Jorge Polanco’s Twins Tenure is Approaching an End

6 minutes ago, RpR said:

With out Castro and Taylor's running and fielding the Twins would not be as far in front of Cleveland as they are.

Pie-in-the-Sky rookies more often than not turn out to be Moose Turd Pie.

I guess I take a more nuanced view of rookies. Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are #! abSo Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are #1 and #5 overall draft selections. Now, if I was suggesting replacing Taylor with Celestino and Taylor with Helman? Then maybe you'd be on to something regarding a 100 loss season, although even THAT change may not result in the disaster you envision, my friend. I mean Castro's 1.8 WAR and Taylor's 1.4 WAR ain't needle-changers.

13 hours ago, RpR said:

With out Castro and Taylor's running and fielding the Twins would not be as far in front of Cleveland as they are.

Pie-in-the-Sky rookies more often than not turn out to be Moose Turd Pie.

The statement is amazing.  Let's highlight a couple average players while ignoring Julien / Walner / Lewis and Kirilloff who has yet to really prove himself because of injuries.   For that matter, Jeffers was not all that proven either and last winter many were insisting he needed to be strictly a back-up.  Let's further ignore that the other proven vets have mostly underperformed.  Talk about selective recognition of the facts.

For me it’s about health. If the training staff feels he is fully healthy at the end of this season allowing him to train this off season I absolutely pick up his option. Polo has been a really good player - odds are none of the listed replacements will be as good as Polo next year. Lee might be an exception but he might not be up right away. We will really need him if Lewis ends up playing CF. I hope everyone has noticed his fielding the last several games. He has saved several runs compared to if Julien was in the game. 

Twins signed him to a bargain deal and reaped the rewards. Does Polanco get $10m in FA now? Probably not, but some team would give him close to that.  Would he stay for a revised 2 year $15m with bonus potential? When healthy, he is the type of hitter that stirs the drink. 

I do think one consequence of picking up Polanco's option could be losing Nick Gordon from the roster. I don't see room for all of Polanco, Farmer, Castro and Gordon as utility players.

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Similar signings last offseason

Jean Segura 2 years $17M (underperforming)

Brandon Drury 2 years $17M (meets expectations)

Aledmys Diaz 2 years $14.5M (underperforming)

Matt Carpenter 2 years $12M (underperforming)

Jace Peterson 2 years $9.5M (meets expectations)

Adam Frazier 1 year $8M (meets expectations)

Wil Myers 1 year $7.5M (underperforming)

Jeimer Candelario 1 year $5M (OVERperforming)

Evan Longoria 1 year $4M (meet expectations)

Elvis Andrus 1 year $3M (underperforming)

Donovan Solano 1 year $2M (OVERperforming)

Josh Harrison 1 year $2M (underperforming)

Willi Castro 1 year $1.8M (OVERperforming)

Yes I think Polo is positioning himself as a utility type and would accept a 2 year deal at a lower AAV than 10.5m. His track record the last few years has lowered his leverage. Polo is an asset on many levels for this franchise and it would be wise to keep him around as you usher in the next wave. He would also be more tradable with that kind of deal. 

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

So you'd rather have the more expensive player because he's more likely to be injured and miss games? That's some convoluted reasoning.

His point is that if Polo is healthy he is a strong asset and if not it opens up the chance to try out depth with high upside. Farmer will most likely be healthy, mediocre and taking up a 26 man spot all season. I'd call that sound reasoning. 

Polanco still has life left. Made 3 plays wed night that Julien would have just waved at. Him and Correa are the best DP combo. Julien is horrible on DP feeds and range is so limited. Lee may replace Polanco but not Julien. Julien was just 0-13 so pitchers may be figuring him out like they did with Miranda who we all thought would be at 3rd for next 10 years. And Julien getting picked off first twice in key situations shows his baseball instincts still need work.

21 minutes ago, wabene said:

 Farmer will most likely be healthy, mediocre and taking up a 26 man spot all season.

Isn't healthy and mediocre exactly what you want from a backup?

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Isn't healthy and mediocre exactly what you want from a backup?

Does mediocre get you wins? Does a well paid mediocre vet block young talent from rising? If Polo is healthy he is a big difference maker. If a player like that will accept a utility role, that might just give you a leg up on your competition. If he is injured, try out your young talent. You might just happen upon a rookie hot streak which could also give you an advantage.  

On 8/18/2023 at 9:35 AM, roger said:

Is it, Cody?

Polo and Kepler are going to be two huge decisions the front office must make at year end.  I can see them going either way with each.  Personally, don't have a clue what they will do or even an opinion on what they should. 

Both have been a huge part of the Twins for as long as many of us can remember.  If either or both are gone, will be missed by many of us.

I love Polanco and he has been great for the Twins.  That said, professional sports is a harsh business.  We are seeing diminishing performance from Jorge which statistics say will accelerate.  The Twins need to make room for all their youngsters who are performing.  I've heard folks advocate moving Kirilloff back to the outfield...which isn't a bad idea; however, I think first base might be the best position for Julien.

Always seems that getting rid of reliable players and getting unknowns is the Twins MO.   No way they should let him go!

I bet he is hoping for a trade.  Bet many would be quite happy to be on a different team.  

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

I bet he is hoping for a trade.  Bet many would be quite happy to be on a different team.  

Not at all my perception.

Polanco would be a great super utility man IMO.  It is common in baseball for an aging vet to transition to a reduced role.  In Polanco’s case that would likely also translate to better health.  

All the angst about a spot in the infield for Julien seems misplaced to me.  He is our next DH who can grab a glove if needed. Maybe he starts 2024 @ 2nd base if they don’t feel Lee is ready or they want to suppress service time for Lee . 

Lee, Lewis, and Castro will cover 2B and 3B by mid 2024.  Martin will likely replace Taylor as the “backup” CF who gets 400 ABs.  Kirilloff will likely stay at 1B.  Buxton plays CF and IL.  Wallner and Kepler in the corners.  Lewis, Lee, Castro, and Polanco could all cover SS when Correa is NA.   

Gordon, Farmer, Taylor, and Solano are likely gone.  These are the guys that are pushed off the roster by younger players.  This also makes it easier to find 40 man roster space for players like Severino and Prato.

On 8/19/2023 at 9:21 PM, MABB1959 said:

Always seems that getting rid of reliable players and getting unknowns is the Twins MO.   No way they should let him go!

He hasn't been reliable. He's missed 60% of the games due to injury.

31 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

That leaves you Polanco, Farmer, Solano, and Miranda, and a bunch of now AAA guys in Lee, Severino, and maaaybe Austin Martin although I think he's an OF in the majors. Castro? More of a super utility/OF than an IF. Same for Gordon. Now rank them for 2024.

There's also every player available as a free agent and several players who are arbitration eligible on other rosters (ex: Farmer and Taylor). The question isn't just whether Polanco is better than the alternatives but whether he's $10.5M better. Solano (for $2M) has been much more important to the 2023 Twins than Polanco.

Castro has been a better infield defender than Polanco this season. Not sure why you dismiss him as an option.

45 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Guys, I really don't understand this desire to get rid of Polanco. Let's start with the basics. We need 6 infielders in 2024, 2 of whom can play SS. It's 6 IFs, not 1 IB, 1 2B, etc. All of them can and should be relatively interchangeable at 1B, 2B, and 3B. That's the way you ride out injuries, slumps, platoon advantages, etc. and remain competitive. That's modern baseball. That's the way this team is being built. 

Ok, who are those 6 next year for the Twins? Correa, Lewis, Julien, and Kirilloff are locks. I don't see Kirilloff in lF, we have enough OFs. That leaves you Polanco, Farmer, Solano, and Miranda, and a bunch of now AAA guys in Lee, Severino, and maaaybe Austin Martin although I think he's an OF in the majors. Castro? More of a super utility/OF than an IF. Same for Gordon. Now rank them for 2024. Polanco is clearly #1. He hits better than Farmer, fields better than Solano or Miranda, and is more versatile in the IF than either of them. Lee? Severino? They both need to tear up AAA first, and they both just got there. Could they be mid-season call ups? Absolutely, but not before then. Is it Polanco's salary? Well, it's an option so pay the freight for 1 year or maybe give him a 2 year deal at around 7m AAV. The Twins have a lot of low salaried players now so the overall payroll can handle that easily and still fortify the pitching staff with FAs. It's just hard to see a rationale for losing Polanco other than wanting Lee or Severino up all year. Hard to see the sense in creating uncertainty with an unproven player when you have a good to very good veteran for that spot. 

Next year's IF group is Correa, Julien, Lewis, Kiriloff, Polanco, and either Miranda (my bet) or Farmer coming out of ST. Solano is 35 and gone next year. Gallo is way gone. Julien and Polanco take a lot of 1B reps in the offseason and ST next year and they plus Miranda are the alternative to Kirilloff at 1B, not Solano or Gallo. That is a solid to very good group who can all field at least competently with the possible exception of Julien and have all shown that they can hit in the top 6 spots in an MLB lineup. Julien will be better at D next year with more reps and work, maybe even average. He stays for his bat and you find him a place to play. 

Keep Polanco next year. I see no one as good or better to replace him at least at the start of the season and there isn't a good reason to lose him. 

 

I have no problem with them keeping Polanco.  However, he will not be a starter which changes how and if he fits into the mix.  He is not all that versatile because we don't want him at SS and the SSS at 3B has not looked good.  I would look at who are the 5 bench players as opposed to who are the 6 INfers because some of our utility players can play both IF and OF. 

Castro can play LF/CF/3B/2B/SS.   Gordon can Play LF/CF/2B/SS   Severino can play 1B/2B3B. 

Martin can play CF/LF/2B/SS    Farmer can play 2B/3B/SS   Miranda can play 3B/1B    Lee is 3B/SS and perhaps 2B

Prato could be in the mix as well playing  2B/3B.   That's a lot of depth!

Things really change once Lee is here.  With lee at 3B I suspect Lewis plays 6 days a week in multiple positions.  Polanco can really only provide depth at 2B.  It makes no sense to play him anywhere else.  With this is mind, is the $10M better spent on pitching and the ABs better invested in providing opportunity for Severino/Prato/Martin/Miranda?  Tough call!

On 8/19/2023 at 11:19 AM, Jeff K said:

I love Polanco and he has been great for the Twins.  That said, professional sports is a harsh business.  We are seeing diminishing performance from Jorge which statistics say will accelerate.  The Twins need to make room for all their youngsters who are performing.  I've heard folks advocate moving Kirilloff back to the outfield...which isn't a bad idea; however, I think first base might be the best position for Julien.

I agree with you in the sense that they may have to make room for younger players in the infield. I am NOT interested most likely in an extention for Jorge, but that option year next year might be hard to pass up, especially if he is healthy. Worse case the Twins bomb next year and he can be moved for possible prospects if he indeed produces himself next season.

Always so quick to let players go and as much as would hate to lose Polanco, I would be happy if he landed on a competitive team.  

• Arraez
• Hicks
• Rosario (current NL player of the week)
• Berrios (pretty good and injury free)
• Suzuki (he hung around for a long time and played many games.  His hitting was decent)
• Escobar

The good news is that the Twins don't need to make this decision now.  They have a fourth of the season left to play out, see how Polanco hits and fields, and whether he stays healthy.

WCCO TV just had spiel on Lee, not much more than how he feels but they did say the Twins have too many talented infielders.

Youngsters often have greater trade value than a veteran, unless the vet is already top line, so, next year some of the rookies will probably go else where but locally grown boys have an edge to stay with the Twins.

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I like Polanco. I don't think I keep him....

1. He's not very good defensively. You want a good defensive bench guy to replace Julien late in games. Who is your backup SS if he's on the roster and Farmer isn't?

2. He's not been healthy for two years. Not sure why he would be next year.

3. He blocks young players. THIS FO has shown they LOVE veterans. I mean, Julien was great in replacing Polanco the first time, but was sent down and was only up again because Polanco got hurt a second time. I don't trust this FO to give Lee or Severino shots next year if Polanco is on the roster.

4. He's better than many teams' 2b, and has trade value. 

5. That's a good chuck of change for a backup. 

6. He's not ever going to be demoted to AAA for depth reasons.

If they do keep him, I hope they are smart enough to move on if he doesn't play well (Gallo indicates that's unlikely) or if Lee and/or Severino are mashing next year.

They actually have a lot of back-up SSs.  Lewis would be the 1st back-up.  By June (hopefully) Lee or Lewis with Castro as a 3rd option.  This team has all kinds of depth at 2B/3B/SS.  I could go either way.  One possibility is they start the season with Castro / Polanco / Gordon and Larnach or a RH OFer acquired over the winter.  Polanco and Farmer do not make sense IMO.  Injuries always provide plenty of opportunity for auditions.  Lee / Severino / Prato / Martin / Miranda and Hellman will all hopefully continue to earn a shot.

The other train of thought is to continue with the youth movement.  That many guys, All with versatility.  Most with options.  That reduces the risk of letting Polanco go.  Now, if they can get something decent in return, my on the fence point of view shifts significantly in favor of moving him.  Spend the $10M on pitching or to contribute to landing a good RH OFer.  Plus, get a decent prospect and this becomes a pretty easy decision for me.  Of course, there is a quarter of a season left to influence this line of thinking.