Mauer Outage

TheLeviathan · June 29, 2016

Is that based on any research or just personal preference? I would be curious to know.I know there was an article written a few years ago on fangraphs that looked at "inconsistent" pitchers including Liriano, and the conclusion was that streakiness amongst SPs was actually preferred to consistency. I wonder if the same is true of hitters.

Personal preference....I guess it would be better to have hard data. It may also be difficult to narrow down because "streaky" isn't a consistent thing. Dozier has been a borderline bench player for 5 months, does his last three weeks really make up for that even if his OPS says it does? That doesn't feel right, but I'm curious to see what FG says to Mike's question.

Mike Sixel · June 29, 2016

Personal preference....I guess it would be better to have hard data. It may also be difficult to narrow down because "streaky" isn't a consistent thing. Dozier has been a borderline bench player for 5 months, does his last three weeks really make up for that even if his OPS says it does? That doesn't feel right, but I'm curious to see what FG says to Mike's question.

Well, I tweeted David Cameron (no, the other one, the one that still has a job), we'll see what he says, if anything useful....

USAFChief · June 29, 2016

A couple nitpics with Nick's article:

in April, I didn't see Mauer "spraying liners everywhere." He was getting a few more to drop in LF. I do agree he was K'ing less.

I also disagree he used to get a lot of doubles by hitting "liners down both lines." He never pulled the ball with authority much.

And to me, that is the primary issue with Mauer, his inability to turn on the ball. When pitchers aren't afraid of you pulling the ball, they pitch you differently. Teams can defend you differently...and teams don't even defend right field against Mauer anymore. The entire OF is shifted way to the left.

He still gets on base, at least better than other current Twins options. Bat him first or second and just leave him there, instead of continuing to imagine anything is going to change.

bird · June 29, 2016

I've tried to find a study on this......is it better to have guys hit 1 for 4 every game.....or 2 games with three hits and 4 games with no hits (or something like that)? Which one leads to more wins over 162 games?

I can't find one, but I'll ask on a FG chat or tweet one of them, and see....

Good thought, but I'd suspect there are uncontrolled variables at play. Wouldn't some managers bench a player, even a star player, if they had a prolonged period where they're flailing up there, exhibiting no power to speak of, and continuing to at least give the impression that they're almost as happy with a walk than they are driving a teammate in when there are runners on? Wouldn't good managers at least move a guy with ONE lousy double in 208 plate appearances to the bottom third of his lineup? Do I have the impression that Mauer (he's not the only one, mind you) gets coddled by the manager and maybe by the organization as a whole?

If I'm GM, I'm asking his agent to tell me in no uncertain terms what it's going to take to get Joe to waive his NT clause. If it's not completely stupid, I'm meeting his price and living with his list of teams he'd go to. Then, since it's a sunk cost anyway, I'm telling those teams that we're eating the remainder of his contract and looking for the best prospect package.

Mike Sixel · June 29, 2016

Good thought, but I'd suspect there are uncontrolled variables at play. Wouldn't some managers bench a player, even a star player, if they had a prolonged period where they're flailing up there, exhibiting no power to speak of, and continuing to at least give the impression that they're almost as happy with a walk than they are driving a teammate in when there are runners on? Wouldn't good managers at least move a guy with ONE lousy double in 208 plate appearances to the bottom third of his lineup? Do I have the impression that Mauer (and other players, mind you) gets coddled by the manager and maybe by the organization as a whole?

If I'm GM, I'm asking his agent to tell me in no uncertain terms what it's going to take to get Joe to waive his NT clause. If it's not completely stupid, I'm meeting his price and living with his list of teams he'd go to. Then, since it's a sunk cost anyway, I'm telling those teams that we're eating the remainder of his contract and looking for the best prospect package.

heh, totally different discussion.....but I can't argue with any of this.

djvang · June 29, 2016

He won't get many doubles down the LF line anymore because they're playing him about 15 feet off the line. Is he even capable of pulling the ball other than grounders to 2B? Does he even try? He's the master of the "useless hit". Doesn't get hits when the game is close but always when behind 8-2 in the 8th. But he's untouchable to mgmt.

DocBauer · June 29, 2016

Just want to say I am NOT a Mauer basher and never have been. I even have a Mauer jersey, which I gave admitted to before. And this season is not over yet to be sure.

Buy as I stated before the season started, if this indeed turns out to be a 3rd straight year of decline for Joe...despite his competitive nature...I really wish he would decide to be a family man and retire with some sort of by out from the Twins. At some point, simply not being able to perform has to wear on him doesn't it?

Mr. Brooks · June 29, 2016

It will be nice to fire up the " It's all Mauer's fault" talk once again.

Please point me in the direction of one single post on all of Twins Daily that claims it is all Mauer's fault?

Pointing out out his struggles does not equal blaming the whole mess on him.

We get it, he used to be a really good baseball player. That doesn't buy him a lifetime of immunity from any and all critique.

Mr. Brooks · June 29, 2016

Just want to say I am NOT a Mauer basher and never have been. I even have a Mauer jersey, which I gave admitted to before. And this season is not over yet to be sure.

Buy as I stated before the season started, if this indeed turns out to be a 3rd straight year of decline for Joe...despite his competitive nature...I really wish he would decide to be a family man and retire with some sort of by out from the Twins. At some point, simply not being able to perform has to wear on him doesn't it?

I get there is this image of Joe as this really humble guy who doesn't care about the money, but sorry, everyone cares about the money. Nobody is walking away from that kind of money.

Maybe he would agree to deferring that money over 15 years or something, or a partial ownership stake, but he's not just leaving it on the table.

And for the record, nor should he.

Linus · June 30, 2016

Yawn.

Richie the Rally Goat · June 30, 2016

I keep waiting for Joe to come up injured with some hard to detect injury (related to concussion or not) that puts him on the DL and after 6 weeks requires some kind of invasive treatment or surgery that sidelined him for the rest of the year

BD57 · June 30, 2016

It will be nice to fire up the " It's all Mauer's fault" talk once again.

It's not "all Mauer's fault" because he's one guy, and a team can't stink because of one guy.

The notion that the Twins aren't spending money to get guys who can help because of Mauer's contract - that's BS, IMO. You don't pass on guys who can help because you have one bad contract, not in a game where you're not subject to a salary cap.

Mauer's been one part of a whole series of misfortunes . . . . Mauer & Morneau were going to be at the heart of this order for years, but we lost them both & haven't recovered.

Ncgo4 · July 1, 2016

The twins have no one that pitches well. They have no one that hit's well. They have no one that can throw out a runner at second. If Mauer hits .245 on this team, he's a hero!

DrNeau · July 20, 2016

7/19/16 --- Mauer's stats --- 92 games in:

* HR: 7 (Take away that one good week and he is nearly worst of all time. Of 23 MLB qualifying 1B, He ranks 21st.)

* RBI: 28 (Of 23 MLB qualifying 1B, He ranks 22nd.)

* AVG: .265 (Here we go again.)

* SLG: .371 (13th on TEAM. Ranks 22nd of 23 MLB 1B. Sweet idea to keep running him out there, though.)

We finally saw some accountability in this organization on Monday. When will we have some at 1B?

Edited July 20, 2016 by DrNeau

jimmer · July 20, 2016

7/19/16 --- Mauer's stats --- 92 games in:

* HR: 7 (Take away that one good week and he is nearly worst of all time. Of 23 MLB qualifying 1B, He ranks 21st.)

* RBI: 28 (Of 23 MLB qualifying 1B, He ranks 22nd.)

* AVG: .265 (Here we go again.)

* SLG: .371 (13th on TEAM. Ranks 22nd of 23 MLB 1B. Sweet idea to keep running him out there, though.)

We finally saw some accountability in this organization on Monday. When will we have some at 1B?

where does he rank in getting on base on the team or OPS or wRC+? How about on defense?

Edited July 20, 2016 by jimmer

h2oface · July 20, 2016

Maker's decline also correlates directly to getting married and having a family. No judgment, just fact.

DrNeau · July 20, 2016

where does he rank in getting on base on the team or OPS or wRC+? How about on defense?

OBP/OPS is average only because he tries his hardest every at bat to take a walk. It's surely not due to hitting. I like his defense. Still, his hitting and RBI production is so low that it's really embarrassing.

jimmer · July 20, 2016

OBP/OPS is average only because he tries his hardest every at bat to take a walk. It's surely not due to hitting. I like his defense. Still, his hitting and RBI production is so low that it's really embarrassing.

His OBP, OPS and wRC+ on the TEAM is average?

As far as RBI goes (a team dependent stat) he does pretty well with RISP. Not as well as his career numbers are for sure, but certainly not horrific. Might there be other reasons why he may not have as many RBI as some would suggest he should have.

He still provides value to this team. Not as much as we would hope for sure. I am also disappointed in his overall offensive performance and admit I was fooled by his good start (because of his history, not because of SSS alone), but this whole roster is a disappointment and hes certainly not high on the long list of issues, IMO.

Edited July 20, 2016 by jimmer

twins_89 · July 20, 2016

It's pretty clear that Joe Mauer is now a .260-.270 hitting 1B/DH with a sub .740 OPS and that is what he will be going forward. The real question which hasn't yet become an issue is what happens if there are two other 1B/DH guys who are clearly hitting better? I'm a little surprised it hasn't happened yet. Sano's bat (3B/DH) needs to be in the lineup every day and Plouffe (3B) might return to his previous production and deserve to play as well. That would mean that if one out of Park/Vargas/Palka figures things out the Twins might have to make a hard decision on how much Mauer plays going forward.

DrNeau · July 20, 2016

He still provides value to this team... IMO.

.371 SLG for an AL 1B is not valuable. Agree to disagree.

Brock Beauchamp · July 20, 2016

.371 SLG for an AL 1B is not valuable. Agree to disagree.

We'd all like Mauer's slugging to be higher but slugging isn't the only stat that matters.

Joe Mauer has the 7th best OBP in the American League. On a team chock full of players who swing from their heels at pitches over their heads, that has enormous value, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

Bark's Lounge · July 20, 2016

I think all of the Joe haters should go picket Target Field and get their voices across. This evil, evil man signed a contract when he was in his prime and for the most part, it did not work out, he set a precedent, he was the one and only 100 million dollar man contract that didn't work out. How unholy and we are all the victims. Some one needs to be lynched or burned on the cross!

Mauer hate is foolish, it's fish food for small minds. I'd like to think at some point we all were fans of this guy. Probably too many concussions and his big body broke down. Too many people are stuck on the money and 2009, think back to that time and jerk it all you want. It's not coming back. He was an elite player for us for many years. He was tremendous. There is a lot of hate out there right now and it has no good outcome. The Joe Mauer wet dream years are over. Move on, please. Please!

Dwelling in the past is counter productive. Look to the future. Spend your time on sorting out that enchilada.

TheLeviathan · July 20, 2016

Personally, I like Mauer. I just wish he'd retire. (And not because of the money...)

Rosterman · July 20, 2016

Mauer was THAT draft choice, St. Paul kid, great hitter. better football player, plus he was a catcher.

Somehow, he became the hometown fave, the FACE of the franchise.

When he came off a great season and it was time to sign that BIG contract (not that he hadn't already pocketed some dough), the powers-that-be cringed at what would happen if Joe would be allowed to walk.

And they still cringe when they thought of him in a Red Sox or any other uniform. (Are we cringing that Morneau was a Pirate, a Rockie or...White Sox).

If the Twins kept any player...it had to be JOE MAUER.

But wait, have we ever had a face of the franchise? Okay, Harmon Killebrew, but Griffith allowed him to walk to Kansas City. Kirby Puckett. Yes. Others? Santana took his $120m needs elsewhere. Knoblauch demanded a trade. Hunter signed for $90m. Mike Cuddyer refused a hometown discount. Nathan grabbed the first free agent offer made to him. The Twins traded Zolio, Bert, Kaat, Pascual.

Even Hrbek retired, albeit not gracefully.

It's not like the Twins are the Yankees, the need to have someone, anyone follow someone or another and make mini-dynasties (Jeter) or not (Mattingly).

Can the Twins live with Mauer out of the picture? Seems now they should, as he is an adequate first baseman (shades of Dougie M). But would anyone take on his contract? Is there a better park he could play in that might keep what was a Hall of Fame career as a catcher going?

Unless, of course, baseball would treat a franchise player the same way as, say, football. Above and beyond the salary needs of the team, as what that player is paid is part salary and part branding.

But to the Pohlads, it still comes out of the same purse.

You can't build a mid-market (or small market) franchise around one player. You can't even build a franchise around a rotating group of players (i.e. Oakland).

But we embraced Joe as a multi-million longterm player (eh, catcher) just as we did buy into the Pohlads opening their purse and Ryan able to spend money on free agent pitchers (albeit Nolasco, Pelfrey, Hughes, Santana, Schaffer) and thought it was better to spend than allow them to keep and spend on their own desires and needs.

Shaitan · July 20, 2016

We'd all like Mauer's slugging to be higher but slugging isn't the only stat that matters.

Joe Mauer has the 7th best OBP in the American League. On a team chock full of players who swing from their heels at pitches over their heads, that has enormous value, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

Who needs statistics when we can suggest that his wife or children are to blame or that he's faking injuries?

I think his decline is because he doesn't drink enough nerve tonic, obviously.

twinsnorth49 · July 20, 2016

Personally, I like Mauer. I just wish he'd retire. (And not because of the money...)

Yeah, this.

SwainZag · July 20, 2016

We'd all like Mauer's slugging to be higher but slugging isn't the only stat that matters.

Joe Mauer has the 7th best OBP in the American League. On a team chock full of players who swing from their heels at pitches over their heads, that has enormous value, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

That's the problem, even when you have a board chalk full of people who want to rip the front office about advanced statistics, you still get a hoard of people who will say, "he gets no RBI and always looks for a walk!" Joe is getting on base almost 50% of the time with runners in scoring position. That should be extremely valuable!

mickeymental · July 20, 2016

mauer, punto, aj, chuck, rd. twins hall of scorn.

USAFChief · July 20, 2016

Pretending that Mauer isn't one of the Twins problems is one of the Twins problems.

KGB · July 20, 2016

During Mauer's entire career, slugging percentage has been move valuable than OBP. Along with playing a position where you look for slugging and a team that should be building for the future, it's time to see less playing time for Mauer.

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/when-slugging-percentage-beats-on-base-percentage/

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