Aledmys Diaz

[nicksaviking]

For all we know, Diaz turned down more dollars for fewer years, or vice versa. We don't know his preference, but as the Cardinals showed the most interest and the earliest interest, that may have put him in their pocket money not withstanding.

 

Still, it did sound like the Twins had no interest in this guy after the age dust up last summer.

 

However, classifying a guy is a "utility" player is kind of subjective. The Twins have probably given the opening day start to at least one (often two) "utility" middle infielder every year since.....? I'm going to go with Gagne and Knoblauch in 1992.

[kab21]

8M is pretty reasonable for a fringy top 100 prospect. The correct term to use is prospect. It's possible that he is only a utility player just like it's possible that Rosario never makes it as an MLB starter. He could also be a solid MLB player.

 

Just because a team is willing to spend on prospects doesn't mean that breaking the bank open on fringy prospects is a wise idea. 8M I like but 20-30M on him a little silly from the information that is out there.

[Mike Sixel]

Only if you also admit they have plenty more money to spend, and they are choosing not to spend it. I'll admit they spent big (under Smith) to sign two prospects. But they still have piles and piles of money they could be spending, and are choosing not to spend it. Why should I be happy about that, when what they need is players? Why should I be content to watch good players (the DH in Chicago) sign with other teams, when the Twins have the money but choose not to use it?

 

As for signing the number 7 and 10 intl prospects.....the Twins have one of the largest allocations in the majors, and have not signed the most expensive guys. Not sure bragging about that makes your point. And it's a pittance compared to what the Cubans cost.

[howieramone1406390264]

Only if you also admit they have plenty more money to spend, and they are choosing not to spend it. I'll admit they spent big (under Smith) to sign two prospects. But they still have piles and piles of money they could be spending, and are choosing not to spend it. Why should I be happy about that, when what they need is players? Why should I be content to watch good players (the DH in Chicago) sign with other teams, when the Twins have the money but choose not to use it?

 

As for signing the number 7 and 10 intl prospects.....the Twins have one of the largest allocations in the majors, and have not signed the most expensive guys. Not sure bragging about that makes your point. And it's a pittance compared to what the Cubans cost.

 

Mike, which Cubans should the Twins have signed? They said early on, they were not high on the DH the Sox signed. Maybe right, maybe wrong, it certainly hasn't been determined if he's a good player at this time. Also, do you think the Twins should choose 16 year-olds by who is the most expensive?

[Mike Sixel]

I think they should spend all the money they can to get better. I have no idea how to choose a 16 year old. Justifying that they are spending the most money they can by arguing that signing guys that are less expensive shows they are spending the most money they can seems off to me. The Cubs and others are going over their allottment to sign lots of the top guys, not just one. We don't have perfect information, we can only go by what the rankers say about these 16 year olds. And, they say that other teams are spending more money to buy more of the top ranked guys.

 

You clearly are accepting of their approach to get better. I clearly am not. Not sure why that bothers you and birdwatcher so much, that people disagree with you.

[Thrylos]

which Cubans should the Twins have signed?

 

I think that the only can't miss Cuban is some guy who is pitching with the Reds.

 

I don't see any of the others as game changers, Puig included (still he has only one season under his belt). Some of them (Morales, Cespedes) are good major league starting line up material, but that's about it.

[jokin]

So true. No way they will every have the top rated farm system in baseball.

 

Hanging one's hat over and over on such a speculative hat rack is an invitation to failure- and completely misses the point of Savvy's post.

 

If the money is available, and it clearly is, it's foolish to rest on short-term pundit-based accolades- how many championships does an "award" like that get you?

 

The Twins should be doing what actual consistently successful teams like the Cards do; what the Cards preach as a huge priority, is building quality depth at every position and then placing their highest priority on properly developing it at an accelerated rate with the best training methods available.

[jokin]

I think they should spend all the money they can to get better. I have no idea how to choose a 16 year old. Justifying that they are spending the most money they can by arguing that signing guys that are less expensive shows they are spending the most money they can seems off to me. The Cubs and others are going over their allottment to sign lots of the top guys, not just one. We don't have perfect information, we can only go by what the rankers say about these 16 year olds. And, they say that other teams are spending more money to buy more of the top ranked guys.

 

You clearly are accepting of their approach to get better. I clearly am not. Not sure why that bothers you and birdwatcher so much, that people disagree with you.

 

And now the Yankees see what the Cubs and Dodgers have done, and they have identified the inefficiencies in this market and have announced their intent to pay through the nose in penalties in order to effectively corner the market on the most promising talent.

 

Another door closed for the Twins to play catch-up until the institution of an International Draft ever comes to fruition.

[howieramone1406390264]

Hanging one's hat over and over on such a speculative hat rack is an invitation to failure- and completely misses the point of Savvy's post.

 

If the money is available, and it clearly is, it's foolish to rest on short-term pundit-based accolades- how many championships does an "award" like that get you?

 

The Twins should be doing what actual consistently successful teams like the Cards do; what the Cards preach as a huge priority, is building quality depth at every position and then placing their highest priority on properly developing it at an accelerated rate with the best training methods available.

.

 

I never follow the senior circuit, but continue to catch bits and pieces about the Cardinal Way, and about how our favorite team should adopt their practices. Is there any way you could start a thread outlining these practices, so we can discuss? I have to admit I've always taken references to the Cards, A's, Rays, Cub's etc. as unsubstantiated opportunities of taking unwarranted shots at our favorite team.

[bird]

I think they should spend all the money they can to get better. I have no idea how to choose a 16 year old. Justifying that they are spending the most money they can by arguing that signing guys that are less expensive shows they are spending the most money they can seems off to me. The Cubs and others are going over their allottment to sign lots of the top guys, not just one. We don't have perfect information, we can only go by what the rankers say about these 16 year olds. And, they say that other teams are spending more money to buy more of the top ranked guys.

 

You clearly are accepting of their approach to get better. I clearly am not. Not sure why that bothers you and birdwatcher so much, that people disagree with you.

 

I'm never bothered with people disagreeing with me. I'm bothered by comments like the ones above from savvy, and yours, too to a lesser degree: "I'm still waiting for the Twins to spend money on prospects when the opportunity arises." It's a comment completely contrary to the reality, mike.

 

Now, of course you want them to spend all the money they can. You even have said you're entitled to that. But then, you ignore the facts and complain they didn't sign the absolutely most expensive guy? That they instead settled on Lewin Diaz and Amaurys Minier, while ignoring the inaccuracy of your claim by refusing to acknowledge their successes at outbidding everyone for Sano, Kepler, Thorpe, and now Barrie?? Come on, mike. And to complain about not making a strong bid for the one guy the Sox signed? The Sox, who had one of the worst farm systems, and one of the worst records in all of baseball?

 

And mike, I haven't heard anyone say they're spending "the most money they can". So yes, I think your expectations are very unreasonable and simplistic, too. You claim other teams are spending more money on higher-ranked talent, and that's a false generalization. The Cubs, yes. And what the Cubs did is unethical, and I'm glad the Twins aren't cheaters.

 

You know, there have been a lot of FA opportunities over the past couple years that we as fans would have liked to see the team pursue, and I have no problem whatsoever with disagreements when the team passes or gets outbid on a specific player, but here's my thought on that: applying a standard of reasonableness (meaning one could accept passing on, say Greinke or accept spending no more than, say $100M in an offseason), IF the Twins had signed enough FA talent over the last two offseason to satisfy almost every other fan but perhaps you , the team would probably win 87 games in 2014. And, they would be hamstrung financially and competitively in the future, with a roster full of declining, quarrelsome, injured malcontents.

 

That's why I can accept passing on someone like Drew. We have a 25 win problem, not a 2 win problem, and the only fix is the one underway. It may not be fast enough for you, and it may not empty Jim Pohlad's wallet the way you believe it should, and that's fine. Knock yourself out continuing to make that case, my friend. It won't bother me, honest.

[Riverbrian]

I'm a strange guy... There is no doubt about that.

 

I seem to be a little off kilter because I simply refuse to get worked up over players that I know nothing about.

 

I was bummed over Bonofacio because I know who he is... I've seen him.

 

Diaz... I have no idea... Reading a scouting report from someone who probably got his scouting report from someone else... means very little to me. Especially when I know nothing about the evaluators involved.

 

I continue to trust... That if the Twins scouting staff likes him... They would have made a competitive offer. Same goes for the other 28 teams. The Cards liked him at X amount and the player liked the Cards at X amount.

 

Did the Twins like him at Y amount or did the Twins not like him at all??? I don't know.

 

I'm really gonna try hard to not get worked up over not signing some guy that I've never seen to form my own opinion on.

 

Same goes for our current farm evaluations. I'm reading that the Twins have the top farm system. I read that and I feel great about it... But I won't feel totally wonderful until those great talents on the farm produce at the MLB level for my own eyes.

[jokin]

I'm a strange guy... There is no doubt about that.

 

I seem to be a little off kilter because I simply refuse to get worked up over players that I know nothing about.

 

I was bummed over Bonofacio because I know who he is... I've seen him.

 

Diaz... I have no idea... Reading a scouting report from someone who probably got his scouting report from someone else... means very little to me. Especially when I know nothing about the evaluators involved.

 

I continue to trust... That if the Twins scouting staff likes him... They would have made a competitive offer. Same goes for the other 28 teams. The Cards liked him at X amount and the player liked the Cards at X amount.

 

Did the Twins like him at Y amount or did the Twins not like him at all??? I don't know.

 

I'm really gonna try hard to not get worked up over not signing some guy that I've never seen to form my own opinion on.

 

Same goes for our current farm evaluations. I'm reading that the Twins have the top farm system. I read that and I feel great about it... But I won't feel totally wonderful until those great talents on the farm produce at the MLB level for my own eyes.

 

Same with me. That's why I put a lot of trust in successful organizations when they make personnel decisions where all of the facts are sketchy, even when they don't have to do so. The Cards made a concerted effort to learn about the state of Cuban baseball and Diaz particularly- the modest outlay for acquiring the potential, but undetermined, major league ready talent that Diaz represetns, seems like exactly the type of deal that should have fit the Twins MO. (And I seem to remember that last fall the Twins were alleged to have said that the price for Diaz was too high).

[The Wise One]

Yet for all of the wisdom of St. Louis, their last 30 first round draft picks have produced only 1 player of 10 career bwar. Wong, Miller, Wacha and Lynn may have fine careers, but it has not happened yet.

I find it a little hard to get excited that someone signed a player to a 8 million contract that has not really played in a league rated above AA that did not crush in that league. It is still anybody's guess as to what will happen.

[Winston Smith]

Yet for all of the wisdom of St. Louis, their last 30 first round draft picks have produced only 1 player of 10 career bwar. I find it a little hard to get excited that someone signed a player to a 20 million contract that has not really played in a league rated above AA that did not crush in that league.

 

Well the same excuse I see used for the Twins applies that they have been drafting late in the first round every year.

 

Look at it this way. The last Twin playoff win was 10 years ago 2004. In the last ten years the Cards have 52 wins, 4 trips to the world series and 2 world series titles.

 

I'll take the Cards wisdom any day! That was the point I made before, if they sign a guy it is likely for a good reason. They may not draft well in the first round but they are clearly doing something right.

[jokin]

Yet for all of the wisdom of St. Louis, their last 30 first round draft picks have produced only 1 player of 10 career bwar. Wong, Miller, Wacha and Lynn may have fine careers, but it has not happened yet.

I find it a little hard to get excited that someone signed a player to a 8 million contract that has not really played in a league rated above AA that did not crush in that league. It is still anybody's guess as to what will happen.

 

$8M to play in this type of game for talent-acquisition is barely a rounding error. Good risk-reward ratio.

[jokin]

Well the same excuse I see used for the Twins applies that they have been drafting late in the first round every year.

 

Look at it this way. The last Twin playoff win was 10 years ago 2004. In the last ten years the Cards have 52 wins, 4 trips to the world series and 2 world series titles.

 

I'll take the Cards wisdom any day! That was the point I made before, if they sign a guy it is likely for a good reason. They may not draft well in the first round but they are clearly doing something right.

 

Hard to refute when you provide the damning evidence, Winston.

[howieramone1406390264]

Well the same excuse I see used for the Twins applies that they have been drafting late in the first round every year.

 

Look at it this way. The last Twin playoff win was 10 years ago 2004. In the last ten years the Cards have 52 wins, 4 trips to the world series and 2 world series titles.

 

I'll take the Cards wisdom any day! That was the point I made before, if they sign a guy it is likely for a good reason. They may not draft well in the first round but they are clearly doing something right.

 

Compared to what his countrymen are getting, it looks like dumpster diving to me.

[Thrylos]

$8M to play in this type of game for talent-acquisition is barely a rounding error. Good risk-reward ratio.

 

Tell me again, how you feel about the Nishioka talent acquisition?

[The Wise One]

The point was just because the Cardinals signed this player does not make it a great signing. If they were confident in their first round picks Wong and Korzma they might not have signed him.

The point on the first round drafting is that this talent savvy organization missed on so many draft picks. Not even serviceable players. The Twins record over the same period is similar.

[Guest USAFChief]

The point was just because the Cardinals signed this player does not make it a great signing. If they were confident in their first round picks Wong and Korzma they might not have signed him. The point on the first round drafting is that this talent savvy organization missed on so many draft picks. Not even serviceable players. The Twins record over the same period is similar.

Another point might be the Cards make it a point to add talent to the organization through other means as well as the draft. That way the inevitable misses in the draft aren't necessarily as damaging to the big league team. If you depend mostly on the draft to supply all the front line talent you need for sustained success, there's a good chance you're going to experience some long dry spells.

[thetank]

The point was just because the Cardinals signed this player does not make it a great signing. If they were confident in their first round picks Wong and Korzma they might not have signed him.

The point on the first round drafting is that this talent savvy organization missed on so many draft picks. Not even serviceable players. The Twins record over the same period is similar.

The 2009 draft is a major contributor for the Cardinals with 5 key players on the current team. Before this time the Cards team was built on getting veterans like Rolen, Edmonds and Chris carpenter and getting lucky drafting Pujols in the late rounds as well as Molina. Few bad trades and no real bad long term contracts has aided the team while it rebuilds and still wins.

[The Wise One]

Another point might be the Cards make it a point to add talent to the organization through other means as well as the draft. That way the inevitable misses in the draft aren't necessarily as damaging to the big league team. If you depend mostly on the draft to supply all the front line talent you need for sustained success, there's a good chance you're going to experience some long dry spells.

 

All you post may be all well and true. It still does not change the fact that just because the Cardinals signed him it was a good signing. That was the claim that was made. "Based on the fact that it's the Cardinals, with 6 or 7 other teams hot on his trail with offers," and "St Louis doesn't make a lot of mistakes and I would trust them over the Twins front office and most bloggers. Likely to turn out being a good signing. "

 

Those two posts ignore facts. Like every other team, St Louis has more misses than hits. Because St Louis signs someone does not mean they might be a good player. There is a lot unknown about the Cuban players. One of those unkowns is how good they actually are. Yadil Mujica had better stats as an infielder in Cuba than Diaz and has not been able to crack a major league team. Perhaps had he not broke his leg jumping on home plate Morales would have been a superstar. Chapmaan has had success. There is not a lot of susstained star power out of Cuba. The smart people figure out the holes in the player's game. See Cespedes' OPS year 2. As compared to the Dominican, there really hasn't been a lot of average players come out of Cuba, either.

[kab21]

I think they should spend all the money they can to get better. I have no idea how to choose a 16 year old. Justifying that they are spending the most money they can by arguing that signing guys that are less expensive shows they are spending the most money they can seems off to me. The Cubs and others are going over their allottment to sign lots of the top guys, not just one. We don't have perfect information, we can only go by what the rankers say about these 16 year olds. And, they say that other teams are spending more money to buy more of the top ranked guys.

 

You clearly are accepting of their approach to get better. I clearly am not. Not sure why that bothers you and birdwatcher so much, that people disagree with you.

 

I actually like signing Diaz for 8M. I think that is a fair risk/reward for a prospect that is fringy top 100. The problem I have with the rest of your post is that you seem willing to spend an unlimited amount for any level of talent. As comparisons Alex Guerrero signed for 25-30M but it sounds like he's a better hitter but stuck at 2B. Arreubuenna (sp?) signed for a similar amount and isn't expected to hit at all. Spending just for the sake of spending is a poor strategy.

 

In addition to that there is a limit to what the Cubs and Rangers can do in international FA. They blew away their budgets last but they are basically completely out except for maybe one 500K (I think smaller) signing. There are consequences (not enough) to exceeding the budget.

 

I think it's almost hilarious how critical some are of a team that has completely changed their international focus. Before Sano it would have been completely unheard of to sign a 1M+ dominican much less sign several other 300-600K guys in one offseason. the Twins aren't the biggest spenders and never will be but they are at least in the mix in int'l FA.

[biggentleben]

Remember that the Cubs and Rangers acquired most of that extra money. They didn't end up in the penalty (unless their numbers ended up higher than was initially reported) because they made a number of deals for IFA slot money.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm guessing that is hyperbole when you say I am for spending any amount of money for any level of talent......

 

The Twins spend within the new spending limits set aside for Int'l signings. They aren't even close to spending "a lot" on it at all since those limits went into effect. Compared to their revenue, it is a rounding error. They do not take advantage of their currently lower MLB payroll to buy Cubans when they are available. That is, of course, their perogative. I think it also mine as a fan to question that logic.

[kab21]

I'm guessing that is hyperbole when you say I am for spending any amount of money for any level of talent......

 

The Twins spend within the new spending limits set aside for Int'l signings. They aren't even close to spending "a lot" on it at all since those limits went into effect. Compared to their revenue, it is a rounding error. They do not take advantage of their currently lower MLB payroll to buy Cubans when they are available. That is, of course, their perogative. I think it also mine as a fan to question that logic.

 

Are the Cubans a decent value at all though? Start naming names of recent signings.

 

Alex guerrero? I liked this signing since I think he can hit but since he is probably limited to 2B this board was against it simply because the Twins have Dozier and Rosario.

 

Arrebuena, Iglesias and Hechavaria can't hit but are defensive whiz's. Pass.

 

the 3 toolsy OF'ers from 2-3 yrs ago? I liked signing Soler but again the board (or BYTO) basically went nuts against it because the Twins have so much MiLB OF depth. Puig has taken everyone by surprise and at the time nearly everyone thought the Dodgers had way overpaid.

 

Abreu? 60+M for an unproven 1Bman with question marks.

 

Any pitchers? Aside from Gonzalez (Phils) they barely sounded like MLB caliber RP'ers since Chapman defected.

 

Your complaint is exactly what I said it was. You don't care about the player as long as the Twins spend silly money to satisfy you. The Cubans that have recently come to the US haven't been great values unless they hit their upside. The one recurring theme though is that if you sign one of these cubans then you won't be able to pick a position of need. I actually think that is a poor argument to not sign a player since the important thing is to add talent to the org and worry about where to play players when you actually have too many good ones.

[kab21]

Remember that the Cubs and Rangers acquired most of that extra money. They didn't end up in the penalty (unless their numbers ended up higher than was initially reported) because they made a number of deals for IFA slot money.

 

They made deals and acquired extra money but they didn't acquire that much extra money. It's pretty clear that the new CBA didn't include harsh enough penalties for taking this route.

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/08/14/theo-epstein-confirms-the-cubs-international-spending-approach-discusses-free-agent-spending/

[The Wise One]

They made deals and acquired extra money but they didn't acquire that much extra money. It's pretty clear that the new CBA didn't include harsh enough penalties for taking this route.

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/08/14/theo-epstein-confirms-the-cubs-international-spending-approach-discusses-free-agent-spending/

 

What of this year when te can not spend more than $250,000 for a prospect? Essentially no top prospets for 2014 out of the international market. That is a setback for sining a few more players

[biggentleben]

They made deals and acquired extra money but they didn't acquire that much extra money. It's pretty clear that the new CBA didn't include harsh enough penalties for taking this route.

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/08/14/theo-epstein-confirms-the-cubs-international-spending-approach-discusses-free-agent-spending/

 

They went above after my last view of their status. That's still a pretty steep penalty considering where they are in pool allotment this year. The Rangers would be a different story as their pool allotment will be much smaller.

[kab21]

What of this year when te can not spend more than $250,000 for a prospect? Essentially no top prospets for 2014 out of the international market. That is a setback for sining a few more players

 

It's a setback but it clearly didn't deter them or the Rangers. The Yankees are publicly saying 4 months before signing even begins that they will spend 10-14M which if they actually spend should net them 6-10 of the top prospects.

 

As it is the Cubs signed 4 of the top 30 prospects while forfeiting the next signing period when they probably would have only signed 1-2 if they played by the rules. Additionally the Cubs can still trade most of their signing allowance this year netting them even more prospects.

 

compare this to the MLB draft where the penalties quickly escalate to losing multiple 1st rd draft picks for a similar action.