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    Hardball, the Twins, and Byron Buxton

    Ted Schwerzler

    By Ted Schwerzler

    Byron Buxton was activated off the Triple A disabled list in mid-August and returned to game action for the Rochester Red Wings on August 14. He’s played in 10 games since that point, but the Twins don’t seem willing to commit to the idea that he’ll be a big leaguer come September. Make no mistake about it, this is a service time issue, and a silly one at that.

    UPDATE: Darren Wolfson of KSTP shared on Twitter that he has been told Buxton will be heading home at the conclusion of the minor league season.

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    Friday evening update: Wolfson shared that Buxton would not be joining the Twins tomorrow, as the rosters expand to 40. He later confirmed that the plan, at least at the moment, is that Byron will shut it down as soon as Rochester's season ends Monday.

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    In 2018 Buxton has played in just 28 games with the Twins, and his .383 OPS is third worst among all players with at least 90 plate appearances. Due to migraines, a broken toe, and a wrist injury, he’s missed a considerable chunk of the season. Calling 2018 a lost year would be defining it well, but there’s still opportunity to get something of value from the remaining slate.

    At the crux of Buxton’s issues is the fact that he simply needs exposure. Playing time and competition against the best in the sport are the avenue to getting him back on track. A season ago, he was the Platinum Glove winner, a Gold Glove winner, and he garnered MVP votes in the American League. The bat still wasn’t where Minnesota had hoped, but the reality is that his defense is so good that there’s significant margin for error.

    From this writer’s vantage point, the Twins have made some peculiar decisions with Buxton in 2018. Not sending him out on a rehab assignment following his time missed with migraines was fine in my estimation. After completing his rehab assignment revolving around his broken toe, demoting him to Triple A was nothing short of confusing. Regardless of standing, Minnesota went from suggesting that Buxton’s defense was so imperative to the team’s success that they needed him here, to believing he couldn’t hit MLB pitching and Triple A was the place for a jump-start.

    Since rejoining Rochester from his latest stint on the disabled list, Buxton is slashing .386/.413/.659 with nine extra-base hits. He has a less than ideal 10/1 K/BB rate, but it’s again clear that he’s well above the level he's currently tasked with. Although he didn’t voice it publicly, I’d imagine Buxton would echo his wife’s sentiments when it comes to the oddity that the training wheels of Triple A seem necessary at this point in his career.

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    As far as I’m concerned, confidence issues are real, but they only carry so much weight. Thus far Minnesota has opted to look at Triple A as a breeding ground for Byron to feast and “find confidence” at the major league level. That’s all fine and well in theory, but if the results don’t translate to the highest level, nothing accomplished on the farm really matters. Instead of facing far inferior competition, having Byron working with James Rowson on a daily basis and getting acclimated to a consistent dose of the best competition seems like a much more fundamentally sound plan.

    Legally the Twins can’t publicly say that Byron Buxton won’t be up in September because of service time considerations. Per Jeremy Nygaard’s calculations, Minnesota can save a year of service time if Buxton is held back beyond September 18. The Rochester Red Wings end their season on September 3, and from that point on there’d be nowhere else for him to go play. Byron not being in Houston with the Twins on September 4 would signify nothing short of service time manipulation.

    The idea of service time value doesn’t typically come into play with an established big leaguer. A prospect like Eloy Jimenez or Vlad Guerrero Jr. being held back through September to gain a year in a lost season makes some sense. The Twins manipulating service time for a guy they think needs Triple A to jump-start his big-league bat every time it slumps, or he misses time is an entirely different scenario. Arguably nothing could be more important for the star center fielder than exposure. Getting at-bats, getting into games, and making up lost time in the big leagues is a must. Giving up those opportunities under the guise of future considerations seems laughable at the current juncture.

    I had hoped Buxton would be in a Twins uniform by now. He could’ve gotten in a couple of games with Rochester and then begun to re-establish himself through the remainder of the MLB schedule. It’s fine that the move hasn’t been made yet, but that won’t be the case if it doesn’t happen when September 4th rolls around.

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    A blogger for over a decade, passion for baseball and the Minnesota Twins runs deep. Whether at the ballpark or on the couch, I'm probably tweeting.
    Follow Ted Schwerzler on Twitter: tlschwerz

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    mazeville

    mazeville 1,447

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Probably nobody reads this as this is on page 10, but ...

     

    I've liked so much of what this front office has done. I liked its offseason. I like the fact that they concluded they had no chance of competing and helped build the farm system by trading away free agents. 

     

    But this is just frustrating. I like Jake Cave and think he has definite potential. I like Tyler Austin. But I don't see why you don't bring Buxton up and give him more at-bats this year to get that swing right. 

     

    This was a player who had a 5.2 WAR last year and who won the platinum glove. He had a very slow start -- and that's totally on Byron, who NEEDS to get his act together early in the season; the best way to protect yourself from getting sent to the minors is to play better, for god's sake -- but he was injured for much of the year. He was put on the DL for a migraine, had his toe injury badly mishandled then hurt his wrist in the minors. Good grief give the dude a break. 

     

    I would not blame Buxton one bit if he filed a grievance. I would not blame him one bit if he left as a free agent. 

    laloesch

    laloesch 1,899

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Head and shoulders? Temporarily, for sure, but long-term? Not really.

     

    And here're the actual numbers on Buxton's K-rate:

     

    Buxton K% 2018: 29.8%

    Buxton K% 2017: 29.4%

     

    VS. Cave:

     

    Cave K% 2018: 31.9%

     

    Oops.

     

    This forgotten facts below are why it's far too soon to so easily write off Buck:

     

    Buxton WAR for 2017 in 140 games: 5.2

     

    Buxton MILB OPS: .874 SLG: .499

    Cave MILB OPS: .768 SLG: .426

     

    Which set of numbers suggests ultimately a better outcome?

     

    In addition, Cave is not all that impressive in CF, but might make a decent corner OF. It seems to me like he's threatening Kepler's job more than Buxton's. (And consider the need for one RH bat in the OF).

     

    I'm anxious and hopeful to see a new-look Buxton in ST in 2019- 100% healthy, after a huge off-season devoted to addressing his flaws at the plate-

    AND-

    with a huge chip on his shoulder with something to prove to everybody, including himself, that he can and will fulfill his true promise and potential.

     

    The guy can barely hit .200 and you want him to take over Cave's starting job to finish the season?  okayyyy...... 

    Brandon Warne

    Brandon Warne 1,697

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    The guy can barely hit .200 and you want him to take over Cave's starting job to finish the season?  okayyyy...... 

     

    Cave needs better CF defense or plate discipline to be a starting outfielder. How he's playing right now is like a perfect-world fourth OF, because I don't see how it's super sustainable. 

    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 10,766

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    Service time is the primary factor. The Twins can extend control by offering and extension or managing service time.

     

    It was widely reported that the Twins offered Buxton a multiyear extension last winter. Buxton turned them down. That is a gamble on Buxton’s part as he is betting on himself the remain healthy and performing at an elected level.

     

    Buxton performed poorly and the Twins went with plan B.

    Edited by jorgenswest
    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    If he doesn't turn into a superstar, all this angst is for nothing.

     

    Not really. He needs his reps to get better. If the Twins blew the relationship, we can point to this as a reason why ... yet another mismanaged move by this organization.

     

    The facts we know:

     

    1) Buxton was playing well in AAA.

    2) Twins brass admitted this decision was going to taint their relationship with him.

    3) Twins brass admitted this decision had nothing to do with how well he was playing.

    4) Twins brass suggested this might set him back even more, and they will have to work hard to keep him happy in the future (also suggesting they weren't working on the relationship at all before).

    The non-facts / opinions / predictions / inhumane takes:

     

    1) Buxton might always suck anyway, so none of this matters.

    2) The Twins can just trade him, because players picked second in the draft grow on trees or something.

    3) Buxton has no choice but to play well if he wants a job, so who cares how the Twins treat him.

    4) Another year of Buxton at below market rates ("One more year of control") is somehow best for everyone involved. (It's only best for Mr. Pohlad. For everyone else, including the fans and including the future playoff hopes of this team, it is worse).

     

    I like it better when baseball fans stick to the facts instead of going with their opinions, because incredibly bad takes like the above are what always comes out on the opinion side.

    Edited by Doomtints
    Twins33

    Twins33 752

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Where’d you read this, that he was allowed to leave? If that’s accuracy, then thanks for the info. I hadn’t read that anywhere.

    I saw the same thing. I think it was on twitter but I can't find it.

     

    There was also a report that his locker was cleaned out the other day and that he was gone and then all of a sudden he showed up later that day so it's been really confusing.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,386

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Service time is the primary factor. The Twins can extend control by offering and extension or managing service time.

     

    It was widely reported that the Twins offered Buxton a multiyear extension last winter. Buxton turned them down. That is a gamble on Buxton’s part as he is betting on himself the remain healthy and performing at an elected level.

     

    Buxton performed poorly and the Twins went with plan B.

    Well, usually a player doesn't have to bet on health to keep collecting service time. You can't option an injured player to the minors.

     

    I understand the feeling that the Twins may not have deployed "plan B" in an entirely good faith way, considering Buxton has only had 43 healthy PA since those extension talks, and they may have asked him to play through an injury which may have led to him getting optioned in the first place.

     

    And of course, he was ostensibly back to full health and performing to his usual standards at AAA when the latest part of the Twins "plan B" was implemented.

    TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan 21,098

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Don't know what you are watching but he was hitting like a stud in AAA after being activated in August. Small sample size, but .385 is a Rod Carew number. 

     

    He was also not walking and striking out a bunch.  Those are much better indicators of a sustainable performance than slapping some singles around.

     

    Sorry, he was not dominant.  His 150 ABs down there have yielded a .765 OPS and a 42-9 strikeout to walk ratio.  That's a player who still hasn't figured it out.

    SwainZag

    SwainZag 7,018

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    What makes anyone think that Buxton can win a grievance against the Twins?  Take away the prospect ranking and where he was drafted and no one blinks an eye at any of this.  Yes, he had a few good months last year, outside of that he has been often injured and putting it nicely, lousy at the plate.  It is well within the rules for the team to shut him down for the rest of season, and quite frankly....probably the smartest thing to do.  Let him heal whatever he has going on and start him early next season.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,386

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    FWIW, since he was optioned on July 2nd, Buxton had a 151 wRC+ at AAA. 27.3% K rate, compared to his career AAA rate of 26.8%. And both were trending better: since coming off the minor league DL on August 14th, 181 wRC+ and 23.6% K%.

     

    Obviously nothing to suggest a MLB breakout was imminent or anything, but also not the kind of performance that usually gets sent home in September either.

    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    What makes anyone think that Buxton can win a grievance against the Twins?  Take away the prospect ranking and where he was drafted and no one blinks an eye at any of this.  Yes, he had a few good months last year, outside of that he has been often injured and putting it nicely, lousy at the plate.  It is well within the rules for the team to shut him down for the rest of season, and quite frankly....probably the smartest thing to do.  Let him heal whatever he has going on and start him early next season.

     

    You just described exactly how he would win a grievance. If he is being sent home to play with his X-Box because he has to "heal" the Twins have to prove he is injured. The rules of baseball dictate getting three doctors to sign off on it. The player is allowed to bring in doctors as well, and the MLB will follow up with even more doctors after the Twins submit this to the league.

     

    Nothing would change (he would still sit out the rest of the year because this would all take a long time), but none of this would work out well for the Twins. The Twins would lose the coveted "extra year of control" at a minimum.

     

    If the Twins want to keep him away for service time concerns, they should NOT imply he is injured at any point in time to anyone. Doing so will not work out for them.

    Edited by Doomtints
    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

     

    FWIW, since he was optioned on July 2nd, Buxton had a 151 wRC+ at AAA. 27.3% K rate, compared to his career AAA rate of 26.8%. And both were trending better: since coming off the minor league DL on August 14th, 181 wRC+ and 23.6% K%.

    Obviously nothing to suggest a MLB breakout was imminent or anything, but also not the kind of performance that usually gets sent home in September either.

     

    Right. He was playing well.

     

    The end of the season is the best time to get reps for someone like Buxton, and he's on the 40-man so he wouldn't be taking anyone's place. Even if they rarely play him, he should be with the team.

    Edited by Doomtints
    SwainZag

    SwainZag 7,018

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    You just described exactly how he would win a grievance. If he is being sent home to play with his X-Box because he has to "heal" the Twins have to prove he is injured. The rules of baseball dictate getting three doctors to sign off on it. The player is allowed to bring in doctors as well, and the MLB will follow up with even more doctors after the Twins submit this to the league.

     

    Nothing would change (he would still sit out the rest of the year because this would all take a long time), but none of this would work out well for the Twins. The Twins would lose the coveted "extra year of control" at a minimum.

     

    If the Twins want to keep him away for service time concerns, they should NOT imply he is injured at any point in time to anyone. Doing so will not work out for them.

     

    Wait wait.  He is not being sent home, he is simply not being called up.  There is a big difference here.   There is no mandatory rule that states a player on the 40 man roster has be called in September.  

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,386

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    He was also not walking and striking out a bunch. Those are much better indicators of a sustainable performance than slapping some singles around.

     

    Sorry, he was not dominant. His 150 ABs down there have yielded a .765 OPS and a 42-9 strikeout to walk ratio. That's a player who still hasn't figured it out.

    .901 OPS, .220 ISO since he was optioned, and his rehab ended. So he wasn't just slapping singles around.

     

    6.1% BB%, 27.3% K%, which isn't great but is pretty much in line with expectations.

     

    I can definitely see the case for leaving him down / not recalling him, but I also think the Twins messaging on this has been a little scattershot. They did better explaining the Sano to Ft Myers thing.

     

    Here's an article about his July 2nd option:

     

    "The Twins have repeatedly said they will leave him there until he gets his bat going."

     

    http://m.startribune.com/twins-take-byron-buxton-off-dl-but-he-stays-in-rochester-jorge-polanco-returns/487174841/

     

    I think they would have been better off publicly setting a higher threshold for his recall, and/or just shutting him down when the wrist problem came up.

    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

     

    .

    4) Another year of Buxton at below market rates ("One more year of control") is somehow best for everyone involved. (It's only best for Mr. Pohlad. For everyone else, including the fans and including the future playoff hopes of this team, it is worse).

     

    Do tell why it is worse for the team and its fans to have extra money to spend for a top of the rotation pitcher and/or a real closer because Buxton will wait a year to get his money.

     

    Also, do tell why it is worse for the team to have another year of control for Buxton instead of him taking meaningless PAs in a team that is going nowhere

     

     

    If he needs PAs, he should do like the rest of the minor leaguers do:  Instructs and/or winter leagues.

    Edited by Thrylos
    Kelly Vance

    Kelly Vance 951

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    The guy can barely hit .200 and you want him to take over Cave's starting job to finish the season?  okayyyy...... 

    He was hitting .385 since activated in August. It's Buck's job. Cave is at best a corner outfielder. Buck is the best defensive center fielder in all of baseball. 

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,386

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

    What makes anyone think that Buxton can win a grievance against the Twins?

    I don't think Buxton would win a grievance. But just inviting a grievance is probably a failure of timing/communication on the Twins part. (See my post above citing their rationale for his July 2nd option.)

    Edited by spycake
    TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan 21,098

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I think they would have been better off publicly setting a higher threshold for his recall, and/or just shutting him down when the wrist problem came up.

    I agree the messaging has been poor. I advocated shutting him down after the wrist as well, this was a lost season then.

     

    Though I think leaving him no chance to rehab might have lead to the same angst of today.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,386

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    He was hitting .385 since activated in August. It's Buck's job. Cave is at best a corner outfielder. Buck is the best defensive center fielder in all of baseball.

    I think it's fair to temper expectations for Cave, but there's room for them both to play this September.

     

    The Twins can justify the decision enough in terms of defeating a grievance, but Levine saying there's no room for Buxton right now still sounds a little ridiculous.

    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Do tell why it is worse for the team and its fans to have extra money to spend for a top of the rotation pitcher and/or a real closer because Buxton will wait a year to get his money.

     

    Also, do tell why it is worse for the team to have another year of control for Buxton instead of him taking meaningless PAs in a team that is going nowhere

     

     

    If he needs PAs, he should do like the rest of the minor leaguers do:  Instructs and/or winter leagues.

     

    1) The Twins want the best players NOW, not just in 5 years. Good organizations manage to have both.

    2) In 5 years, the Twins will also want the best players AT THAT MOMENT, not just in another 5 years. Good organizations manage to have both.

    3) In 10 years, the Twins will also want the...

     

     

    Edited by Doomtints
    Platoon

    Platoon 8,729

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I am having a very hard time understanding the Cave/Buxton/Field comparisons. Yes Cave is having a nice run, with I think as someone has posted a 31% SO ratio. And several balls rolling to the CF fence. Field? So far his calling card has been the ability to run out to LF, and back. Buxton has a Platinum glove and some MVP votes. Let's simplify this. Let's put all 3 on the trading block this winter. Then let's see what the other 31 GM in MLB offer for each. I will be taking bets on Platoon@TD.com :)

    Blackjack

    Blackjack 869

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    That is what there is to LOVE about him. He plays 100 percent. You see it as a negative?  Man. 

    He does the Twins no good if he's on the injured list. Save the Superman stuff for the last out of a playoff game. Play hard but smart. 

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,386

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Though I think leaving him no chance to rehab might have lead to the same angst of today.

    I don't think so. Wrist issues aren't new for him, I think a shutdown then would have passed without much angst. Especially with a "Ft. Myers" type action plan. Most folks were already shrugging it off as a lost season by then (for Buxton and for the Twins as a team).

     

    The messaging gets super-clouded when you let him play through it at AAA, he plays fairly well, and then you try to revive the "lost season" framing on Sep. 1st.

    Squirrel

    Squirrel 42,999

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    Moderator note:

     

    There is a wide difference of opinion on this issues, which is fine. But name-calling is not, whether it's about the player/s themself/ves or other posters, or anyone else, so please don't go there. Posters and players are not mean nor are they wimps. Keep the debates to the subject matter and not resorting to personal jabs, mischaracterizations, and name-calling. Posts have been and will be removed.

    Blackjack

    Blackjack 869

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Not really. He needs his reps to get better. If the Twins blew the relationship, we can point to this as a reason why ... yet another mismanaged move by this organization.

     

    The facts we know:

     

    1) Buxton was playing well in AAA.

    2) Twins brass admitted this decision was going to taint their relationship with him.

    3) Twins brass admitted this decision had nothing to do with how well he was playing.

    4) Twins brass suggested this might set him back even more, and they will have to work hard to keep him happy in the future (also suggesting they weren't working on the relationship at all before).

    The non-facts / opinions / predictions / inhumane takes:

     

    1) Buxton might always suck anyway, so none of this matters.

    2) The Twins can just trade him, because players picked second in the draft grow on trees or something.

    3) Buxton has no choice but to play well if he wants a job, so who cares how the Twins treat him.

    4) Another year of Buxton at below market rates ("One more year of control") is somehow best for everyone involved. (It's only best for Mr. Pohlad. For everyone else, including the fans and including the future playoff hopes of this team, it is worse).

     

    I like it better when baseball fans stick to the facts instead of going with their opinions, because incredibly bad takes like the above are what always comes out on the opinion side.

     

    Your 'facts' still boil down to if Buxton doesn't figure out a way to stay off the injured list and doesn't become an all-star, all this moaning and groaning about how unfair the Twins brass are won't matter because he won't be on the team in four years when this worrisome extra year of control kicks in.

    Squirrel

    Squirrel 42,999

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    Your 'facts' still boil down to if Buxton doesn't figure out a way to stay off the injured list and doesn't become an all-star, all this moaning and groaning about how unfair the Twins brass are won't matter because he won't be on the team in four years when this worrisome extra year of control kicks in.

    So, are you then saying that if he does figure out a way to stay off the DL and does become an all-star that all this was spot on? And that it will then become worrisome about being able to sign him when he hits FA because of how unfair the FO was in this decision despite the contrary moaning and groaning about the moaning and groaning?

     

    (And as a bit of a note ... let's refrain from calling people's differing opinions as moaning and groaning.)

    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 12,610

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I think the FO's argument about performance rings pretty hollow when they brought up Field. If Field's performance has been good enough to warrant a call-up, then so has Buxton's performance. If Buxton's wrist was hurt the FO should be fired for making him play in AAA with an injury. This was service time manipulation that puts 2022 ahead of 2019.

    SwainZag

    SwainZag 7,018

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    I think the FO's argument about performance rings pretty hollow when they brought up Field. If Field's performance has been good enough to warrant a call-up, then so has Buxton's performance. If Buxton's wrist was hurt the FO should be fired for making him play in AAA with an injury. This was service time manipulation that puts 2022 ahead of 2019.

     

    Field is not up because his performance is better than Buxton's.  Field is a warm body who will be gone as soon as the season ends because quite frankly the Twins have no other OF options in September of what is a non-contending season.

     

    I think it's quite the overreaction to assume that anyone made Buxton play with a wrist injury and even bigger overreaction to say that the FO should be fired because of it.  For all we know it flared up in his last few game or last game he played in.  



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