Did the Twins Exceed Expectations This Year?

I see a few people criticized the Twins for not trading Larnach but they are leaving out that the Twins had a trade worked out with HOU before the team owner nixed the deal at the last minute. I wouldn’t be surprised if that basically came too late to work out a fair deal somewhere else.

No

Same old result.  2025 Trade deadline acquired prospects.  2026 Trade deadline traded prospects.  Result? A team under .500 in a weak division.  Need better decision makers all around.

The team failed to live up to expectations for 2026.  Reasons=

#1 Injuries to players leading to extended loss of playing time = Abel, Sands, Banda,  Festa, Paredes, Rojas, Acton, Buxton.

#2 Performances below expected levels from = Wallner, Larnach, Buxton, Roden, Martin, Ryan, Adams, Ober, Orze, Rogers.

#3 Poor organizational decision making = A - Keeping Outman on the 26 man roster.  B - Failure to trade Jeffers & acquire MLB ready players. C - Failure to trade Ryan & acquire MLB ready players. D - Taking until mid season to realize that the infield alignment was flawed and making the moves necessary to overhaul that situation which resulted in position changes and necessitating "learning on the fly" at new or relatively unfamiliar positions by players: Lee, Lewis, Keaschall, Clemens.  E - Continuing to believe that Gray was a capable ML Shortstop. F - Delaying the season ending hip surgery on Buxton until the season was shot when it was clear that surgery was the outcome at the time of the All Star Break and depriving players: Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Roden, Mendez of gaining valuable MAJOR LEAGUE outfield experience as well as providing organizational  data on their performance that could be used for player evaluation.  G - Signing Caratini. H - Signing Bell. I - Shortening the 26 man roster by carrying Jackson as a 3rd catcher for two extended periods of time during which he received minimal utilization.

#4 - Having an owner and GM with a deluded opinion of the construction and performance capabilities of the team.

No Pablo all year...so yes.  I wanted answers out of 2026.  Off the top of my head, we now know that Brooks Lee is a keeper.  Matt Wallner is not.  Luke Keaschall is a big time yes.  Larnach is a not anymore.  We know Kalen Culpepper can play.  We know Royce Lewis is what he's chosen to be the last two seasons.  We know Prielipp should be a rotation staple.  We know Taj is a dude.  We know Jeffers is worth re-signing.  We know they can make Buxton part of the 2027 plan but not a focal point of it...same for Joe Ryan.  We know Zebby can handle a starter's workload but still needs to improve.  It's all about educated guesses going forward and we have a lot more information to make the best educated guesses possible.

The 2026 Twins were about what I expected. An average offense, not great defense, average starting pitching, and a terrible bullpen. Overall, a slightly below average but not absolutely terrible team. Looking to 2027, I think the team has their answer about Royce Lewis (not an everyday player). They need to decide what to do with Ryan Jeffers (probably can't sign him) and Joe Ryan (probably should have traded him).  They need to get an arm or two for the bullpen. 

The one nice thing the Twins have going for them is they don't have a lot of guys under long term contracts. According to Sportrac, they have about $113M in payroll commitments for 2027. That number drops to $27M in 2028 (Caratini and Buxton) and then to $0 in 2029. This means the Twins have some financial flexibility in the near future. This makes it at least possible for the Twins to entertain the idea of extending a guy like Joe Ryan or Ryan Jeffers if the price and terms are right.

Getting five more wins than expectations and still missing the playoffs is like getting 55% instead of 50% on a test.  Both scores are still an F.  The Twins FO needs to commit to building a full team in the offseason instead of trying to build the plane in the air.  Why some accept this level of planning from the organization is beyond me.  The team needs a 1B, a C, and likely another rotational bat that can play the OF when Buck inevitably misses 50 games next year.  

The Twins have a single immense enemy.  It keeps them mediocre in every department.  This enemy is the GM office, specifically, Falvey/Zoll (they act so nearly identical that I refer to them as a single person). 

They stunts growth by inane decisions, like trading away all of the BP (even Varland, for absolutely no good reason). 

They further damage the team by not making trades:  for example, not trading Ryan to the Red Sox,for Tolle and Arias (and immense haul) or not trading Jeffers and Larnach.  These moves are routinely made by successful small market teams and lead to sustained success.  

They can't accept past mistakes.  They keep Alex Jackson on the team for nearly the entire season, for an occasional at bat.  No one else wants him, as proven by passing through waivers three times, but they are still afraid of losing him...or maybe he's backup in case they trade Jeffers (which they don't).

They just can't seem to understand their mistakes.  Like pitch hitting Manuel Margot.  They just keep making the same mistake over and over and over.  Hoping some day they get it right.  How many pitchers did they run through the BP?  27!  WTF?  You would think they learn what works and what doesn't at some point.

This franchise will continue to lose games, fans and money until they hire a knowledgeable, experienced GM.  

19 hours ago, StiltedGopher said:

The rest of the world expected the Rays to finish very low in the AL and East.  Their organization didn’t accept that.  
 

Everybody aiming for 73-76 wins needs to go.
 

Exceed expectations, good grief.  Start having expectations    

Thanks for that take. I'm an eternal optimistic and always hope/think that the Twins can compete for a playoff any given year. Although, the last time they truly delivered on my optimism was back in 1991! That said, I really DID think we would be competitive this season, and until the last month of the season we still were in the hunt for a playoff spot. So count me as one of the few who were disappointed by this season. But also count me among those who think we should and could do much better. 

16 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Woods Richardson going 0-7 with an ERA between 7.00-8.00 didn’t help either……..the guy just collapsed.

That may not have doomed our season, but his collapse was a big puzzle and it hurt us. And then after we let him go he ended up being released by how many other teams? What a total fall off the cliff for SWR.

21 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

They beat the people in the expectations busines (Las Vegas) expectation of 73.5 wins.

So they were better 3 1/2 games. 🤔

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Any GM would tell you it is a bad idea to build your team around a 30 year old utility player coming off a career year.

Any GM but one the Twins hire, I guess. My point was that second base isn’t a gaping hole on the field or in the lineup right now. It’s one of the few places where they have someone competent with both a bat and a glove, where they don’t need to take immediate action. No, they don’t need a roster full of over-achieving super-utility guys, but I can’t help thinking such a team still might have done better than this one.

So I’m glad to see Lee somewhere he can play every day, Culpepper at short, and Jenkins and Rodriguez playing in the outfield. Guys like Lewis and Larnach are crying for upgrades, and Keaschall needs to find a home in the field (1B) where his defense isn’t taking away from what his bat is producing.

I’m worried about who’s going to be behind the plate more than who’s going to be playing second base. And the bullpen still needs some improvement as well. Heck, maybe with a reliable defense behind them, we discover some of those bullpen arms are more consistent than we thought.

If there’s money to spend and interest in some of the potential trade bait they have, plug the holes. And when that’s done, then start thinking about upgrades.

22 hours ago, ewen21 said:

I do like Clemens, honestly I do, but no team should be "built around" a career utility player now in his 30s.  That said, I would say we can use more players who share his attitude and work ethic. 

Let me put it another, probably better way: There are other holes to plug before worrying about an upgrade at second base. Clemens is a good defender and reliable hitter—that’s more than they have almost anywhere else on the field right now. So first figure out those other slots and then start thinking about what all-star second baseman wants to play for the Twins.

…or maybe when Marek Houston arrives, he’s at SS and Culpepper moves over to second.