2023 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread

I really like what they did in the first 5 rounds getting a lot of upside with their HS picks.

I'm not sure I see as much obvious upside in their 6-10 picks as they have gotten in past years, but it's never easy to see it ahead of time.

If history is a guide, they will still find someone today that turns into a developmental success. The best so far:

2022 - Cossetti, 11th, Culpepper, 13th

2021 - Festa, 13th, Nowlin, 19th

2019 - Varland, 15th, Julien, 18th*

2018 - Funderburk, 15th

2017 - Ober, 12th

Still not clear how much mlb value they will get from most. 2018 might be the one miss, but Funderburk still looks like he could be a decent mlb reliever. *Julien was rated/paid more like a 3rd/4th rounder but they still managed to get him on day 3.

I don't think these success stories happen without the developmental structure put in place by the current front office. I think there is some fair criticism of some of their scouting and decision making at the top of the draft, though I'm not sure how much worse their misses are than the average team.

Mlb.com noted that the Twins have never gone over their draft pool when signing players. I have wondered if they might find this draft to be deep enough for it to be worthwhile. With all of the HS picks they could already be bumping up against their pool, but they would have around an extra $700K to spend before losing picks next year. With the tax it's basically the amount of money to sign a pretty mediocre veteran.

It doesn't seem like any team has decided to blow through their pool yet, though maybe we could see it today with a few of the remaining HS players. I don't really expect the Twins to be the team to do it but it's still an interesting thing to watch for.

I think the Winokur pick is intriguing.  A 6'5" 60 runner with a strong arm and they have him at 55 power but he could easily be 60 IMO.  Plate discipline and hit tool are the weakest link but still they rated average at 50 so if he can make some improvement's there they have a 5 tool player in the third round.  That would be a huge pick if he turns out.

Watching him in video though he kind of almost looks athletically clumsy or maybe a better way to say it is not smooth.  It looks like he is still growing into his body but this is a big kid.  Kind of a frame like Judge.  Not as muscular yet but just a big guy.  If he does figure things out at the plate and that's not easy, he is a first round talent taken in the third round.

I think he might be a bit slow to develop as he fills out his body and adjusts to pro pitching but again a big "if", that hit tool hits he looks as good or better to me than Jenkins. I like that type of pick in the 3rd round.  if he is Cavaco with the bat then no big deal.  If he hits then he has all the tools to be an all star player.

I think this pick takes time but really do love the potential.  I hope he reaches it.

Good points Dman.  I agree with everything except that he might be as good or better than than Jenkins.  I disagree there.  But he certainly has the potential to be a 5-Tool player.  His hit tool needs work but he's got the arm of a RF.  If Jenkins eventually lands in RF a big arm like Winokur has would be outstanding in LF.  An excellent 3rd round choice.  

I think the Twins were probably "tempted" to take Jack Hurley with their 3rd pick, but after taking 2 OF's decided Keaschall was a better pick for balance.  Sure seems like we pick almost exclusively RH pitchers.  Finally got a lefty with Dunn.  

I did find it interesting that most teams in our division took a fair number of high school players especially early the in draft.  Very surprised that Detroit went with 5 HS players with their first 11 picks. the most of any AL Central team.  The Twins took 4, The Royals 3, Cleveland 2 with 1 JC and Chicago just 1 with 1 JC.  

I kind of thought Detroit would go college heavy especially for bats as they need help there but I guess Clark could be a fast mover so almost like a college pick?  Detroit is getting competitive and I thought they would focus on fast movers but I guess like us they are building for the long haul.

I didn't understand KC's draft at all and taking a high school catcher that high seemed very risky to me but if the bat works out it will be a good pick it is just that so often it doesn't.

Surprising Cleveland didn't go as heavy on pitching in the top 11 as they focused on value bats in the later rounds.  they did steal Clemmey the lefty pitcher I was hoping the Twins were gonne grab in the second round.  They took two strong upside shots in rounds 2 and 2B on pitching and then focused in on position players as most other teams started focusing on pitching.

Chicago seemed all in on fast moving college players. Guessing they will plan on trading players at the deadline and work on a quick restock of talent and see if it plays better this time around.  Still a lot of talent on that team so I guess that makes sense.  Like the Twins 6 of their 10 picks were pitchers.

With a deep draft the whole Central got better heck all of MLB got better with a very solid top 100 this year.  Gonna need our picks to work out well to weather that storm.  Hoping for good health and fast development for this Twins draft with 10 more players to go hopefully they find a couple more gems in that mix.

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I think the Winokur pick is intriguing.  A 6'5" 60 runner with a strong arm and they have him at 55 power but he could easily be 60 IMO.  Plate discipline and hit tool are the weakest link but still they rated average at 50 so if he can make some improvement's there they have a 5 tool player in the third round.  That would be a huge pick if he turns out.

Watching him in video though he kind of almost looks athletically clumsy or maybe a better way to say it is not smooth.  It looks like he is still growing into his body but this is a big kid.  Kind of a frame like Judge.  Not as muscular yet but just a big guy.  If he does figure things out at the plate and that's not easy, he is a first round talent taken in the third round.

I think he might be a bit slow to develop as he fills out his body and adjusts to pro pitching but again a big "if", that hit tool hits he looks as good or better to me than Jenkins. I like that type of pick in the 3rd round.  if he is Cavaco with the bat then no big deal.  If he hits then he has all the tools to be an all star player.

I think this pick takes time but really do love the potential.  I hope he reaches it.

I noticed the awkward movements too. Is it just me or does he remind you a little of Hunter Pence? 

I very much believe the Twins got sniped in the 3rd round with Arizona picking Hurley 2 picks before their pick.  With that being said I will be curious how Winokur does.  He has a compact swing so should have better contact.  On second note I feel this draft is deeper on the pitching side than the last couple of years.   Here is my take. 

3. Winokur- has a fairly high ceiling.  He is a strong athlete,  compact clean swing,  will likely move up well throughout the organization.  Then we will see if he stalls out in AAA like some of our previous slugger picks or can punch through.  

4.  Tanner Hall -  honestly I think this is the safest pick of the draft that will make it to the big leagues in some capacity.  He is already a heck of a pitcher with solid deception,  his fastball is just a little on the low side.  If the coaches can find 4-5 more miles per an hour he is potentially a #2 or #3 type pitcher.   As stated before, Cleveland was also very interested in him.  

5. Questad- already has good velocity,  will just need to refine his pitches some more.  High upside, and with our coaching in A and A+ ball I feel this is a really good gamble.  Again I feel like the potential of a #2 #3 type pitcher.  

6.  Harry -  I like the player I like the quiet hands,  I just think he is likely fairly maxed out,  I hope not.  He appears to be a high effort player.  I don't see the upside of someone like Ortega taking the previous year.  

7.  Santos - I am thinking he is a senior sign.  Good strikeout numbers, not great competition,  but I think is something the Twins can work with. 

8. Stoffal-  only and 8 SO/9 - but prior to his injury was pitching lights out for the Ducks and against strong competition prior to his injury.  He seems like a Hall-light type of pick that the Twins can improve mechanics a bit and have a strong starter, just doesn't have as much games under his belt. 

9.  Dougherty-  A previous 12 and 13 SO/9 prior to this year.  Has some strike out ability but struggled as pitcher this year. Honestly I have the least amount of confidence in this and the Santos pick.  I will be curious to see how much both sign for and whether in matches where I think these 2 are in the pecking order. 

10. Dunn - a left handed pitcher with 3 very strong pitches, but lacking some command.  This is a high upside pick and likely one the Twins save some money for. 

Between Hall, Questad, Stoffal and Dunn - I think the Twins picked 4 very strong arms that have pretty good odds at doing well in the organization.  Not all of them will hit, but I could see 2-3 hit with Hall Questad and Dunn all having pretty high ceilings.    Dougherty and Santos are both a wait and see situation.  They could surprise but right now I don't have quite as much confidence in.  

For the bats on day 2 it begins and end with Winokur for me (no offense to Harry).  He has the athletic ability, size and compact swing with power that has the possibility of being a decent major league player to possible an all star.  

As to day 3  I am cautiously optimistic.  Yes the Twins have found diamonds in the rough in these rounds, but two, I do think this draft is about 100 prospects deeper due to the truncated 2020 draft and just a tad deeper class overall.  What does that mean?  I am hoping for a draft similar to 2019 where they are finding solid prospects throughout the day.  I don't expect to have a top 4-5 rounder get picked in the 18th round like Julien, but I do expect a strong day.  I think it will be more of split on hitting and pitching. I fully expect 2 catchers to be picked based on their previous draft strategies, likely another infielder and outfielder and possibly find another HS player willing to take a chance on the MLB similar to Omari Daniel.   I won't be paying attention to each pick like yesterday, but will be curious to see what they end up with.  

I love the strategy of swinging for the fences on some hs kids that may have 5 tools. The college pitchers look solid enough to develop so it seems like a huge win.  We have a couple $M more pool money than usual and the 4th most in the league. I see no reason to spend over that amount. 10 more picks is where you separate your scouting abilities from other teams. Im confident that 2-3 future major leaguers will be found by our scouting team today. 

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Watching him in video though he kind of almost looks athletically clumsy or maybe a better way to say it is not smooth.  It looks like he is still growing into his body but this is a big kid.  Kind of a frame like Judge.  Not as muscular yet but just a big guy.  If he does figure things out at the plate and that's not easy, he is a first round talent taken in the third round.

That's too funny.  I was literally thinking the same thing when I was watching video of him.  I like the pick as well and also think he's still growing into his body/frame.  Could be a really interesting player if/when he puts it all together.  Should be fun .

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I think the Winokur pick is intriguing.  A 6'5" 60 runner with a strong arm and they have him at 55 power but he could easily be 60 IMO.  Plate discipline and hit tool are the weakest link but still they rated average at 50 so if he can make some improvement's there they have a 5 tool player in the third round.  That would be a huge pick if he turns out.

Watching him in video though he kind of almost looks athletically clumsy or maybe a better way to say it is not smooth.  It looks like he is still growing into his body but this is a big kid.  Kind of a frame like Judge.  Not as muscular yet but just a big guy.  If he does figure things out at the plate and that's not easy, he is a first round talent taken in the third round.

I think he might be a bit slow to develop as he fills out his body and adjusts to pro pitching but again a big "if", that hit tool hits he looks as good or better to me than Jenkins. I like that type of pick in the 3rd round.  if he is Cavaco with the bat then no big deal.  If he hits then he has all the tools to be an all star player.

I think this pick takes time but really do love the potential.  I hope he reaches it.

Great insight, which I agree with! Love the upside here, and believe he needs a couple years to get used to his body. 

Just wanted to do a quick compare to last years see what we think we have in value in this draft

1. Jenkins vs Lee   -  Jenkins has the slightly higher ceiling but both are very good prospects - pretty even 

2. Soto vs Prielipp -  Soto has the much higher ceiling and less injury risk,  heavily favors Soto, I still like Prielipp. 

3. Keaschall vs Schobel -  almost mere images of each other.  Wash

4. Winokur vs lost pick -   Winokur is high ceiling draft pick, 2023 win.  

This is where we start to get some real separation

5. Hall vs Morris .   Hall is the better pitcher and has a higher ceiling than Morris.  Really like the Hall pick - favors 2023

6. Questad vs Ross  - This heavily leans towards Questad.  you have high potential and even a better floor than Ross.  Real chance on hitting something here

7.  Harry vs Ortega -  Harry has good makeup - but Ortega has continued to show good pop so far,  first time I go with 2022.  

8. Santos vs Jones -  I am not high on either.  If one were to flash most likely Santos but a wash. 

9. Stoffal vs Matthews -  I think ultimately both have some talent.  I think Stoffal maybe slightly higher but willing to give this a wash.  

10.  Dougherty vs lewis -  a bit of hindsight here, but Lewis looked like had some tools to be effective pitcher.  I take Lewis even without his season performance, easily ahead here with the performance.  

11. Dunn vs Shuffield -  lets just ignore shuffield and look at Dunn vs Lewis.  Honestly this is very close even knowing what Lewis has done.  You have a lefty in Dunn that has 3 very good pitches.  You have the chance at a #3 ceiling pitcher possibly higher.  I slightly lean towards Dunn between the two but its close.     

What it shows is much higher ceilings but overall just better quality throughout (it helps having an extra pick).   You have 3 potential elite players in 2023 Jenkins, Soto and Winokur vs Lee.   I think Priellip has the potential to get back in this group but need to wait on the health.  Keaschall and Schobel both look like excellent ball players - safe picks likely good outcomes for both.  

For pitching - Hall, Questad and Stoffal and Dunn all have the tools to be good pitchers.  Mathews and Lewis appear to be the best picks for pitching on day 2 last year and we my have a gem in Lewis.  However the quantity and quality of pitching for yesterday heavily leans to 2023.  

The one caveat is Ortega,  I liked him when he was picked and he has continued to do well this year.  For the hitters drafted later, I think he has the best chance of continuing to improve and move up in the organization.   

The draft should be pretty good again in 3 years with all the high schoolers who are going to choose to go to college to improve their draft status.

FWIW, Fangraphs has Lewis a  55 and Jenkins a 50.......IIRC.

Overall, I think it shows just how DEEP this year's pool is, which is why I liked the strategy of picking the best player at 5, rather than playing underslot games.

Headed out to the garden to dig my garlic and do some weeding. Phone/MLB.com in my back pocket for coverage of day 3.

I like Zion Jones, C, High school, Florida. Why him? Like his name. MLB script says CF or C.

https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-zion-rose?t=mlb-draft

Quote

Your favorite?

 

7 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

7 (207) - Nolan Santos, RHP, Bethune-Cookman
22 years old. 6-1, 205.

Since I lived in Florida for 20 yrs, have to follow the Wildcat. I can't keep up w/14 guys -- Brother Seth keeps me up to speed.

I should also dig up my garlic, and some potatoes. tttyl.....

Question for the group: The former GM of Rockies who was on night one said about some 6'5" CF:

"With that size, long term will move to right."

Is he suggesting that on the downside of age 27 he will slow down? Is that true for most athletes or is he talking about any 6'5" CF?

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I should also dig up my garlic, and some potatoes. tttyl.....

OT:

Went with sweet potatoes this year. 5 of us guys compete with a different veggie/crop every year, all using same seed/cuttings. My Murasakis lookin' fine.

https://www.ufseeds.com/product/murasaki-purple-sweet-potato-slips/SPMP.html
 

47 minutes ago, davidborton said:

OT:

Went with sweet potatoes this year. 5 of us guys compete with a different veggie/crop every year, all using same seed/cuttings. My Murasakis lookin' fine.

https://www.ufseeds.com/product/murasaki-purple-sweet-potato-slips/SPMP.html
 

Apparently that was either ornamental onions, or one leek and ?. In any event, we aren't eating that part of what I pulled.

OTOH, a decent amount of potatoes from the small plants, there is one large one left that isn't dead yet. All the potatoes are "I thought I got all those" so they are bonus potatoes (other than taking up that part of the garden).

Will we see Catcher at 11 or do they stick with pitcher?  Seems like is an area they have taken catchers in the past.

 

2 minutes ago, Dman said:

Will we see Catcher at 11 or do they stick with pitcher?  Seems like is an area they have taken catchers in the past.

 

100% they take one in the next three picks, IMO. 

Too bad you can 't filter out HS kids from the MLB draft tracker....as I can't see any of them being taken at this point...

Another college pitcher, sr.....no real shock. 

Found this article on best prospect from each state.  Looks like there is potential but his WHIP was high this year giving up more hits than innings pitched and walking a fair amount of guys.  Needs some work but has pitches.  There is also this article that describes what he throws etc. Seems like they definitely always have eye on Big Ten pitchers.  They must feel they can develop them more than the northern college systems.

I like this pick.

 

Iowa: Ty Langenberg, RHP, Iowa
Langenberg put himself on a lot of radars by striking out 33 and walking only four in 21 1/3 innings on the Cape last summer but put up more mundane numbers (4.15 ERA, 86 K, 34 BB in 78 innings) for the Hawkeyes this spring, hurting his stock. His fastball sits 90-92 with some carry and is complemented by two mid-80s pitches in his slider and changeup.

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

Found this article on best prospect from each state.  Looks like there is potential but his WHIP was high this year giving up more hits than innings pitched and walking a fair amount of guys.  Needs some work but has pitches.

 

Iowa: Ty Langenberg, RHP, Iowa
Langenberg put himself on a lot of radars by striking out 33 and walking only four in 21 1/3 innings on the Cape last summer but put up more mundane numbers (4.15 ERA, 86 K, 34 BB in 78 innings) for the Hawkeyes this spring, hurting his stock. His fastball sits 90-92 with some carry and is complemented by two mid-80s pitches in his slider and changeup.

Don't know why, but this reminds me of an off-hand joke my son's coach made about recruiting while he was on his official visit last year.  

- If you want hitters... look at kids from the south/southeast, if you want pitchers... get the kids from up north 

Being a Hawkeye fan,  Langenberg is excellent value at this point.  Strong pitcher came in as the expected #1 struggled a little bit but was still overall strong numbers in a decent B1G conference.  He has the potential to add a bit to the fastball.  Similar to Hall and Stoffal,  good stuff  not the highest of ceiling but have the tools that can become a very good pitcher for the Twin.  

Iowa has 1 more prospect that likely should have been taken earlier.  Anthony,  the question is whether will come back to college or will sign.  Ultimately I think will sign, however not sure the Twins would take a chance.  He is currently in an investigation for gambling,  although appears to be small and maybe a football game, or fantasy football.  He was suspended for the back half of the season and missed the CWS.  

Pasqualotto,  another good pitcher at this point in the draft.  Good slider,  could use a little more velocity and movement on 92 mph fastball.   I am really liking the pitchers in this draft.   Still waiting for that 6'6" mound of clay in a prospect :).  

Pasqualotto made MLB top 250 so there's that.  It looks like a bet post TJ that he can find more control and improve the numbers.  Change is the plus pitch.  Sounds like more reliever than starter.  It is a bet on upside as they like to do with several guys in this range.  Could use help with the fastball but I think the Twins can help with velocity and spin and they need promising relief arms so this looks like value for the 12 round.
 

2 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Pasqualotto,  another good pitcher at this point in the draft.  Good slider,  could use a little more velocity and movement on 92 mph fastball.   I am really liking the pitchers in this draft.   Still waiting for that 6'6" mound of clay in a prospect :).  

His write up says he just returned from TJ this last season... so we may see that get better as he puts more distance from the injury.

Sounds like another injury bet.  He was injured in 2022 and came back this year but the results were not great.  They must feel like another year of recovery will help him get his mojo back.