Believe in Byron Buxton

I think we can all agree that any discussion of "floor" goes out the window when you're talking about seasons utterly demolished by injuries. I recognize that Buxton's style of play makes him more injury-prone than others but I don't expect to see him play 28 MLB games in a season often.

 

 

I laid out a vision in the blueprint linked in the article. Basically it calls for aggressive early raises, while the Twins have financial flexibility, and then reasonable salaries on the back end. 

I guess I'd be OK with that.  Twins wasted close to that much on Ricky Nolasco, without the potential upside.

This is off subject a little bit, but I wonder with technology as it is today, if there could be a way to test/improve pitch recognition.  Say with high speed cameras and some sort of device held in the hand,  have the player stand in the batters box, no bat or anything, and just try to recognize the pitch. That way they are not worrying about any swing mechanics or anything like that, just pitch recognition. Have multiple buttons for FB CB CH SL  and have the device synched to the cameras to see how quickly and accurately the player distinguishes the pitch.  Maybe it could pick up that one particular pitch gives them problems or all non FB pitches, or whatever. Just thinking out loud, probably not workable or maybe they have some variation of this already. probably just a another dumb idea by me.

Buxton's 2018 performance would be career ending for 95% of baseball players.  We have to keep that in perspective.

 

I still believe he can be a good player, but another year like this one and he's done. Another below average year and it's time to adjust our expectations.

I believe he still has another option year, so you can still leave him in AAA this year if he doesn't show anything this spring.  Even if he is a .150 to .200 hitter after this year, his defense and speed would still be valuable as a 4th outfielder and would buy you time to see if he develops.  So I would hate to see the Twins just lose him because I don't see any way you would get him through waivers.

But I would rather risk having him turn into a star and you had to pay him an additional $50 million, than giving him $50 million now and hoping he turns into a star.

Byron Buxton: Bunting for doubles. Heck, he probable reaches first before anybody even touches the ball. I don't recall seeing anybody as fast as Byron; maybe Rickey Henderson.

He tied for the 10th best WAR among AL hitters this year, and led a team that won 100 games. 

Not on Baseball Reference, but going on that, Isn't Buxton a superstar?

According to Baseball Reference Buxton's 2017 is higher than Hicks 2018.

He went to the Yanks in 2016 and was terrible, in 2017 he played all of 88 games, last year he managed to play 137 and was really, really good. But I am not ready to call him a super star.

And lets be honest most wanted him gone in 2015 and if he would have played the same for the Twins 2016 as he did the Yanks, we would have been screaming for him to be gone.

The other question is would Hicks have developed into anything close to a decent player in Minnesota?

I know people that are friends with Ron Gardenhire and he actually has (or had) a place that is pretty close to my house on Fort Myers Beach, and perhaps in some ways he was an ok manager.  

But for the Minnesota Twins of 2011- 2014, he was the worst possible manager for the team to have.  A crabby guy who did not put up with any mistakes young players made who wuld rather play an old mediocrity that work with phenomenal athletes with upside like Aaron Hicks.

You're ignoring that players are no longer doing this.......they just aren't. You can project how you'd feel all you want, but just look at the last three or four years. 

 

30/31 and older is now prime? On a site where people say all the time NOT to sign guys into their mid-30s, now it is a good idea? I'm confused by that sentence. In a league that is getting younger and younger? I don't see that.

I would normally agree, Mike. However, most of the players receiving extension offers are players with a higher probability of success. Buxton is a bit of a unique case. I think most of us believe he can still be a superstar but there is a also a pretty significant chance he is a 4th outfielder. It's an unusually uncertain case with a wide differential between floor and ceiling. Turning down $40 or 50M would be quite gutsy as of today. It would be an extremely aggressive play on the Twins part.

Buxton is super 2, not arb 1, I get it. The point is that extra year came at the cost of trust. Money doesn’t fix trust.

Maybe, maybe not.

It was a business decision.

Plenty of people are capable of understanding business decisions are not personal. Others take it personally and never get over it.

I don't think either one of us knows Buxton enough to know which one he is.

Regarding Buxton and injuries: Paul Molitor was injured frequently early in his career. Once he got past those years and played regularly he flourished. I can see the same happening with Buxton. I'm not saying extend him now, but I am saying the time will come to extend him, and soon.

4 pages and not 1 poster said they wanted to give up on Buxton. He's never been the site thing his minor league stats implied. Shops still had concerns about the setting and miss to his game and his pitch recognition. His power is natural but his swing never really has been.

I'm not against a reasonable extention, but if he says no, I'm not against a reasonable trade package either. More than jrm mind you.

This is one of the most positive stories I've read about any single player.  Case well-stated.

I have not given up on Buxton;  however, until he shows some consistency, an extension will be ill-advised.

 

The two things are not mutually exclusive.   The Twins have bigger fish to fry at this point (pitching - pitching - pitching) to make them competitive, than a Buxton extension.

 

A Buxton extension will do nothing for them in 2019.  Cross that bridge when you have to, and Rosario, Berrios, Sano should be ahead of Buxton in the extension lines because of service time.

An extension at this point makes zero sense.  Why reward him at this juncture?  To show "loyalty" to him?  Inferiority complex much??

It also sends the wrong message to other players.  If we are going to climb out of the abysss then players need to earn their keep based on merit.  As mentioned, besides the lack of consistency, the injury factor looms large.  Add to it his propensity to run into things + the migraine issue.

All the potential and positive thinking in the world amounts to nothing, as #3 aptly put it

He just doesn’t appear to have a feel for hitting. A guy like Robbie Grossman in no way has the athletic ability of Buxton but he has a feel for hitting. I would say no long term extension until he demonstrates the ability to hit for a respectable average.

This is hard for me to fathom. Buxton's floor is basically a solid regular with elite defensive value and minimal offensive contribution. Sano's floor is... I dunno. Chris Carter? Worse? He has nothing to fall back on if he's not an outstanding hitter. Furthermore, only one of those guys has ever given any reason to question his drive, focus and commitment.

Buxton’s floor is a 4 OPS+.

Regarding Buxton and injuries: Paul Molitor was injured frequently early in his career. Once he got past those years and played regularly he flourished. I can see the same happening with Buxton. I'm not saying extend him now, but I am saying the time will come to extend him, and soon.

Molitor was injured for parts of his 4th and almost all of his 7th seasons in the league.

His first three seasons he had batting averages of .273, .322 and .304. and was an all-star player in his 3rd season.  IN his 5th season he hit .302 and scored 136 runs.

So, actually being succesful when he was healthy in the early part of his career is what separates Molitor from Buxton.

While I think the Twins need to figure out how to essentially rehabilitate Buxton to get him to reach the level of a slightly below average MLB hitter, a major contract extension would be a ridiculous move.