Article: Twins Chasing Top Catcher Jarrod Saltalmacchia?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fenway isn't some kind of hitter's paradise for lefties so there probably wouldn't be that much of an effect. His home/road OPS's (3 yrs) don't show a scary split either.

 

Additionally you could look at http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2013_4262&type=hitter

 

10 of his 14 HR's (19 out of 25 in 2012) would have been HR's in 20+ parks in baseball by their estimation. I will take their estimates over your WAG.

 

It seems like most of the arguments against Salty are not actually factually based. We are talking about an easy .700+ catcher that deserves to be behind the plate (Doumit absolutely does not). If somebody prefers A.J. then that's fine but I'm just hoping they bring in somebody and 3/30 won't even make a dent into the available budget to find a starting pitcher or two.

 

I looked at his charts for 2012 and 2013 before posting. Yeah, he hit a few no-doubters, for sure... But there were several "Fenway homers" mixed in as well. The difference between 15 homers and 10 homers is significant, particularly because Target Field will also turn those occasional Green Monster doubles into outs almost every time.

 

Salty is a good catcher. I'm not going to tear my hair out if the Twins sign him. He'll be a plus bat and a huge upgrade over Doumit. I simply don't believe that signing him is the best course of action in 2014. I'm wary of anybody coming out of Fenway, really.

 

On the flip side of that coin, I'll take almost any player who isn't awful at this point.

 

Now that I think about it, the Twins should sign him simply because his name is impossible to spell. It's been awhile since they've had one of those guys.

[DaveW]

There's a huge difference between guys who hit balls that would leave the grand canyon and guys who have "just cleared the fence" power.

 

See Mauer, Joe.

 

Here are Salty's HR's last year

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here are Salty's HR's last year

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]6074[/ATTACH]

 

Again, already did that but I have a question regarding the "true" home run landing spots... Does it attempt to compensate for wind? Because, as we all know, any ball to right in TF has to fight a 30mph wind tunnel to leave the park.

[jay]

Salty is a good catcher. I'm not going to tear my hair out if the Twins sign him. He'll be a plus bat and a huge upgrade over Doumit. I simply don't believe that signing him is the best course of action in 2014. I'm wary of anybody coming out of Fenway, really.

 

That's a fully reasonable argument.

 

Doumit is better in every sense of catching and hitting.

Pinto will be better defensively and offensively than Salty.

He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish.

Josmil Pinto hit .342 and threw out 45% of base runners in his rookie year.

And he (Pinto) should continue to get better.

 

This is not.

[kab21]

I looked at his charts for 2012 and 2013 before posting. Yeah, he hit a few no-doubters, for sure... But there were several "Fenway homers" mixed in as well. The difference between 15 homers and 10 homers is significant, particularly because Target Field will also turn those occasional Green Monster doubles into outs almost every time.

 

Salty is a good catcher. I'm not going to tear my hair out if the Twins sign him. He'll be a plus bat and a huge upgrade over Doumit. I simply don't believe that signing him is the best course of action in 2014. I'm wary of anybody coming out of Fenway, really.

 

On the flip side of that coin, I'll take almost any player who isn't awful at this point.

 

Now that I think about it, the Twins should sign him simply because his name is impossible to spell. It's been awhile since they've had one of those guys.

 

I'm still not sure if you have looked at any charts. Fenway is not friendly to right field. And I'm still favoring hittracker's analysis that 2/3's (or more) would be home runs in 20+ parks in baseball. Overall I think the whole Target Field affect is overblown. It's not a great HR park but the Twins haven't had good LH'd power hitters for awhile. Mauer hits to the opposite field and Morneau hasn't hit well anywhere. Strangely 2 of Salty's shorter HR's (2011 and 2012) were hit to RF at Target Field.

 

If you had any actual facts to back up your argument that Salty would suffer at Target Field then this would be more interesting but all I see are opinions that are weakly supported by actual facts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm still not sure if you have looked at any charts. Fenway is not friendly to right field. And I'm still favoring hittracker's analysis that 2/3's (or more) would be home runs in 20+ parks in baseball. Overall I think the whole Target Field affect is overblown. It's not a great HR park but the Twins haven't had good LH'd power hitters for awhile. Mauer hits to the opposite field and Morneau hasn't hit well anywhere. Strangely 2 of Salty's shorter HR's (2011 and 2012) were hit to RF at Target Field.

 

If you had any actual facts to back up your argument that Salty would suffer at Target Field then this would be more interesting but all I see are opinions that are weakly supported by actual facts.

 

Did I say that he'd be a bad hitter? No, I said he'd probably see his numbers dip a bit in TF. Yes, I realize that Fenway isn't particularly kind to right field but given Target Field's layout, Salty's already meager opposite field power would basically vanish.

 

Is Target Field crushing to lefties? Well, it seemed that way initially but it's hard to say what kind of effect it has on players at this point. It certainly doesn't help left-handed pull hitters, I think we can agree on that much. Morneau was crushed by the park. Arcia hit two more homers on the road in 70 less PAs last season. Doumit gets his power as a lefty pull hitter and has also hit a couple more road homers in marginally fewer PAs in both 2012 and 2013.

 

Will Target Field crush Saltalamacchia? Unlikely, but it's not unreasonable to expect his overall numbers to decline, either.

 

And let's not ignore that Salty had a career year in 2013, posting an OPS a full .060 higher than any other point in his career. In general, I hate giving guys multi-year deals at what might be the high point of their career. It's the driving reason why I'm absolutely against signing Ervin Santana as well.

[Kwak]

The Twins will operate under a budget for 2014--and it won't be anywhere close to $100MM or 52% of revenue or whatever fantasy metric you choose. It won't be more than 2013 (DSP "...we're comfortable with $80-85MM..."), or quite likely less than that. Any dollar spent on a catcher (or any other position player) is money that won't be spent on the critical need of starting pitching.

 

As for those who are concerned with Pinto and the issue of "unproven"? The Twins have been screaming about their #1 ranked MiL system all year. The intent is that these men will be promoted to the Twins and turn the team into consistent winners. All of these MiLers fall into the category of "unproven". So many have posted "...you can't build a team on all free agents...". Well, if you insist on only using "proven" players that's what you would have to do (free agents). Since most are in agreement that the next "winning Twins" team will be built on youth, these men are by definition "unproven". The only way to find the "successful" is to play them! Some will fail. To that I answer "Next".

 

Summing up, NO to Saltalmacchia.

[DaveW]

The Twins will operate under a budget for 2014--and it won't be anywhere close to $100MM or 52% of revenue or whatever fantasy metric you choose. It won't be more than 2013 (DSP "...we're comfortable with $80-85MM..."), or quite likely less than that..

Do you have some information that none of the rest of us have?

[DaveW]

Again, already did that but I have a question regarding the "true" home run landing spots... Does it attempt to compensate for wind? Because, as we all know, any ball to right in TF has to fight a 30mph wind tunnel to leave the park.

That is bollocks and a weak argument "well it gets windy sometimes"

 

In reality. Fenway only had 11 more HR's last year than Target Field and only 17 more in 2012, and that can prob be explained by the fact Boston actually had guys that could hit HR's on their team.

[Kwak]

Do you have some information that none of the rest of us have?

 

He said that just before last season in a televised interview.

[nicksaviking]

I'm still not sure if you have looked at any charts. Fenway is not friendly to right field. And I'm still favoring hittracker's analysis that 2/3's (or more) would be home runs in 20+ parks in baseball. Overall I think the whole Target Field affect is overblown. It's not a great HR park but the Twins haven't had good LH'd power hitters for awhile. Mauer hits to the opposite field and Morneau hasn't hit well anywhere. Strangely 2 of Salty's shorter HR's (2011 and 2012) were hit to RF at Target Field.

 

If you had any actual facts to back up your argument that Salty would suffer at Target Field then this would be more interesting but all I see are opinions that are weakly supported by actual facts.

 

I don't think TF affects flyball hitters as much, the guys with uppercut swings that produce towering HR hitters do just fine like Thome, or the Toronto Blue Jays. But just watching the game, it seems quite clear that the line drive hitters who square up the ball don't get the same results. I don't know how many times it looked like Morneau had a clear HR but it died before it even got to the wall. I'm no geo-thermal-nuclear-physist-meteorologist but it certainly seems like some force hurts balls on a lower trajectory while ignoring balls that get up fast.

 

Aside from Mauer and Morneau, Kubel also had these issues, it could be the players but what if it's the swing? Shouldn't the Twins hedge their bets?

 

Commendably, Saltalamacchia had a career best 28% line drive percentage last year and a career low 38% flyball rate. Both look like outliers until more data is collected, but the Twins (like most clubs) clearly prefer line drive hitters, but the park might not be the most beneficial to these guys, at least from a power perspective.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That is bollocks and a weak argument "well it gets windy sometimes"

 

In reality. Fenway only had 11 more HR's last year than Target Field and only 17 more in 2012, and that can prob be explained by the fact Boston actually had guys that could hit HR's on their team.

 

I don't know why it's bollocks when every single lefty (>200 PAs) on the Twins has hit more road homers in the past two years. Every. Single. One.

 

Mauer, Morneau, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon, Parmelee...

[twinsfan34]

That's a fully reasonable argument.

 

 

 

 

 

This is not.

 

 

So Pinto will not get better...than his rookie year?

 

The argument was Salty would get better after age 28...(which most catchers decline after 29)...

 

Subjective opinions are one thing...fact based models are another. Simply saying something doesn't make it so.

 

Salty plays at most 120g a year, hits .247 on average. Provides average defense. The Twins will spend...you fill in the blank. $80M? So you would be happy to put 12.5% of that (10/80M) towards a guy who hits below .250 on average and plays less than 75% of the games?

 

Nevermind the Red Sox are letting him go at age 28 when $10M to them is like $5M to us. Makes no sense whatsoever. Unless they're signing someone else out there (if so, who?) who is better (they are THE advanced statistics/metics team in MLB)...

 

One season over .255 doesn't constitute any sort of consistency.

[twinsfan34]

The Twins will operate under a budget for 2014--and it won't be anywhere close to $100MM or 52% of revenue or whatever fantasy metric you choose. It won't be more than 2013 (DSP "...we're comfortable with $80-85MM..."), or quite likely less than that. Any dollar spent on a catcher (or any other position player) is money that won't be spent on the critical need of starting pitching.

 

As for those who are concerned with Pinto and the issue of "unproven"? The Twins have been screaming about their #1 ranked MiL system all year. The intent is that these men will be promoted to the Twins and turn the team into consistent winners. All of these MiLers fall into the category of "unproven". So many have posted "...you can't build a team on all free agents...". Well, if you insist on only using "proven" players that's what you would have to do (free agents). Since most are in agreement that the next "winning Twins" team will be built on youth, these men are by definition "unproven". The only way to find the "successful" is to play them! Some will fail. To that I answer "Next".

 

Summing up, NO to Saltalmacchia.

 

Exactly. And by no means would I commit more than 10% of the salary to a sub .250, poor defensive catcher who plays at most 120 g a season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm no geo-thermal-nuclear-physist-meteorologist but it certainly seems like some force hurts balls on a lower trajectory while ignoring balls that get up fast.

 

My point. While thermal dynamics and wind analysis are hardly my specialty, it's not hard to look at that long ramp heading up to right field to see how a wind tunnel effect could be created. If a ball goes high enough and escapes that (hypothetical) flow of air, it might not die on the warning track like we've seen so many times in the past four seasons.

[twinsfan34]

awhile. Mauer hits to the opposite field and Morneau hasn't hit well anywhere. Strangely 2 of Salty's shorter HR's (2011 and 2012) were hit to RF at Target Field.

 

If you had any actual facts to back up your argument that Salty would suffer at Target Field then this would be more interesting but all I see are opinions that are weakly supported by actual facts.

 

Way too small of a sample size.

 

 

I don't know why it's bollocks when every single lefty (>200 PAs) on the Twins has hit more road homers in the past two years. Every. Single. One.

 

Mauer, Morneau, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon, Parmelee...

 

 

A more legitimate sample size.

 

And to those who say...he's only getting better with the Red Sox...consider his K% rates since joining the Red Sox...

 

401 strikeouts in 1329 Plate Appearances. That's 30.2% of the time he strikes out.

 

His strikeout rate before joining the Red Sox? 26.5%.

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

[DaveW]

Last three years OPS+ 104

 

Keep throwing out single stats like strikeouts, or his World Series numbers etc but at the end of the day, 104 ops+ is what Is most telling

[twinsfan34]

Last three years OPS+ 104

 

Keep throwing out single stats like strikeouts, or his World Series numbers etc but at the end of the day, 104 ops+ is what Is most telling

 

 

[TABLE=width: 206]

[/TD]

[TD]Doumit

Salty

Year

OPS+

OPS+

2007

110

90

2008

127

90

2009

88

70

2010

100

69

2011

131

95

2012

114

97

2013

96

118

[/TABLE]

 

 

In all but one year, 2013, Doumit OPS+'d Salty.

 

That is what is most telling(?)

 

Doumit

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml

 

Salty

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

 

As much as you (or anyone) may hate the small numbers, but the fact is they're the variables that factor into the more advanced metrics.

[Brock Beauchamp]

[TABLE=width: 206]

[/TD]

[TD]Doumit

Salty

Year

OPS+

OPS+

2007

110

90

2008

127

90

2009

88

70

2010

100

69

2011

131

95

2012

114

97

2013

96

118

[/TABLE]

 

 

In all but one year, 2013, Doumit OPS+'d Salty.

 

That is what is most telling.

 

Doumit

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml

 

Salty

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

 

In all fairness, Salty is in the middle of his prime years while Doumit is in a decline phase. It's far from a sure thing that 2010-2012 Doumit will ever return.

 

Then again, it's also far from a sure thing that Saltalamacchia will ever reach his 2013 numbers again.

 

But going forward, I think it's a good bet that Salty will outhit Doumit.

[Riverbrian]

30 million for Salty... I don't know...

 

To me its like buying a New Callaway driver above the store price. While your Uncle is customizing a new driver for you that might be ready in a year... And you still have two other drivers in your bag that you blame for not shooting under 80... Ever.

 

Then taking the New Callaway out to the driving range taking a swing and saying "ooh baby" after the ball bounces past the 300 sign.

 

And then watching the guy next to you do the exact same thing with his decade old Korean Wonder that he bought at K-Mart.

 

Ooh Baby

[DaveW]

[TABLE=width: 206]

[/TD]

[TD]Doumit

Salty

Year

OPS+

OPS+

2007

110

90

2008

127

90

2009

88

70

2010

100

69

2011

131

95

2012

114

97

2013

96

118

[/TABLE]

 

 

In all but one year, 2013, Doumit OPS+'d Salty.

 

That is what is most telling.

 

Doumit

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml

 

Salty

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

 

Doumit. Is. Not. A. Legit. Starting. Catcher. This. Comparison. Is. Therefore. Irrelevant.

[DaveW]

So Pinto will not get better...than his rookie year?

 

 

I'd say its pretty likely he isn't going to put up a .960 OPS in 2014.

[DaveW]

[h=3]Free Agent Catchers, 2011-2013[/h] [TABLE=class: sortable, width: 60%]

[TR=bgcolor: #50ae26]

[TH=align: left]Player

[/TH]

[TH=align: center]PA[/TH]

[TH=align: center]WAR[/TH]

[TH=align: center]Framing RAA[/TH]

[TH=align: center]WAR*

[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Brian McCann[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1416[/TD]

[TD=align: center]8.3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]64.8[/TD]

[TD=align: center]14.8[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Jarrod Saltalamacchia[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1304[/TD]

[TD=align: center]7.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]18.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]8.8

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Mike Napoli[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1427[/TD]

[TD=align: center]11.4[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-27.2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]8.7[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Jose Molina[/TD]

[TD=align: center]778[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.9[/TD]

[TD=align: center]54.6[/TD]

[TD=align: center]7.4[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]A.J. Pierzynski[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1549[/TD]

[TD=align: center]6.1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-7.9[/TD]

[TD=align: center]5.3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Kelly Shoppach[/TD]

[TD=align: center]625[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2.7[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-9.3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.8[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Chris Snyder[/TD]

[TD=align: center]401[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]14.3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Dioner Navarro[/TD]

[TD=align: center]541[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.8[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-6.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.2[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Hector Gimenez[/TD]

[TD=align: center]183[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.7[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.9[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Jesus Flores[/TD]

[TD=align: center]387[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.8[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]John Buck[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1359[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.9[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-38.2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Yorvit Torrealba[/TD]

[TD=align: center]833[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.7[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-7.8[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Kurt Suzuki[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1273[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2.3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-23.9[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Humberto Quintero[/TD]

[TD=align: center]556[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-13.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Wil Nieves[/TD]

[TD=align: center]349[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2.3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Ramon Hernandez[/TD]

[TD=align: center]579[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.5[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-19.5[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TD=align: left]Henry Blanco[/TD]

[TD=align: center]329[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.6[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-11.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Taylor Teagarden[/TD]

[TD=align: center]162[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.5[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-2.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.7[/TD]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Ronny Paulino[/TD]

[TD=align: center]312[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-0.2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-15.1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-1.7[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: left]Miguel Olivo[/TD]

[TD=align: center]910[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-22.1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-2.2[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #C7D9EC]

[TD=align: left]Koyie Hill[/TD]

[TD=align: center]253[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-1.1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-20.1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]-3.1[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[nicksaviking]

Last three years OPS+ 104

 

Keep throwing out single stats like strikeouts, or his World Series numbers etc but at the end of the day, 104 ops+ is what Is most telling

 

That's just the fancy way of saying Saltalamacchia had a sub 100 OPS+ two of the last three years.

 

I don't think this stat is very telling. The slugging % is great but like it or not park variables may affect this and we won't know until games are played. The OBP is awful including .288 marks in 2011 and 2012. Park factors almost certainly have zero impact on this. A poor OBP is a much more sure bet than a high SLG.

 

I'd say its pretty likely he isn't going to put up a .960 OPS in 2014.

 

And neither will Saltalamacchia considering only once did he put up a +.750 OPS.

[DaveW]

That's just the fancy way of saying Saltalamacchia had a sub 100 OPS+ two of the last three years.

 

I don't think this stat is very telling. The slugging % is great but like it or not park variables may affect this and we won't know until games are played. The OBP is awful including .288 marks in 2011 and 2012. Park factors almost certainly have zero impact on this. A poor OBP is a much more sure bet than a high SLG.

 

 

 

And neither will Saltalamacchia considering only once did he put up a +.750 OPS.

 

I never said he will put up a .800 OPS every year, however it is a good bet he will at least put up a .740 OPS (I think somewhere around .750-.760 next year personally)

 

And Pinto becomes the perfect catching platoon partner for him.

[Kwak]

A better approach to using WAR is:

 

 

Saltalmacchia WAR

 

Pinto WAR plus added player(s) using that $10MM WAR

 

Compare these values. Add an adjustment for the experience (improvement?) Pinto receives by playing for the Twins.

[twinsfan34]

Doumit. Is. Not. A. Legit. Starting. Catcher...

 

With this, I agree. But Salty isn't much better. He's a worse hitter, for sure. Doumit had some injuries last year. He's actually a decent hitter.

 

The premise was that Salty is definitely not that much better than Doumit or even Pinto or even the value that Pinto could be...for $10M annually. It's too much investment for too little return.

[70charger]

My point. While thermal dynamics and wind analysis are hardly my specialty, it's not hard to look at that long ramp heading up to right field to see how a wind tunnel effect could be created. If a ball goes high enough and escapes that (hypothetical) flow of air, it might not die on the warning track like we've seen so many times in the past four seasons.

 

Well I actually am a geo-thermal-nuclear-physicist-meterologist, and if you look at the delta minus the gamma over the theta, there's a roughly 50% you might be right.

 

Or wrong. I don't actually speak Greek.

 

In any case, I think something is often lost in this dicussion, and that's the comparison. Is Salty a great player? No, not really, and he's not up for a Mauer contract anyway. Of course, talking about whether he's all that good is sort of a moot point if you look at who you're comparing him to. Doumit isn't a catcher; at best he's a DH, bench bat, backup catcher. Fryer isn't a major leaguer now or ever. Pinto really isn't a major leaguer either, but the hope is that he'll become one. Just because he had a September cup of coffee that looked a lot like Chris Parmelee's a few years ago, doesn't mean he's ready.

 

Basically, in each case, I think you're comparing a serviceable-to-above-average major league catcher to a few guys that aren't in his class. The only real question as I see it is which other catchers could match his performance at his price or lower. I don't think Pierzynski is one of them. Who else is there?

[DaveW]

A better approach to using WAR is:

 

 

Saltalmacchia WAR

 

Pinto WAR plus added player(s) using that $10MM WAR

 

Compare these values. Add an adjustment for the experience (improvement?) Pinto receives by playing for the Twins.

Again. That all assumes the Twins are comfortable with Pinto being the main guy behind the plate defensively. The SSS int he majors indicates he had issues, and even more telling was the fact the Twins had him DH over half the time in AA.

[jay]

So Pinto will not get better...than his rookie year?

 

The argument was Salty would get better after age 28...(which most catchers decline after 29)...

 

Subjective opinions are one thing...fact based models are another. Simply saying something doesn't make it so.

 

Salty plays at most 120g a year, hits .247 on average. Provides average defense. The Twins will spend...you fill in the blank. $80M? So you would be happy to put 12.5% of that (10/80M) towards a guy who hits below .250 on average and plays less than 75% of the games?

 

Nevermind the Red Sox are letting him go at age 28 when $10M to them is like $5M to us. Makes no sense whatsoever. Unless they're signing someone else out there (if so, who?) who is better (they are THE advanced statistics/metics team in MLB)...

 

One season over .255 doesn't constitute any sort of consistency.

 

You cited Pinto's .342 BA and 45% runners thrown-out and said he'll only get better. Neither of those numbers are realistic. I do think he has the potential to be a solid MLBer.

 

I won't be heartbroken in the least if the Twins don't sign him, I just don't think it's horrible like you're trying to make it out to be. You certainly are not using "fact based models"... sprinkling real, but hand-selected data among opinions doesn't qualify. You keep trying to make this case against him with disingenous data points and subjective opinions.

 

You do have a point on the consistency issue, but don't act like you know exactly how many games he'll play and exactly what is BA will be (which is about as relevant as RBI, which you've already denounced). We can use the games played argument on pitchers too... and, the Red Sox do reportedly have an offer out to him for 2 years for what is likely a similar AAV. It's the third year that Salty is looking for.