Dodgers Come Calling on Twins’ Dynamic Duo as Trade Rumors Pick Up

Control thru the 2027 Season is a huge factor within this discussion. GMs buy out these years quite frequently toward longer term contracts with "Relative" affordability. I see all these comments about how bullpen arms are overvalued...May or may not be true. Hard to see these players as a "Luxury" within the context of the modern game. I suppose it could be viewed as luxury when you seem to have them - Necessity when you are lacking. Just ask the Dodgers....

6 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We trade both Duran and Jax we are rebuilding and look how long it took them to build the bullpen we have ...

The bullpen, for how talented it is, isn't actually that great. It's sitting somewhere around 20th in the league in effectiveness and hasn't been better than league average since the emergence of the "dominant" Jax and Duran, so, yeah, I'm not worried at all about rebuilding that. 

Bullpens are still extremely overrated. Any decent GM can construct one on the fly that is as effective as the current Twins bullpen. 

Of the two, I'd probably trade Duran.  His numbers are better but if one pays close attention, it's Jax that usually gets the heart of a team's order late in games so his numbers aren't going to look as good.  As a "closer" his value may be higher as well.  I want the best, most major league ready catching prospect in baseball plus more for him though.

Rushing is not a high upside hitter.  I'm amazed people want players who don't project to be much of anything.  Rushing and Cub Owen Caissie are the two prime examples.  Don't get fooled by the minor league stats.  Use them.

For Rushing the biggest indicator is the one tough park in the Dodgers system: Great Lakes in the Midwest League.  Rushing was 22, in some ways old for the level prospect-wise, but he was following the same path the Twins have been mostly setting forth for their college prospects.  Spend the draft season at low A, then spend the first part of the next year at A+.  Except he couldn't get out of A+ (like DeBarge and Schobel).

At A+ Rushing had a K rate of close to 25%.  At age 22.  As a catcher.  And he didn't get promoted.  For comparison, Kaelen Culpepper was at 16%.  This is important.  My current analysis has KC as similar to or slightly better major leaguer than Brooks Lee.  Rushing, for me, projects as much less than Lee.  Strikeout rate isn't all that variable, though the ballpark can affect it.  Great hitting parks are great hitting in part because they're not conducive to strikeouts for whatever reason (mound, foul territory).   And the PCL is a whole league of that.  So Rushing's K rate is too high for his age/level/park.

K-rate comparison (they all are born within weeks of each other, relative to draft year)

Player                       A+                     AA                    AAA

Rushing                 24.3 (22y)         20.7  (23y)       20.1 (23y)  (22.0 in repeat age 24)

Lee                         15.8 (21y)          15.9 (22y)         16.7 (22y)  (14.0 in repeat age 23)

Culpepper               16.2 (22y)        14.9 (22y)          tbd  

There is no greater predictor of success than a combination of age/level/K-rate, assuming a baseline of a quality slash line.  Rushing is at best a mediocre player at the MLB level.  The slash lines for each are not really worthy of mention, other than Rushing's A+ being disturbing (.228/.404/.452) and a bit intriguing with an ISO of .224.  Extremely high walk rates, though, are actually negative indicators.

Also, Caissie's K rates are so bad, he's not worth mentioning, unless it's in reference to a race with EmRod to see who gets dumped first by their team.

Looking at slash lines is valuable if you account for K-rate and adjust for age, level, and park.  These don't only knock down Rushing considerably, they also knock down Culpepper and Lee, though Lee at this point in the analysis has some age advantage (not much on Culpepper).  

Finally, I've never considered Rushing a real catcher, but he's playing there for now, so I don't know what happens there.  Reports are not great.

As long as Baldelli is the manager why bother to trade for prospects. His track record developing young promising players is pathetic! Don't trade either pitcher - get a new manager and coaching staff. 

I disagree with most of the comments here. If you decide to trade anyone at this point, you trade for the best available player(s) regardless of position. If the Twins are only willing to make a move that included Rushing, it would back them into a negotiation corner. You take the best players you can get and deal with the fallout later.

Minnesota has strong OF prospects. Depending on how the Twins view the Dodgers prospects, if De Paula or Hope are available in this type of move, you take them. Even if that means you don't get Rushing.

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I disagree with most of the comments here. If you decide to trade anyone at this point, you trade for the best available player(s) regardless of position. If the Twins are only willing to make a move that included Rushing, it would back them into a negotiation corner. You take the best players you can get and deal with the fallout later.

Minnesota has strong OF prospects. Depending on how the Twins view the Dodgers prospects, if De Paula or Hope are available in this type of move, you take them. Even if that means you don't get Rushing.

Can't really disagree, but as I pointed out earlier it seems very unlikely that Falvey would trade a big chip for R/A/A+ players no matter their prospect listing. Get the best return possible is my take. i Think Philly has the bodies.

Most of the Dodgers prospects are in the low level minors. I would rather use them as leverage to get some better prospects from another team that are closer to the majors.

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Great comments and a wide array of views. While I see some real promise in plucking a few future stars from the Dodgers system, I do not believe the Twins will accept a pile of prospects below AA from any team. I think the Twins want players who are close or could be used this year despite inexperience.

The last two games highlighted the holes in the Dodgers bullpen. The Twins hold a couple of excellent relievers in Duran and Jax. The Dodgers are among the top hitting teams in MLB. Every team looking to add Duran or Jax watched them pitch last night. There should be some really solid offers.

From the Dodgers, I'm requiring all of Dalton Rushing, Emmet Sheehan, and River Ryan. I prefer to keep Duran over Jax. I also would require a pile from Philadelphia. Any transactions could be expanded to include players like Bader and Castro (and even Coulombe and Paddack) for further additions from the trading partner. Philadelphia would seem to be a prime team to want several Twins players. I wouldn't rule out a trade with Seattle or Milwaukee.

We will have to live with whatever Falvey decides. On the one hand there were positive trades for Gray, Duran, Lopez, and Ryan (others?), but we don't want to hear about that other hand. 

I like how you’re looking at Milwaukee and Seattle because they ultimately have the catching prospects that would fit the Twins best in Jefferson Quero and Harry Ford. Both guys hitting well at AAA. Both are above average if not plus defensively. If they want MLB ready catching the question is what do those two teams need? It seems they would both need bats or bullpen. I don’t like rushing as you and I have discussed for the fact I don’t think he’s a catcher going forward. At least not every day. I think we involve the dodgers in a 3 team trade or just go with the Phillies. The Phillies don’t have the MLB ready catcher but they’ve got a lot more intriguing prospects that the cupboard to pick from that’s relatively close.

10 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I can’t speak for others on the board, but I don’t think it is Daulton Rushing or bust.  I agree that the “best player available” model is a good one.  However, if something can reasonably include a good catching prospect, then I think that has the potential to fill an immediate need in the system.  If given two roughly equal proposals, with one having Rushing (or similar from another team), I choose the one with the catcher.  If they’re not equal, then they’re not equal, and that’s another story.  No team can have too many good players, so I’m not panicked about a glut of OF or IF or RP, but if you can address glaring weaknesses, I think you do that.  

I agree. I wouldn’t even want Rushing really if I had to choose cause I don’t believe he’s a catcher. Same with Painter from the Phillies. Seems like a Tyler Glasnow to me. I’d rather get a big time prospect no matter the position and fill the trade with electric arms you can plug right into the bullpen. Don’t mess with trying to salvage a starter out of LA’s glut of pitchers. What I’m saying is don’t pull a Varland. Find guys that have stalled out on these teams as starters and take their one or two electric pitches and throw them in the BP right away. 

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

                                   A+                      AA                     AAA

Aaron Judge:        22y 25.3%         23y 25%           24y 23.9% 

Paul Goldschmidt: 22y 26.9%       23y 20.1% 

Cal Raleigh:            22y 19.8%        22y 29.6%        24y 12.6% He did figure it out at AAA after the lost 2020 season

Kyle Schwarber:     21y 19.9%        22y 20.2%       AAA was super small sample, but high K% 

Will Smith             22y 23.3%       23y 24.4%        24y 18.1%

Pete Alonso         22y 18.5%         23y 18.3%         23y 25.9%

That's just me pulling similar aged hitters from the top of the current wRC+ leaderboard. That's 6 of the top 11 qualified hitters in baseball right now. Some sizeable K rates in there.

I'm not arguing for Rushing. I want the best talent possible as opposed to just getting a catcher like many want. And I don't think he'd be the best talent possible. And I don't doubt your data. But you'd be passing on some awfully good hitters by only looking at your data. Like a guy who's putting up some of the best offensive seasons by a right-handed hitter in the history of the sport.

Agreed! I don’t want Rushing and I don’t want Painter. I’d rather take De Paula/Hope or Abel/Crawford/Miller. Rushing isn’t a catcher going forward and Painter is an oft injured starter going forward more likely a bullpen arm. I believe anyways.

3 hours ago, S Bart said:

Honestly, you may be correct. Although, I would rather have Smith.

That ain’t happening. He’s the best catcher in MLB not named Raleigh on one of the best teams in MLB. I want Judge hitting behind Buxton. 

4 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

 

Not high enough. It has to be a top 10 prospect and another in the top 100.

Once you get outside the top of the top 100 the majority of players are not impactful major leaguers. Look back 20 years to the 2015 top 100 list. The top is pretty good short of Gallo and Russell. There are some very impactful players outside the top 10 but there are many more that have made little impact. Being in the top 100 is not that special. I need a 60 FV to headline these deals. Most of the top 100 has an FV of 50 and multiples of them isn’t good enough. 

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Not high enough. It has to be a top 10 prospect and another in the top 100.

Once you get outside the top of the top 100 the majority of players are not impactful major leaguers. Look back 20 years to the 2015 top 100 list. The top is pretty good short of Gallo and Russell. There are some very impactful players outside the top 10 but there are many more that have made little impact. Being in the top 100 is not that special. I need a 60 FV to headline these deals. Most of the top 100 has an FV of 50 and multiples of them isn’t good enough. 

Not many teams wanting those guys have a top 10 nationally if any. Multiple top 100’s is what you’re shopping for.

2 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Not many teams wanting those guys have a top 10 nationally if any. Multiple top 100’s is what you’re shopping for.

It doesn’t take many. There are a few. Otherwise I will wait until next year and take the multiple 100s if they are sellers.

10 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Not high enough. It has to be a top 10 prospect and another in the top 100.

Once you get outside the top of the top 100 the majority of players are not impactful major leaguers. Look back 20 years to the 2015 top 100 list. The top is pretty good short of Gallo and Russell. There are some very impactful players outside the top 10 but there are many more that have made little impact. Being in the top 100 is not that special. I need a 60 FV to headline these deals. Most of the top 100 has an FV of 50 and multiples of them isn’t good enough. 

Worth noting that neither Duran nor Jax was ever rated that highly.

5 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

It doesn’t take many. There are a few. Otherwise I will wait until next year and take the multiple 100s if they are sellers.

They probably don’t get multiples this time next year. Look at the Soto trade.

31 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

I like how you’re looking at Milwaukee and Seattle because they ultimately have the catching prospects that would fit the Twins best in Jefferson Quero and Harry Ford. Both guys hitting well at AAA. Both are above average if not plus defensively. If they want MLB ready catching the question is what do those two teams need? It seems they would both need bats or bullpen. I don’t like rushing as you and I have discussed for the fact I don’t think he’s a catcher going forward. At least not every day. I think we involve the dodgers in a 3 team trade or just go with the Phillies. The Phillies don’t have the MLB ready catcher but they’ve got a lot more intriguing prospects that the cupboard to pick from that’s relatively close.

Trade with the Brewers might look like...1) Jeferson Quero C  2) Josh Noth RHP 18 y.o. A Ball 3) Brett Wichrowski 22 y.o. RHP AA. Quero was a defense first prospect whose hitting has really improved. Great arm. Sits behind William Contreras who at 27 y.o is hard to pull from the lineup. Is this too greedy??!!

1 minute ago, TNtwins85 said:

They probably don’t get multiples this time next year. Look at the Soto trade.

That was the Berrios deal. Two FV 50 or 55 prospects in Woods Richardson and Martin. In Fangraphs updated report Martin was #48 and Woods Richardson was #85. In reality they were both closer in future value to the #250 than those in the top 10. The majority of the top 100 hasve a future value of 50 which extends towards 200. If the Twins are going to give up 3 years of playoff control they need to get more than multiple top 100s. They need to get more than they received for Berrios.

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

Finally, I've never considered Rushing a real catcher, but he's playing there for now, so I don't know what happens there.  Reports are not great.

Now he may be a another Ben Rohrton, whose catching dropped miserably in his third year but right now Rushing a very good catcher.

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

That was the Berrios deal. Two FV 50 or 55 prospects in Woods Richardson and Martin. In Fangraphs updated report Martin was #48 and Woods Richardson was #85. In reality they were both closer in future value to the #250 than those in the top 10. The majority of the top 100 hasve a future value of 50 which extends towards 200. If the Twins are going to give up 3 years of playoff control they need to get more than multiple top 100s. They need to get more than they received for Berrios.

Hindsight’s always 20/20 and nothing is guaranteed. If you want more than that then let’s put on our imagination caps and ask for 100 top 100’s. Would that be enough?

12 minutes ago, madtowntwin said:

Trade with the Brewers might look like...1) Jeferson Quero C  2) Josh Noth RHP 18 y.o. A Ball 3) Brett Wichrowski 22 y.o. RHP AA. Quero was a defense first prospect whose hitting has really improved. Great arm. Sits behind William Contreras who at 27 y.o is hard to pull from the lineup. Is this too greedy??!!

 

I think it’s in the neighborhood for sure! I’ve been high on Quero since this last winter. A stud! Seen him play in Nashville a few times. Very solid defense.