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As our wonderful contributor Matthew Trueblood once wrote, “pitching really is two distinct and disparate tasks: pitching to lefties, and pitching to righties.” A starter like Sonny Gray may exhibit multiple personalities in his craft depending on the platoon; for relievers, the game is a little different. While a starter must vary their method of attack when facing a sub-optimal matchup, bullpen arms can brute force their way through three outs, relying on one of their overwhelming strengths with the occasional changeup, just for fun. Specialty is the name of the game.
Platoons—whether said reliever is facing a lefty or righty—stands as the most apparent input in this equation, but we can dig a little deeper, observe a more granular strategy with modern relievers. We saw glimpses of this new-fangled decision-making process when Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus revealed that the 2021 Giants selected pinch hitters based on swing path and opposing pitch shape. That team won 107 games with a team of Milk Duds and microplastic. It seems the plan may have worked.
What if we reversed the idea? How could a manager manipulate his bullpen to its most ideal form?
This was the question that popped into my head when Rocco Baldelli first called upon his bullpen on Thursday. He beckoned Caleb Thielber to do away with some lefties, but he then had to decide whether Jorge López or Griffin Jax better suited the situation.
For this analysis, we have to eschew traditional forms of sports talk where players exist on a range of “goodness” with Emilio Pagán at the bottom; instead we should consider each pitcher as the owner of a specific set of skills and archetypes. They may range insofar as being able to replicate their strengths, but they’re major leaguers for a reason: they possess some talent in acquiring outs.
First, Jorge López. López’s success in 2022 came off a nasty, boring sinker that swiped the souls of righties while a healthy dose of curveballs and changeups kept lefties honest. All three pitches were tremendous offerings. In comparison, Griffin Jax—Minnesota’s other great bullpen piece—is a slider specialist with a four-seamer and a newly developed cutter. Both pitchers are righties.
Rocco Baldelli decided to keep Caleb Thielbar in to vex the lefty Michael Massey—platoons still reign supreme—before calling in López to face the righty Hunter Dozier and the lefty Kyle Isbel. Dozier hit for a weak 82 wRC+ against righties in 2022 and has been brutally negative against sinkers his entire career; López caught him window shopping on an outside breaking ball. Isbel is a more interesting case. His offensive profile in the majors has been poor overall, but he was unfathomably bad against four-seam fastballs last season. He grounded out against a sinker. Perhaps Rocco was unphased by any threat he offered.
That left Jax for the 8th inning. His first target was Edward Olivares, a righty fairly neutral against all pitches in 2022 but struggled against fastballs and sliders the previous two seasons; he flew out on a solidly-struck liner. Bobby Witt Jr. then stepped in, and promptly worked a five-pitch walk—not surprising given that he performed well against sliders in 2022, although Jax did get squeezed on the final pitch. That’s baseball. M.J. Melendez, who smoked four-seam fastballs last season, then grounded into a double play on a four-seamer down the heart of the plate. That’s baseball.
Did Rocco put his best foot forward? Potentially. Calling in López appeared to be a significant anti-Hunter Dozier measure, but Jax’s matchups in the 8th were far from favorable, arguably just as reasonable a time to save for a few López sinkers. But it was likely his best choice, as Pagán or Jorge Alcalá were his other probable selections.
And there’s even more to the decision-making process than just science! Bullpen management is part political, a dash of art, and a sprinkle of, even in todays game, some classic gut feelings. Matchups are fun, but players are still humans after all, and Rocco has to navigate the murky waters of relationships and egos while still winning ballgames.
It’s a tough life for a manager; dealing with relief pitchers, as Bruce Springsteen may have once said in 1982, is just winners and losers, and “don’t get caught on the wrong side of that line.” You can have the best options in and still get burned or you could find the correct answer by plugging in the wrong equation altogether. In any case, it worked for Rocco as the Twins held onto a shutout during their opening day victory.
Oh, and Jhoan Duran pitched the 9th because he’s Zeus in the flesh.
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