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    Breaking Good: Positive Vibes At The All-Star Break


    Nick Nelson

    The first three months of this 2016 season were forgettable to say the least. But here in July, as we head into the All-Star break, the Minnesota Twins are finally starting to show some positive signs.

    In fact, there are more than you might suspect. Let's run through some of the things we can feel good about during baseball's midsummer respite.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today

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    1. The Twins are finally hitting like we hoped they would.

    The optimistic view of this team, entering the season, was that a powerful offense and adequate pitching staff could make them competitive. That did not come to fruition for much of the first half, but over the past few weeks it has. In their past 20 games, the Twins have gone 12-8 while averaging 6.7 runs, hitting .288/.357/.510 with 32 homers. Five of those wins have come against a Texas team with the AL's best record. It's too little, too late for this year's squad, already buried by 20 games in the AL Central, but splendid to see nonetheless.

    2. No stopping Nunez.

    Regardless of how you view the sustainability of Eduardo Nunez's brilliance, this has clearly been a great development. Nunez was a non-tender candidate in the offseason as a decent hitter with no real defensive position, but now he'll represent Minnesota in the All Star Game on Tuesday. It's a well deserved honor, because the 29-year-old has been legitimately excellent and continues to show no signs of slowing down. He has turned himself into much more of an asset than anyone would have suspected.

    3. Miguel Sano is back at third base and hitting.

    I don't think I'm going out on a limb when I say that Sano is the most important piece in the Twins lineup. He was heating up before going down with a hamstring strain at the end of May, with four homers in six games leading up to the injury, and has picked up nicely since returning by posting a .929 OPS with three homers and nine RBI in 10 games. Plus, he's back at the position where he belongs and making some slick plays. It'll be interesting to see what happens when Trevor Plouffe returns from the DL.

    4. Max Kepler has been wunderbar!

    We've grown accustomed to introductory struggles from highly touted young talents. Maybe that's why Kepler's initial surge has been so shocking. Or maybe it's because it is truly astonishing to see a wiry 23-year-old teeing off against major-league pitchers the way he has. Through 46 games in his first real taste MLB competition, Kepler has an .802 OPS, with a 600-PA pace for 29 homers and 121 RBI.

    5. Pitching reinforcements continue to reinforce readiness.

    Obviously, pitching is the area where Minnesota has the furthest to go in order to return to respectability. The jury is out on pretty much every one of their starters, and the bullpen is an amorphous mystery. So it is good news that the organization's best prospects for each unit are doing all the right things. J.T. Chargois pitched in the All-Star Futures Game on Sunday night at Petco Park. Jose Berrios will represent Rochester at the Triple-A All-Star Game on Wednesday in Charlotte.

    Each has fizzled during brief MLB stints this year, but they are showing every sign of mastery at the highest level of the minors. We will likely see both back in Minnesota soon, and the second half will a provide a relatively low-leverage setting to learn the ropes. If both catch on, the outlook for the 2017 team brightens immensely.

    6. Robbie Grossman looks like a find.

    Grossman has now been with the Twins for nearly two full months. His initial hot-hitting period has long since worn off. Since a scorching first couple of weeks with the new club, his BABIP has come down to Earth and his average has dropped precipitously. Yet, after 195 plate appearances, the switch-hitting outfielder still has a .421 on-base percentage. He shows the ability to stay productive offensively even while his bat sags, and that's invaluable for a part-time/bench role.

    7. Sophomore slump-busters?

    Following an impressive rookie showing in 2014, Kennys Vargas endured a dreadful second season that included a demotion straight to Double-A. He was never in consideration for a roster spot this spring and appeared to be on the verge of exiting Minnesota's plans. He wasn't hitting much at Triple-A this year, but he was showing a much improved approach, just as he did last year in Rochester. That has translated thus far during his latest stint in the majors, as Vargas has five walks and two strikeouts through 23 plate appearances. The 25-year-old's power is undeniable and has been on display with all eight of his hits going for extra bases. If he's controlling the strike zone he is a weapon with dominant offensive ability.

    Then, there's Eddie Rosario. He's still amidst his sophomore season, which started out with a thud as he limped to a .532 OPS in April and May. He went to Triple-A, raked to the tune of an .881 OPS in 41 games, and has gone 12-for-31 with five extra-base hits since being recalled. He is rarely whiffing. I know some people will forever be skeptical of Rosario due to his overt and often hazardous aggressiveness, but if you acknowledge that he'll never be a patient hitter he is doing everything you could ask for right now.

    8. A fledgling power pen?

    If Trevor May, Ryan Pressly and Michael Tonkin hold their pre-break K paces through the end of the year, here's where they would finish on the Twins leaderboard for strikeouts by a reliever since 2009, Joe Nathan's last full season as closer:

    1. Michael Tonkin: 98

    2. Trevor May: 81

    3. Ryan Pressly: 81

    4. Glen Perkins, 2012: 78

    5. Glen Perkins, 2013: 77

    6. Casey Fien, 2013: 73

    7. Anthony Swarzak, 2013: 69

    8. Glen Perkins, 2011: 65

    9. Jesse Crain, 2010: 62

    10. Jared Burton, 2013: 61

    There's been nothing fluky about the achievement of these impressive and, in recent history, unprecedented strikeout totals for the back-end relievers. May, Pressly and Tonkin all bring upper 90s gas, and blow people away when they're on. Obviously, the results for each have been uneven, but seeing the Twins rank in the top half of the majors in bullpen K/9 is a remarkable and much-needed turnaround.

    This unit actually might have the makings of a power pen, especially with arms like Chargois and Nick Burdi on the way.

    9. Tyler Duffey looks to be straightened out.

    What to make of Duffey's month-long skid from May 20th through June 21st, in which he was clobbered for a 9.17 ERA over seven starts, pushing him to the brink of a demotion? It's hard to say, but it is the lone stretch of poor performance that he's had over the past two seasons, and he seems to have moved past it. Duffey has won three straight starts with a 2.25 ERA, averaging a strikeout per inning. His rebound certainly counters the narrative that he was a ticking time bomb once big-league hitters figured out his curve.

    10. Something has gotten into Kurt Suzuki.

    After going 3-for-5 with a pair of doubles on Sunday, Suzuki is now hitting .294/.332/.447. Among AL catchers with 200 plate appearances, his .294 average ranks first and his .778 OPS third. If one of the catchers on the All-Star roster were to come up with an injury, Suzuki would have a very legit claim as the top replacement option. This from a guy who was one of the worst starting catchers in the game last year, and entered this June with a .559 OPS.

    The rejuvenation bolsters Suzuki's value as a trade chip, especially given the dire nature of the catcher position around the league. The Twins might not be inclined to move him though. They have nothing – and I mean nothing – in place behind the plate for 2017. The idea of activating Suzuki's $6 million option now suddenly seems rather appealing. Way more than it did a month ago, anyway.

    ~~~

    This isn't merely scrounging for silver linings among the muck. These developments are truly encouraging and optimism inspiring. The first half was largely a grim spectacle for Twins fans but as we reflect here during the midway breather, there really are a lot of factors to feel pretty dang good about based on the way things are trending.

    What others would you add to the list?

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    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    re: Duffey

     

    a. he still cannot get past the 6th inning

    b. his "improvement" the last month is due to a .235 BABIP in that time.  His K/9 dropped to 6.9, however during that period; both facts are pretty bothersome.

    c. but the most bothersome facts is that if you asked 20 people in the game, 18 (*) would tell you that they'd rather have May than Duffey (and his one pitch) in the rotation, because Duffey is better suited for the pen and can actually be pretty good there...  

     

    (*) the other two are either working or rooting for the Twins

     

     

    re: Duffey

     

    a. He was lousy for a long while there. Now, when you look at his decent starts, he's giving us what we should expect from a decent start. I see IP's of 6,6,8,6.2, 7,7. I think it's fair to expect better than 6 innings most of the time, in other words. Duffey doesn't present us with a problem of running out of gas. He presented an even bigger problem though, and that was short starts when he was going bad. The point being made in here was that perhaps he's put those inconsistencies behind him.

    Unless the Twins rid themselves of Tommy Milone and Rickey Nolasco and bring up Berrios things won't be better for the Twins. I do see the youngsters are really starting to contribute offensively, but until the weak links in the rotation are let go, it will be the same old in the second half of the season.

    In regards to management sticking with the status quo if these young...and still getting younger...Twins have a quality 2nd half; I'm not convinced that would be the case.

     

    For starters, this makes 5 90+ loss seasons out of 6 (probably). Further, management has already been on record saying they are taking a hard look at the organization from the FO on down.

     

    Additionally, even a strong 2nf half can't erase such a poor and mismanaged 1st half. If anything, it might reflect just how poorly the initial roster construction really was.

     

    I say enjoy the kids, enjoy Berrios, Chargois, Polanco and anyone else still to come up, and realize the dreaded "rebuild" that Ryan won't utter is actually taking place. We'll see how it all plays out.

     

    Nunez is still "a decent hitter with no real defensive position."  He's an all-star for the same reason he's our starting SS.  Somebody has to be.

    Eduardo Nunez has the same Fangraphs WAR as Edwin Encarnacion and Miguel Cabrera. He's an All Star because he's been really good.

     

    I think the keeping Suzuki vs. trading him is a moot point since he has very little chance of vesting his 2017 option by getting 485 at bats.

    Let's be clear on this: It's a team option that becomes guaranteed if he hits that PA total. The Twins have the choice of activating it if they please regardless of his playing time. 

    The Twins would be crazy not to trade Suzuki.  If they want him back next year, they will get him back as a starting catcher and pay him more than another team will pay for a backup.

     

    The Twins would be crazy to trade Buxton.  We've just seen the tip of the iceberg on this kid and that kind of speed is game changing.  It allows your corners to play a step or two closer to the line and turn doubles into singles.  It's like having a SS with an extra step of range and a rocket for an arm.

     

    I'm in favor of trading any pitcher north of 30.  Plouffe should be traded, but I don't see the market for him.  He's going to be tough to find a spot for especially if the young guys like Vargas continue to produce.

     

    Dozier?  I have no confidence in the FO getting good value for him.  I'd keep him.

    Edited by gocgo

     

    Nunez is still "a decent hitter with no real defensive position."  He's an all-star for the same reason he's our starting SS.  Somebody has to be.

     

    Harsh.

     

    If a leadoff hitter posts a stat line of .321 AVG / 22 HR / 74 RBI / 41 SB (which is what Nunez is currently on pace for), I'd say most would call those "All-Star caliber" numbers.

    Harsh.

     

    If a leadoff hitter posts a stat line of .321 AVG / 22 HR / 74 RBI / 41 SB (which is what Nunez is currently on pace for), I'd say most would call those "All-Star caliber" numbers.

    If that line was for Hicks or Arcia I expect the HOF discussions would be in progress.

    Great article. So nice to read something positive, which we can finally do since they have been "watchable" lately and maybe the future isn't still 3-5 years off. I agree with all of the positives, especially getting Sano back at third, Max showing power in left, and Berrios back up. I like Vargas' ABs so far, exhibiting patience yet turning on pitches he can hit. He seems to be a good clubhouse guy who keeps everyone loose. 

     

    Palka is really producing now at AAA, with 23 HRs and 67 RBIs, and he's not even on the 40-man roster. I would really like to see what Polanco can do for an extended time with the big league club, but Dozier is playing so well I can wait. Let's pray these positive vibes last a lot longer. I haven't even thought about the Vikings for like two weeks.

    Another Positive is Buxton, up until his contusion, was starting to turn a corner.  The K rate was dropping, he was making solid contact more often and starting to drive the ball consistently. 

     

    Positively dreaming of an outfield of Rosario/Grossman - Buxton - Kepler.

     

     

    Nunez is tied for 33rd in WAR for AL position players because defense counts too.  How many position players originally make an All Star team (before all the injuries start knocking them out)?  A player can be having a good season and still not be more worthy of an All Star spot than players who are more deserving that don't make it.

     

    Examples:

     

    Longoria.  Tied for 10th in WAR, not on the All Star team..

    Kyle Seager. 14th in WAR, not on All Star team.

    Kipnis (tied for 15th), Kinsler (tied for 15th), Correa (17th). Pedroia (18th). None on the All Star team.  

     

    And if it's just about offense, Kinsler, Seager and Longoria (along with some other IFs not on the All Star team ) ahead of Nunez in wRC+.

    Edited by jimmer

    It has been fun to watch the Twins these past couple weeks. The young players are showing exciting things and vets are rebuilding trade value as hoped. I hope we take advantage of the increased trade value and don't fall for fools gold. One exception, I keep Irvin Santana. Without him we go way to thin on SP.

     

    I keep playing Vargas at first and place Mauer on the bench.

    Some debby downers always have to complain about something, and now someone is complaining that we beat the Rangers 3 of 4 because their staff is lousy.  Well, for the last several years it seemed like every time we faced some not so hot pitcher we made him look like Cy Young. What's next?

     

    Some debby downers always have to complain about something, and now someone is complaining that we beat the Rangers 3 of 4 because their staff is lousy.  Well, for the last several years it seemed like every time we faced some not so hot pitcher we made him look like Cy Young. What's next?

     

    I know, right. How could anyone be down on this team? Whether it's this year, or going back to 2011, it's getting ridiculous how fans are nitpicking the team's performance. 

    My biggest fears are that with typical Twin's luck we will play just well enough to move from the #1 pick to #6 or worse. This will also give the F O the ability to tell owners that it's finally coming together so let's not change now.

     

    If we know one thing it's the fact that these owners like nothing more than not making decisions. The recent $30 million (approximate) gift for selling 35 % of MLB,com to Disney, has to have them thinking life is good, why would we screw with anything? Let's face it, those, generations of owners' down stream relatives are being fully vested by the Twin's cash cow.

    first time poster: been following along time.

     

     

    Why trade dozier we know what he is about. He will bat 250-270 and hit 15-25 homers a year and play solid defense.

     

    Polanco is unknown. The best case scenario which is playing out is we are out of it September 1st, we bring polanco up and he plays 5 out of 7 days between short and 2nd.

     

    The front office was blasted for trading revere and span known commodities and giving hicks the starting job. Now everyone wants to do that again with polanco?

     

    How many 2nd baseman would you rather have than dozier? I can think of one really when you factor in salary and age and that is kipnis.

     

    first time poster: been following along time.


    Why trade dozier we know what he is about. He will bat 250-270 and hit 15-25 homers a year and play solid defense.

    Polanco is unknown. The best case scenario which is playing out is we are out of it September 1st, we bring polanco up and he plays 5 out of 7 days between short and 2nd.

    The front office was blasted for trading revere and span known commodities and giving hicks the starting job. Now everyone wants to do that again with polanco?

    How many 2nd baseman would you rather have than dozier? I can think of one really when you factor in salary and age and that is kipnis.

    Carpenter and Altuve by a considerable margin but your point is still valid and Carpenter is playing 3B now but could play 2B.  Regardless,  I have not seen anyone suggest Polanco is clearly a better option.  However, provided the right return, trading Dozier could be an important part of building contender.  Trading a very good players was instrumental to the rebuilding process for the Royals, Cubs, Mets, Pirates, Orioles, Astros, and probably a could others I cant think of right now.  

     

    I would prefer to trade Nunez and use Polanco in his role but the return wont be an impact player unless we get very lucky.  

    Edited by Major Leauge Ready

     

    Harsh.

     

    If a leadoff hitter posts a stat line of .321 AVG / 22 HR / 74 RBI / 41 SB (which is what Nunez is currently on pace for), I'd say most would call those "All-Star caliber" numbers.

    IF.  Until IF becomes reality its just IF.  Just for fun and games I urge you to check out Brian Dozier's post 2015 All-Star Game stat line.  Or, for even more fun, check out Bryan LaHair's (yeah, I know) post  2012 All-Star Game CAREER.  None of which takes away from the fact that Nunez is still a marginal defensive player at best and that if he's still our starting SS 2 years from now we'll be well on our way to another 90 loss season.

     

    first time poster: been following along time.


    Why trade dozier we know what he is about. He will bat 250-270 and hit 15-25 homers a year and play solid defense.

    Polanco is unknown. The best case scenario which is playing out is we are out of it September 1st, we bring polanco up and he plays 5 out of 7 days between short and 2nd.

    The front office was blasted for trading revere and span known commodities and giving hicks the starting job. Now everyone wants to do that again with polanco?

    How many 2nd baseman would you rather have than dozier? I can think of one really when you factor in salary and age and that is kipnis.

    I think most that want Dozier traded would like to see it for reasons that aren't knocking Dozier at all, myself included.  The very reasons you state are what makes him valuable on the trade market.  He could bring a decent to nice return, which would help rebuild this team faster.  There also happens to be a top prospect in waiting that the organization has pegged at 2B.  Those are the same reasons that Span and Revere were traded, it just didn't work out with Hicks.  The returns on those deals is still up for debate as well.  IMO, those deals were good at the time and either still are or can be.

     

    The other factor in this is that the team has squandered Polanco's options.  They don't know what he can do at the major league level.  This scenario has shades of Arcia, which a great many posters don't want to see repeated, again myself included.  

     

    In order for a team in the situation the Twins are in, trading valuable veterans to bring in young talent and free up space for their in-house prospects is what needs to be done in order to revitalize things.  I'm of the opinion that Dozier won't be a primary piece when this team becomes a legitimate competitor again, so why not use him to better the franchise now and in the future?

     

    IF.  Until IF becomes reality its just IF.  Just for fun and games I urge you to check out Brian Dozier's post 2015 All-Star Game stat line.  Or, for even more fun, check out Bryan LaHair's (yeah, I know) post  2012 All-Star Game CAREER.  None of which takes away from the fact that Nunez is still a marginal defensive player at best and that if he's still our starting SS 2 years from now we'll be well on our way to another 90 loss season.

     

    The point is that Nunez's 1st half numbers are All-Star caliber. I merely cited his projected full-season stats to better illuminate just how good his current numbers are. As for Nunez being the catalyst for future 90-loss seasons, I'm just simply going to strongly disagree and leave it at that.

    Echoing many of the sentiments.   This season will be a success if we realign the roster to place players in their optimal positions, and construct a lineup that has youth, speed, depth and a future.

     

    There are (again, as pointed out in various posts) a handful of moves that will straighten this out.    1) trade Suzuki, bring up Murphy; we will have 3 catchers on our 40-man next year with Turner and Garver regardless of what happens with Centeno; no room for 5 and no room for an aging, nice, weak-framer who can't throw anyone out in the team of the future;   2) Infield should consist of Mauer, Escobar, Sano, Polanco, and either Santana or Beresford as 5th, which means trading Nunez, Plouffe and Dozier;   3) Outfield is Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, with Grossman.  Bench, 2nd catcher, Santana/Beresford, Palka/ABW, Vargas/Park.    3) Starting pitching, I think we keep Gibson (hard to find another with a brighter future for more cost control), Santana, Duffey, and utilize Berrios and May; means jettisoning Nolasco and Milone, with Hughes as long-relief, 6th starter, potential of Jay, Meyer, and others.   The hope is that the trade of Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, Nolasco, Milone, Suzuki frees up enough money to sign a frontline young starter. as most should be traded for high-upside low minors prospects who don't need a 40-man spot in the next year.    4) Bullpen is fungible; trade Abad, dump Ramirez, keep the rest, with a long dash of Chargois, Wimmers, plus the existing Kintzler, Pressley, Rogers, Tonkin, and the notion of Hughes, Perkins, Dean, and others on the horizon, along with a handful of other rising arms or free agent acquisitions.

     

    This backs us up in every position, all with young speed, puts everyone in their natural positions, and makes this a team worth watching the rest of this year and all of next, with a decreased payroll even after signing a top-of-the-order guy.

    It's been fun playing Texas, I'd like to see the positives continue a bit longer before we buy in too much, but it's been a nice small sample.  

     

    Grossman, Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler is a nice foursome but we really need Buxton to take the next step. 

     

    Vargas has looked legit since coming back, his approach at the plate has been wonderful to see.  He looks like a totally different guy up there.  (Other than, along with Sano, looking more like a WWE tag team than baseball players)

     

    I'd really like to see Polanco get some playing time the rest of the season.  Fit him in somehow.

     

     

    The point is that Nunez's 1st half numbers are All-Star caliber. I merely cited his projected full-season stats to better illuminate just how good his current numbers are. As for Nunez being the catalyst for future 90-loss seasons, I'm just simply going to strongly disagree and leave it at that.

    Focusing on offensive numbers and ignoring defensive shortcomings, especially at the SS position, is the type of thing that leads to those 90 loss seasons.  And I didn't say Nunez would be a catalyst for future 90 loss seasons but failure to improve that spot defensively would contribute.

    Edited by dxpavelka



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