The BA Twins top ten prospect list is out.

[Thrylos]

Will be released at their web site tomorrow, but it is out in the print edition. Here it is:

 

1.Byron Buxton

2.Miguel Sano

3.Alex Meyer

4.Kohl Stewart

5.J.O. Berrios

6.Eddie Rosario

7.Lewis Thorpe

8.Trevor May

9.Danny Santana

10.Jorge Polanco

 

Interesting list in many respects... Cannot really argue about the top 4 (other than flipping a couple of positions,) but some of the rest are really interesting. I think that this is a good sign and speaks to the depth of prospects in the organization. There are about 20 players who made different top ten lists.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They're certainly bullish on Thorpe and Berrios.

 

Also, no Kepler.

[Brad Swanson]

It's interesting to note that BA makes their lists based in large part on what they hear from the actual organization. As such, their lists often reflect how the organization feels about their prospects, in contrast to BP which scouts the prospects on their own.

[Thrylos]

They're certainly bullish on Thorpe and Berrios.

 

Also, no Kepler.

 

No Kepler is not much of a surprise. Some people are really high on Thorpe so I get that; Berrios also is in most top 10 lists. Danny Santana surprises me. I cannot see him in many Twins' top ten lists.

[nicksaviking]

BA has always loved the shortstops. Santana seems high but surely it's due to the position scarcity. Interesting that May is back up to 8th. I still think he can make the leap, but I haven't seen him this high in awhile.

[Seth Stohs]

BA has always loved Santana. I think I have him #15. I can't argue with the Top 7, though I have Polanco in with those guys. May is a little high, and Santana is a little high. But, of course any of us is going to disagree a little bit with any list that isn't the exact same as our own. Ha! May has a chance. He's got the stuff. Santana certainly has the tools. No question. Pinto not being in there is a bit surprising.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No Kepler is not much of a surprise. Some people are really high on Thorpe so I get that; Berrios also is in most top 10 lists. Danny Santana surprises me. I cannot see him in many Twins' top ten lists.

 

No, Kepler isn't a huge surprise, just noting that he's not on the list.

 

Berrios is definitely a top ten prospect, I was merely surprised that they had him at #5, right behind Stewart.

 

Then again, with the Rosario suspension, maybe that isn't such a surprise.

[PseudoSABR]

When's the last time the Twins had 5 arms in the Top 10? It's encouraging that BA still thinks highly of May, especially in context of our stacked system.

[Vervehound]

It's interesting to note that BA makes their lists based in large part on what they hear from the actual organization. As such, their lists often reflect how the organization feels about their prospects, in contrast to BP which scouts the prospects on their own.

 

b.a. writers visit the leagues they write about and talk to managers and staff throughout a league in the summer and fall. they weight that with their own impressions when doing an analysis.

 

for the top 30's they do in the prospect handbook, they need to talk to an org to see what kind of progress a guy has made in the offseason, especially for a rookie baller. the league top prospects lists that come out in the fall wouldn't include players ranked in the bottom half of those org lists, so they need to be more reliant on an org's opinion because of the depth of their analysis. i don't think b.p. does a top 30 but if they did, they'd likely have to follow the same process.

[Kwak]

It's interesting to note that BA makes their lists based in large part on what they hear from the actual organization. As such, their lists often reflect how the organization feels about their prospects, in contrast to BP which scouts the prospects on their own.

 

If, as posted, the ranking is in large part from the organization (Twins), the ranking for May could be inflated due to input from the Twins.

 

Could the omission of Pinto be because he is already deemed "Major League" and thus no longer a "prospect"?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Mike Berardino handles the Twins for BA now and, as a former BA staffer, probably got as much or more input from other sources as the rest of the guys putting lists together. We are well aware that Mike will turn every stone over. Mike will host the BA Twins chat tomorrow afternoon.

 

Kepler will be #11 in the top 30.

[Seth Stohs]

If, as posted, the ranking is in large part from the organization (Twins), the ranking for May could be inflated due to input from the Twins.

 

Could the omission of Pinto be because he is already deemed "Major League" and thus no longer a "prospect"?

 

The BA guys talk to many in the Twins organization and other organizations about the players. They've put in their time, and then they come up with their own list.

 

Their rules are the same as mine for what a "prospect" is, and that's 130 AB for a hitter or 50 IP for a pitcher. Pinto is under that.

[gunnarthor]

I like the May ranking - I think a lot of us are under rating him. He's insanely durable - 150ip the last three years - and he has some ability to miss bats. His control can get a bit wonky but he still has #3 upside and his floor is pretty safe - strong bullpen arm. I like him a lot and think he'll end up being a better MLer than minor leaguer.

[Brad Swanson]

Sorry, I should clarify what I said earlier. BA talks to the organization about the players and uses that to rank the players, not to write about them. They do form their own impressions and they do go look at them. I know for a fact that I've heard John Manuel say that they largely rank the prospects based on how they feel the organization feels about the players.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Santana gets more love than I can figure out.

He has not had an OPS of .740 or greater since he was a 17 year old in rookie ball.

 

I know batting isn't everything, especially when speaking of a SS.

Still, his MiLB numbers are not that eye-popping.

[markos]

Pinto is a noteworthy omission. I'm curious why they are down on him. It must be age or defense related?

 

Additionally, I wonder how much this reflects how the Twins feel about Pinto, if BA weights their ranking based on organizational opinion as Brad suggested. Perhaps the Twins aren't nearly as high on Pinto as I thought.

[TRex]

I am not sure I buy the 'organization opinion' for ranking. Maybe for whom to include in the top 30... but not the order of the top 10.

 

If the team-specific rankings (i.e. top 10) are driven by the organization's opinions, but the BA top-100 is all writer-driven, we should be able to find multiple examples where the numbers don't match up... right?

[lightfoot789]

Baseball America had Adam Brett Walker II as the #31 ranked prospect in last years handbook. He was only listed if you received the extra prospect edition (Top 30 + 1). I told folks last year that Adam Brett Walker was my breakout prospect and he did nothing to disappoint. (Midwest League / Topps MVP - 2nd in MiLB in RBIs - 27 HRs - and yes only a .319 OBP - but 2nd in Midwest League & 1st in Cedar Rapids in Runs scored). That being said: If (like all prospects) - he can continue to cut his K rate (30% in 2012 to 20% in 2013) and improve his BB rate - he might have a chance to move up on their ranking list.

 

For the record - I see Walker improving again - He is my BREAKOUT player of the year again for 2014. For those who disagree - Name another player who had 25+ HRs and struck out with a K rate less than 20% (maybe a handful). For his production (27 HRs & 109 RBIs) he does not strike out too much IMO. I stand to say that his K rate is rather rare for that production. I just know one thing - HE WINS - "The intangible we need in MN" - Can't wait to see where he ranks in extended ranking edition.

[bird]

Gotta be excited about 5 pitchers on the list, with so many other pitching prospects just off the list (Jorge Felix, Stephen Gonsalves). This is going to be fun.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I would take our 11-15 against any team's:

Rosario-Gonsalves-Pinto-Kepler-Jorge

[Zephrin]

I would take our 11-15 against any team's:

Rosario-Gonsalves-Pinto-Kepler-Jorge

 

Which, coupled with the 1-2 punch of Buxton/Sano at the top, is why most people that aren't Houston homers think the Twins have the best farm in baseball right now.

[jokin]

I wish they would sign Johan Santana just to have JO Berrios hang with him for 3 months or so. Physically, they are almost identical, if Berrios were to learn and master Santana's change-up technique, I think it would further justify his lofty ranking from BA.

[North Dakota Twins Fan]

Alex Meyer above Kohl Stewart is interesting to me. Maybe because Meyer is much closer to being major ready? Stewart is only 19 years old I think.

[shs_59]

Pinto not ranking inside the top 10 , has got to be my biggest suprise.

 

but i'd really like to know BA's top 20. My guess:

 

1. Bux

2. Sanow

3. Meyer

4. Stewart

5. Berrios (!)

6. Rosario

7. Thorpe (!)

8. May (?♪♪♥ ♀§Φ☺§♀☻!)

9. Santana (suprise)

10. Polanco

----

? - Kepler

? - Harrison

? - Pinto

? - Eades

? - A.B. Walker

--

some combo of Sulbaran, Gilmartin, Melotakis , Turner and either Jorge or Goodrum.

 

(as many of you know my list is quite a bit different)

 

But BA's list >>>> than mlb.com Jonathan Mayo's list with no Thorpe or Pinto or Walker inside the TOP 20 !?!?!?!? [crazy eyes]

[diehardtwinsfan]

Pinto surprises me. I think Berrios is a bit too high too... Guess they really really like him.

 

and yes, Santana has no business being on this list.... Perhaps I'm missing something about him, but I don't get the love. He's looking like he'll be a slightly better version of Florimon. That's not a bad prospect, but hardly a top 10 one in a deep system.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alex Meyer above Kohl Stewart is interesting to me. Maybe because Meyer is much closer to being major ready? Stewart is only 19 years old I think.

 

I don't see how Stewart can be ranked above Meyer at this point. Meyer just finished his age 23 season at AA striking out almost 11 batters per 9 innings. Stewart has all of 20 professional innings under his belt.

 

If Meyer doesn't graduate to the Majors for whatever reason, it wouldn't surprise me if those slots are flipped going into next offseason but right now, Stewart's talent doesn't outweigh his lack of experience.

[Thrylos]

Pinto not ranking inside the top 10 , has got to be my biggest suprise.

 

But BA's list >>>> than mlb.com Jonathan Mayo's list with no Thorpe or Pinto or Walker inside the TOP 20 !?!?!?!? [crazy eyes]

 

In a lot of lists Pinto (and Herrmann and Hicks and Arcia) has graduated and he is not regarded a prospect any more because of those 83 MLB PAs and because he will likely is the Twins starting C. IMO, if you played in the majors, you are done as a prospect.

 

I do like the MLB.com list better and not willing to jump on the Thorpe (or Sulbaran or Jorge) bandwagons quite yet. Maybe after this season. Walker needs to get on base more. A college kid with a .310 and .319 OBP in the last 2 seasons is not a top 10 prospect. Add 115 K in 508 ABs to that low OBP and you might be getting the picture. If he increases his walk rate and gets his OBP closer to .350, then he might be on the radar. At this point he is not much better prospect than someone like DJ Hicks (who is better with the bat, but not with his glove)

[gunnarthor]

For the record - I see Walker improving again - He is my BREAKOUT player of the year again for 2014. For those who disagree - Name another player who had 25+ HRs and struck out with a K rate less than 20% (maybe a handful). For his production (27 HRs & 109 RBIs) he does not strike out too much IMO. I stand to say that his K rate is rather rare for that production. I just know one thing - HE WINS - "The intangible we need in MN" - Can't wait to see where he ranks in extended ranking edition.

 

Actually, Walker's k-rate was about 21%. I think this will be a big year for him but the Twins have been pretty cautious with him - college guy still hasn't reached high A. His lack of plate discipline probably prevents him from making the majors but, as Jason Parks noted, if he gets it together, he's a first division type player. (And it's not really his strike outs that are the problem - although he k'd way too much for an advanced bat in A ball - but it's his lack of walks that is killing him). Really nice lottery ticket to have, solid 3rd round pick but he's still a long shot.

[gunnarthor]

Mike Berardino handles the Twins for BA now and, as a former BA staffer, probably got as much or more input from other sources as the rest of the guys putting lists together. We are well aware that Mike will turn every stone over. Mike will host the BA Twins chat tomorrow afternoon.

 

Kepler will be #11 in the top 30.

 

Is the chat available to everyone or just BA subscribers?

[halfchest]

In regards to Santana. I've thrown him under the bus in other threads (the Stephen Drew one specifically). This peaked my interest. He's been fairly young for each level and he wouldn't be the first guy we've seen take some major strides in his later seasons. He hasn't been a flop but he may well be a useful guy. If he is a true defensive whiz, maybe he's a top of the league defensive guy with an ok hit tool. His OBP has been about .330 the past two years compared to a career .318. Maybe as he matures he gets a little better eye and improves his stealing rate as well. I still don't see him as a top ten guy but I guess there must be a decent argument for it. Career minor league OPS is about 40 points higher than Florimon and he played the levels at a younger age for what that's worth.

 

I think we've all said if Florimon could just hit a little better he could suddenly become a valuable player. Maybe Santana is that guy. I'm a bit pessimistic on him but who knows.