Do Ober's Innings Matter?

Three advantages this year:

1) Ober focused on off-season strength conditioning that will hopefully pay off over the balance of this season. He worked on his slider and change-up, bolstering command and control. 

2) Kenta Maeda's impending promotion will likely create a six-man rotation, per Rocco Baldelli. 

3) His pitch counts have ranged from the 70's to the 90's over his previous five starts.

It's a little early to say that the Twins will cruise to a playoff berth due to a soft schedule, given that they can't seem to beat Detroit at Target Field. But it would be nice to see Ober healthy if the Twins need him in October. 

6 hours ago, Don't Feed the Greed Guy said:

2) Kenta Maeda's impending promotion will likely create a six-man rotation, per Rocco Baldelli.

I really hope there is more nuance to the plan than just that.

Simple math: in an era of 13-man pitching staffs, a 6-man rotation leaves 7 relievers instead of the current 8.  That makes it more important, not less, for most of the starts to be of the longer variety.  A sequence of four-inning starts such as Sonny Gray gave us the other day will wear down a 7-man bullpen fast.  And the guys who we think of as mop-up pitchers will be thrust into even more frequent high-leverage duty.

And who is the one being added to such a rotation?  A guy coming off the injured list, likely to be on a pitch limit, with a ceiling of 5 innings or so, at least for a while?

Shuttling arms up and down from AAA is not a sustainable solution, due to roster rules that require minimum stays in AAA.

Very little margin for error, with such a plan.  So I hope there is another rabbit they can pull out of the hat. Or else that the plan is only a couple of times through the rotation in the expectation that something will sort itself out.

I don't think it is an article of massive concern beyond making sure that he isn't wearing down as the season progresses.  If he has good stuff, feels good, and is effective, he will likely be fine.  It's when pitchers are allowed to/forced to grind through inning after inning that most of the bad stuff happens.  So, my answer is, watch him carefully with the idea that you will let him keep pitching.

I do like the idea of the occasional spot start by a AAA guy helping to give all of the starters an extra day from time to time.  In the past, a AAA guy start was a scary proposition.  Walter Johnson isn't sitting in St. Paul, but they guys they have there seem pretty capable right now.. 

It appears from this article that reaching 150 innings in one season is like climbing Mt. Everest.  The baseball season is just over six months long.  150 innings over six months comes out to 25 innings per month or about six innings a week.  To get paid millions for only six innings a week of work is ridiculous.  If a starter feels strong and is pitching well, leave him in the game until he isn't.  Nolan Ryan pitched for 27 seasons and averaged just under 200 innings a year (6.67/game).  Bert Blyleven pitched for 22 seasons and averaged 226 innings a year (7.1/game).  Athletes are better conditioned today?  Maybe for bodybuilding or going to the beach.  Certainly not for pitching it seems.

I'd suggest changing his name to Bert Blyleven and let him pitch all the innings he wants .. 

Don't treat Ober like a pussy. He's a strapping young man

Ober is at 57.2 innings in the majors, but also has 17.2 in the minors, so his total is already at 75.1. 

The team has 89 games remaining. If they were to follow a straight five-man rotation, that would set him up for 18 more starts. If he averages the 5.72 innings per start that he's had in the majors, he would have another 103 innings, which tracks to 178 for the year. That would be more than 75 percent more than his highest season and close to 2.5 times what he threw last year. And hopefully a few more in the playoffs.

I don't see that happening/being allowed to happen. 

At the very least, I see them using a sixth man in some variation a few times. Even if they did that three times, they would save 15-18 innings from Ober's arm.

We'll get a first glance of their plans in the coming weeks. Assuming Ober-Gray-Ryan through the Boston series, there are 15 games left before the All-Star Game. Rocco said last night that Maeda will pitch "in the majors" this week.

Assuming no injuries, they've got three (or four) logical options with those 15 games. 

1. Use Maeda from the pen. Yesterday, Rocco didn't say Maeda would get a "start," but that's how they've been using him. I don't see that changing, at least immediately.
2. Go to a six-man rotation for a couple weeks. No matter where Maeda slots in against Detroit, that gives them three starts each for Maeda, Varland and Lopez and two each for Ober, Gray and Ryan in the 15 games from Friday to the break. With a couple of off days, everyone would be making their last two starts on six days rest. 
3. Given that Varland has struggled the last several times out, they could have Maeda take his spot, drop him back to St. Paul (or the bullpen) and have three starts each from Maeda, Lopez, Ober, Gray and Ryan. Again, with the off days, most of the remaining starts would come on five days rest.
4. A variation on those would be give Maeda Friday, Varland Saturday and then send him down. With the exception of one game, each starter would be going on five days rest until the break. It would cost Ryan one start before the break.  

Option 2 saves a start for Ober, but I think it weakens the rotation in that it also trades three starts of Varland for a start each of Ober, Gray and Ryan, who have arguably been their three best starters the last while. For that reason, I would go with Option 3 (or perhaps 4). Though it costs Ober a start now, they will have opportunities to skip a start for him after the break.

No matter which option they choose, they will get an extended break for Ober (and everyone) in three weeks, but what they do with Friday and Saturday of this week will give a clue on how they plan to handle Ober.