Article: Twins Chasing Top Catcher Jarrod Saltalmacchia?

[twinsfan34]

The advanced stats per fangraphs has salty ahead by a huge margin.

 

You put an argument without any backing? No links?

 

I live in Texas. I've seen Salty try to catch and try to hit. It's not pretty.

 

I lived in MN until 2009. I've seen AJ in MN and here. AJ's better.

[twinsfan34]

The thing I can't get past, is in the 6 most important games of the year for the Boston Red Sox, Salty found himself on the short end of the platoon to a 36 year old journeyman catcher.

 

It wasn't for Ross' offense either, he clearly is the inferior hitter. It wasn't because he was hot, he hit .181 for the series.

 

It wasn't to keep the Cardinal runners in check, as they aren't a running team. Only stole 6 bases in 17 games.

 

Short end of the platoon to David Ross...

[twinsfan34]

For the playoffs, Salty struck out 19 times in 32 at bats. While hitting .188 for the playoffs. That's not going to help us get out of the 1st RD of the playoffs if we'd get there.

 

He's just so bad. And for $10M per...?

 

Short end of the platoon to David Ross...

[Linus]

I would not sign him for two reasons:'

 

First, with the trend toward concussion awareness I think it would be wise to steer clear of larger contracts for catchers. Just doesn't make sense to tie up that kind of money for somebody who is going to miss so many games. I love Joe Mauer but always thought that having lots of money tied up in a catcher is risky.

 

Second, Salty isn't very good. I think all this Salty love is frustrated fans wanting change in any form. He's below average defensively and average at the plate. Doumit would put up better numbers at the plate and not be that much worse defensively. If we are going to stink defensively than at least get someone who can swing the bat.

[JP3700]

While Salty is good at receiving, he has a poor arm and doesn't block pitches well. He also had a fluky offensive season and will more likely be a sub .300 OBP guy going forward with that 30% K rate. I would stay away from him.

 

I know this is looking ahead, but the guy I would target is in the 2015 FA class and that's Russell Martin. He's the second best defensive catcher behind Yadier Molina and is league average at the plate. He'll be 32 but I'd still be very aggressive going after him next off-season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ugh. Pick up a pitcher, sign a patchwork catcher, and see what you have in Pinto.

 

It doesn't take much imagination to see Salty and his ugly splits go from "YAY Fenway" to "get me out of Target Field, please" by mid-May.

[johnnydakota]

I'm a cynic about TR's willingness to spend money, but I think you are wrong.....

 

Well Im guessing you are not the 1st one here to think I am wrong, but Im guessing we wont see a 95 million dollar payroll this year, so that gives us a pair of 2nd tier Pitchers, or a catcher for 7-10 , a starter in the 3rd tier Range and maybe enough to find help at 3rd....as for spending money? we still have about half our Internation money left sitting on the table , and a young kid ranked #9 who throws a 95+ mph fastball. So untill contracts are signed its still just smoke to me, and yes sir , I could be wrong

[DaveW]

You put an argument without any backing? No links?

 

I live in Texas. I've seen Salty try to catch and try to hit. It's not pretty.

 

I lived in MN until 2009. I've seen AJ in MN and here. AJ's better.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com

 

Salty is a much different player than he was in Texas, also I don't really care about a small sample size in the playoffs.

[Mike Sixel]

Ugh. Pick up a pitcher, sign a patchwork catcher, and see what you have in Pinto.

 

It doesn't take much imagination to see Salty and his ugly splits go from "YAY Fenway" to "get me out of Target Field, please" by mid-May.

 

Pretty much this. At some point, you have to trust your minors to develop players (though I'd sign an OF also, since I count zero that can hit and field on this roster next year).

[Mike Sixel]

Well Im guessing you are not the 1st one here to think I am wrong, but Im guessing we wont see a 95 million dollar payroll this year, so that gives us a pair of 2nd tier Pitchers, or a catcher for 7-10 , a starter in the 3rd tier Range and maybe enough to find help at 3rd....as for spending money? we still have about half our Internation money left sitting on the table , and a young kid ranked #9 who throws a 95+ mph fastball. So untill contracts are signed its still just smoke to me, and yes sir , I could be wrong

 

johnny....I agree, it is smoke until something changes. I was with you last year, for some reason I believe the smoke this year. Maybe it's the smoke....

[kab21]

Ugh. Pick up a pitcher, sign a patchwork catcher, and see what you have in Pinto.

 

It doesn't take much imagination to see Salty and his ugly splits go from "YAY Fenway" to "get me out of Target Field, please" by mid-May.

 

You should actually check his splits before leaping to conclusions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You should actually check his splits before leaping to conclusions.

 

Uh, I did.

 

2013 LHB OPS: .873

2013 RHB OPS: .628

 

2013 Home OPS: .836

2013 Road OPS: .770

 

That is not a recipe for success in Target Field. He hit 12 of his 14 homers from the left side of the plate and 9 of them came at Fenway. I see a significant drop in those numbers going into Target Field.

[twinsfan34]

www.fangraphs.com

 

Salty is a much different player than he was in Texas, also I don't really care about a small sample size in the playoffs.

 

I use fangraphs all the time...

 

But...I still don't see Salty mentioned anywhere on the page of that link with any sort of positive defensive metric.

 

All the numbers I quote are for his career. His entire sample size.

 

The playoffs were even worse, true, but even his 'entire sample size' (his entire career) is below average at best.

 

He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish.

 

And you don't pay $10M a year to someone who is on the short end of a platoon in the World Series to a guy who's 36...and hits .220.

 

There is no scenario in the world where a guy getting $10M a year sits to that guy.

 

If he's a $4M platoon player...sure. But $10M, you're a starting every game type of player.

[kab21]

Uh, I did.

 

2013 LHB OPS: .873

2013 RHB OPS: .628

 

2013 Home OPS: .836

2013 Road OPS: .770

 

That is not a recipe for success in Target Field. He hit 12 of his 14 homers from the left side of the plate and 9 of them came at Fenway. I see a significant drop in those numbers going into Target Field.

 

Fenway isn't some kind of hitter's paradise for lefties so there probably wouldn't be that much of an effect. His home/road OPS's (3 yrs) don't show a scary split either.

 

Additionally you could look at http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2013_4262&type=hitter

 

10 of his 14 HR's (19 out of 25 in 2012) would have been HR's in 20+ parks in baseball by their estimation. I will take their estimates over your WAG.

 

It seems like most of the arguments against Salty are not actually factually based. We are talking about an easy .700+ catcher that deserves to be behind the plate (Doumit absolutely does not). If somebody prefers A.J. then that's fine but I'm just hoping they bring in somebody and 3/30 won't even make a dent into the available budget to find a starting pitcher or two.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Uh, I did.

 

2013 LHB OPS: .873

2013 RHB OPS: .628

 

2013 Home OPS: .836

2013 Road OPS: .770

 

That is not a recipe for success in Target Field. He hit 12 of his 14 homers from the left side of the plate and 9 of them came at Fenway. I see a significant drop in those numbers going into Target Field.

 

Did Thome's power numbers struggle at Target Field, or are we not allowed to make comparisons to Thome, the lumberjack.

[jay]

I'm a big believer that a guy is at his athletic peak between the ages of 28 - 32.

 

I'm in that range and my body pains would love to tell you it was earlier than that.

[jay]

All the numbers I quote are for his career. His entire sample size.

 

The playoffs were even worse, true, but even his 'entire sample size' (his entire career) is below average at best.

 

He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish.

 

And you don't pay $10M a year to someone who is on the short end of a platoon in the World Series to a guy who's 36...and hits .220.

 

There is no scenario in the world where a guy getting $10M a year sits to that guy.

 

If he's a $4M platoon player...sure. But $10M, you're a starting every game type of player.

 

Dave's argument in favor of Salty has been repeated multiple times as based on his improvements. We all know he wasn't a stud when he hit MLB -- which are your memories of him in Texas. If you don't think it's reasonable for a player to improve, then continue on your war path against Salty.

 

Saying he sucks behind the dish (which most scouts and advanced stats would tell you otherwise) and using anecdotal stories don't erase what he is -- a more certain thing than what we have today and an above average performer at his position (we need more of those).

 

If the alternative is Doumit, I hope you're kidding. If the alternative is Pinto, you're taking a huge chance on an unproven player. If the alternative is some other free agent, okay make that case, but it's mostly a matter of preference.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Dave's argument in favor of Salty has been repeated multiple times as based on his improvements. We all know he wasn't a stud when he hit MLB -- which are your memories of him in Texas. If you don't think it's reasonable for a player to improve, then continue on your war path against Salty.

 

Saying he sucks behind the dish (which most scouts and advanced stats would tell you otherwise) and using anecdotal stories don't erase what he is -- a more certain thing than what we have today and an above average performer at his position (we need more of those).

 

If the alternative is Doumit, I hope you're kidding. If the alternative is Pinto, you're taking a huge chance on an unproven player. If the alternative is some other free agent, okay make that case, but it's mostly a matter of preference.

 

Agreed, i'm not 100% against letting Pinto take the reigns, but that is setting yourself up for a huge let down. This would be eerily similar to the risk of giving the CF job to Hicks last year without a back-up plan. (Although the back-up plan Mastro, got injured).

 

A: Pinto/Herrmann/Fryer/Doumit

B: Pierzynski/Herrmann/Fryer/Doumit - Pinto in AAA

C: Salty/Fryer/Herrmann/Doumit - Pinto in AAA

D: Navarro/Fryer/Herrmann/Doumit - Pinto in AAA

E: Pinto/Fryer/Herrmann/Doumit

 

Pinto needs to catch "everyday" regardless. If they sign a catcher, I would put a lot of money Pinto is in AAA catching everyday. If were going to sign a catcher, wouldn't you rather have it be the best guy? I'd take option C, 10 out of 10 times. Does anyone else see any other way this could go?

 

(BTW, It'd be either Herrmann or Fryer for those jobs, Doumit as the 3rd string catcher.)

[Marta Shearing]

Pinto should make the team and catch 75% of the games. That wouldnt be stunting his growth. There's nothing more for him to prove in the minors.

[DaveW]

I use fangraphs all the time...

 

But...I still don't see Salty mentioned anywhere on the page of that link with any sort of positive defensive metric.

 

All the numbers I quote are for his career. His entire sample size.

 

The playoffs were even worse, true, but even his 'entire sample size' (his entire career) is below average at best.

 

He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish.

 

And you don't pay $10M a year to someone who is on the short end of a platoon in the World Series to a guy who's 36...and hits .220.

 

There is no scenario in the world where a guy getting $10M a year sits to that guy.

 

If he's a $4M platoon player...sure. But $10M, you're a starting every game type of player.

 

They benched him in the playoffs because he made that bone headed throw down to third.

 

And for the last time, I don't care what he did in Texas, he like hundreds of players before him struggled when he was younger, then improved as the years went by. In his last 3 years he has a .763 OPS, which not only is above average overall, its down right very good for a catcher.

 

He also doesn't "suck" behind the dish, if the only thing you are using is fielding percentage (a terrible stat) and caught stealing (a stat that is very dependent on pitchers, which by the way he was only 4% lower than the league average last year) to convince me otherwise, it isn't going to work.

 

As per Fangraphs:

in 2013 Saltys Defensive Value was 7.3 (higher than both AJ and Mauer)

Doumit's was negative 12.9

In 2012 his D value was 5.5 (12th best in the league)

Doumit's was negative 7.9

In 2011 his D value was 4.7 (11th best in the league)

 

 

What does this all tell us? Salty is an above average hitter overall the last 3 years, and for a catcher he hits well. He brings value on the basepaths (2nd most amongst all catchers), he is in the top half of catchers defensively and improving every year. He is 28 and should continue to get better

[twinsfan34]

Dave's argument in favor of Salty has been repeated multiple times as based on his improvements. We all know he wasn't a stud when he hit MLB -- which are your memories of him in Texas. If you don't think it's reasonable for a player to improve, then continue on your war path against Salty.

 

Saying he sucks behind the dish (which most scouts and advanced stats would tell you otherwise) and using anecdotal stories don't erase what he is -- a more certain thing than what we have today and an above average performer at his position (we need more of those).

 

If the alternative is Doumit, I hope you're kidding. If the alternative is Pinto, you're taking a huge chance on an unproven player. If the alternative is some other free agent, okay make that case, but it's mostly a matter of preference.

 

 

When I see the advanced stats...Salty isn't very good.

 

Which advanced stats are you referring to?

 

The Boston Red Sox, the kind of advanced stats, started David Ross over Salty in 4 of the 6 games that mattered most.

 

People say 'advanced stats' but fail to show them. Makes no sense. I give you, Bill James (advanced stats guru) & The World Series Champions, The Boston Red Sox.

[twinsfan34]

They benched him in the playoffs because he made that bone headed throw down to third.

 

And for the last time, I don't care what he did in Texas, he like hundreds of players before him struggled when he was younger, then improved as the years went by. In his last 3 years he has a .763 OPS, which not only is above average overall, its down right very good for a catcher.

 

He also doesn't "suck" behind the dish, if the only thing you are using is fielding percentage (a terrible stat) and caught stealing (a stat that is very dependent on pitchers, which by the way he was only 4% lower than the league average last year) to convince me otherwise, it isn't going to work.

 

As per Fangraphs:

in 2013 Saltys Defensive Value was 7.3 (higher than both AJ and Mauer)

Doumit's was negative 12.9

In 2012 his D value was 5.5 (12th best in the league)

Doumit's was negative 7.9

In 2011 his D value was 4.7 (11th best in the league)

 

 

What does this all tell us? Salty is an above average hitter overall the last 3 years, and for a catcher he hits well. He brings value on the basepaths (2nd most amongst all catchers), he is in the top half of catchers defensively and improving every year. He is 28 and should continue to get better

 

 

Josmil Pinto hit .342 and threw out 45% of base runners in his rookie year.

 

Those are the best numbers in MLB for September (the sample size he was in).

 

Salty has never been the best in any month of any season of his career.

 

Pinto is 1 for 1.

 

And he (Pinto) should continue to get better.

[MichiganTwins]

Pinto should make the team and catch 75% of the games. That wouldnt be stunting his growth. There's nothing more for him to prove in the minors.

He really didnt play that long at AAA (only 75 PA's). He may not have anything left to prove in the minors, but he might need some time there for his development.

[twinsfan34]

They benched him in the playoffs because he made that bone headed throw down to third.

 

And for the last time, I don't care what he did in Texas, he like hundreds of players before him struggled when he was younger, then improved as the years went by. In his last 3 years he has a .763 OPS, which not only is above average overall, its down right very good for a catcher.

 

He also doesn't "suck" behind the dish, if the only thing you are using is fielding percentage (a terrible stat) and caught stealing (a stat that is very dependent on pitchers, which by the way he was only 4% lower than the league average last year) to convince me otherwise, it isn't going to work.

 

As per Fangraphs:

in 2013 Saltys Defensive Value was 7.3 (higher than both AJ and Mauer)

Doumit's was negative 12.9

In 2012 his D value was 5.5 (12th best in the league)

Doumit's was negative 7.9

In 2011 his D value was 4.7 (11th best in the league)

 

 

What does this all tell us? Salty is an above average hitter overall the last 3 years, and for a catcher he hits well. He brings value on the basepaths (2nd most amongst all catchers), he is in the top half of catchers defensively and improving every year. He is 28 and should continue to get better

 

What about passed balls? Are those not the Catcher's fault?

 

He's a league leader or near the top in those...

[DaveW]

Passed balls are a judgement call, and basically are as pointless as errors. Should we dive into his RBI totals next?

[DaveW]

 

Salty has never been the best in any month of any season of his career.

 

Pinto is 1 for 1.

 

........

[DaveW]

Ugh. Pick up a pitcher, sign a patchwork catcher, and see what you have in Pinto.

 

It doesn't take much imagination to see Salty and his ugly splits go from "YAY Fenway" to "get me out of Target Field, please" by mid-May.

 

I think the Twins know what they have in Pinto defensively, there is a reason why he DH'ed half of the time in AA.

 

As kab also showed, your notions about Salty being a Fenway only hitter was incorrect. AJ wouldn't be the worst signing, but he isn't a solution past next year, and he could fall off at any moment as 38 is a tough age for any player, much less a C

[twinscowboysbulls]

Can't we just all agree? We all like Pinto. Most of us have seen September success = April angst. This makes us all hesitant to just hand the job over to Pinto. Wouldn't it be better to have an insurance policy for Pinto? Or if Pinto lights the world on fire, have two good players instead of 1? We have the money. It's clear that defensively Pinto needs some work, minor or major, argue all you want on that subject, but 2014 Salty > 2014 Pinto.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Did Thome's power numbers struggle at Target Field, or are we not allowed to make comparisons to Thome, the lumberjack.

 

There's a huge difference between guys who hit balls that would leave the grand canyon and guys who have "just cleared the fence" power.

 

See Mauer, Joe.

[twinsfan34]

Passed balls are a judgement call, and basically are as pointless as errors. Should we dive into his RBI totals next?

 

Not a big fan of RBI's as an indicator of performance...