Johan Santana throws off mound, Twins in attendance

[Parker Hageman]

Johan Santana's job hunt took another step forward today as the former Cy Young winner threw off the mound with "a few teams" on hand to watch -- and the Twins being one of them says the Pioneer Press's Mike Berardino.

 

Santana tweeted out that the mound session had felt good along with an accompanying picture of him in the process:

 

There is sentiment around the game that it will be at least until mid-season before Santana will be either ready or signed by a team.

 

According to an NYPost.com article, Santana's workout did not go so great -- at least velocity-wise:

 

Tim Naehring represented the Yankees at the workout in which Santana topped out at 81 mph, pitched between 77 and 78 mph and mixed in an impressive changeup.

 

Woof.

[nicksaviking]

I think the reports I hear expect him sometime in June if all goes well. I'm not sure how the rehab time table works though. To me it seems odd a guy would be throwing off the mound now if he won't be rehabilitated enough to pitch for another four months or so.

[ashbury]

Is it just me, or does he look heavy in that photo?

[thetank]

If he can start 10 games this year someone will have to give him a 3 year contract worth $30 million or more.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Tim Naehring represented the Yankees at the workout in which Santana topped out at 81 mph, pitched between 77 and 78 mph and mixed in an impressive changeup that rolled over the plate.

 

Fixed.

[Halsey Hall]

He pitched for the Twins a few weeks ago at a local high school. From what I was told, he'd be here now, but really doesn't want to go thru all the spring training drills, so is waiting. I expect him to sign just before camp breaks.

[Willihammer]

Helsey you got a kid in high school right? I would be really curious to get a radar gun reading.

[tellis205]

I'm all for him coming back. Nothing would make me happier. I'm assuming that they think he'll be able to get the velo up significantly. Because unless he hikes it up to a regular 87-88 mph, he's not gonna be effective out there. Signing and being willing to go down and proving himself regularly before being called up would help. But he's a thoroughbred and I don't think he's gonna want to do that.

[Monkeypaws]

It would suck to see him go out there and be a shadow of his former self and get hammered. If the Twins get him, I hope we would be spared that.

[Nick Nelson]

I'm on board for bringing him back (because why not) but it's important to be realistic. There's probably less than a 5% chance Johan is ever an effective MLB pitcher again. Two shoulder capsule surgeries are no joke, and he's 35.

[ericchri]

I'm curious if he's willing to be a bullpen arm at this point or if he's dead-set on being only a starter again. I'd bet Bruce Chen levels of performance wouldn't be too hard to fathom for most people, and he's been kind of floating back and forth between starting and relief the last couple years. I hope things go well from here, I'd love to see him scrape together a few more decent seasons in any fashion.

[Halsey Hall]

Helsey you got a kid in high school right? I would be really curious to get a radar gun reading.

 

No kids for me!

[Willihammer]

No kids for me!

 

Catholic big brother?

Scout leader?

Assistant groundskeeper?

[Thrylos]

The Twins got to sign him:

 

a. LHP Brooks Raley

RHP Todd Van Steensel

LHP Sean Gilmartin

LHP Kris Johnson

RHP Virgil Vasquez

 

these are the starters the Twins signed/re-signed/acquired this off-season. Which one of them will put more rear ends on seats in Fort Myers, New Britain and Rochester than Johan?

 

B. Lets say that after a successful rehab/tour of the aforementioned places the Twins add him to the 40 man roster. Who doubts that the first 2 games he is scheduled to start at Target Field are sold out?

[jimv2]

Who doubts that the first 2 games he is scheduled to start at Target Field are sold out?

 

I don't doubt it.

 

But let's think about the math. I'll guess that a sellout is worth 3 mil of revenue. If he doesn't pitch those games, they only get 1 mil per game. So him pitching those two games is worth 4 mil. Assume Nick's high end is right--that he has a 5% chance of making it. Five percent of 4 mil is 200k. So assuming I've taken everything into account--and I didn't, this is way oversimplified--if it costs over 200k to sign him, it's not worth it.

 

I'd be delighted to see someone adjust the math for the nuances I blew off. But the point is that knowing he'd fill the seats isn't enough. THey'll look at the odds of success (who knows if they agree with the 5%) and all the costs of signing him. And then they'll do the math.

 

If we thought that Johan would be the differnce between making playoff and not, then there would be an intangible factor that precludes you from just thinking about the math. But it takes one heck of an optimist to think Johan can do that for us.

[nicksaviking]

I don't doubt it.

 

But let's think about the math. I'll guess that a sellout is worth 3 mil of revenue. If he doesn't pitch those games, they only get 1 mil per game. So him pitching those two games is worth 4 mil. Assume Nick's high end is right--that he has a 5% chance of making it. Five percent of 4 mil is 200k. So assuming I've taken everything into account--and I didn't, this is way oversimplified--if it costs over 200k to sign him, it's not worth it.

 

I'd be delighted to see someone adjust the math for the nuances I blew off. But the point is that knowing he'd fill the seats isn't enough. THey'll look at the odds of success (who knows if they agree with the 5%) and all the costs of signing him. And then they'll do the math.

 

I like the train of thought, but it just doesn't seem to work for sports, particularly baseball. Otherwise there'd never be a reason to sign Kurt Suzuki, Jamey Carroll or even Matt Guerrier to a minor league deal.

 

Although I suppose one could argue not to sign any of the above.

[notoriousgod71]

His velocity has Anderson salivating.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

His velocity has Anderson salivating.

 

*groan*

 

Seriously though, if he can again get his fastball back into the high 80s regularly, he will pitch again. I think every Twins fan is rooting for him. He won't pitch again for the Twins though, as our pitching philosophy is to attack the strike zone -- no snark intended -- and Santana is now a pitcher who needs to be more crafty. This is what Santana himself said when he came back in 2012 after his first surgery. His K/9 in 2012 was 8.5, which is amazing if you think about it.