Official 'Twins Aren't Doing Stuff' Thread

[Shane Wahl]

The title of this thread IS "Early Judgment" so I don't get why people want to get upset . . . it is a qualified by the word "early" here.

 

If you actually look at everything:

 

1. TR interview for Handbook (I just shudder every time I think about that)

2. Public statements by TR and others, in general.

3. The talk of Swarzak and Duensing preparing to be starters, potentially.

4. The Welker-for-Johnson swap (absent the rest, it's a smart move . . .)

5. The decision to not protect the top, next in line MR in the system.

6. The signing of yet another aging OF filler at AAA/MLB in Chris Rahl.

7. The love affair with Eric Fryer.

 

8: 1-7 add up to a strange brew (at best) and perhaps the majority of movements to be made this offseason (at worst).

 

Think about it. They now have moved towards filling their rotation with Kris Johnson and perhaps EITHER (not both, right) Swarzak or Duensing. They have added the Clete Thomas replacement (Evan Bigley, Danny Ortiz, etc. aren't more deserving of consideration?) in Chris Rahl. They essentially added a catcher in giving Fryer this two-way contract. That's "significant" movement at SP, backup OF, and C. It wouldn't surprise me if there is one more SP (who the hell knows) added, and one or two roving AAAA reliever types added. And that's it.

 

Too early to judge on the whole, of course. Duh. But I would stop to pause and add up what as already been done and you see that things are starting to fill out here. And it sure as hell isn't good.

[Squirrel]

Nice analogy. To this point, TR is doing the same old song and dance. I realize it is early, people can stop saying that. This is the same old stuff we have heard from TR before, I'm not sure how others are not seeing it. He pretends to have interest in all of the upper tier players(below the top tier) until they are overpriced and signed. Then he has his pick of the litter at the lower tier of FA.

 

I'm truly not being a "negative Nancy" about the Twins or Terry Ryan. I love this team. I'm just speaking the truth at the early stages of this off-season.

 

Rocketpig- tell me what real interest is? TR saying that he likes a player? That we have made contact with agents? They have all said no contracts have been offered from Minnesota. Until there is a legitimate offer, I see no difference in the way we are going about things. Which means we will stay bad until our prospects get here.

 

People are free to say 'It's too early' as you are free to say 'TR hasn't done anything yet.' While I understand the frustrations, and past history of how things have worked, IMO it is too early to have all this angst. And as long as you are going to go out there and be publicly angst-ridden, I, and others, will go out there publicly and say 'It's too early.' It's called discussion of different points of view. When you start a thread, this is what you will get.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nice analogy. To this point, TR is doing the same old song and dance. I realize it is early, people can stop saying that. This is the same old stuff we have heard from TR before, I'm not sure how others are not seeing it. He pretends to have interest in all of the upper tier players(below the top tier) until they are overpriced and signed. Then he has his pick of the litter at the lower tier of FA.

 

I'm truly not being a "negative Nancy" about the Twins or Terry Ryan. I love this team. I'm just speaking the truth at the early stages of this off-season.

 

Rocketpig- tell me what real interest is? TR saying that he likes a player? That we have made contact with agents? They have all said no contracts have been offered from Minnesota. Until there is a legitimate offer, I see no difference in the way we are going about things. Which means we will stay bad until our prospects get here.

 

To me, the difference is that we're hearing reports from outside Minnesota that the Twins are involved in talks with various high-ish profile pitchers. We didn't hear that at all last season. We heard the Twins were in on Correia, who they signed. Near the end of the offseason, we heard them in on Saunders, who they didn't.

 

Basically, we heard a few rumors that they were talking to some pretty mediocre-to-bad pitchers. Hearing that they're communicating with the likes of Kazmir (I think it was Kazmir, maybe I'm wrong there) is promising, though hardly confirmation that they're actually going to sign the guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

On the other hand, we're hearing rumors of real interest by the Twins in some pricey players. We didn't hear that in years past.

 

Is this true? A quick Google yielded this:

 

November 2012: "So far, the Twins have reached out to free agents Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, and Brett Myers."

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/twins-rumors-mccarthy-blanton-dempster-myers.html

 

Obviously not all good names, but:

Sanchez > Nolasco

Dempster == Arroyo

 

Edwin Jackson was also rumored the past two offseasons.

[twinscowboysbulls]

The title of this thread IS "Early Judgment" so I don't get why people want to get upset . . . it is a qualified by the word "early" here.

 

If you actually look at everything:

 

1. TR interview for Handbook (I just shudder every time I think about that)

2. Public statements by TR and others, in general.

3. The talk of Swarzak and Duensing preparing to be starters, potentially.

4. The Welker-for-Johnson swap (absent the rest, it's a smart move . . .)

5. The decision to not protect the top, next in line MR in the system.

6. The signing of yet another aging OF filler at AAA/MLB in Chris Rahl.

7. The love affair with Eric Fryer.

 

8: 1-7 add up to a strange brew (at best) and perhaps the majority of movements to be made this offseason (at worst).

 

Think about it. They now have moved towards filling their rotation with Kris Johnson and perhaps EITHER (not both, right) Swarzak or Duensing. They have added the Clete Thomas replacement (Evan Bigley, Danny Ortiz, etc. aren't more deserving of consideration?) in Chris Rahl. They essentially added a catcher in giving Fryer this two-way contract. That's "significant" movement at SP, backup OF, and C. It wouldn't surprise me if there is one more SP (who the hell knows) added, and one or two roving AAAA reliever types added. And that's it.

 

Too early to judge on the whole, of course. Duh. But I would stop to pause and add up what as already been done and you see that things are starting to fill out here. And it sure as hell isn't good.

 

Basically my sentiment as well, Shane.

[Major League Ready]

The title of this thread IS "Early Judgment" so I don't get why people want to get upset . . . it is a qualified by the word "early" here.

 

Because it does not matter if the thread is entitled "early judgment". That does not in anyway diminish how ill-conceived it is to evaluate the results of an effort / process that has just begun. Would you do this in a professional environment? Not unless you wanted to demonstrate incompetence.

[twinscowboysbulls]

People are free to say 'It's too early' as you are free to say 'TR hasn't done anything yet.' While I understand the frustrations, and past history of how things have worked, IMO it is too early to have all this angst. And as long as you are going to go out there and be publicly angst-ridden, I, and others, will go out there publicly and say 'It's too early.' It's called discussion of different points of view. When you start a thread, this is what you will get.

 

Point taken. I love the discussion and want it! I just don't want the whole basis of arguments against me being that it is early, something I stated already. It's an excuse, that's all it is. Saying that it is early and a lot of things can happen is an excuse. If you go into a bar and order a basket of fries and an hour later you are still waiting for your fries. You might ask your waitress where your fries are, right? Is she going to tell you, well sir, it's only been an hour, can you wait longer? No, she is going to tell you she will find out and get you those fries ASAP.

[twinscowboysbulls]

To me, the difference is that we're hearing reports from outside Minnesota that the Twins are involved in talks with various high-ish profile pitchers. We didn't hear that at all last season. We heard the Twins were in on Correia, who they signed. Near the end of the offseason, we heard them in on Saunders, who they didn't.

 

Basically, we heard a few rumors that they were talking to some pretty mediocre-to-bad pitchers. Hearing that they're communicating with the likes of Kazmir (I think it was Kazmir, maybe I'm wrong there) is promising, though hardly confirmation that they're actually going to sign the guy.

 

I get that. It's been 3 straight years of 90+ losses. They have no other choice but to at least pretend they are going to sign guys. I can't back this up with facts/stats right now, but it seems like there are more quality arms available this off-season than there were last season. Perhaps that is the reason why we are being linked to actual pitching more often this year than previous seasons.

[PseudoSABR]

How many teams have made moves so far? A handful. This is a ludicrously early judgment. Even if these judgments happen to be right, they will be guesses and gut feelings--not hard-won analysis of actual phenomenon or facts.

 

It's just too bad that some fans take every rumor about bullpen arms getting a chance to start, minor acquisitions of minor starters, and other teams signings of near-broken arms to mean that the Twins don't know what there doing, and at the same time, ignore any rumor that suggests the Twins will have a productive offseason. Too many are seething at the mouth to condemn the team they claim to be a fan of based on the thinnest of indicators. I just don't get it.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Because it does not matter entitle the thread early judgment. That does not in anyway diminish how ill-conceived it is to evaluate the results of an effort / process that has just begun. Would you do this in a professional environment? Not unless you wanted to demonstrate incompetence.

 

Listen, the point of this post was to show that early in this offseason, IMO TR is appearing to back off from previous statements about signing some quality piching. Obviously it is early in the FA period. We all get that, to continually state that as the basis of an argument is a waste of everyone's time.

 

FACT: It is early in FA.

FACT: We haven't signed any "quality" pitchers.

FACT: We are tied to players but no contracts have been offered(that we are aware of).

FACT: TR has led us to believe that he intends to give Duensing, Johnson, Swarzak opportunities to be in our rotation in 2014.

FACT: Pitchers have signed with other teams, which now gives us less options.

 

Brock argued that it has worked in the past to wait things out(2010? signing hudson, thome late in offseason) Debating something other than "it is early, just wait and see." This horse is dead.

 

The blessing in disguise is that it is EARLY. There are many FA pitchers we should be making offers to and finding out if we have a chance at getting them, before other teams snatch them up. If that happens then LATER in FA we can get pitchers like Ponson, Ortiz, Pelfrey.

 

Which do you prefer?

[IdahoPilgrim]

Point taken. I love the discussion and want it! I just don't want the whole basis of arguments against me being that it is early, something I stated already. It's an excuse, that's all it is. Saying that it is early and a lot of things can happen is an excuse. If you go into a bar and order a basket of fries and an hour later you are still waiting for your fries. You might ask your waitress where your fries are, right? Is she going to tell you, well sir, it's only been an hour, can you wait longer? No, she is going to tell you she will find out and get you those fries ASAP.

 

Saying it is too early is not an excuse - it is a valid statement that many (including myself) believe is true. When you open a thread for discussion, you don't get to decide up front which rebuttals are valid and which are not.

 

And as far as the french fry analogy, I'll propose this:

 

A person goes to a basketball game, filled with high hopes and expectations. Four minutes into the first quarter the home team is down 8-2 after a slow start. The persons gets disgusted, decides the home team is just not trying and that the game is lost, and walks out. Reasonable?

[PseudoSABR]

When people label opinions and analysis as facts it does not make them any more legitimate.

 

Fact: It is really, really early in FA.

Fact: One team has signed a 'quality' pitcher (Hudson, who is aging and probably not ready for rebuild). (On JJ: Any pitcher on a one year deal can hardly be described as quality).

Fact: TR intends to give anyone capable of eating innings a chance to eat them. The guys you mention aren't being counted on.

Fact: Two starting pitchers have signed.

[twinscowboysbulls]

How many teams have made moves so far? A handful. This is a ludicrously early judgment.

 

It's just too bad that some fans take every rumor about bullpen arms getting a chance to start, minor acquisitions of minor starters, and other teams signings of near-broken arms to mean that the Twins don't know what there doing, and at the same time, ignore any rumor that suggests the Twins will have a productive offseason. Too many are seething at the mouth to condemn the team they claim to be a fan of based on the thinnest of indicators. I just don't get it.

 

I understand your comments. As a fan, yes I do claim to call myself that. I guess if you are able to not look at the past, and only concentrate on this off-season then more power to you. If you truly look at how things have been handled in the past, it is hard to believe things you hear about "promise." Last year we needed starting pitching and we waited til the last minute to get the bottom of the barrel guys. Either that or we got whoever would come here for the cheapest rate.

 

I'm all for the rumors about starting pitchers, as you can look up in my past posts from 2-3 weeks ago. None of those moves have happened though. Yes, it is early. We/I/Everyone is very well aware of this. I understand that the season doesn't start tomorrow and we have until early Spring Training to form our roster. It just appears that we are walking through old footprints. Maybe I read too much into the things Terry Ryan says, maybe I just don't believe anything he says anymore.

 

For what it's worth, I'm understanding the statements made for what they are worth. Terry has stated that he hopes Kris Johnson makes the rotation and that Duensing and Swarzak have been told to prepare to start and relieve. Those three things could mean absolutely nothing, or they could mean everything. It's up for interpretation. I'm interpreting it based on the facts that in the past 3 years, we haven't made the necessary moves to improve our roster(our record proves that), why should we believe that "this is the year."

[nicksaviking]

For a change, I am still optimistic about this offseason. Agents and sports writers both are claiming the Twins have strong interest in top free agent arms. This is unprecedented information under Terry Ryan's management.

 

Still, for those telling others to settle down, there is reason for concern. The trade for Kris Johnson, his presence on the 40-man and the statement that he, Duensing and Swarzak may need to start next year is simply too much of the same troubled and archaic pitching philosophy that continues to lose games for this team.

 

Still, the multiple reports tying the Twins to top arms is a new development and until those guys sign with other clubs I'll give the team the benefit of the doubt, even if only for the sake of not having egg on my face come March.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Saying it is too early is not an excuse - it is a valid statement that many (including myself) believe is true. When you open a thread for discussion, you don't get to decide up front which rebuttals are valid and which are not.

 

And as far as the french fry analogy, I'll propose this:

 

A person goes to a basketball game, filled with high hopes and expectations. Four minutes into the first quarter the home team is down 8-2 after a slow start. The persons gets disgusted, decides the home team is just not trying and that the game is lost, and walks out. Reasonable?

 

Well it all depends. Is the home team's center 6'4" going up against a player that is 7'1"?Is the home team's shooting guard going to Minnesota Duluth and the other team's guard going to Duke? Your analogy made me laugh out loud. We could go back and forth with analogies all morning long. The point is, the Twins haven't done anything yet and until they do, were going to continue to be over-matched, just like your Home team.

[Shane Wahl]

The Twins were associated with pitchers last offseason too. Sanchez was one. I think it went all the way down, aside from Harden, to Saunders. And it was similar (someone posted this in another thread somewhere, by the way) . . . talks and no offers. You aren't serious with anyone until you make an offer.

[twinscowboysbulls]

When people label opinions and analysis as facts it does not make them any more legitimate.

 

Fact: It is really, really early in FA.

Fact: One team has signed a 'quality' pitcher (Hudson, who is aging and probably not ready for rebuild). (On JJ: Any pitcher on a one year deal can hardly be described as quality).

Fact: TR intends to give anyone capable of eating innings a chance to eat them. The guys you mention aren't being counted on.

Fact: Two starting pitchers have signed.

 

1: So we both agree, it is early.

2: For every pitcher that comes off the market, it decreases our chances of signing other pitchers. Agree? (what is better, more pitchers or less pitchers to choose from?)

3: Agreed, they are not counting on them YET.

4: Agreed.

 

When I started this thread, I didn't intend to be the most pessimistic person of all time, I've been made out to be that though. For what it's worth this deep into the thread, my original post was meant to point out that it seems early on that we are not changing our ways. Not to defeat all optimism among fans.

[Shane Wahl]

Is this true? A quick Google yielded this:

 

November 2012: "So far, the Twins have reached out to free agents Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, and Brett Myers."

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/twins-rumors-mccarthy-blanton-dempster-myers.html

 

Obviously not all good names, but:

Sanchez > Nolasco

Dempster == Arroyo

 

Edwin Jackson was also rumored the past two offseasons.

 

Sorry spycake, YOU did it and you did in THIS thread.

[Shane Wahl]

2012 Sanchez, 2013 Garza

2012 Blanton, 2013 Nolasco

2012 Dempster, 2013 Arroyo

 

Pretty damn similar.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Come on man, really? I'm stating that the Twins are in the same shell. Currently i'm correct. I realize were not going to hear about it every time we offer a guy a contract, but when players are flat out saying "The Twins haven't made an offer" I tend to believe that. I expected more, not less from TR. As far as the 16 better pitchers according to your book? Who cares, (No offense, although I've never owned or read it, I've heard positives) how many players were better than Corriea in your book last year? How many of those players did we sign?

 

IMO, when you stink, you need to be a little bit more aggressive than you need to be when you are good. I believe that is why Bill Smith was able to wait it out and sign pretty decent players towards the end of FA, for pretty reasonable dollar amounts.

 

It just appears that we are going to settle into our roots and sign run of the mill guys, again. I hope I can eat Crow Pie on this.

 

You know, the articles I read where the players said that the Twins haven't made an offer also came with a comment that no one has. The free agent market starts moving during winter meetings. That's a fact that has been true with baseball for as long as I can remember it. You won't see much movement until then, especially with the holiday next week.

 

I will be upset if they walk away from winter meetings with nothing, but until then, there's absolutely no reason to get worked up. John is right about that.

[twinscowboysbulls]

You know, the articles I read where the players said that the Twins haven't made an offer also came with a comment that no one has. The free agent market starts moving during winter meetings. That's a fact that has been true with baseball for as long as I can remember it. You won't see much movement until then, especially with the holiday next week.

 

I will be upset if they walk away from winter meetings with nothing, but until then, there's absolutely no reason to get worked up. John is right about that.

 

Who is John?

[JB_Iowa]

 

I will be upset if they walk away from winter meetings with nothing, but until then, there's absolutely no reason to get worked up. John is right about that.

 

Honestly I do feel like I'm hearing a broken record here. I actually agree that its too early but I have a hard time forgetting last season and a lot of optimism around here about what would be spent on starting pitching.

 

While the Twins will not be on my "Thanksgiving Thankfulness" list, there are lots of other things there (including TD). Best to concentrate on them and on having a blessed, joyful Christmas (or whatever you may individually celebrate). There'll be plenty of time in January and later to be depressed -- or pleasantly surprised -- by the Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is this true? A quick Google yielded this:

 

November 2012: "So far, the Twins have reached out to free agents Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, and Brett Myers."

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/twins-rumors-mccarthy-blanton-dempster-myers.html

 

Obviously not all good names, but:

Sanchez > Nolasco

Dempster == Arroyo

 

Edwin Jackson was also rumored the past two offseasons.

 

Earlier in the post, I mentioned "outside Minnesota", which is a pretty important modifier in my opinion. For example, Ken Rosenthal has tweeted about the Twins' interest in Nolasco. Buster Olney has also reported that they're pushing hard for Arroyo.

 

Did that happen in earlier years? It's possible, maybe I just don't remember it... But it's definitely happening this year.

[Shane Wahl]

I am more likely to defend someone making a point in starting a thread then to heap on "quiet down" comments. So, can anyone even remember what happened this time last year? That is, what Twins activity was there before the Winter Meetings last year and was it more, less, or the same as the amount of activity so far this offseason? I ask because I don't really recall.

 

And my issue isn't that the Twins have done nothing . . . because they have done things already! And said things. If they said things encouraging and did things that make sense (Welker for Johnson, then not protecting Achter, then even considering Duensing and Swarzak for the rotation . . . seems quite odd, and just rehashing with a new Clete Thomas . . .) then it would be different. This could all be bet-hedging in case TR fails to get two SP free agents, I think, but I also would not be surprised if the intent now really is to sign one and only one of the mid-tier pitchers out there.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm still encouraged by how publicly involved we have been so far, but I'm deeply disturbed that our recent decisions (and subsequent comments) seem to be taking the quantity over quality approach to starting pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know what to think, so I'm just sitting back and waiting. Not trying to make judgements just yet.

[Shane Wahl]

Who is John?

 

Well, a Geek, for one.

[Major League Ready]

Point taken. I love the discussion and want it! I just don't want the whole basis of arguments against me being that it is early, something I stated already. It's an excuse, that's all it is. Saying that it is early and a lot of things can happen is an excuse. If you go into a bar and order a basket of fries and an hour later you are still waiting for your fries. You might ask your waitress where your fries are, right? Is she going to tell you, well sir, it's only been an hour, can you wait longer? No, she is going to tell you she will find out and get you those fries ASAP.

 

Here is the problem with your argument. An hour to deliver your food would be substantially in excess of what is reasonably expected. In other words, it would be very abnormal. In comparing the FA process, it is very normal that little is done by Nov 21^st regardless of how motivated a team is to sign players. We are not talking about ordering a burger. We are talking about negotiating an 8 figure contracts. Therefore it is not an excuse, it simply is the norm for people engaged in negotiations of this magnitude to take their time, conduct due diligence, and examine a number of options before executing a contract.

 

To use your burger ordering analogy, to complain at this point would be the rough equivalent of complaining to the server after 3 minutes if your burger that takes 6 minutes to prepare is ready.

 

You are not concluding anything here. The relevent information by which to base a conclusion does not yet exist. You are presuming.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fact: TR intends to give anyone capable of eating innings a chance to eat them. The guys you mention aren't being counted on.

 

Fact: the same was said last offseason, yet TR counted on all of those guys. Arguably the same thing was said before 2012, yet TR counted on mostly the same group.

 

Are the circumstances slightly different this year? Yes, but mainly just the year. The burden of proof is definitely on TR to show something different this offseason. (Not that I endorse starting a new thread daily to note his lack of progress so far )

[Otto von Ballpark]

Earlier in the post, I mentioned "outside Minnesota", which is a pretty important modifier in my opinion. For example, Ken Rosenthal has tweeted about the Twins' interest in Nolasco. Buster Olney has also reported that they're pushing hard for Arroyo.

 

Did that happen in earlier years? It's possible, maybe I just don't remember it... But it's definitely happening this year.

 

To me, the important distinction is between reporting actual contact with the player/agent, or just media speculation a team might pursue the player.

 

Last November, it was reported that the Twins contacted a number of players/agents similar to this November. Similarly they were in contact with Edwin Jackson the previous offseason (reported by national sources, I know).

 

Is it different this offseason? Maybe slightly, as a matter of degree. Very hard to tell.