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    Orioles 2, Twins 1: Same Old Offense Dooms the Twins' Chance for Sweep


    Steven Trefz

    The Twins pitching staff held the Orioles to two runs on a day when they needed another shutout. The Orioles pecked and pecked away at Jhoan Duran in the eighth, and salvaged the last game of the series for their 29th comeback win of the season. Here's how the exercise in futility went down today.

    Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score:
    Starting pitcher: Sonny Gray: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 SO ( 87 pitches, 55 for strikes, 63%)
    Home Runs: None
    Bottom 3 WPS: Jhoan Duran (-.584), Jose Miranda (-.113), Joey Gallo (-.096)
    Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

    image.png.257c6d12171b54ede76b0712db96f472.png

     

     

    The Twins were 2-0 since their meeting to reset the season Wednesday late afternoon. Sonny Gray entered the game to regain his early season length and results. This Sunday afternoon game wasn't even on TV, leading to scrambling for those seeking to view the potential sweep. Those who missed the action missed a nail-biter, but ultimately a game worth missing for Twins fans. Missed opportunities and bad luck on offense, mixed with dominant pitching and a terrible inning from one of our most trustworthy relievers on defense, equals a 2-1 loss.

    Sonny Skies in Baltimore, After All
    Gray started the game dealing, survived the middle innings by trusting in his best pitches despite the situation, and finished strong. The threats were few and far between through the first five innings for the Orioles' offense, as Gray kept the pitch count down to 66 while scattering two hits, two walks, and a plunked toe. 

    Jose Miranda Returns, and Austin Hays Pays the Price
    Miranda's return from his AAA banishment started as it ended, flying out and grounding into a double play to squash the start of the threat in the fourth inning. His defense was just as offensive, helping the Twins potentially but not in the way anyone intends to. 

    League batting leader Austin Hays led off the bottom of the second inning and hit a slow roller to Miranda at third. Miranda made the play, but the throw led Solano off the bag and into a collision with Hays. The impact eventually knocked Hays out of the game and could have also taken out Solano. Due to the lack of TV replays, feel free to recreate the horrible play with pen and paper.

    Willi Castro Continues to Make Himself Indespensible
    Castro plays all positions, hits righties and lefties, steals bases, scores runs, and shows up with a blast when you least expect him to. After Byron Buxton singled in the top of the sixth with one out, Castro found himself up with Buxton on second and two outs, and he hit a ball so far that only the revamped Camden Yards could contain it. Here's how it looked and sounded in Spanish!

     

     

    Skies Get Less Sonny in the Sixth
    The Twins had been hitting laser beams all game, with consistent 100+ mph exit velocities and very few hits, let alone runs, to show for it. Again, like Saturday's game, the early innings "felt" like the Twins had accomplished improvement and should have been ahead by many runs. They scored one run over five innings against LHP Cole Irvin, who brought a 6.32 ERA and 1.69 WHIP into the game.

    This lack of production became even more apparent in the bottom of the sixth when Cedric Mullins sat on a 3-2 fastball from Gray and parked it onto Eutaw Street. Luckily for Gray and my blood pressure, it was a few feet foul, and Ryan Jeffers convinced home plate umpire Mike Estabrook that the next pitch was not three inches outside for Gray's seventh and final strikeout of the night. The extra work in the fifth and sixth innings sealed his fate, and the game was officially left in the hands of the teams' bullpens to finish it out.

    Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran are Beasts...but One was Human Today
    Jax stepped to the mound in the seventh inning, and 14 pitches later, the Twins were jogging back in from the field. Duran was given the nod in the eighth inning with the top of the Orioles lineup due up. The dominant Duran faced long at-bats. A swinging bunt from Adley Rutschman, and a single from Anthony Santander put runners on the corners with only one out. 

    Aaron Hicks came to the plate, looking to play spoiler after replacing Hays earlier in the game. And spoil it he did, as the ex-Twin drove a game-tying single into center field. One Alex Kirilloff saved the game at first base as he dove towards the line and speared Mullin's attempt at a two-run double. 

    The game was then lost when Duran lost Ryan O'Hearn to a four-pitch walk and plugged Jordan Westburg with a 101 mph fastball on an 0-1 count to send Anthony Santander home to put the O's up 2-1. Just like that, a sure thing turned into another reminder of how one run won't win you many baseball games, and a brilliant day by the Twins pitching staff went unrewarded. The Orioles 29th come-from-behind win of the season showed their resolve this season, exposing the Twins' approach as well.

    What Version of the Twins Returns to Target Field Monday?
    The Twins started the weekend with inspired play and joyful offense. After their live-by-the-homer, die-without-the-homer strategy emerged again, they finished it with more questions than answers. The Orioles scored three runs all weekend, and the Twins are lucky to leave town with two victories. That fact says all you need to know about the state of the Twins heading into their last homestand before the All-Star Break.

    What's Next: Twins RHP Joe Ryan (8-5, 3.44 ERA) tries to rebound from his home run disaster fest against the Braves last week. He will face the Royals, sporting a bottom-five offense across all major categories. As of Sunday afternoon, the Royals have yet to announce who their starting pitcher will be. First Pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 7:10pm.

    Postgame Interviews:

    Bullpen Usage Chart:

     

      WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT
    Morán 36 0 8 0 0 44
    Durán 0 0 0 8 34 42
    Balazovic 18 0 9 0 0 27
    Pagán 0 0 19 0 6 25
    Jax 0 0 0 11 14 25
    Headrick 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Ortega 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Winder 0 0 0 0 0 0

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    38 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    How to stay positive  , it's a question  I often  ask myself  ...

    It's just impossible to stay positive as we are once again 1 game below 500  ... 

    I will never get my ten game twins winning streak and will have to watch other contending teams get their 10 game winning streak  ...

    This was once again a winnable game but they just don't come up with the clutch hit , the past 3  seasons have not been kind to the twins having clutch hits and I don't see that changing  , nor have I  seen really much change the past 3 games as the first 81 before the players only meeting  ...

    A wasted pitching performance from Sonny Gray  , wasted opportunities to score runs  , better contact today as they only struck out 6 times and 4 or 5 of those strikeouts came after the seventh inning , 3 strikeouts in the top of the ninth  , 2 by pinch hitters  ....

    I expect the twins to have a winning homestand  before the Allstar game , and if the players haven't fixed it with their players meeting on hitting  , than it's time for changes to roster and coaching and then be sellers at deadline  ...

    This is just not acceptable twins baseball  and if you listen to Rocco  pre game or post games chats and believe anything Rocco says.  Then I congratulate  you because it is a bunch of crock ....

    Has anyone seen or heard anything from the FO  , or are they keeping quite and in hiding ...

    Echoes my sentiments almost to a T.

    Are you really a closer if you’re not finishing the game? I find it hard to believe Duran was going 2 innings after pitching yesterday.

    You see this all the time… elite closers struggling in non-save situations.    If the plan was to have someone else pitch the ninth.

    Much like the rotating lineup and batting order the manager loves to roll out, Duran should be used exclusively in save situations… I would bet he closes it out in the ninth if pitching with the lead yet.

    Quite frankly this is all irrelevant with this putrid offense. Until there is some serious changes to the lineup this pattern probably plays out all season. 

    For those who didn't see the game today, I had the good fortune to give a 1st hand account as I was at Camden Yards today with a tour group (Jay Buckley Tours out of LaCrosse, WI) of around 40, which included a good number of Twins fans.

    This game, as most would agree, was a microcosm of the Twins "Ground Hog" 2023 season:

    1.  Get a very good/excellent performance from our SP. 

    Gray looked very good today.  I was most impressed by him keeping his pitch count down this afternoon.  I think he got through innings 1-4 with only 49 pitches.  His pitch count climbed over his last two innings on a very warm and humid day in Baltimore.  Got to give him a lot of credit.  He battled all day long and deserved better.

    2.  Fail to deliver in key spots with RISP

    Jeffers whiff with bases loaded seemed to give Cole Irvin (and his 7.18 ERA) confidence.

    3.  Continued failure to make adjustments hitting throughout the lineup.

    I personally counted 8 lazy fly balls or pop ups against Irvin over the first 5 innings.  

    Other than those things, I was encouraged by the ABs (early in the game) from Buxton & Correa.

    In first inning, Buxton absolutely crushed a bomb to right center field at least 375ft plus that Mullins made an amazing catch against the wall.  That ball drops,  Solano would've scored from first base. Buxton walked in his 2nd AB and lined a clean single to LF in the 5th.  

    Correa started game with a hard hit single to LF than hit an absolute roped line drive to Hicks in the top f of the 2nd.

    Understood Baldell's decision to go with Duran in the 8th.  Got unlucky when Rutschman's dribbler--hit maybe 30 feet up first base line (with an exit velo of 25mph) resulted in an infield hit. Santander followed with the key AB of the game.  After getting behind 1-2 in his AB, Santander worked the count to 3-2 then fouled off two pitches before lining a single to CF on the 9th pitch of his AB.

    Now sitting at 21 pitches in the 8th with only 1 out, Aaron ^#$# Hicks came back to haunt Twins again with a softly hit single--again with two strikes to tie the game.  

    If not for a great stop by Kirilloff on a rocket off the bat of Mullins---the Orioles would've taken the lead. As we all know now Duran was human and forced in the go ahead run on his HB.

    Witnessing this loss IN PERSON was no worse than the countless other games that have gone a similar route.  Seriously pleased though I dont have to see another exhibition of this putrid offense for the remainder of our trip.  Onto New York tomorrow night followed by a July 4th afternoon tilt at Fenway then a full afternoon at Cooperstown on Wednesday.  Have that to look forward to, but also hoping Twins can somehow find a way to win upcoming series vs. KC.

     

     

     

    59 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

    Got unlucky when Rutschman's dribbler--hit maybe 30 feet up first base line (with an exit velo of 25mph) resulted in an infield hit.

    To me, that was not unlucky, it was incompetent defense from the pitcher. You don't need to be Greg Maddux or Jim Kaat to make that an out.

    7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    What outfield depth? They're starting three guys that need replacing, none of which are under contract next year. 

    They don't need a starter. 

    They aren't close to contending, no way they should be buying. 

    Look at main roster they got gallo,kirllioff,kelper,castro,Buxton and Taylor. Gallo and Kirllioff are listed as 1B/OF and Buxton is listed as DH/OF and look at what they have in the minors Larnach,garlick,celestino,Contreras wallner behind them got rodriguez Garry jr and Rosario in cedar rapids Keirsey in double A OUTFIELD  DEPTH in organization 

    5 hours ago, hitterscount said:

    Are you really a closer if you’re not finishing the game? I find it hard to believe Duran was going 2 innings after pitching yesterday.

    You see this all the time… elite closers struggling in non-save situations.    If the plan was to have someone else pitch the ninth.

    Much like the rotating lineup and batting order the manager loves to roll out, Duran should be used exclusively in save situations… I would bet he closes it out in the ninth if pitching with the lead yet.

    Quite frankly this is all irrelevant with this putrid offense. Until there is some serious changes to the lineup this pattern probably plays out all season. 

    The term and position of "closer" is outdated.  Duran is the Twins best relief arm and it's not even debatable.  Him being called upon to get the bats out in the lineup in late game situations SHOULD be his go to.  What's the advantage of using him in "exclusively in save situations?"  You should want your best arm facing the top and heart of the opponents order, that's who your biggest threat is, especially late in games.   Letting a "closer" just pitch the ninth of a game to close a game is underutilizing your best arm.  Saves are a sexy statistic, but not a practical one.  

    14 hours ago, pierre75275 said:

    Twins hit a lot of rockets in the series that didn't land in the grass, especially Buxton. 

    With all the left-handers coming up for the O's in the 8th surprised the Moran didn't get a chance to at least get some outs before Duran was brought in, it stinks because now he isn't available Monday for sure, altho sometimes when you bring the stud of the bullpen in it just doesn't work out.

    Missing Brock Stewart hurt today.

    Yeah, it was brutal seeing Buxton robbed of another extra-base hit again today. Great fielding by the Orioles outfielders, just a shame that Buck was the victim two days in a row. But hey, the silver lining it that he is hitting the ball hard again and not just whiffing every time up. 

    5 hours ago, SwainZag said:

    The term and position of "closer" is outdated.  Duran is the Twins best relief arm and it's not even debatable.  Him being called upon to get the bats out in the lineup in late game situations SHOULD be his go to.  What's the advantage of using him in "exclusively in save situations?"  You should want your best arm facing the top and heart of the opponents order, that's who your biggest threat is, especially late in games.   Letting a "closer" just pitch the ninth of a game to close a game is underutilizing your best arm.  Saves are a sexy statistic, but not a practical one.  

    I would agree if this were a critical/big win game…. a playoff game, etc, It’s not. People in general like to know their role and expectations,,  being moved around at a whim, IMO, brings uncertainty. The constant lineup changes reversal in roles on a day to day basis is unsettling and counterproductive. I would also disagree about the closer assessment, the best relievers on the better teams finish games. 

    6 hours ago, SwainZag said:

    The term and position of "closer" is outdated.  Duran is the Twins best relief arm and it's not even debatable.  Him being called upon to get the bats out in the lineup in late game situations SHOULD be his go to.  What's the advantage of using him in "exclusively in save situations?"  You should want your best arm facing the top and heart of the opponents order, that's who your biggest threat is, especially late in games.   Letting a "closer" just pitch the ninth of a game to close a game is underutilizing your best arm.  Saves are a sexy statistic, but not a practical one.  

    Only here on TD is the term "closer" outdated.  As many relievers have stated over the years there is a mind set to finishing out the 9th inning, it is more than just who you are pitching too.  Duran has that mindset, maybe Jax to a certain degree.  But you can't just throw anyone out there in a save situation.  If you ever watched Ron Davis try to save games, you know what I am talking about.  He was a lights out set up man but just didn't have the closer mentality.  This is Rocco's biggest weakness, the game is not played on spreadsheets, it is played on the field. 

    17 hours ago, RpR said:

    Yeah he is the reason they lost again -- good grief.

    Hopefully Miranda is not around long.

     

     

     

    1

    With the offensive stats spread between Miranda & Wallner in St. Paul, I really thought that they would live with Farmer/Castro/Julien/Solano to cover 3B & 2B and let Wallner get maybe 3 starts between now & the break. Couple starts at DH & 1 in RF.

    With Kepler & Gallo contributing once or twice per week, I don’t see either of them going anywhere. Unfortunately! Surely seems like Wallner should get an opportunity, particularly with the consistently blah results we are getting across the river.

    Duran is an excellent relief pitcher that has shown a history of significant regression when he is asked to pitch two days in a row.  He only threw 8 pitches on Saturday so its reasonable to letnhim pitch the next day.  It didnt work out.  It happens.  I think the bigger issue with Duran now is that he threw 34 pitches on Sunday meaning he probably won't be able to pitch until Wednesday.  Granted we are only playing the Royals but they just took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers and have the same record over the past 10 days as the Twins.  Just saying.   Go twins!!!

    How is it that this team can't hit LP pitcher with a ERA north of 7. Another good game pitched by Gray wasted. Loaded the lineup with right handed bat for what. This loss should be on the manager. Leaving Duran in after Mullins smash down the line. How often has Duran thrown 34 pitches in one inning 0. I don't think we will see anything different Monday night with a LP going for KC and they are playing well the last few games.

     

    1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

    Duran is an excellent relief pitcher that has shown a history of significant regression when he is asked to pitch two days in a row.  

    I'm not sure we have enough evidence to be sure on this one: Duran has only pitched in 10 games total on 0 days rest. It's worth watching to see if he can't consistently be effective on back-to-back days, but I'd rather not write him off on that after 10 games.

    Twins had a lot of hard-hit balls go right at people yesterday, which sucked. They had a lot of balls die on the warning track which also sucked. Bad hitting or bad luck? they certainly were putting the ball in play plenty yesterday (only 6 Ks). 

    Bit of an odd series that's sort of emblematic of the Twins season: they outscored the O's 10-3 for the series, but only won 2 of 3. they're underperforming their run differential for the season by 4 games right now, and I feel like if they were just even on that one people would feel better about the team.

    Still and all, while I'm disappointed they didn't sweep after getting another excellent start, winning a road series is always good especially against a team that's been very good this year.

    Now, about Miranda and that double play... (I felt like I saw that one coming as soon as he stepped to the plate. Argh.)

    I will say, I generally enjoyed the Peacock broadcast? The Apple TV ones have good production values and very sharp graphics, along with advanced stats and so forth. but the broadcast team has done nothing for me. I liked the Peacock formula quite a bit where they had Ben McDonald (who has plenty of experience with the O's) and Glen Perkins (who I like quite a bit on the Twins broadcasts) doing the analysis. It was like getting a little flavor from a road broadcast without too much homerism. Part of the problem with the Apple TV broadcasts was it seemed like the broadcast team didn't have a lot of depth with either team so a lot of the comments were very superficial, and Dontrelle did a fair amount of the "in my day..." stuff that gets old fast.

    Kinda liked the peacock broadcast crew and wouldn't mind a setup like that again.

    15 hours ago, Brandon27 said:

    Look at main roster they got gallo,kirllioff,kelper,castro,Buxton and Taylor. Gallo and Kirllioff are listed as 1B/OF and Buxton is listed as DH/OF and look at what they have in the minors Larnach,garlick,celestino,Contreras wallner behind them got rodriguez Garry jr and Rosario in cedar rapids Keirsey in double A OUTFIELD  DEPTH in organization 

    Gallo and Kepler should maybe be backups, or DFA'd. Just because they are on the roster doesn't mean they should be. Taylor 100% should be a backup. Castro? Utilty backup. Buxton clearly can't play the OF right now. I mean, I don't know how anyone can argue those are starters and they have lots of depth. They have a lot of players, but that doesn't mean they have good players......And no, no one is trading for Gallo or Kepler or taylor, not more than a PTBNL or cash considerations. Contreras isn't a MLB player. 

    Didn't read all the comments, so my apologies if repeating what was already mentioned.

    I expected a big inning the way the pitches were being clubbed. Many hard hit balls only to turned into outs. Hardly any strikeouts. Yet, by the sixth inning it still wasn't happening. 

    The way the contact was today, by just about everyone, scoring only one run was a surprise.

    Sonny Grey deserved a win.  This time I blame the baseball gods. The lineup finally made some contact, but to no avail.




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