Article: Twins To Sign Phil Hughes

[Riverbrian]

I was not a Hughes fan but I am now.

 

The FA arms available were what they were. TR just jumped up grabbed two of the best choices.

 

It's great. At the very least... New blood in the clubhouse. The old blood wasn't doing so well.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

His strikeout rate is mediocre (7.6 K/9 for his career)

 

For a starter that's definitely not mediocre in my book. I actually think that's above average.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

Also lets not forget how bad AJ Burnett was when he played for the Yankees. Some people just cant handle playing in New York for whatever reason, whether it be the homer friendly park or all the pressure of playing in the BIG Apple. Lets hope Hughes can turn his career around like Burnett have been able to.

[howeda7]

I'm happy with both moves. Only time will tell if they were the right choices, but I agree with being shocked at TR shelling out $73 million. I wouldn't mind a low-risk 3rd pitcher. Johan perhaps. Maybe Pelfrey, though I'm not that excited to give him 2 years.

[halfchest]

Surprised by the 3 year commitment like the AAV for sure. With the Twins current and foreseeable payroll this is fine though. Could really capitalize on Hughes if he gets it going in Minnesota. Worst case he doesn't pan out and you can convert him to a reliever where he's been successful in the past. Expensive for a reliever but could still show value there. That's a worst case scenario though. I'm gonna hope for 3 years of around a 4.00 ERA

[Brad Swanson]

You can all make fun of me if you'd like, but I'm excited to see what Rick Anderson can do with Hughes. He throws a flat fastball and needs to work low in the zone to avoid home runs. Plus, he could really benefit from a third pitch - changeup perhaps? Maybe Anderson and Hughes can save their careers together!

[johnnydakota]

You can all make fun of me if you'd like, but I'm excited to see what Rick Anderson can do with Hughes. He throws a flat fastball and needs to work low in the zone to avoid home runs. Plus, he could really benefit from a third pitch - changeup perhaps? Maybe Anderson and Hughes can save their careers together!

 

Um we alredy do , this is just icing on the cake ...

[johnnydakota]

Now the real question , who gets DFAd or who gets traded?

[FlsPrpht]

"But there are several caveats to those numbers that made Hughes to other teams, including the Royals, Marlins and Mets. "

[Kwak]

Shelling out $73MM?? Last season the payroll started at nearly $83MM for the entire season. It's not like the Twins are spending like the government.

[Marta Shearing]

Now sign AJ!

[Shane Wahl]

Holy hell I have to eat my words.

[FlsPrpht]

JR? Jeremy Roenick?

 

3 years worth it? IDK. People who wanted JR. to gamble must be happy. Thats about 20 mil a year for 2 pitchers. Salty for 10 a year would be pretty awesome and I would bet make the total still under 100 (96 off the top of my head).

[FlsPrpht]

We're laughing with him not at him!

 

Um we alredy do , this is just icing on the cake ...

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

Holy hell I have to eat my words.

 

Most of us do....Most of us do.

[Shane Wahl]

This $8 million per year makes me calm down about Nolasco's $12 million per year. Getting these two for $20 million per year works out pretty well.

[nicksaviking]

I don't like the years but I love the aggressiveness. Well done.

 

It wouldn't take much in the first year for the $8 million per year to look good either.

 

Last year the Cubs overpaid for back end free agent pitchers. Perhaps Ryan is going to now cause every other team to over pay in years for mid to back of the rotation arms.

[Twins Twerp]

Sources say AJ is next. Who am I going to boo now? My question is…will you still boo AJ even if he is a Twin?

[SwainZag]

Why are so many people not happy with this signing? Look deeper than W-L and ERA folks.

 

He had a FIP of 4.50, while which wasn't good, but was almost a run lower than his ERA.

 

He also performed MUCH, MUCH better outside the bandbox that is Yankee stadium. Let's not forget the division he pitched in.

 

Home: 6.32 ERA, 22 2B, 17 HR

Road: 3.88 ERA, 16 2B, 7 HR

 

Move him to Target Field with a better defensive team, I love this signing. I like it more than Nolasco even.

[twinsanity]

Sources say AJ is next. Who am I going to boo now? My question is…will you still boo AJ even if he is a Twin?

 

This is a boo proof plan. You sign AJ and no one will ever boo Joe again!

[shs_59]

For 1 year ? I'd have rather had AJ Burnett.

 

for 3 years ? Well thats easy PHIL HUGHES! -- over Burnett, Arroyo, Garza, Santana all of 'em i guess.

 

But 2 years for $ 15, 16 Million would of been about perfect.

Look at it this way:

 

the Twins are Paying P. Hughes 24 Million to make 90-93 starts for them essentially right?

 

well I think EVEN the Twins know, they'd be Thrilled, happy; If Hughes made 65-68 starts for them with maybe a few relief apperances in there in the next 3 years.

 

I think he'll make about 45-50 starts and about 15-20+ relief appearances between 2014-2016.

 

With something like a 7.8 K per 9 , 3.0 BB per 9 , 3.95 XFip , 4.15 ERA , and 1.5 HR per 9 or about 22-25 HRS given up a season.

 

* Hughes averages about 92.0 MPH on his Fastball !!!! Perk and Tonkin the Tank can only top that. (untill Meyer, Berrios, May)

* Hopefully his other Fastball is a Mariano like Cutter and not a two-seamer....

* Hughes has a mid 70's curve-ball , a low 80's slider , a mid 80's change up too !!!

5 pitch pitcher

[PseudoSABR]

Interesting exchange between to statistical analytic types (note: Law thinks the deal is excessive):

 

• keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 1h
  New post for Insiders - thoughts on Phil Hughes' reported 3-year deal with the Twins: http://klaw.me/1bzByxh
   
  
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  [*] David Cameron ‏@DCameronFG 1h

  @keithlaw Don't disagree that FIP/xFIP can miss on guys, but Hughes has career .294 BABIP and 10.2% HR/FB.

   

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  [*] keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 1h

  @DCameronFG higher last few years which is the version the Twins signed

   

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  [*] David Cameron ‏@DCameronFG 1h

  @keithlaw Last 3 years, .303 BABIP and 11.1% HR/FB. Still pretty much average by both.

   

   

   

[frightwig]

Hughes had a 5.19 ERA (-0.7 rWAR) this year, 4.85 ERA over the last 3 years. In 2 of the last 3 years, his value has been below replacement level. Why guarantee $24M/3 years to a guy like that, on the slight chance that a change of scene will cure him?

 

Last winter, everyone was so pissed about Correia's $10/2 deal. This year, Ryan is throwing even bigger deals at below-average pitchers, and most everyone seems thrilled to see him spend the money. On guys who are not really GOOD, but NEVER MIND! I don't get it.

[John Bonnes]

In most cases, a 3-year deal for a mediocre pitcher seems like a win for the pitcher, and it is. But in this case, which so much being bet on improvement and so muc room for upside, I think it might end up being a win for the Twins. I wouldn't be shocked if by the end of 2015, Hughes isn't wishing he was hitting the free agent market as a 29-year-old.

[Zephrin]

Hughes had a 5.19 ERA (-0.7 rWAR) this year, 4.85 ERA over the last 3 years. In 2 of the last 3 years, his value has been below replacement level. Why guarantee $24M/3 years to a guy like that, on the slight chance that a change of scene will cure him?

 

Last winter, everyone was so pissed about Correia's $10/2 deal. This year, Ryan is throwing even bigger deals at below-average pitchers, and most everyone seems thrilled to see him spend the money. On guys who are not really GOOD, but NEVER MIND! I don't get it.

 

The difference to me is that Correia basically pitched to his ceiling last year for the money we gave him - which is a #5 innings eater type in a respectable rotation. $5 million is a lot to pay for a guy who is essentially a replacement level pitcher, which we can get for $500K (see Albers, Andrew; Diamond, Scott), and guaranteeing it for 2 years seemed asinine to me at the time and still does today.

 

Hughes, on the other hand, has the stuff and peripherals of a #3 pitcher if he pulls it all together. $8 million per year is a steal if he pitches to that level (Remember, we just gave $12 million per year to Nolasco, who many view as a #4 in a decent rotation, and most agree got basically a market-value contract.) And while there is risk in the contract, Hughes floor (if healthy) is probably a decent relief pitcher. None of us want to pay $8 million per year to a non-closer in the bullpen, but many of the other pitchers on the market have a lot lower floors than that.

 

So yes, in general I do feel better about the Hughes deal than I did (and do) feel about the Correia deal.

[ScrapTheNickname]

Sources say AJ is next. Who am I going to boo now? My question is…will you still boo AJ even if he is a Twin?

 

I never understood why Twins fans booed AJ in the first place. He didn't demand to leave like C. Knoblauch, for instance, he was traded away. The booers just seemed uninformed to me.

[James]

I never understood why Twins fans booed AJ in the first place. He didn't demand to leave like C. Knoblauch, for instance, he was traded away. The booers just seemed uninformed to me.

 

The booing comes from all kinds of bad mouthing he did about the Twins organization after they traded him. At least that is what I recall. It was so long ago, I don't even remember why I boo him. It just is tradition at this point.

 

As for Hughes, I really like the price. The years are a bit of a gamble, but let's hope that Hughes just needed a change of scenery to really unlock that potential.

 

Now the important question, do you think Gardy is going to call him Hughesy, Huey, or just Philly?

[Marta Shearing]

Hughes

had a 5.19 ERA (-0.7 rWAR) this year, 4.85 ERA over the last 3 years. In 2 of the last 3 years, his value has been below replacement level. Why guarantee $24M/3 years to a guy like that, on the slight chance that a change of scene will cure him?

 

Last winter, everyone was so pissed about Correia's $10/2 deal. This year, Ryan is throwing even bigger deals at below-average pitchers, and most everyone seems thrilled to see him spend the money. On guys who are not really GOOD, but NEVER MIND! I don't get it.

I applaud them for finally spending money that in years past has gone in their pockets. The only pitcher better than hughes or nolasco is garza. They're not dumpster diving.

[johnnydakota]

Sources say AJ is next. Who am I going to boo now? My question is…will you still boo AJ even if he is a Twin?

 

Depends how his hitting and defense is....=)

[Marta Shearing]

I never understood why Twins fans booed AJ in the first place. He didn't demand to leave like C. Knoblauch, for instance, he was traded away. The booers just seemed uninformed to me.

They're the same ones booing jeter.