Having Survived Career-Threatening Injury, Could Josh Staumont Embrace the Deathball?

A former second-round pick by the Kansas City Royals back in 2015, Josh Staumont has spent the entirety of his career within the same organization. Rather than go through the arbitration process with him a second time, the Royals decided to non-tender Staumont in November, largely because it's not clear when he'll be ready to pitch again.

Staumont underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, and while that has been a death knell for some pitchers, the diagnosis is almost an umbrella term for two different ones. As outlined in a piece by Jesse Dougherty at the Washington Post, a couple of different procedures can produce vastly different results. Rather than thinking he’s the next Stephen Strasburg or Matt Harvey, Staumont’s outlook could be something closer to Merrill Kelly.

In a recent conversation with KSTP’s Darren Wolfson, Staumont discussed his surgery and the process in depth. Beyond that, he mentioned how he’s doing with the rehab process and how good he feels about his health going forward.

Had an enjoyable conversation today getting to know new #MNTwins reliever Josh Staumont. I'll post the full 30 minutes later, but here's a snippet on the thoracic outlet syndrome surgery he underwent last summer. He's doing great now. pic.twitter.com/bTXP3ld8eG

— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) January 24, 2024

That’s where the exciting news begins for the Twins.

Staumont posted a 6.09 ERA over the past two seasons, with a 4.08 FIP. His 25.3% strikeout rate was impressive, but the 15.9% walk rate did him in. He is a guy who doesn’t give up many home runs, but his control and command had all but disappeared. The aforementioned Kelly posted a 4.42 ERA with a 4.51 FIP in his rookie season, before undergoing vascular TOS surgery after five starts in 2020. In the three years since, Kelly has been a consistent force for the Arizona Diamondbacks, posting a 3.66 ERA and 3.85 FIP, including higher strikeout and lower home run rates.

Staumont is a bit younger than Kelly was when he had surgery, but it’s the previous performance that Minnesota is looking to return. If a clean bill of health gets him back to where he was, that is production to the tune of a 2.93 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and striking out over a quarter of opposing batters. Even before his numbers dipped, the former Royals reliever struggled a bit with walks, but the peripherals all worked as a dominant, high-leverage arm.

Last season was the first time Staumont averaged less than 96 mph on his fastball, and it was the second straight year of decline. He had popped up to 98 mph on his fastball in 2020, and 99 mph on his sinker. Talking with Staumont at length on Friday evening during TwinsFest Live, he expressed excitement about where he is at in rehabbing the injury, and why he believes in his success going forward. Having had nerves and muscle fibers that were previously interrupted with their positioning inside of his body, he feels more free throwing than ever. Despite not having surgery until the middle of last season, he suggested having had to pitch with a different feel for a while--a common refrain from pitchers who deal with TOS. That part excites him, as he sees a blueprint where he can get batters out using both an old and a new arm slot.

Recently, Brian Menéndez of Baseball Prospectus wrote about a new pitch dubbed the "deathball." While the sweeper took over the scene in 2023, it does require a lower arm slot, and Minnesota may have interest in working with the high-slot Staumont on a different pitch. The article describes the deathball as "different from a traditional curveball in that it is thrown with less emphasis on efficient topspin, though the emphasis on vertical movement remains." Jordan Montgomery is the biggest-name pitcher to highlight this offering, and while it does have action that can relate to a traditional 12-6 curveball, Menéndez noted a few key differences being a gyro component and higher velocity.

New Minnesota teammates Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Durán threw a deathball last season, and the pitch isn't something new for the Twins staff. As an organization that has had success elevating pitchers to new heights, taking a healthy version of Staumont and augmenting a key weapon for him (in this case, his slider, which is the pitch that could morph into a deathball by keeping it a little closer to 12-to-6 in shape, and which he already started throwing more often last year) could have a significant amount of value. Durán having that offering with a nearly-unhittable fastball and splinker is an unfair arsenal. Staumont's could see a velocity resurgence after going under the knife, but Minnesota may also just be interested in adding to his repertoire.

The former Royals reliever told me how excited he was to have a shot at free agency, and was somewhat surprised at the amount of interest he received. Being able to pick from multiple offers from teams with World Series aspirations was rejuvenating, coming from an organization that had lost for so long, and Minnesota was a place he immediately was drawn to. What those discussions revolved around, beyond just dollars, was likely a key factor in him making this his home for 2024. We'll see if another pitch is added when spring training rolls around, but for now, there is plenty of upside for the lone Twins free agent acquisition.

At this point, Rocco Baldelli doesn’t need a closer or setup man. With Durán, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar all penciled in as back-end arms, any additions only add to the group's depth. Last year, the Twins added Brock Stewart as a non-roster minor leaguer, and he worked his way into that mix. Staumont figures to slide in below each of those names on the bullpen depth chart, but he's very much on it.

It’s easy to overlook a relief addition as something that provides little splash. Minnesota hasn’t spent on the bullpen outside of Addison Reed (which went poorly) under this front office, and it’s been the upside plays they have hit on most. If Staumont is truly feeling good, and we’ll see that in action soon enough, he could be among the most impactful additions of the offseason.

Could Staumont take off with a slight adjustment or two? Where would you slot him into the lower rungs of the team's relief ladder? Sound off below.