What kind of trade value does Sano have

[drivlikejehu]

Trade all-star 3B for "ace." Ace blows out shoulder. Franchise toast for 10 years. Sign me up.

[josecordoba]

Let's assume good health for Sano (with the shoulder). I then took a look at Jonah Keri's Trade Value chart. This chart would be specific for the Twins. I probably wouldn't trade Sano for David Price just because of where the Twins would be on the Win Curve.

 

Players whose value would seem to be similar

-Matt Moore-TB

-Jurickson Profar-Tex

-Xander Boegarts- Bos

-Kyle Seager- Sea

-Shelby Miller-Sea

 

Sano's the best power-hitting prospect in the Minors and power tends to seems to be a valued skill as evidenced by the Trumbo trade.

 

Just for the record- Buxton's value would seem to be similar to Will Myers or Yasiel Puig. This is how high Buxton's value would seem to be.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, take a look at the hypothetical trade from the other team's perspective. If you're the Phillies, do you deal Hamels for Sano, straight up? If that's even close to "yes" then the Twins probably shouldn't take that deal.

 

Regardless of where the Twins are at in their "success cycle", they should spend their cash before dealing prospects. They still basically need improved players at ALL positions, not just ace, not just 3B.

[TheLeviathan]

Trade all-star 3B for "ace." Ace blows out shoulder. Franchise toast for 10 years. Sign me up.

 

By that logic we should never do anything. It's just not the right way to justify it.

[drivlikejehu]

By that logic we should never do anything. It's just not the right way to justify it.

 

Pitchers are riskier than position players. That's just a fact. Trading Sano for a pitcher would be utterly insane. The chances of it happening are literally zero. You may as well speculate on the odds Joe Mauer is moved to shortstop.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pitchers are riskier than position players. That's just a fact. Trading Sano for a pitcher would be utterly insane. The chances of it happening are literally zero. You may as well speculate on the odds Joe Mauer is moved to shortstop.

 

Not to mention that when it comes to pure "wins", a position player is more valuable than a pitcher. A 66 win team needs better players and a lot of them. Position players that supply 2-4 wins are easier to find than their pitching equivalent and they generally cost less. It's also more common to see superstar position players that will deliver as many 7-8 wins in a season.

 

Elite pitching is rarer, which makes it harder to find and more expensive to purchase.

 

But when you're looking for wins, which the Twins are, your best bet is to do that through position players, not by giving up the farm for elite pitching. When you're a playoff team, that elite pitching can be the difference between an ALDS sweep and the World Series but the Twins aren't a playoff team... Nothing close to a playoff team. Right now, they need reliable players that deliver wins. That means better position players and "good enough" pitching, maybe with upside to be better than that.

[thetank]

Let's assume good health for Sano (with the shoulder). I then took a look at Jonah Keri's Trade Value chart. This chart would be specific for the Twins. I probably wouldn't trade Sano for David Price just because of where the Twins would be on the Win Curve.

 

Players whose value would seem to be similar

-Matt Moore-TB

-Jurickson Profar-Tex

-Xander Boegarts- Bos

-Kyle Seager- Sea

-Shelby Miller-Sea

 

Sano's the best power-hitting prospect in the Minors and power tends to seems to be a valued skill as evidenced by the Trumbo trade.

 

Just for the record- Buxton's value would seem to be similar to Will Myers or Yasiel Puig. This is how high Buxton's value would seem to be.

 

Shelby Miller is with St. Louis. Would you trade Sano for Shelby Miller? Shelby won 15 games as a rookie this year. What about Sano for Lance Lynn of the Cardinals or Joe Kelly of the Cards?

[TheLeviathan]

Pitchers are riskier than position players. That's just a fact. Trading Sano for a pitcher would be utterly insane. The chances of it happening are literally zero. You may as well speculate on the odds Joe Mauer is moved to shortstop.

 

All of that is fine and good but you can doomsday any scenario like that comment above. That justification is unnecessary and silly. There are lots of less silly, more valid reasons not to deal Sano.

[drivlikejehu]

All of that is fine and good but you can doomsday any scenario like that comment above. That justification is unnecessary and silly. There are lots of less silly, more valid reasons not to deal Sano.

 

Sorry, but when an idea has so little merit (zero), it tends to deserve a briefer response.

[Monkeypaws]

Everyone knows the starting rotation was job 1 for Ryan, but let's not forget how crap the offense has been these last 3 seasons:

 

2011, 13th in AL runs

2012, 10th

2013, 13th

 

Dead last in home runs 2 of those seasons.

 

Sano is a long-term piece that can held reverse that trend. To trade him for more pitching would be a big mistake.

[Tibs]

Who wins more games for their team, Justin Verlander or Miguel Cabrera?

[Siehbiscuit]

The original question I posted should have included an extension for David Price (approximately a deal at $23-25/yr through 2020). In this scenario, we pay for a known quantity versus a potential HOF bat.

 

Does that change anything for anyone? Sano's age 22-27 season under team control (although arb will be expensive by 2017-2020, let alone re-signing him) or Price?

 

I love the idea of having Sano be a life-long Twin. Do we just ride him until FA? Can we afford to keep both he and Buxton on elite contracts? Arcia, Meyers will also be extremely expensive at the same time if they both project as we believe they will. Would staggering the salaries be advantageous?

 

2014: Price, Nolasco, Hughes, Correia and Gibson/Deduno

2015: Price, Nolasco, Meyer, Hughes and Gibson

2016: Price, Nolasco, Meyer, Hughes and Gibson

2017: Price, Meyer, Nolasco, Gibson & Stewart

2018: Meyer, Price, Gibson, Stewart & Thorpe/Berrios

 

That is how championships are built. Strong pitching. We can't have our cake and eat it too. Sano would be a huge loss. But Price is an elite pitcher that is a proven commodity. The SF Giants won a WS with a limited offense, but great pitching. Pitching wins in the post-season. Sano for an extended Price? I am a YES.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Who wins more games for their team, Justin Verlander or Miguel Cabrera?

 

Not sure if this is rhetorical or not but... Miguel Cabrera.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gentlemen, please tone down the bickering.

 

Thank you.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Brock, got to disagree here. I'd argue that Verlander, when pitching like an ace, is going to be move valuable. I get that he pitches once every 5 games, but the pitcher has far more influence over the course of that game than a hitter will.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock, got to disagree here. I'd argue that Verlander, when pitching like an ace, is going to be move valuable. I get that he pitches once every 5 games, but the pitcher has far more influence over the course of that game than a hitter will.

 

Upon further thinking, Miggy and Verlander aren't the best comparisons. They're probably about equal and WAR supports that thinking. What kills Miggy is his defense.

 

But compare Mike Trout to Verlander and I firmly believe that Trout is more valuable over 162 games. Verlander dominates once every five games but Trout helps the team win 150+ times a season.

[Tibs]

Not sure if this is rhetorical or not but... Miguel Cabrera.

 

No it was an honest question. I agree with you that position players are more valuable in terms of wins over an 162 game season.

[drivlikejehu]

The most valuable commodity in baseball is cost-controlled impact talent. Teams essentially never trade players in that category unless they are about to be free agents.

 

Sano at $500,000 is, by a massive, huge, gargantuan amount, more valuable than Price at $25 million. It's not even close or subject to any possible debate.

[amjgt]

In any given offseason we could throw 24.5 million at the best pitcher available. He might not be QUITE to Price's level, but he'd probably be close.

 

At that point we have Sano and "almost Price" instead of just Price and the money is equal

[jokin]

I guess that's true... But there's a 95+% chance that phone call will never come so it's really a moot point.

 

Moot point? I would wager that Ryan takes calls that eventually bring up Sano's status on a weekly, if not daily basis, as Sano's career blossoms further, those calls will become more frequent and more intense in the interest level (and the "what's it gonna take?" level).

[John Bonnes]

Here's one way to look at it that I don't think has been mentioned.

 

If you polled all 30 General Managers, how many would choose one versus the other. In the case of Sano-Price, off the top of my head, I think I'd say 20-25 would choose Sano. If someone wants to take stab at that, it might make for a fun way to spend 15 minutes this offseason.

[drivlikejehu]

Here's one way to look at it that I don't think has been mentioned.

 

If you polled all 30 General Managers, how many would choose one versus the other. In the case of Sano-Price, off the top of my head, I think I'd say 20-25 would choose Sano. If someone wants to take stab at that, it might make for a fun way to spend 15 minutes this offseason.

 

The problem is that you need to establish the terms of Price's contract.

 

Without an extension, all 30 take Sano, no question.

 

With a reasonable extension, 25 or so take Sano, but of course we don't have enough information to make a precise estimate.

 

Some posters have been looking forward and assuming Sano comes up and establishes himself as a top young player. In that instance, all 30 would again prefer Sano, without a doubt.

[John Bonnes]

The problem is that you need to establish the terms of Price's contract.

 

Without an extension, all 30 take Sano, no question.

 

With a reasonable extension, 25 or so take Sano, but of course we don't have enough information to make a precise estimate.

 

Some posters have been looking forward and assuming Sano comes up and establishes himself as a top young player. In that instance, all 30 would again prefer Sano, without a doubt.

 

I don't think all 30 take Sano. But we can come up with a reasonable estimate based on Sabathia and Santana's deals. How about they rip up his existing deal and hand him a 7-year, $175M contract?

[drivlikejehu]

I don't think all 30 take Sano. But we can come up with a reasonable estimate based on Sabathia and Santana's deals. How about they rip up his existing deal and hand him a 7-year, $175M contract?

 

We can look back at how many teams were willing to offer that kind of money to Sabathia and Santana, as a starting point. There weren't very many.

 

I'm confident that all 30 would take Sano as of today. The reason is straightforward - once a team had Sano, they would easily be able to trade him for Price, or Cliff Lee, or another top starter if they so chose.

 

Price is a commodity that only is an option for a handful of clubs. Sano is a commodity that everyone wants, which offers much more flexibility (and thus potential utility).

[Teflon]

Unless the Twins have a great underground pharmaceutical lab, don't expect Sano's power to build into his late 20s. It's starting to look like after the PED ban that players' power curves don't peak and decline - they just decline.

 

Are Aging Curves Changing? from Fangraphs

[Guest USAFChief]

The most valuable commodity in baseball is cost-controlled impact talent. Teams essentially never trade players in that category unless they are about to be free agents.

 

Sano at $500,000 is, by a massive, huge, gargantuan amount, more valuable than Price at $25 million. It's not even close or subject to any possible debate.

One possible area of debate would be that while we know Sano is cost controlled, we certainly DON'T know he's "impact talent."

 

Id go so far as to say that what isn't close or subject to debate is that in the near future--2014 for sure--Price will be more valuable than Sano in terms of winning MLB games, which is, after all, the goal.

[Thrylos]

Unless the Twins have a great underground pharmaceutical lab, don't expect Sano's power to build into his late 20s. It's starting to look like after the PED ban that players' power curves don't peak and decline - they just decline.

 

Are Aging Curves Changing? from Fangraphs

 

 

Apples and pineapples (that is wOBA and wRC+ and not isoP or HRs). And Small Sample Size bias on either size (like how many 19, 20 and 21 year olds and 39, 40 and 41 year olds were in the majors) skews the curve on both edges. I suspect that the rest of it (25-35 or so) where there is a significant sample size the variations are between the standard deviation, so all curves are identical.

 

Unless they provide sample size (and it is significant on the edges, like p<0.01 or something), you cannot be confident with the conclusion they are reaching.

 

All it takes is one Trout and one Harper to skew your data that way, if you have an age group size of 2.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One possible area of debate would be that while we know Sano is cost controlled, we certainly DON'T know he's "impact talent."

 

Id go so far as to say that what isn't close or subject to debate is that in the near future--2014 for sure--Price will be more valuable than Sano in terms of winning MLB games, which is, after all, the goal.

 

I think that's very much up for debate. Look at Wil Myers and James Shields in 2013. I know you don't like WAR much but Shields was a ~4 win player while Myers was a 2.5 win player in less than two-thirds of a season. Whether you like WAR or not, Myers was a valuable player by almost any metric.

 

I don't expect Sano to come up and dominate that quickly, most guys don't post Myers-esque rookie seasons. But it's not cut-and-dried, either. Sano has a chance to come up and be a valuable player almost immediately if he's healthy.

 

Price has a huge advantage in being more valuable in 2014 but it's not impossible that both players stay healthy and have similar impacts for their respective teams.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Apples and pineapples (that is wOBA and wRC+ and not isoP or HRs). And Small Sample Size bias on either size (like how many 19, 20 and 21 year olds and 39, 40 and 41 year olds were in the majors) skews the curve on both edges. I suspect that the rest of it (25-35 or so) where there is a significant sample size the variations are between the standard deviation, so all curves are identical.

 

Unless they provide sample size (and it is significant on the edges, like p

 

All it takes is one Trout and one Harper to skew your data that way, if you have an age group size of 2.

 

Yep. Most guys aren't in the Majors at age 23, much less age 21. Only the best players are going to get significant playing time at that age while the age 26-28 seasons are rife with middling prospects who take time to mature or bomb out of MLB entirely.