Article: Twins Chasing Top Catcher Jarrod Saltalmacchia?

JP3700 · November 26, 2013

Since I've seen several Fangraphs references, I thought I'd post this article from the site. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-land-mines-of-the-2014-free-agent-class/

I agree that Salty would be fine defensively, but I've seen several posts defending his offense. He's just not a good offensive player. He strikes out 30% of the time, which would be fine if he walked more and/or provided more power.

I understand we have the money to spend, but I'd rather not just throw bad money at average players and say "hey, at least we spent money". Instead of $10M a year on Salty, spend $16-18M a year on Choo.

goulik · November 26, 2013

Pinto is almost but not quite ready, Hermann or Fryer is the defensive replacement, backup, Doumit is a DH emergency 3rd catcher. This means we need a stop gap.

Am I ok with Salty? Yes, keep the contract short. If you're looking stopgap though, you may be looking AJ more than Salty. So the real question isn't really Salty vs Pinto or how good is Salty. The REAL question is 1 yr or someone with potential for more than a year or two as insurance against Pinto flopping. (See Plouffe, Parmalee, Hicks)

When you answer that question, we should examine free agents.

jorgenswest · November 27, 2013

Free Agent Catchers, 2011-2013

[TABLE=class: sortable, width: 60%]
[TR=bgcolor: #50ae26]
[TH=align: left]Player[/TH]
[TH=align: center]PA[/TH]
[TH=align: center]WAR[/TH]
[TH=align: center]Framing RAA[/TH]
[TH=align: center]WAR*[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Brian McCann[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1416[/TD]
[TD=align: center]8.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]64.8[/TD]
[TD=align: center]14.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Jarrod Saltalamacchia[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1304[/TD]
[TD=align: center]7.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]18.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]8.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Mike Napoli[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1427[/TD]
[TD=align: center]11.4[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-27.2[/TD]
[TD=align: center]8.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Jose Molina[/TD]
[TD=align: center]778[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.9[/TD]
[TD=align: center]54.6[/TD]
[TD=align: center]7.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]A.J. Pierzynski[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1549[/TD]
[TD=align: center]6.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-7.9[/TD]
[TD=align: center]5.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Kelly Shoppach[/TD]
[TD=align: center]625[/TD]
[TD=align: center]2.7[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-9.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Chris Snyder[/TD]
[TD=align: center]401[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]14.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Dioner Navarro[/TD]
[TD=align: center]541[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.8[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-6.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Hector Gimenez[/TD]
[TD=align: center]183[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.7[/TD]
[TD=align: center]2.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Jesus Flores[/TD]
[TD=align: center]387[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]3.8[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]John Buck[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1359[/TD]
[TD=align: center]3.9[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-38.2[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Yorvit Torrealba[/TD]
[TD=align: center]833[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.7[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-7.8[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Kurt Suzuki[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1273[/TD]
[TD=align: center]2.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-23.9[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Humberto Quintero[/TD]
[TD=align: center]556[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.2[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-13.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Wil Nieves[/TD]
[TD=align: center]349[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]
[TD=align: center]2.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Ramon Hernandez[/TD]
[TD=align: center]579[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.5[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-19.5[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TD=align: left]Henry Blanco[/TD]
[TD=align: center]329[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.6[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-11.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]
[TD=align: left]Taylor Teagarden[/TD]
[TD=align: center]162[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-2.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.7[/TD]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Ronny Paulino[/TD]
[TD=align: center]312[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.2[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-15.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-1.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Miguel Olivo[/TD]
[TD=align: center]910[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-22.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-2.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #C7D9EC]
[TD=align: left]Koyie Hill[/TD]
[TD=align: center]253[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-1.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-20.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-3.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Thanks. Molina will be back with Rays. McCann is with a Yankees. Salty is the only other guy on this list that would help our young pitchers.

goulik · November 27, 2013

Thanks. Molina will be back with Rays. McCann is with a Yankees. Salty is the only other guy on this list that would help our young pitchers.

Using that set of stats, the guy with the most experience is AJ suggesting he should be in that conversation

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

You cited Pinto's .342 BA and 45% runners thrown-out and said he'll only get better. Neither of those numbers are realistic. I do think he has the potential to be a solid MLBer.

I won't be heartbroken in the least if the Twins don't sign him, I just don't think it's horrible like you're trying to make it out to be. You certainly are not using "fact based models"... sprinkling real, but hand-selected data among opinions doesn't qualify. You keep trying to make this case against him with disingenous data points and subjective opinions.

You do have a point on the consistency issue, but don't act like you know exactly how many games he'll play and exactly what is BA will be (which is about as relevant as RBI, which you've already denounced). We can use the games played argument on pitchers too... and, the Red Sox do reportedly have an offer out to him for 2 years for what is likely a similar AAV. It's the third year that Salty is looking for.

You just did, what you said I did. But really, you took my Pinto line out of context. Leave it in context with the line that Salty will get better. Is there any reason to think Salty would get better was the line. I understand sarcasm and context take some discernment to pick up - so I won't fault you there.

You certainly are not using "fact based models"... sprinkling real, but hand-selected data among opinions doesn't qualify.

Do you have some examples of some 'fact based models'...? Perhaps you have a working definition that should be shared. It's fine to point out someone is wrong, but if you don't teach or show, then what value have you really offered?

Going back to the Pinto comment. In context, I didn't see any evidence, Sabermetrics or whatever, that would suggest Salty would get better than he was in 2013. So I said, "Why not Pinto?" He's a rookie. IF we must play the linear game, play it for both players. Again, context.

Can you provide some sort of statistical analysis to aid his case? How about a simple linear regression model based models and optimization based on similar catchers.

Or going the way of Baseball Prospectus, any idea what the PETOCA might be for Salty for 2014?

I generally find those a bit low...but I guess I'm at a loss. It seems you can just say "Fangraphs" or "Statistic" and that counts as statistics based?

See one problem with most of the statistics cited for Salty is that year-to-year there's very little correlation of consistency. BABIP, OPS+, SLG, etc show very little consistency year to year.

Do you know how lucky Salty was this year? His BABIP was .372. So when he actually got the ball in play (roughly 70% of the time, 30 K%) he did pretty well. But do you know how likely he is to put that up? I mean, without even using Bayes Theorem or some other likelihood of events reoccurring formula.

In 2012, his BABIP was .265. In 2011 it was .304. For 2009 it was .320. But, remember, he doesn't put that ball in play that much. 30% K rate...

Here's a link on K rates , HR rates, and batting average.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-strikeouts-stink/

The problem here is, Salty isn't an OBP guy OR a power hitter.

The most consistent statistic YoY? Contact % at 90%. Following by SwStr%, Swing %, K%, and so forth.

Here's a link for those consistency statistics:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/9/1/2393318/what-hitting-metrics-are-consistent-year-to-year

So Salty swings and misses. A lot. But, he also only plays 120g a year, well only twice (sorry, not a fact based model, just a fact). And by definition, he hasn't had a full season in 7 seasons based on plate appearances (501 needed). I struggle with the idea that someone could give a guy 12.5%+ of your payroll (for an $80M payroll, e.g. Twins) for the next 3 seasons with that kind of production or cost. If he cost 5% of your payroll ($150M total, e.g. Red Sox), sure, it makes more sense in terms of payback ROI.

I do stats for a living. I've taught AP Calculus for years before switching into industry to do analytics. Instead of saying something arbitrary that has no real data points or relevance. Please show me your statistics points versus your opinions and projections on me. This isn't SABR where everything has to be a statistic either. I'm a member, so if you are too, maybe we should take our SQL, Excel, R, and head over there instead?

And then, just acknowledge what did happen. Salty did sit for 4 of the 6 World Series games. I don't know how that's not an important stat. As Herm Edwards said, "You play to win the game!"

Riverbrian · November 27, 2013

Salty did sit for 4 of the 6 World Series games. I don't know how that's not an important stat. As Herm Edwards said, "You play to win the game!"

This point above rings very loud in my opinion. That point and 3 years 30 million don't go well together.

I'll take him... He could help us but I don't really want him.

DaveW · November 27, 2013

You dismiss Salty because of his BABIP, yet state that Pinto should improve on his 2013 numbers without even mentioning his .440 BABIP

Also the 12.5% of payroll is misleading as hell, especially considering the Twins will have a lot of players over the next few years who are impact players and will be making next to nothing: Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Gibson, May, and even Potential DH/maybe C Pinto.

Per the same site you sourced:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/10/15/4818740/how-much-does-a-win-really-cost

A win costs 7 million, even if you dont go by that method, it was widely assumed a win is worth 5 million, which means in order for Salty to be worth it he would need to average 2 WAR a year, which I personally feel he is more than capable of doing as he has been trending in a positive direction each of his last 3 years. If you go by 7 mil, he needs to produce about 1.6 WAR year. Again Steamer has him as a 2.9 WAR player, which makes him a very nice signing for the price.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

Free Agent Catchers, 2011-2013

[TABLE=class: sortable, width: 60%]
[TR=bgcolor: #50ae26]
[TH=align: left]Player[/TH]
[TH=align: center]PA[/TH]
[TH=align: center]WAR[/TH]
[TH=align: center]Framing RAA[/TH]
[TH=align: center]WAR*[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Brian McCann[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1416[/TD]
[TD=align: center]8.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]64.8[/TD]
[TD=align: center]14.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Jarrod Saltalamacchia[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1304[/TD]
[TD=align: center]7.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]18.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]8.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Mike Napoli[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1427[/TD]
[TD=align: center]11.4[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-27.2[/TD]
[TD=align: center]8.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Jose Molina[/TD]
[TD=align: center]778[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.9[/TD]
[TD=align: center]54.6[/TD]
[TD=align: center]7.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]A.J. Pierzynski[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1549[/TD]
[TD=align: center]6.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-7.9[/TD]
[TD=align: center]5.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Kelly Shoppach[/TD]
[TD=align: center]625[/TD]
[TD=align: center]2.7[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-9.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Chris Snyder[/TD]
[TD=align: center]401[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]14.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Dioner Navarro[/TD]
[TD=align: center]541[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.8[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-6.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Hector Gimenez[/TD]
[TD=align: center]183[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.7[/TD]
[TD=align: center]2.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Jesus Flores[/TD]
[TD=align: center]387[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]3.8[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]John Buck[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1359[/TD]
[TD=align: center]3.9[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-38.2[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Yorvit Torrealba[/TD]
[TD=align: center]833[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.7[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-7.8[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Kurt Suzuki[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1273[/TD]
[TD=align: center]2.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-23.9[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Humberto Quintero[/TD]
[TD=align: center]556[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.2[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-13.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Wil Nieves[/TD]
[TD=align: center]349[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]
[TD=align: center]2.3[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Ramon Hernandez[/TD]
[TD=align: center]579[/TD]
[TD=align: center]1.5[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-19.5[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TD=align: left]Henry Blanco[/TD]
[TD=align: center]329[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.6[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-11.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]
[TD=align: left]Taylor Teagarden[/TD]
[TD=align: center]162[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-2.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.7[/TD]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Ronny Paulino[/TD]
[TD=align: center]312[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-0.2[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-15.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-1.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]
[TD=align: left]Miguel Olivo[/TD]
[TD=align: center]910[/TD]
[TD=align: center]0.0[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-22.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-2.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: #C7D9EC]
[TD=align: left]Koyie Hill[/TD]
[TD=align: center]253[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-1.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-20.1[/TD]
[TD=align: center]-3.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

I like it.

Pitch framing is something where a catcher can easily do. I caught through high school. It something a catcher has to cognizant of.

When I pitched I was always a little frustrated when my catcher didn't give me a good target. Same thing when I watch MLB games today.

I'm guessing that most teams don't feel it's that important as it could easily be taught and emulated.

Why isn't Ryan Hanigan on this list? He's easily the best defensive catcher by the eyeball test, CS% (1st), fielding % (1st), and his pitch framing isn't bad either.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

Fangraph columnist:

Who coincidentally, made all the same points I did about Salty.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-land-mines-of-the-2014-free-agent-class/

In a season in which Salty posted a .372 BABIP, he still only managed a .338 on base percentage. That’s kind of amazing, but it highlights how significant Salty’s contact problem really is. Guys who strike out 30% of the time have to either have to hit for a lot of power or draw a lot of walks to be effective offensive players, because the vagaries of BABIP means that their rate of hits on balls in play will fluctuate too much to be dependable. Salty has some power, and he draws some walks, but expecting him to repeat his 117 wRC+ would be foolhardy, as he’s more of a below average hitter than an above average one.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

You dismiss Salty because of his BABIP, yet state that Pinto should improve on his 2013 numbers without even mentioning his .440 BABIP

Well, I quoted Salty in the thing too. It was an "If then" statement. Meaning, if Salty can improve (he had a huge way above his career numbers) then why not Pinto (who also had way above his likely contributions).

DaveW · November 27, 2013

I like it.

Pitch framing is something where a catcher can easily do. I caught through high school. It something a catcher has to cognizant of.

When I pitched I was always a little frustrated when my catcher didn't give me a good target. Same thing when I watch MLB games today.

I'm guessing that most teams don't feel it's that important as it could easily be taught and emulated.

Um....comparing high school baseball to MLB is not relevant to this discussion at all.

If teaching it is so easy, then why is AJ so below average after 15+ years in the majors? He is just a non teachable player? Does he not work hard? What about Napoli? Is he lazy? Stupid? Or maybe does it just come naturally to some people other than others as a skill.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

You dismiss Salty because of his BABIP, yet state that Pinto should improve on his 2013 numbers without even mentioning his .440 BABIP

Also the 12.5% of payroll is misleading as hell, especially considering the Twins will have a lot of players over the next few years who are impact players and will be making next to nothing: Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Gibson, May, and even Potential DH/maybe C Pinto.

Per the same site you sourced:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/10/15/4818740/how-much-does-a-win-really-cost

A win costs 7 million, even if you dont go by that method, it was widely assumed a win is worth 5 million, which means in order for Salty to be worth it he would need to average 2 WAR a year, which I personally feel he is more than capable of doing as he has been trending in a positive direction each of his last 3 years. If you go by 7 mil, he needs to produce about 1.6 WAR year. Again Steamer has him as a 2.9 WAR player, which makes him a very nice signing for the price.

So..for the Twins to make the playoffs...as a wild card. 93 Wins. So 12 WAR? 81-81 means 0 WAR?

So payroll of only $60M is needed to get 12 WAR based on that $5M per WAR formula.

A rookie player cost $500K...they're good for what kind of WAR?

Maybe it's $60M above...average? It would seem the WAR/Millions ratio would be changing year to year...would have to be weighted.

Doesn't correlate...which MLB teams didn't have $60M last year that didn't also win the necessary 93 games to make the playoffs.

Or the Twins...at 66 wins...need 27 more Wins or 27 x 7M added to their payroll to get to the playoffs? $264M team salary to make the playoffs?

As Mark Twain said of statistics, "there's statistics, statistics, and damned lies."

DaveW · November 27, 2013

Well, I quoted Salty in the thing too. It was an "If then" statement. Meaning, if Salty can improve (he had a huge way above his career numbers) then why not Pinto (who also had way above his likely contributions).

When I talk about improving, I am talking about improving on his 2011 and 2012 numbers. Nobody is claiming he is going to hit for .820 moving forward, if that was the case he would be worth a 4/55 contract. Everyone who is for the signing has maintained that even if Salty hits .740 a year moving forward, he is still a prudent signing.

It's really hard to take you serious at this point, you come out firing that Doumit is better than him in every sense of the word (where every advanced stat proves you wrong) you then start claiming you are a master statistician and a SABR member (better than the rest of us or something?) and that you caught in high school and that pitch framing is easy. Frankly you are all over the place and now are just making up other people's arguments.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

The problem with his formula, is he takes into account bad investments, dead contracts, inactive players who weigh the cost (millions) but aren't providing towards the WAR.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

When I talk about improving, I am talking about improving on his 2011 and 2012 numbers. Nobody is claiming he is going to hit for .820 moving forward, if that was the case he would be worth a 4/55 contract. Everyone who is for the signing has maintained that even if Salty hits .740 a year moving forward, he is still a prudent signing.

It's really hard to take you serious at this point, you come out firing that Doumit is better than him in every sense of the word (where every advanced stat proves you wrong) you then start claiming you are a master statistician and a SABR member (better than the rest of us or something?) and that you caught in high school and that pitch framing is easy. Frankly you are all over the place and now are just making up other people's arguments.

Concerning the hitter aspect.

I cited Doumit's AVG/OBP/SLG line versus Salty's.

You cited OPS+, I cited Doumit's as it favored Doumit, every year but 2013. Salty's healthiest year, Doumit's least healthy year.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

When I talk about improving, I am talking about improving on his 2011 and 2012 numbers. Nobody is claiming he is going to hit for .820 moving forward, if that was the case he would be worth a 4/55 contract. Everyone who is for the signing has maintained that even if Salty hits .740 a year moving forward, he is still a prudent signing.

It's really hard to take you serious at this point, you come out firing that Doumit is better than him in every sense of the word (where every advanced stat proves you wrong) you then start claiming you are a master statistician and a SABR member (better than the rest of us or something?) and that you caught in high school and that pitch framing is easy. Frankly you are all over the place and now are just making up other people's arguments.

I was told I did not provide any statistics or facts that were relevant to any argument (As if you all were better than me). I said, this is not SABR...does everything have to be stats based? This is Twinsdaily.

I said, if anyone wanted, we could go over there then.

DaveW · November 27, 2013

So..for the Twins to make the playoffs...as a wild card. 93 Wins. So 12 WAR? 81-81 means 0 WAR?

So payroll of only $60M is needed to get 12 WAR based on that $5M per WAR formula.

A rookie player cost $500K...they're good for what kind of WAR?

Maybe it's $60M above...average? It would seem the WAR/Millions ratio would be changing year to year...would have to be weighted.

Doesn't correlate...which MLB teams didn't have $60M last year that didn't also win the necessary 93 games to make the playoffs.

Or the Twins...at 66 wins...need 27 more Wins or 27 x 7M added to their payroll to get to the playoffs? $264M team salary to make the playoffs?

As Mark Twain said of statistics, "there's statistics, statistics, and damned lies."

I'm not the one who made it up or came up with the methodology, its widely accepted in the SABR community that states the 5 mil per win for when you are dealing with a player in free agency and/or arbitration.

Obviously a younster like Trout who posts a 10 WAR at 500k a year is a very nice thing to have, there is a good chance that in 2015 Buxton, Sano, Meyer will all be 3.5 WAR+ players for a total cost of 1.5 mil.

Guys like Rosario, Arcia, Pinto, Gibson, Dozier, Hicks, May, all have the possibility to give you 2-3 WAR a season at a minimum cost.

Add in some solid FA signings (5 mil per war, 40 mil total a year over the next few years) and you have all the makings of a 90-95 win team.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

When I talk about improving, I am talking about improving on his 2011 and 2012 numbers. Nobody is claiming he is going to hit for .820 moving forward, if that was the case he would be worth a 4/55 contract. Everyone who is for the signing has maintained that even if Salty hits .740 a year moving forward, he is still a prudent signing.

It's really hard to take you serious at this point, you come out firing that Doumit is better than him in every sense of the word (where every advanced stat proves you wrong) you then start claiming you are a master statistician and a SABR member (better than the rest of us or something?) and that you caught in high school and that pitch framing is easy. Frankly you are all over the place and now are just making up other people's arguments.

I suck at playing the piano. I can't sing a note. I couldn't throw a curveball to save my life, still can't. But some things, I was better at.

DaveW · November 27, 2013

Concerning the hitter aspect.

I cited Doumit's AVG/OBP/SLG line versus Salty's.

You cited OPS+, I cited Doumit's as it favored Doumit, every year but 2013. Salty's healthiest year, Doumit's least healthy year.

No you stated that Doumit was better defensively as well.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

I'm not the one who made it up or came up with the methodology, its widely accepted in the SABR community that states the 5 mil per win for when you are dealing with a player in free agency and/or arbitration.

Obviously a younster like Trout who posts a 10 WAR at 500k a year is a very nice thing to have, there is a good chance that in 2015 Buxton, Sano, Meyer will all be 3.5 WAR+ players for a total cost of 1.5 mil.
Guys like Rosario, Arcia, Pinto, Gibson, Dozier, Hicks, May, all have the possibility to give you 2-3 WAR a season at a minimum cost.
Add in some solid FA signings (5 mil per war, 40 mil total a year over the next few years) and you have all the makings of a 90-95 win team.

Yeah. Didn't mean to come off as attributing you as having come up with it.

5M is the average...eh. I'm not sure I buy it as something valuable. Sure, it's an inferred stat, but it doesn't have 100% equivalent ROI. That is, I mean sure, it's an average, but it's not a correlation.

It's like a casino...some winners, some losers, but spending $5M doesn't ensure a win.

I think a bright mind like Theo Epstein (and Terry Ryan) are onto the smart investments...minor leagues...international signings...versus playing the free agent market.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

No you stated that Doumit was better defensively as well.

I stated his CS%, passed balls, and fielding % were better...barely better, but better.

However, as it has been pointed out all of these statistics are irrelevant and non-advanced metrics.

DaveW · November 27, 2013

I think a bright mind like Theo Epstein (and Terry Ryan) are onto the smart investments...minor leagues...international signings...versus playing the free agent market.

Huh?FA Signings by Theo while with the Red Sox

OF Carl Crawford (2010, 7 years, $142 million)

LHP David Wells (2004, 2 years, $8.1 million)

OF J.D. Drew (2007, 5 years, $70 million)

SS Marco Scutaro (2009, 2 years, $12.5 million)

SS Edgar Renteria (2004, 4 years, $40 million)

RHP Matt Clement (2004, 3 years, $25.8 million)

SS Julio Lugo (2006, 4 years, $36 million)

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (2006, 6 years, $52 million plus $51 million posting fee)

RHP Brad Penny (2008, 1 year, $5 million)

RHP John Smoltz (2009, 1 year, $5.5 million)

RHP John Lackey (2009, 5 years, $82.5 million)

OF Mike Cameron (2009, 2 years, $15.5 million)

RHP Bobby Jenks (2010, 2 years, $12 million)

Beltre Ortiz etc

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

No you stated that Doumit was better defensively as well.

I find it sorta...ironic...or perhaps a cause-effect that Salty supposedly is a better pitcher framer...but leads the league in passed balls (favor advanced metric versus passed ball). Seems like he's just keeping his mitt in the strike zone and letting the balls get by as a consequence?

I like the stats about a player at 1B, 2B, and 3B with respect to outs. If a player gets to 2nd or 3rd. I believe you can find this in some of Bill James' abstracts. Goes up something like 20% or so per base relative to the same number of outs. This comes into play with SBs and passed balls.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

Huh?FA Signings by Theo while with the Red Sox

OF Carl Crawford (2010, 7 years, $142 million)
LHP David Wells (2004, 2 years, $8.1 million)
OF J.D. Drew (2007, 5 years, $70 million)
SS Marco Scutaro (2009, 2 years, $12.5 million)
SS Edgar Renteria (2004, 4 years, $40 million)
RHP Matt Clement (2004, 3 years, $25.8 million)
SS Julio Lugo (2006, 4 years, $36 million)
RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (2006, 6 years, $52 million plus $51 million posting fee)
RHP Brad Penny (2008, 1 year, $5 million)
RHP John Smoltz (2009, 1 year, $5.5 million)
RHP John Lackey (2009, 5 years, $82.5 million)
OF Mike Cameron (2009, 2 years, $15.5 million)
RHP Bobby Jenks (2010, 2 years, $12 million)
Beltre Ortiz etc

I think those are some of the exact reasons why he left the Red Sox.

He's with the Cubs since Fall 2011. I don't think he's has many similar signings since with the Cubs.

DaveW · November 27, 2013

Theo is no longer with the Red Sox, he's with the Cubs Fall 2011.

Uh yeah, I realize that. Notice how all of those contracts were FA contracts THEO signed while GM of the Red Sox. You said he doesn't play the FA market or whatever because of his bright mind.

Frankly, the cubs haven't done anything yet under him. Yeah, they built a nice farm system, but as we know as Twins fans, that only goes so far, results are needed.

kab21 · November 27, 2013

Did I say that he'd be a bad hitter? No, I said he'd probably see his numbers dip a bit in TF. Yes, I realize that Fenway isn't particularly kind to right field but given Target Field's layout, Salty's already meager opposite field power would basically vanish.

Is Target Field crushing to lefties? Well, it seemed that way initially but it's hard to say what kind of effect it has on players at this point. It certainly doesn't help left-handed pull hitters, I think we can agree on that much. Morneau was crushed by the park. Arcia hit two more homers on the road in 70 less PAs last season. Doumit gets his power as a lefty pull hitter and has also hit a couple more road homers in marginally fewer PAs in both 2012 and 2013.

Will Target Field crush Saltalamacchia? Unlikely, but it's not unreasonable to expect his overall numbers to decline, either.

And let's not ignore that Salty had a career year in 2013, posting an OPS a full .060 higher than any other point in his career. In general, I hate giving guys multi-year deals at what might be the high point of their career. It's the driving reason why I'm absolutely against signing Ervin Santana as well.

You said plummet and there is absolutely no data that supports your argument. I'm not even sure that Target Field is tougher lefthanded hitters than Fenway.

And I have multiple times said that I would be thrilled with a solid defensive catcher with a .740 for 10M/yr. I have ABSOLUTELY no problems if Salty reverts back to down seasons in Boston.

The biggest problem is that you support none of your arguments with actual data. Baseball-reference shows Morneau's career OPS split at Target Field as .787. Ironically when I look up his overall 2010-2013 OPS (since target field opened) at fangraphs it is exactly .787. I understand that this whole Target Field hurts power hitting lefties but there is very little evidence of that. And the Twins haven't had a true power hitting lefty for a significant amount of time since Target Field opened. Mauer hits to the opposite field. Morneau has sucked since 2011 regardless of where he has played. Doumit is a part time switch hitter and Arcia was a rookie.

twinsfan34 · November 27, 2013

Per Darren Wolfson...today.

--The Twins are maintaining dialogue with free agent catchers, including A.J. Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Boston is seen as stiff competition for Pierzysnki, who was at the general managers' meetings. One Twins source didn't deny that they met with him there. To get Saltalamacchia, who a source says would sign with the Twins, the offer has to be for at least three years. The annual money figures to be in the $9 million to $11 million range.

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Wolfson_Updating_Twins_offseason_plan_dont_expect_a_move_this_week112613

Brock Beauchamp · November 27, 2013

You said plummet and there is absolutely no data that supports your argument. I'm not even sure that Target Field is tougher lefthanded hitters than Fenway.

And I have multiple times said that I would be thrilled with a solid defensive catcher with a .740 for 10M/yr. I have ABSOLUTELY no problems if Salty reverts back to down seasons in Boston.

The biggest problem is that you support none of your arguments with actual data. Baseball-reference shows Morneau's career OPS split at Target Field as .787. Ironically when I look up his overall 2010-2013 OPS (since target field opened) at fangraphs it is exactly .787. I understand that this whole Target Field hurts power hitting lefties but there is very little evidence of that. And the Twins haven't had a true power hitting lefty for a significant amount of time since Target Field opened. Mauer hits to the opposite field. Morneau has sucked since 2011 regardless of where he has played. Doumit is a part time switch hitter and Arcia was a rookie.

If you're going to continue to be so condescending and argumentative, it's a good idea to fact-check your own assertions.

I have not used the word "plummet" once in this thread.

I may have overstated Salty's possible decline but that was more hyperbole than anything else.

Later, this conversation turned toward home runs and yes, I very much used "facts" to assert my points... Like the fact that every Twins lefty (switch or dedicated) with a significant amount of PAs has hit more homers on the road than in Target Field in the past two seasons. Sure, some of those players struggled, were marginal talent, or part-time players... But when you add them all up, that's a hell of a lot of ABs. Several thousand, actually. On the other hand, I have no idea why you think it's important to bring up that Arcia was a rookie. Will he somehow magically change the dimensions of Target Field once he reaches age 25?

And then we get on to Saltalamacchia's 2013 season, which may be an aberration. He posted an OPS .060 higher than his next-best season. His BABIP was through the roof at .372. The dude can't draw a walk to save his life. He hasn't proven any kind of ability to stay healthy. He's all slugging. He literally brings no other skill to the table offensively. But for some reason, pointing out that Target Field hasn't been homer-friendly to left-handed pull hitters not named Jim Thome and I get taken to task for it.

DaveW · November 27, 2013

And then we get on to Saltalamacchia's 2013 season, which may be an aberration. He posted an OPS .060 higher than his next-best season. His BABIP was through the roof at .372. The dude can't draw a walk to save his life. He hasn't proven any kind of ability to stay healthy. He's all slugging. He literally brings no other skill to the table offensively. But for some reason, pointing out that Target Field hasn't been homer-friendly to left-handed pull hitters not named Jim Thome and I get taken to task for it.

Dude, nobody is saying he is going to match his 2013 output offensively, NOBODY. Is. Saying. That. In fact, Kab referenced being happy with his .740 OPS (which is what he did in his "worst" in Boston) I agree.

Target Field IMO might take a home run or two away from Salty potentially (every relevant HR example you point out only has a decrease of one or two HRs in home vs away...Florimon is irrelevant), but most likely those one or two balls turn into doubles anyways, and as Kab pointed out via OPS examples, his overall OPS would not likely take a hit because of the stadium.

The notion that Target Field is some sort of canyon and pitchers park is frankly false. Park factors has TF right in the middle.

Craig in MN · November 27, 2013

So..for the Twins to make the playoffs...as a wild card. 93 Wins. So 12 WAR? 81-81 means 0 WAR?

So payroll of only $60M is needed to get 12 WAR based on that $5M per WAR formula.

81-81 doesn't mean 0 WAR. It is Wins against REPLACEMENT, not AVERAGE. A replacement level team is full of minor league free agents and waiver wire guys and wins 50-some games.

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