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President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey labeled Lewis's injury as "severe" and "serious" but did not provide a grade for the strain, the traditional way for communicating the extent of a soft tissue injury. According to The Athletic's Dan Hayes, surgery was never considered.
Soft tissue injuries, such as quadriceps strains, exist on a spectrum with grade 1 injuries considered mild and grade 3s the most severe. But even within the traditional 1-3 grading system, vagueries exist concerning the extent of damage.
MRIs determine the degree of the muscle strain, or torn muscle tissue. If less than 10% of the muscle fibers are damaged, the injury is classified as grade 1 and usually heals within a week or two. If more than 50% of the fibers are torn and/or the integrity of the connecting tendon is compromised, it's classified as a grade 3, and recovery is generally on the order of 4-6 months, especially if surgery is required.
Grade 2 strains comprise a bulk of the classification system with 10-50% of muscle fibers needing to be damaged to meet the criteria. Unlike grade 3 injuries which are all debilitating regardless if 50% or 100% of the fibers are damaged, the amount of function lost and the time needed to heal varies widely based on how many muscle fibers are compromised in grade 2 strains. If the number is closer to 10%, the injury heals similar to a grade 1; if it's closer to 50%, well, you get the idea.
Based on Falvey's description, Lewis's injury likely lands on the more significant end of the grade 2 spectrum. As I reported in our initial story following Lewis's injury, Baseball Prospectus's injury database has the average days missed following a quadriceps strain at 30. According to the Twins, Lewis will spend at least the next 30 rehabilitating before being re-evaluated to determine if it is appropriate to begin ramping back up to game speed. MLB athletes get 20 days once designated for a rehab assignment, so the most optimistic return for Lewis would be in 50 days, or May 19. A more realistic return date may be June 1, which is 63 days from the time of writing, though a later return date can't be ruled out.
While disappointing, the Twins would still have 104 games remaining on their schedule if Lewis returns on June 1, leaving him plenty of time to make an impact on the team's playoff hopes. In the meantime, Austin Martin and Brooks Lee, once he himself returns from injury, will get plenty of run in the big leagues.
Injuries are an unfortunate aspect of sport and no one, other than perhaps Byron Buxton, knows this more than Royce Lewis. Yet, after every roadblock, he returns to post high levels of productivity. Despite the severity of his current malady, we shouldn't expect anything less from the former first overall pick this time around either.
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