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It's accurate to say the bullpen has been a considerable weakness for the Twins overall, and yet, per Win Probability Added, they have two of the league's four most valuable firemen. Kintzler ranks third in the AL in WPA, trailing only Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel. Rogers is right him behind in fourth place.
After those two, it hasn't been very pretty for the Twins. Tyler Duffey and Buddy Boshers look capable, but should probably both be bumped down a notch on the leverage totem pole. One or two more legit late-inning options would make a world of difference for this unit.
Help could come from within. Belisle and Pressly have shown signs of pulling it together. Trevor Hildenberger and Alan Busenitz look promising. But if we're being honest, this team needs to add from outside if it wants to be any kind of serious player in the final months.
Walking a Fine Line
General manager Thad Levine indicated recently that the club will not "be inclined to spend lavishly on short-term assets," preferring to add only controllable players when giving up a significant return.
That's the right mindset, at least with regard to supplementing the rotation. The front office should be looking for starters it can keep beyond this year rather than going all-in on an extreme longshot.
On the relief side, though, the story is a little different. Such players are volatile commodities, and in the past, Minnesota has been bitten by paying extra for added control with these upgrades. Matt Capps and Kevin Jepsen inescapably come to mind.
So the smart bet is for the Twins to find a rental or two for which they won't have to "spend lavishly." It might mean waiting until August; they've had some success there in the past, acquiring players like Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes in August while giving up little.
Or they could get a bit more aggressive and take a cue from the Nationals.
Eyes on Washington
The Nats laid out the blueprint last week for what a midseason bullpen boost should look like. In a deal with the last-place Athletics, they acquired veterans Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Both are hugely valuable additions, but neither carries the price-inflating closer title. In fact, Washington received the duo on pretty reasonable terms.
For their part, the Nationals sent Oakland Blake Treinen, an inconsistent fireballer much more interesting for a team that can patiently work with him than he is for a contender. (Pressly, anyone?)
The Nats also packaged a pair of good, yet unspectacular, prospects in 19-year-old left-hander Jesus Luzardo and third baseman Sheldon Neuse. For comps in the Twins system, think Lewis Thorpe and Travis Blankenhorn.
Madson and Doolittle both have contracts extending into 2018, which is a little unnerving, but they are a clear cut above the Cappses and Jepsens of the world. Such a deal would fit with Levine's stated desire to bring in help for this year and beyond, while also adding veteran leadership to the pen, and not in the form of Breslisle mediocrity.
Every situation is unique, so who knows if the Twins could pull off something similar, but the bottom line here is that "buying" at the deadline doesn't necessarily mean mortgaging the future. With a savvy approach, you can have it both ways, rewarding this upstart group for exceeding expectations and supporting their efforts to overtake a complacent Cleveland club, while still adhering to a responsible big-picture view.
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