No Offers Yet...

[Brock Beauchamp]

It might have smething to do with decades of Twins offseason history, and/or the fact other teams don't seem to think the offseason starts in mid December.

 

The vast majority of other teams haven't signed anyone significant, either.

 

We go through this every year... Virtually nothing happens before the Winter Meetings. There's no point in getting upset over it. This is how every offseason plays out... If I was a mid-level FA, I wouldn't want to sign before the Winter Meetings unless I had a particular destination in mind. Once the Winter Meetings commence, teams start actively bidding against one another and the chances of getting a player-friendly deal goes up.

 

It's hard to sign a player that won't agree to a deal and the players have very little incentive to agree to a deal in November.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, I just looked it up.

 

According to ESPN, out of 194 free agents, 15 players have signed with a new team so far this offseason.

 

I sure hope the Twins don't miss out on those remaining.... 170 players.

 

Only nine of the top 50 ranked FAs have signed and that's not counting guys like Tanaka.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents

[Otto von Ballpark]

Generating interest isn't the same as taking offers. I think it's reasonable for an agent to try and drum up interesting for his client before he starts taking offers, even if it's a blind bidding process. A team in the early stages might think player A is worth 2/10m but the agent might want to really shop him and build up interest, compare him to better players etc and the agent wouldn't want the original team to have already formed a 2/10m view of his player. I think its probably harder to move a team up if they've already made a valuation of the player.

 

Sorry, I still don't get this at all. I get that a player may not be actively soliciting offers yet, but you can't stop a team from making them -- and even if you could, I'm not sure what benefit that has. A team isn't going to be more likely to agree to 2/15 later just because they don't fax their 2/10 offer today.

 

By the same token, I don't think a lack of formal offers is necessarily a bad thing -- they could be having a dialog with Arroyo about salary and years without a formal offer. Although with the Twins history in the FA market, it would be nice to see some activity rather than find alternate explanations for their customary inactivity. Agreed its still early, though.

[gunnarthor]

Sorry, I still don't get this at all. I get that a player may not be actively soliciting offers yet, but you can't stop a team from making them -- and even if you could, I'm not sure what benefit that has. A team isn't going to be more likely to agree to 2/15 later just because they don't fax their 2/10 offer today.

 

 

I think the agent wants to affect how teams value his player before they bid (like in the Sano example). If a team values a guy at 2/10 before the agent can set up some "facts" - player A is the only pitcher who has thrown 200 ip in 10 seasons, player A is younger and amassed more WAR than Grienke did over the previous 3 seasons, player A is generating a lot of interest in X number of markets - I think it makes it harder for the agent to get that team to move to a 4 year deal or 15/year. That's why not wanting offers isn't the same as not generating interest in his client, as Levatian suggests.

[Alex]

The vast majority of other teams haven't signed anyone significant, either.

 

We go through this every year... Virtually nothing happens before the Winter Meetings. There's no point in getting upset over it. This is how every offseason plays out... If I was a mid-level FA, I wouldn't want to sign before the Winter Meetings unless I had a particular destination in mind. Once the Winter Meetings commence, teams start actively bidding against one another and the chances of getting a player-friendly deal goes up.

 

It's hard to sign a player that won't agree to a deal and the players have very little incentive to agree to a deal in November.

 

I agree that it's a bit early, but I'd love if my favorite team was out in front of and were addressing any of their many needs right away, especially as there are teams that have been doing that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree that it's a bit early, but I'd love if my favorite team was out in front of and were addressing any of their many needs right away, especially as there are teams that have been doing that.

 

Well, their biggest need is pitching and exactly two starting pitchers have signed that the Twins had even the smallest shot of signing (I'm not including Hudson and Johnson, who appeared to know exactly where they wanted to go).

 

Jason Vargas and Dan Haren are off the board. That's it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Okay, I just looked it up.

Considering the Twins, by most accounts, need to add at least 2 quality SP FAs (not to mention other positions), it's a bit more damaging to them each time one signs with another team, as opposed to most teams who may be only looking for one.

 

Also, ESPN ranks Mike Pelfrey as the #50 free agent. Which suggests that the Twins really need two top-50 guys for the rotation. And top-50 guys (9/50) are signing faster than the bottom tiers (6/144), according to your numbers. I don't really care if the Twins have plenty of time to sign guys worse than Pelfrey.

 

There are 17 SP ranked ahead of Pelfrey on that list; 4 have signed. The Twins needed 2 of those 17. It would be a lot more encouraging if they had one signed already, and just needed 1 of the remaining 13. (Especially since a few of those 13 are extremely unlikely -- Burnett, Kuroda, and probably Ervin Santana based on price, Jimenez maybe not due to qualifying offer.)

 

What do you think are the odds the Twins land 2 of the remaining 13? And how much do you think those odds decrease each time one of the remaining pitchers signs with another team?

[Thrylos]

Okay, I just looked it up.

 

According to ESPN, out of 194 free agents, 15 players have signed with a new team so far this offseason.

 

I sure hope the Twins don't miss out on those remaining.... 170 players.

 

Only nine of the top 50 ranked FAs have signed and that's not counting guys like Tanaka.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents

 

Interesting: 15/194 (7.7%) of all free agents signed, but 18% (9) of all top 50 FA signed which makes is 6/144 (4.2%) of the non-top 50 free agents

Which means that top free agents are signed at a rate four and a half times as fast as the regular Joes.

And this actually does not help your argument

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the agent wants to affect how teams value his player before they bid (like in the Sano example). If a team values a guy at 2/10 before the agent can set up some "facts" - player A is the only pitcher who has thrown 200 ip in 10 seasons, player A is younger and amassed more WAR than Grienke did over the previous 3 seasons, player A is generating a lot of interest in X number of markets - I think it makes it harder for the agent to get that team to move to a 4 year deal or 15/year. That's why not wanting offers isn't the same as not generating interest in his client, as Levatian suggests.

 

But teams already have valuation estimates for these players. They're not blind or blank slates until they hear a sales pitch. This is especially true in MLB FA, as opposed to amateur FA like Sano (whose age was questioned until the very end, perhaps beyond).

 

And agents have had years to prepare most of these "facts" for their MLB FA. You think Scott Boras is sorting WAR tables the night before the GM meetings, and heading down to Kinko's after that?

 

To the extent there are persuadable GMs and persuasive agents, those characteristics persist even after an offer has been faxed. I doubt a TR offer today would be met with the response "But you offered too early! We asked you not to do that!"

[MichiganTwins]

Dougie just tweeted that the Twins have made a two year offer to Pelfrey.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dougie just tweeted that the Twins have made a two year offer to Pelfrey.

 

In a word:

 

Ick.

[johnnydakota]

The vast majority of other teams haven't signed anyone significant, either.

 

We go through this every year... Virtually nothing happens before the Winter Meetings. There's no point in getting upset over it. This is how every offseason plays out... If I was a mid-level FA, I wouldn't want to sign before the Winter Meetings unless I had a particular destination in mind. Once the Winter Meetings commence, teams start actively bidding against one another and the chances of getting a player-friendly deal goes up.

 

It's hard to sign a player that won't agree to a deal and the players have very little incentive to agree to a deal in November.

 

So if your kid went sky diving and the vast majority decided to jump without a parachute , you would be ok with letting your kid do the same?

 

The other teams have 2-4 holes to fill while we have 12 or more, so shouldnt we get a jump on the rest of the teams rather then sit back and wait for things to develope?

[edavis0308]

Here's some solid update info from Wolfson again:

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Wolfson_Updating_Twins_offseason_plan_dont_expect_a_move_this_week112613

[jay]

Considering the Twins, by most accounts, need to add at least 2 quality SP FAs (not to mention other positions), it's a bit more damaging to them each time one signs with another team, as opposed to most teams who may be only looking for one.

 

Also, ESPN ranks Mike Pelfrey as the #50 free agent. Which suggests that the Twins really need two top-50 guys for the rotation. And top-50 guys (9/50) are signing faster than the bottom tiers (6/144), according to your numbers. I don't really care if the Twins have plenty of time to sign guys worse than Pelfrey.

 

There are 17 SP ranked ahead of Pelfrey on that list; 4 have signed. The Twins needed 2 of those 17. It would be a lot more encouraging if they had one signed already, and just needed 1 of the remaining 13. (Especially since a few of those 13 are extremely unlikely -- Burnett, Kuroda, and probably Ervin Santana based on price, Jimenez maybe not due to qualifying offer.)

 

What do you think are the odds the Twins land 2 of the remaining 13? And how much do you think those odds decrease each time one of the remaining pitchers signs with another team?

 

They could use 2 from that list, but is that what it would take to think they had a decent (unprecedented, even??) offseason? I would certainly like 2, but I wonder if the expectations are getting a little carried away.

[S.]

Dougie just tweeted that the Twins have made a two year offer to Pelfrey.

http://i40.tinypic.com/205vyo4.gif

[MichiganTwins]

So if your kid went sky diving and the vast majority decided to jump without a parachute , you would be ok with letting your kid do the same?

 

The other teams have 2-4 holes to fill while we have 12 or more, so shouldnt we get a jump on the rest of the teams rather then sit back and wait for things to develope?

 

Good Argument. Much appreciated. I hope you feel proud about your post. However, you do realize that it makes no sense right? Throwing out that story has nothing to do with Brock's post.

 

We all want the Twins to sign someone, but we also realize this is a slow process. A time may come where we can complain about the lack of Twins moves, but it is not in November. Let's see how things work out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So if your kid went sky diving and the vast majority decided to jump without a parachute , you would be ok with letting your kid do the same?

 

*blank stare*

 

Yes.

 

The other teams have 2-4 holes to fill while we have 12 or more, so shouldnt we get a jump on the rest of the teams rather then sit back and wait for things to develope?

 

It'd be great if the Twins had signed six guys already. Except that's not how the offseason works. You can't sign Matt Garza if Matt Garza is fielding offers through the Winter Meetings.

 

Get back to me when the Garzas, Arroyos, and Hughes go off the table. I'll be more than happy to share in your outrage.

[edavis0308]

I actually wouldn't mind Pelf on a two year deal now that he is another year removed from TJ depending on the money/years, but good Lord try to get some strikeouts into the rotation somewhere.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting: 15/194 (7.7%) of all free agents signed, but 18% (9) of all top 50 FA signed which makes is 6/144 (4.2%) of the non-top 50 free agents

Which means that top free agents are signed at a rate four and a half times as fast as the regular Joes.

And this actually does not help your argument

 

You're ignoring that a large percentage of those guys are players that would not sign with the Twins or aren't good fits for the roster.

 

There's no way the Twins were getting, say, Hudson and they weren't going five years on a catcher like McCann.

 

When the players who ARE a good fit start going to other teams, then we have a problem.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I actually wouldn't mind Pelf on a two year deal now that he is another year removed from TJ depending on the money/years, but good Lord try to get some strikeouts into the rotation somewhere.

 

Yeah, it's not the worst idea in the world but I just don't like watching Pelfrey pitch.

 

And for God's sake, a few strikeouts would be nice.

[DaveW]

So if your kid went sky diving and the vast majority decided to jump without a parachute , you would be ok with letting your kid do the same?

 

 

My step kid is a real pain in the ass, I'd let him do it.

[TheLeviathan]

Generating interest isn't the same as taking offers. I think it's reasonable for an agent to try and drum up interesting for his client before he starts taking offers, even if it's a blind bidding process. A team in the early stages might think player A is worth 2/10m but the agent might want to really shop him and build up interest, compare him to better players etc and the agent wouldn't want the original team to have already formed a 2/10m view of his player. I think its probably harder to move a team up if they've already made a valuation of the player.

 

You're trying WAY too hard to defend something that doesn't need defending. As Brock said, most guys haven't signed and most teams probably aren't tossing a lot of offers around. It's ok that the Twins haven't. It's not something to be hung up on yet.

 

But how does it make any sense to deny taking offers? Denying offers surely has no more connection to generating interest than taking offers does. The whole connection you're trying to make is flimsy. Teams have that initial valuation whether they offer or not. It's part of their scouting and offseason preparation. All denying offers does is make sure you A) miss out on being blown out of the water by someone or having nothing to use as leverage when offers do start rolling in. What you're suggesting doesn't make any sense at all and I think you're a bit blind to that by your motivation for posting it.

 

It's ok, the Twins don't need a blind defense here. It's perfectly ok that they haven't bid yet. Even if some of us have a lot of angst about whether they will at all, it's still ok.

[Twins Twerp]

This is funny, we are talking about stuff we literally know nothing about. None of us are agents or GM's. This is why Gleeman has no respect for this site. The whole "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" argument is dumb as we don't know who has offered what or how the whole process works.

[TheLeviathan]

This is funny, we are talking about stuff we literally know nothing about. None of us are agents or GM's. This is why Gleeman has no respect for this site. The whole "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" argument is dumb as we don't know who has offered what or how the whole process works.

 

I think most media reports about team activity are relatively accurate. I'm not sure what value there is in being a complete agnostic about the process. If you're going to limit discourse about baseball only insofar as what any of us are....my guess is most of us should disband this site and open up a forum about beer league softball and save all conversations about professional baseball to those several hundred people that applies to.

 

I guess I've just never found much credence in those arguments.

[nicksaviking]

Dougie just tweeted that the Twins have made a two year offer to Pelfrey.

 

Can a team even offer a two year minor league deal?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Can a team even offer a two year minor league deal?

 

Nick wins the thread.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Jesus Christ. I give up. Pelfrey. Pelfrey. Pelfrey.

[Alex]

This is why Gleeman has no respect for this site.

 

While I like Gleeman and often agree with him, I've never appreciated nor worried his condescension for the site, especially when he spent time in the podcast and tweeting last week about one single poster that complained about the G+G podcast.

 

Also ironically and more to the topic, it's funny you mention it as in this week's he would have fit right in this thread. He essentially said the Twins had no reason not to make better offers to three of the four pitchers Brock mentioned that had signed.

[DaveW]

This is funny, we are talking about stuff we literally know nothing about. None of us are agents or GM's. This is why Gleeman has no respect for this site. The whole "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" argument is dumb as we don't know who has offered what or how the whole process works.

 

Who cares what Gleeman thinks of this forum? He is a solid writer, but isn't the end all be all when it comes to taste or whatever, he isn't a fan of open discussion which is the exact opposite of what this forum is (and what ByTO was prior) also fwiw for someone who dislikes it so much, he apparently visits the site quite a bit and does searches for his name.(a little birdie mentioned this) so I would take any criticism towards this forum from him with a grain of salt.

 

Also leave the lee Harvey Oswald quote out of this!

[johnnydakota]

*blank stare*

 

Yes.

 

 

 

It'd be great if the Twins had signed six guys already. Except that's not how the offseason works. You can't sign Matt Garza if Matt Garza is fielding offers through the Winter Meetings.

 

Get back to me when the Garzas, Arroyos, and Hughes go off the table. I'll be more than happy to share in your outrage.

 

Outrage? me nope, like i posted earlier asking Terry to run out and spend early and fast is like asking a goldfish to climb a tree...but my point is , the Twins need several players, not just a couple of spots to fill.Wouldnt of been a good idea to target the players you want, (who fit in your budget) then jumped right into it, if they refuse then go to plan B, then plan C. So in december you can look at other ways and opptions?