix pitches well. If healthy, there is no reason that he shouldn’t be part of the Twins rotation for a half-decade or more.

    JORGE POLANCO

    In July, there were so many questions about Polanco. He was rarely playing because he looked lost at the plate, and at times, he was carrying it into the field. However, as the calendar changed to August, Polanco got back into the lineup and put up an incredible month. He posted an OPS well over 1.000 for the month.

    Is the 24-year-old part of the Twins future? Well, he’s certainly part of the 2018 season. Maybe Nick Gordon will come up at some point in 2018. Will Brian Dozier be traded or extended? In several of these scenarios, Polanco remains in the Twins starting lineup. And if not, he’ll be a starter in the big leagues for years.

    EDDIE ROSARIO

    No one has made bigger strides in 2017 than Eddie Rosario. Since signing with the Twins in 2009, it’s been clear that he is immensely talented, has quick hands, big power potential and strong defense (range and arm).

    What wasn’t clear is if he had it within him to quit swinging at so many pitches outside of the strike zone, or if he was even willing to try. Well, whether it was Rosario, James Rowson, Rudy Hernandez or someone else, Rosario has figured some things out. In fact, he has more walks this year than in the two previous seasons. He has been the Twins top hitter for most of the last three or four months. And, he’s just 25 years old still. If he can continue his trend of better strike zone judgment, he could be an all-star. He’s that talented.

    The “Core Four” are guys who were top prospects. Sano and Buxton were Top 10 overall prospects. Berrios was a Top 25 guy, and Kepler was a Top 50 guy. Mejia, Rosario and Polanco weren’t Top 50 prospects, but they were right on the borderline of the Top 100. Each of them made a Top 100 list or two as they were working their way up the organizational ladder. In other words, they haven’t just come out of nowhere. But what they have done this year is take a step forward in their development.

    I’m a big believer that overcoming struggles and difficulties is another part of the development. Maybe it’s the most important part of the development. There is a small group of prospects who work their way to the big leagues without finding extended period of struggle. They get to the big leagues. Have an extended slump, and you find out what they’re made of. Rosario and Polanco certainly fit into that category.

    The “Core Seven” isn’t as catchy as The “Core Four” but as a Twins fan, it’s great to see more and more reliable talent. These players will have to continue improving and becoming more and more consistent, but it’s in them. All seven are just coming into their primes and there is room to grow. That is what is the most exciting.

    Then consider the role-type of players that these guys can and will be surrounded by. Maybe not Top 100 types of prospects, but valuable pieces. Trevor Hildenberger, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss and Gabriel Moya weren’t Top 100 prospects, but that’s four bullpen arms that could be there for years. Mitch Garver would appear to be the backup catcher for the next several years with the bat to play more often. Zack Granite can be a quality starting outfielder who may find himself in a fourth outfielder role. And there are pitchers coming soon too.

    Couple that Core Seven, with all that additional young talent, and the future is bright. Couple that talent with the veterans like Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Ervin Santana and Matt Belisle playing so well, and that’s why this team currently has a two-game lead for a playoff spot with 17 games to go.

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    I'm probably the in the minority, but I think I believe in Rosario much more than I do Kepler. Lefties learning to hit lefties is a tough ask, but Rosario can and Kepler isn't.

    Eddie has made good contact at every level, looking at his career as a whole, last year was a clear outlier. He'll never be a superstar but aside from Sano, if someone asked me to put money on a guy who wouldn't be an offensive liability the next half decade, I'd be most confident about Rosario. It seems to me the only thing holding him back is his twice monthly poor throws.

    Most importantly, and I could be wrong, Eddie kind of looks like he's the Latin leader in the dugout. I want that guy.

    Dunno, I'm pretty close on both of them.

     

    Kepler has the advantage of age, defensive ability (which seems to be better than Rosario this year, and Max can cover CF better than Eddie), and polish/discipline.

     

    Rosario has the advantage of L/R splits, pure hitting ability, and current performance.

     

    I suspect they end up as similarly valuable players but get there very differently. I still believe Kepler probably has the higher ceiling, as it's hard to argue with plate discipline, especially as a player enters their prime.

     

    Eduardo Escobar?

    Between Escobar, Polanco, Adrianza, and even Dozier, I would guess Escobar seems like the odd man out this winter. It's too bad as he's one of my favorites. 

     

    Polanco as a trade piece might attract a very good pitcher in return, provided another team is willing to deal in good faith (unlike the Dodgers). 

     

    Between Escobar, Polanco, Adrianza, and even Dozier, I would guess Escobar seems like the odd man out this winter. It's too bad as he's one of my favorites. 

     

    Polanco as a trade piece might attract a very good pitcher in return, provided another team is willing to deal in good faith (unlike the Dodgers). 

     

    didn't the Dodgers just trade for a pitcher, in good faith?

    I would like to say this is all making of previous Front office and it looks like they were not as incompentent as all people on here have made them out. It just took time for these players to develop. I will give credit to this front office on several of new coaches hired it seems they have been able to turn the corner on this group of players in getting them to make needed changes. Also i have stated in past this front office was able give up on some previous high draft picks and let this new group play in there natural positions. The question is will this new Front office will be able add the right people and subtract right people in the future to improve this team in next few years because this core could win couple of championships if they can add pitching without subtracting to much from the core.

    This doesn't change my mind about the previous regime (namely, Ryan).

     

    Let say they win 88 games this year. Since Ryan took over in 1993 (about 25 years), that FO exceeded that win total 5 times. That's awful, especially considering 88 wins wouldn't get you into the playoffs most years under the 1 wild card system. I believe two of those years were under Bill Smith, technically (who is responsible for Sano, Polanco, Rosario, and Kepler), so Ryan wasn't about 3/20 in that regard.

     

    Let's also not forget the AL Central was one of the worst overall divisions in baseball during the time-frame that all of those seasons were accrued. Then, they never capitalize on a playoff appearance (zero World Series appearances, one ALCS)

     

    I've said before, if anyone deserve some credit for this season, it's probably Bill Smith. I'm certainly not going to start calling Ryan a genius.

     

    I don't think it's a coincidence that these young guys turned it on after getting fresh blood in here (aka not assuming it would be the same if the old regime were in place). They wouldn't have hired Rowson, who should probably get team MVP.

    Between Escobar, Polanco, Adrianza, and even Dozier, I would guess Escobar seems like the odd man out this winter. It's too bad as he's one of my favorites.

     

    Polanco as a trade piece might attract a very good pitcher in return, provided another team is willing to deal in good faith (unlike the Dodgers).

    I really hope that's not the case, and I think it would be a mistake to let him go in favor of Adrianza.

     

    Adrianza certainly won't hit as much going forward. There are other defensive whiz-kids in the minors (Vielma, etc) that could step in, or Gordon may be ready at some point next year (doubtful, IMO, but maybe).

     

    Escobar on the other hand, has been one of the most valuable and irreplaceable players on the team this year (IMO). He can play anywhere in the field, but I think "utility guy" role gets thrown around in poor context (implicating that he's somehow deficient as a player). It's more of a strength than an indictment. He's still young, and he has carried the team at times offensively. He's also loved in the clubhouse.

     

    Hes also still fairly young.

     

    He's an easy guy to overlook, admittedly, but I think he might be the best "utility" guy out there right now (remember the days of Nick Punto?!).

     

    I really hope that's not the case, and I think it would be a mistake to let him go in favor of Adrianza.

    Adrianza certainly won't hit as much going forward. There are other defensive whiz-kids in the minors (Vielma, etc) that could step in, or Gordon may be ready at some point next year (doubtful, IMO, but maybe).

    Escobar on the other hand, has been one of the most valuable and irreplaceable players on the team this year (IMO). He can play anywhere in the field, but I think "utility guy" role gets thrown around in poor context (implicating that he's somehow deficient as a player). It's more of a strength than an indictment. He's still young, and he has carried the team at times offensively. He's also loved in the clubhouse.

    Hes also still fairly young.

    He's an easy guy to overlook, admittedly, but I think he might be the best "utility" guy out there right now (remember the days of Nick Punto?!).

    I agree completely. I think Escobar is very valuable, as a player who can come off the bench in a game but also step into a position and play every day for several weeks and continue to hit, as he has done this year and in 2015 at short. 

    Rosario since August 6th (36 games):

     

    .308 with 12 HR and 33 RBI

     

    Twins since August 1st:

     

    Leading the MLB with 6.07 runs per game.

     

    Pretty staggering when you consider Sano has been out of the lineup for most of that.

     

    Rosario is not only a core piece for the future....but he's quietly the Twins best and most important offensive peice right now.

     

    .292/.329/.506/.835, 23 HR, 56 XBH, K rate of 3/1 for the entire season (nearly 500 AB), with pretty good defense. Something to consider is that he's hitting as a LH in Target Field, which may be stifling his HR numbers in relation to some other parks (which is why comparing some of these numbers is inherently flawed).

     

    If his progression stops right there, he's a very very good player. If he continues to get better, he's a freaking superstar.

    Rosario has a .220 higher OPS for his career at Target Field, and .300 higher this year.

     

    Target Field isn't hurting his numbers at all, in fact he's pretty bad everywhere else.

    I think Escobar is valuable to the Twins in that Sano may not be able to play full season at 3 base without getting hurt or worn down. Escobar has shown he can hit and play well enough at 3 plus he can fill in at other infield positions. I wonder what the Twins are going to do with Sano, Mauer, Vargas next year they do not have the option of sending Vargas back and forth to Rodchester like this year. Also Mauer will be in his final year of his contract and will they be willing to resign him after next year. The next option would be release Vargas but that i will think come back  and bite them he has value as desinated hitter and can fill in as first baseman. Also the Twins have log jam now at the outfield positions with Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler making for very young outfield. Do they keep Grossman or bring up some minor league players for the forth outfield position. Same thing will be SS and Second base what do they do there with Dozier, polonco, and Gordon pushing from minor leagues do they sign Dozier or trade what do with other two plus couple they have now for backup. In these decisions is make up for team chemistry and leadership for the future. Like i say this will be how this front office is judged and they have had pretty much a free pass and had added bonus of this team was alot closer to winning than most people thought so people are feeling good about this team. Actually this was season people thought this team could have had last year but fell miserably short of .

    Also comment that Bill Smith had more to do with this group is somewhat right. I also want to comment Bill Smith was released because he stated that if Twins were compete in near future they would need to add free agent signings because of lack of talent in the system. Ownership didn't want to go that way went back to Terry Ryan who had built the Twins from ground up with very little money and when they were competitive he added players by trading away some of there talent. Never did the Twins add big signee to get over hump when they were competitive when they were in the playoffs. I think this was by design at time put pressure on community to build a new stadium. If they had went out signed big free agent and won a championship there would have been not the push for the stadium.  Also i get tired of weak central division since 2006 to last year central division has been in world series 6 times in 11 years so how weak is the division.

     

    Escobar has been valuable because Sano has only started 79 games at third.

    Personally, I would rather have had Sano start 120-130 games at third. Which would have meant 40-50 fewer games for Escobar.

    Well, sure, we'd all like Sano at third more often. I don't think that's really a controversial statement.

     

    When he went down with the fluke shin injury, Miguel was on pace for about ~105 games at third. A little lower than I'd like to see but not that far off a 120 game pace.

    I really hope that's not the case, and I think it would be a mistake to let him go in favor of Adrianza.

     

    Adrianza certainly won't hit as much going forward. There are other defensive whiz-kids in the minors (Vielma, etc) that could step in, or Gordon may be ready at some point next year (doubtful, IMO, but maybe).

     

    Escobar on the other hand, has been one of the most valuable and irreplaceable players on the team this year (IMO). He can play anywhere in the field, but I think "utility guy" role gets thrown around in poor context (implicating that he's somehow deficient as a player). It's more of a strength than an indictment. He's still young, and he has carried the team at times offensively. He's also loved in the clubhouse.

     

    Hes also still fairly young.

     

    He's an easy guy to overlook, admittedly, but I think he might be the best "utility" guy out there right now (remember the days of Nick Punto?!).

    hes a good fielder at 3rd, ok at SS and 2nd and .750 OPS hitter.

     

    .750 OPS starts at SS if you're a defensive whiz. It don't start at 2nd or 3rd. He's no defensive whiz either.

     

    I maintain hes a valuable utility fielder, but no cornerstone. LNP was no core player either.

     

    Check out the similarity score on bbref.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml

     

    Number 1 is ...post-2738-0-96438300-1505438186_thumb.png

    Edited by Sconnie

     

    hes a good fielder at 3rd, ok at SS and 2nd and .750 OPS hitter.

    .750 OPS starts at SS if you're a defensive whiz. It don't start at 2nd or 3rd. He's no defensive whiz either.

    I maintain hes a valuable utility fielder, but no cornerstone. LNP was no core player either.

    Check out the similarity score on bbref.
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml

    Number 1 is ...attachicon.gifIMG_1581.PNG

     

    I think you've got some lofty expectations. The average SS OPS in 2017 sits at .737 with only pitchers and catchers posting lower numbers for full time roles. The average MLB OPS right now is .753, making Esco slightly better than a league average hitter. 

     

    .750 is a pretty good SS if the defense is average. Defensive wizards can get away with much lower hitting aptitude.

     

    I'm not sure I'd call Escobar a core player, but given competent defense and an ability to hit slightly better than baseball, Escobar is a very valuable 10th man and could be an acceptable starter for a lot of teams. Most teams don't have a player like that on their bench.

     

    I would, without question look to see if I could lock him up for a few years beyond FA if he was interested.

     

    ADALBERTO MEJIA

    Just 24-years-old, Mejia proved himself as a mid-rotation type of starter before experiencing an arm injury that cost him about a month.

    Seth, I have no idea how you came to this conclusion about a guy averaging less than 5 innings per start.  He wasn't even trending up that much -- 18.2 IP in the 4 starts preceding his injury start (in which he was also on pace to probably fall short of 5 IP).  His ERA was nice in recent stretches, but it wasn't really supported by his components (which also ties into why he wasn't pitching many innings, too many hits and walks even when he wasn't allowing many runs).

     

    Not picking on him at all, I'm glad to get Mejia back and he should be a useful guy now and going forward, but I don't see how you can say he has "proved himself as a mid-rotation type of starter" already, or put him as part of a franchise core 7.

    Seth –

     

    Good story.

     

    I would prefer Hildenberger over Mejia. Granted, not a starter, but has been a very valuable reliever.

     

    My prediction is, if the Twins do not sign a "closer" this winter, he'll be it next spring.

     

    BTW – Twins Daily needs to update its Twins roster and salaries. Several current Twins are not even listed.

     

    Thanks

    Mejia getting hurt and not finishing off hitters are the red flags for me. Still he's a rookie, was a steal acquisition and I predict he is a rotation fixture going forward, so I'm with his inclusion.

    The previous front office's share of the credit for this resurgence? With all those high draft picks due to sustained poor performance even a blind squirrel... Yes they stumbled upon some talent but didn't appear to be able to develop it.

     

    Would you accept hot dogs from Target Field as proper compensation for your work? If so, you're hired! 

    I probably would.  I'm actually in Colombia learning spanish specifically to get into baseball somehow.  Let me know if you want to talk more.  Will be home in December.

     

    I probably would.  I'm actually in Colombia learning spanish specifically to get into baseball somehow.  Let me know if you want to talk more.  Will be home in December.

     

    Full disclosure: I have zero connections to the Minnesota Twins.

     

    Good luck in your pursuit to get into baseball! 

    I like Mejia, but I also feel it's premature to include him in the core. I hope a rookie starting pitcher does well every other game or so, and Mejia has done quite a bit better than that. His debut season was better than Gibson, May, Meyer, and Berrios. Only Duffey performed better. I'm leaning toward having Mejia and Gonsalves fight it out for the 5th spot, and the loser being first man up.

    I probably would.  I'm actually in Colombia learning spanish specifically to get into baseball somehow.  Let me know if you want to talk more.  Will be home in December.

    Colombian Spanish is too easy! I kid, but there is a distinct Caribbean accent that you'd likely have to deal with in baseball. Personally I hear an enormous difference between when I'm in Mexico or Colombia, and when I'm in Panama. The islands are supposed to even more mashed. Maybe start practicing Spanish with like three or four marbles in your mouth. See what it sounds like.

    Well, the outfield is set for a few years until a new crop comes along. You have to be happy that Sano will be somewhere. 2B/SS seem set for now, so we have to worry about the corners (unless Mauer is extended) and who is the DH if Sano stays in the field. I was hoping to get more of a look at Garver behind-the-plate as he seems to be it for the future after 2019.

     

    I guess we should be happy that Santana is still around and that Gibson ahs found his way to throw. I don't have a lot of long-term future stock in Mejia, not even short-term. But can't name for sure who will be on the 2020 rotation staff yet.

     

    Like ALL those relief pitchers of old, we have yet to classify where any of these guys will perform best in the bullpen. Who is setup, is there a longman, who can close someday

     

    Escobar has proven to be a surprise that I would almost write him at third next year with Sano as DH.

     

    But the number of players the Twins have to start protecting on the 40-man this season and next will make for some interesting watch. You can add them and protect them, but does no good if they don't play and some others have to take their spots and you lose them when sending them off-40-man waivers.

     

    Colombian Spanish is too easy! I kid, but there is a distinct Caribbean accent that you'd likely have to deal with in baseball. Personally I hear an enormous difference between when I'm in Mexico or Colombia, and when I'm in Panama. The islands are supposed to even more mashed. Maybe start practicing Spanish with like three or four marbles in your mouth. See what it sounds like.

    Ha!  Yes, i have heard that.  But I'm on the coast where the it's also pretty mushed up and full of slang.   Good call on the marbles.  I had someone here tell me to speak by biting down on a finger.




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