What the Twins See in Josh Staumont, and How He Fits Their Bullpen Philosophy

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Staumont had a successful 2020-2021, built on a BABIP of .261 across the two years.  When that ability to make batters hit the ball right at fielders went away, so did his success.

Oh, and there was that unpleasantness about neck soreness and thoracic outlet, too.

This signing is portrayed as low-risk high-reward, and I don't really see the latter, just "a guy."  And the risk is from taking up one of the team's 40-man spots.  Apparently they see no better use for that scarce resource at this time.  Even lowly KC had a better use for a spot on theirs.

There are only 1200 spots in the majors, and somehow Josh Staumont has one, rather than a minor league commitment.

Agree with this. But, should they need his 40 man spot in lets say a month he can just be dfa'd right? Meaning if another club picks him up at that time we'd just be out a couple hundred K.

Back to another Caretaker article that doesn't give you the full article.  I will continue to post if you want the caretaker articles put them in the caretaker section.   Muddles up for your regular posters.     Posted as a main article at the top of the web page.  In 2 separate spots.  One that says caretakers but isn't clear,  the other, the one that I clicked on that had no forewarning of a caretakers article.   

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, going to the team page and counting 40-man spots was not a greatly encouraging activity. Not being willing/able to add outside talent to your 40-man without removing talent already on it is not a great offseason situation when you have open 40-man spots. 

I didn't know he had an option left, but that is a nice adder to the situation. Still not excited at all by the signing, but I'd bet that's a reason this FO was willing to sign him to a major league deal and not feel as strong a need to wait until spring to try to sign him to a minor league deal. 

A little off topic, but this entire offseason has me really wishing MLB would take a new look at their offseason schedule. Move your draft to the offseason and put some free agency dates to actually force decisions and moves and give your fans something to get excited about instead of just having a 4 month dead period with random periodic moves. It's nearly January and the only move Twins fans have seen is Josh Staumont. Follow the NFL and NBA leads and put in a deadline and force some action.

Staumont has upside.   I think the Twins feel comfortable with having 39 spots and opening another up if they intend to move him to the injured list for the year.   

Where is the upside - without reading the article is finding the velocity again which is not a guarantee, and continue working on the slider and or sweeper.   It seems hitters were able to tell when the curveball was coming by not having a similar tunnel, the other is he was having difficulty keeping it in the zone.  So the issue became the curve was no longer a weapon as teams knew to lay off the pitch.  This raised his walks.     

The other oddity is he extremely struggled in Kauffman stadium.   You are outside of SSS area on that one, so it becomes were the dimensions of Kauffman hurting him and why, and if so,  why didn't the defense shift to where a majority of the hits were made.  

So yes if the velocity comes back and a sweeper/slider,  is able to keep hitters back on their toes,  there is the possibility that he reverts back to his dominant self.  I know there were some oddities with his early stats,  but talking with a couple royal fans,  they feel he really lost something after getting Covid.   He had significant weightloss.  I am curious if he begins to regain some of that weight back as he gets further away from the Illness.  Could have a situation between continued regular health improvement, healing the shoulder,  removing self from Kauffman (including increasing confidence) and lastly  a sweeper that makes his entire arsenal much more effective,  you have a very suitable set up man for a cool 1 million dollars.  This may not manifest this year.  There is a very real possibility we continue to rehab and work with him and he is almost like a deadline addition without having to trade for one.  Otherwise its a stash for next year.  

If their bullpen philosophy is to bring in guys that are part of the dumpster diving variety then yes, he fits perfectly. The bullpen has always been low priority for this FO and the signing of Staumont proves they haven't changed their tune. 

5 minutes ago, rv78 said:

If their bullpen philosophy is to bring in guys that are part of the dumpster diving variety then yes, he fits perfectly. The bullpen has always been low priority for this FO and the signing of Staumont proves they haven't changed their tune. 

Not spending money on Relief pitchers and being very selective with pitching contracts is obviously the primary method to the Front Office philosophy.   A 538-494 record is quite the accomplishment since 2017.  It has been a gradual process of stealing from the minors to supplement the majors team success (affectively trading away the entirety of the 2021 draft class)  but grabbing pitchers like Paddack and Staumont have been successful for the Twins.  They have hit on more of the injured players recovering than retread starting pitchers that are significantly past their prime.  

This is the most balanced between the minors and majors I think I have seen since I have been an adult fan.  You have a healthy amount of high quality arms in the minors and we have an ace in Pablo which I don't feel we have had since Santana.  We have a nice 4 year window to do something special and/or find another ace for Pablo to hand off the baton too.  You have some high quality bats with not only immense ceilings but competitive quality players in the minors.  I like the winning attitude they are creating.  The last 2 years all levels of the minors have been competitive in their divisions and this looks to continue.  Under the radar bats are plentiful and waiting for an opportunity to see if they can succeed.    

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

He's performed at a high level in major league baseball, so of course there's upside to him. But if the keys to him hitting that upside are to come back from TOS surgery and recover elite velo while adding a whole new out pitch to compliment it his chances of reaching that upside are very, very low.

It's a very low risk signing and I don't mind it at all. But it's most certainly not an exciting one. You basically just described every professional pitcher. If they can find elite velo, a wipe out pitch, and control they'll be really good. He's 30 years old and multiple seasons, and shoulder surgery, removed from being an effective major leaguer so I'm not really interested in him being a stash for 2025.

It's a flier signing that every team does every offseason. I'm not mad at it, and don't think it's a bad signing. But it shouldn't be seen as anything more than that, and better not be a deal they are counting on providing significant returns at any point.

Ehh . .   The odds are not high but I would say the Twins are thinking better than 40% chance they are able to achieve this.  They know a couple things we don't,  the first being which procedure he had.  Up to this point that is not public knowledge.  The second is they were likely given information on his rehab, pitching progress,  current velocity if already pitching,  potential progress on sweeper slider if working on one   and assessing his buy in on trying to change his repertoire.   

As to velocity,  he still averaged 95.6 with what has been described as a sore shoulder he was trying to pitch through last year.  If the surgery was successful, which I am going to presume was and he was already topping out at 97 to 98 last year,  I think its fairly easy to assume the velocity will be close to what it was before.  Paddack throwing a pitch harder than he ever has gives me decent confidence in the velocity department with the pitching staff philosophies.  

So yes your mantra speaks to every pitcher.  However it appears we improved Gray, Lopez, Ryan and potentially Paddack better than their previous teams had.  I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on a flier like Staumont.   Sadly a Hader is not in the equation,  so a flier like Staumont is likely our best option to find another quality reliever.   You need to state the alternative before knocking down Staumont in my opinion.  

What makes the Rays better than every other team?  Their hit rate on fliers like Staumont is so much higher than everyone else.  What they generally do better than most teams due to their extremely low payroll is to not get caught with their pants down on a long term contract gone bad,  cough cough (Wander Franco).   Its not sexy but I very much like the potential and willing to be patient to see what the Twins are able to do with him.    

Expecting a sexy pickup this year in free agency is a slim to none proposition.  The only player with a possibility would be Rhys Hoskins and I don't think that is a high possibility.  

we have seen the Twins find gems for their pen this way too many times now not to be upset at a move like this.  if you are not expecting this type of move by now you are out of touch with reality.  What I wonder is if the Twins are now happy with their bullpen depth or will they sign one more player to take a chance on?

9 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

I find it odd that there are so many comments by non-Caretakers in these Caretaker articles.

ehhh,  throw it in the general public forum and you will get general public responses.  Refer to my first post in this thread.   

Even with out seeing the rest of the information still seems non care takers can have a genuine take on the signing or the other posts in the thread.  If not then again put it in only the Caretaker forum that can only be read or responded to by caretakers.  

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

Staumont had a successful 2020-2021, built on a BABIP of .261 across the two years.  When that ability to make batters hit the ball right at fielders went away, so did his success.

Oh, and in fairness there was that unpleasantness about neck soreness and thoracic outlet, too.

This signing is portrayed as low-risk high-reward, and I don't really see the latter, just "a guy."  And the risk is from taking up one of the team's 40-man spots.  Apparently they see no better use for that scarce resource at this time.  Even lowly KC had a better use for a spot on theirs.

There are only 1200 spots in the majors, and somehow Josh Staumont has one, rather than a minor league commitment.

I believe that he is a  good low risk high reward type of option. The Twins have several open spots on the 40 man roster that they can use.  In addition, if you look he is still optionable to the minors for the next year if things are not working out or it becomes a situation where someone might have to be sent down.  

Taking a low cost flyer on Staumont makes some sense, given their reluctance to spend right now. Pitchers can regain effectiveness with tweaking their delivery or learning a new pitch. Staumont’s control problems are an issue, as free passes are a killer for relievers.

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Move your draft to the offseason

Why would the MLB teams want to give up a summer of development time? Where would the potential draft picks (some who have graduated) play from July to October? Forget ever having a high school player drafted again, they would have already played fall ball in the NCAA. Same for JUCO players. That idea is lose-lose.

I am in favor of a forced dead period for transactions between the end of the winter meetings in mid-December and New Year's Day. Let everyone take 2 weeks off and start again in the new year.