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It’s logical to assume that Polanco would become the Twins new utilityman - replacing Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza - should the team decide to make a move on a shortstop rather than sign someone in the ilk of Kike Hernandez, who has developed into one of the league’s premier Swiss Army knives.
But would that be a decision that ends up being fruitful for winning baseball?
When healthy - something he has struggled with since the latter part of the 2019 season, which has resulted in two ankle surgeries - Polanco is an above average offensive shortstop. He’s produced 179 extra base hits across 1,891 career at bats, good for a slugging percentage of .435, which places him 16th among shortstops since he entered the lineup full-time in 2017. Offense is not Polanco’s downfall; his defense, however, is another story.
Polanco has completed 1,173 fielding attempts across 496 games in his career, 980 of which came at the shortstop position. His relatively poor arm strength and range have led him to accumulate -26 career outs above average according to Baseball Savant.
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While he has found a greater degree of success at second (+2 OAA; -0.1 UZR) and third (-3 OAA; -1.8 UZR), his overall sample size is too small to even begin to draw conclusions based on data alone. Additionally, he has never appeared at first base or in the outfield. (For reference, Hernandez has appeared at every position except for catcher and pitcher.)
Polanco’s defensive skillset and attributes are arguably better suited for second and even third base - less range and arm strength is required for both positions - but his lack of experience in the outfield may be cause for a slight amount of pause. (Admittedly, the presence of the likes of Alex Kiriloff, Brent Rooker, Jake Cave, and LaMonte Wade Jr. - not to mention Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis who are waiting in the wings - dampens some of the need for Polanco to appear in the outfield.)
What it comes down to is this: Would bringing in a shortstop of a greater caliber than Polanco place the Twins in a better position to win more games than bringing in a super utilityman? From a purely statistical standpoint it would be difficult to argue otherwise, even with Polanco’s defensive shortcomings - potential and actualized - across the infield.
Semien would be a significant - albeit still below average - upgrade over Polanco defensively while also being a solid upgrade offensively; his OPS is .002 points higher than Polanco’s since 2017 and he has hit 20 more home runs in 41 more games.
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On the other hand, most of Hernandez’s value would come defensively; he’s average to above average at virtually every position, though he is strongest in the outfield according to UZR. Hernandez boasts a career slugging percentage of .425 and 71 home runs in 690 games.
But let’s be real, signing either of Semien or Hernandez would provide the Twins with an embarrassment of riches, particularly offensively. The only way the Twins lose in their current situation is if they do not make a move at all, an outcome that is highly unlikely.
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