The Three Demotees

[stringer bell]

About August 1st, the Twins sent three young players to Rochester--Chris Parmelee, Aaron Hicks and Eduardo Escobar. Escobar had been one of two backup infielders and after a promising start had slumped horribly. Parmelee had started the season as the regular right fielder and heir apparent to Justin Morneau at first, and Hicks was viewed as a first round draft choice bearing fruit after putting together his best minor league season in 2012. Each was thought to be a lock to be recalled, if they found their swings and after Hicks forfeited enough service time to be under team control for another year.

 

It is now September 6 and we don't know if any or all of the demotees will be back when Rochester finishes their playoff run. Where do these three guys stand in relation to where they were at the start of the year?

 

The one guy who probably improved his standing is Escobar. He finished the Triple A season hitting over .300 and has sprinkled in some extra base pop. Escobar's defense has never been in question and I would project that Eduardo can count on making the 2014 Twins as a three-position infield backup. I would guess that Escobar's floor is backup infielder and his ceiling is "10th regular". I think he is what he is.

 

More on Parm and Hicks later.

[OldTwinky]

Parm needs to visit a sports psychologist. He is just trying way too hard and that doesn't work. Hicks needs to realize that he's a RHB and his career could be saved. He will never hit quality pitching from the left side. He would have to improve more than any hitter I've ever seen and I'm not saying that's impossible but highly improbable.

[stringer bell]

Parmelee has not set Rochester on fire. He's played first and right capably, but his average stayed below .300 without a lot of power. I think Parm will have to win a spot on the Twins next year as a bench player. He's a 1b/RF who won't be guaranteed much playing time unless he hits or someone fails.

 

Hicks also has been less than stellar. He was also injured, but in his limited play, he also hit below .250 with no homers. Next year, I guess Hicks will have to start in Rochester and earn his way back to Minnesota. Hicks still projects to be a major league regular, but the timetable now has a delay. Obviously, Hicks needs to hit better to advance and right behind him is uber-prospect Byron Buxton.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hicks is going to have to beat out Pressley next year, and he's going to start in AAA to begin. I'm fine with that.

 

I'm not sure what's going on with Parm. What he did last year in AAA is ridiculous. I'd have to think he's going to get another shot next season, though I don't know if he's pressing too hard, being too patient, or just cannot catch up to good fastballs.

[Physics Guy]

I am disappointed in how Hicks turned out this year, but not terribly surprised considering how he handled previous promotions. I think by mid-season next year he has earned a spot, but wouldn't be surprised to see him starting for the Twins in spring training. I have to think he needs to play winter ball this year. At least Pressley and Thomas (and maybe Mastro) give us a stopgap until he proves himself. He had better not wait too long as somebody is breathing down his neck in CF.

 

Although I doubt Gardy would incorporate this, I'd like to see a Parmelee/Colabello platoon at 1B. Parmelee could fill in in RF on occasion. Plouffe might be in that discussion as well fairly quickly, depending on Sano.

 

I think Escobar is the utility player of the future, with the chance to replace Florimon if he falls down. I wouldn't mind having Bernier be the backup for the start of the year. He done reasonably well in at all three spots and isn't a liability at the plate. Long term Escobar probably takes that spot.

[stringer bell]

Hicks is going to have to beat out Pressley next year, and he's going to start in AAA to begin. I'm fine with that.

 

I'm not sure what's going on with Parm. What he did last year in AAA is ridiculous. I'd have to think he's going to get another shot next season, though I don't know if he's pressing too hard, being too patient, or just cannot catch up to good fastballs.

I think Parmelee will be out of options. If Mauer is the primary first baseman, he probably will be competing to win a spot on the bench. Gardy gives all his players plenty of at-bats, so if he can hit, he'll get a lot of plate appearances. I thought Parmelee would run with the regular job he was presented this year. He surprised me with his more than acceptable defense in right, but just hasn't hit enough to justify a spot in the lineup.

[stringer bell]

I am disappointed in how Hicks turned out this year, but not terribly surprised considering how he handled previous promotions. I think by mid-season next year he has earned a spot, but wouldn't be surprised to see him starting for the Twins in spring training. I have to think he needs to play winter ball this year. At least Pressley and Thomas (and maybe Mastro) give us a stopgap until he proves himself. He had better not wait too long as somebody is breathing down his neck in CF.

 

Although I doubt Gardy would incorporate this, I'd like to see a Parmelee/Colabello platoon at 1B. Parmelee could fill in in RF on occasion. Plouffe might be in that discussion as well fairly quickly, depending on Sano.

 

I think Escobar is the utility player of the future, with the chance to replace Florimon if he falls down. I wouldn't mind having Bernier be the backup for the start of the year. He done reasonably well in at all three spots and isn't a liability at the plate. Long term Escobar probably takes that spot.

Escobar could be the ideal backup to the three that are regulars this year--he could often replace Florimon vs. lefties, fairly often replace Plouffe against right handers and occasionally give Dozier a day off versus a tough righty. IIRC, Escobar hasn't had a lot of Triple A time and his month plus probably did his hitting some good (he has been raking at Rochester). He spent almost all last year on the Sox bench and didn't play that much for the Twins this year. I am not a fan of 30+ utility infielders who can't hit much and have zero (nadie, nunca, nada) power. Keep Beresford and Bernier in the minors!

[beckmt]

I think Parmelle is done as a Twin. Mauer is our first baseman going forward and we have enough catchers. Hicks will start in AAA, Escobar will be our utility infielder and maybe platoon third base until Sano arrives in mid summer. Herrmann and Doumit will catch and play OF, Pinto should be the main catcher. Doumit might be traded in offseason, but that would be selling low.

[Mike Sixel]

great thread title. And, Escobar is as good as Floriman though younger, right?

 

Hicks, I am not a believer in him as a hitter.

Parms.....is he Chris Davis? I don't think so......but if htey don't sign a legit 1B next year, I put him there and see what happens.

[Kwak]

Hicks will start in Rochester this Spring. Parmelee? A big ? mark. Escobar is the "unfortunate one". He is blocked by Dozier at 2B (Rosario too?); Plouffe has been blessed from above, and will have a job, someplace, though he will hold 3B for Sano; Florimon seems to be annointed also. Escobar will need a strong ST or he will be forgotten. I doubt Ryan can craft a trade bundling Parmelee, an IF, and a P for a sizeable upgrade at any position--but I think it's the best thing for the Twins and those players.

[Physics Guy]

Escobar could be the ideal backup to the three that are regulars this year--he could often replace Florimon vs. lefties, fairly often replace Plouffe against right handers and occasionally give Dozier a day off versus a tough righty. IIRC, Escobar hasn't had a lot of Triple A time and his month plus probably did his hitting some good (he has been raking at Rochester). He spent almost all last year on the Sox bench and didn't play that much for the Twins this year. I am not a fan of 30+ utility infielders who can't hit much and have zero (nadie, nunca, nada) power. Keep Beresford and Bernier in the minors!

 

I don't disagree that ulitimately Escobar is better than Bernier. I just would rather have Bernier ride the pine if Florimon and Dozier play most of the games. Escobar is young enough that I want him playing every day in AAA instead of once or twice a week for the Twins.

[stringer bell]

great thread title. And, Escobar is as good as Floriman though younger, right?

 

Hicks, I am not a believer in him as a hitter.

Parms.....is he Chris Davis? I don't think so......but if htey don't sign a legit 1B next year, I put him there and see what happens.

I don't think Esco has the range that Florimon does. PF probably has a bit more power, but neither Escobar or Florimon made the majors for their hitting. Escobar, to me, profiles as a pretty good utility guy and because of the weaknesses of Plouffe and Florimon could start half the games until Sano is recalled.

[Thegrin]

This is one of the things I enjoy about Twins Daily. We get to 2nd guess the front office while studying the stats of our players.

All 3 could be important parts of the Twins future. Only Escobar has excelled in AAA. I would like to see him brought back and replace Bernier.

I'd like to see Parmalee get significant ABs this September. What I'd like and what the Twins will do are 2 different things, however.

Hicks has failed and I think the Twins will keep him down until he can show us something more. It looks like this is the majority opinion.

[jorgenswest]

Data in a small sample size should not be used in support of performance improvement. None of the three players has near enough data to use SLG, OBP, SLG reliably. Batting average would take nearly two seasons of data before stabilizing.

 

Parmelee and Escobar may have enough plate appearances to onsider their strike out and walk rates. They have surpassed the major league threshold but the higher variability if the minors may push it higher.

 

Parmelee 32k, 22bb, 198 pa

Escobar 37k, 17bb, 188 pa

[Shane Wahl]

It would be pretty embarrassingly stupid to not have all three on the Twins roster on opening day 2014. And two of them (Hicks and Parmelee) starting (unless the pitcher is a lefty, in Parmelee's case). That Alex Presley is considered as the starting CF is completely atrocious.

 

Start Hicks in CF and Parmelee at 1B (assuming an OF of Willingham-Hicks-Arcia) and bat them 5-6 or 6-7 in the order. Let them play, damn it. Filling in the roster with has-beens or never-wills is what the Twins minor league system is for . . .

[Shane Wahl]

Parmelee destroyed AAA last year. And then the Twins decided to mess around with him YET AGAIN this year. Clete, Wilkin, and Alex are somehow more relevant for the Twins future . . .

[Oldgoat_MN]

It would be pretty embarrassingly stupid to not have all three on the Twins roster on opening day 2014. And two of them (Hicks and Parmelee) starting (unless the pitcher is a lefty, in Parmelee's case). That Alex Presley is considered as the starting CF is completely atrocious.

 

Start Hicks in CF and Parmelee at 1B (assuming an OF of Willingham-Hicks-Arcia) and bat them 5-6 or 6-7 in the order. Let them play, damn it. Filling in the roster with has-beens or never-wills is what the Twins minor league system is for . . .

 

Wow Shane - don't know if I could disagree more.

 

Hicks needs to spend some time in AAA hitting the ball. To bring him back ASAP seems likely to only get us what we got at the beginning of this season.

Parmelee at 1B is not going to happen until Colabello stops hitting. That may begin today, but let's see. Also, Parmelee has clearly run into some hitting woes of his own

 

Presley is unlikely to be an all-star CF, but right now I don't see the Twins with a more certain player to put there.

Willingham-Presley-Arcia OF looks to be the OF we start with next season. If other players show that they deserve to move in they will get that chance. For now I don't see it.

[stringer bell]

Parmelee destroyed AAA last year. And then the Twins decided to mess around with him YET AGAIN this year. Clete, Wilkin, and Alex are somehow more relevant for the Twins future . . .

I guess I see Presley as a better version of Clete. He'll probably be an adequate lead off guy, a pretty good defender, and versatile enough to play all three spots if and when Hicks returns. I doubt the Twins give up totally on Chris Parmelee, but I don't think they will hand him a job either. I think he makes the Twins out of ST as a backup 1B/RF and if he hits he sticks, if not he is DFAed and probably ends up with another team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It would be pretty embarrassingly stupid to not have all three on the Twins roster on opening day 2014. And two of them (Hicks and Parmelee) starting (unless the pitcher is a lefty, in Parmelee's case). That Alex Presley is considered as the starting CF is completely atrocious.

 

Start Hicks in CF and Parmelee at 1B (assuming an OF of Willingham-Hicks-Arcia) and bat them 5-6 or 6-7 in the order. Let them play, damn it. Filling in the roster with has-beens or never-wills is what the Twins minor league system is for . . .

 

I'll disagree on Hicks. I think he needs to spend some time in Rochester next year. Presley can keep his spot warm and potentially build up some trade value if he can put it all together. Parmelee needs an open position (and I'd argue that Colabello needs PT too) and I think Escobar can be a the super utility guy. One of Parm and Colabello can turn into that power guy off the bench while I'm hoping the other can turn into an above average regular.

 

I really hope Ryan can find a suitor for Doumit this offseason. Otherwise, whomever is the new manager need to know that Doumit is not going to get nearly as much PT as Pinto, Parm, and Cola all need to use that DH spot from time to time.

[cmb0252]

It amazes me how many people have already written off Hicks. People have been spoiled with great performances by top 10 prospects recently that they expect every prospect to set the world on fire after taking the biggest leap of their career. I have no worries that Hicks can at least become an average CFer, which is pretty valuable, with a ceiling for much more.

[jm3319]

It amazes me how many people have already written off Hicks. People have been spoiled with great performances by top 10 prospects recently that they expect every prospect to set the world on fire after taking the biggest leap of their career. I have no worries that Hicks can at least become an average CFer, which is pretty valuable, with a ceiling for much more.

 

I agree with what you said, but am I missing something here? I have always thought that in a few years our outfield would have Buxton in center, Arcia in Right, and then Hicks would move to left to make room for Buxton. Am I forgetting some other Left field prospect we have? By all means keep Hicks playing CF until Buxton passes him, but if he develops as expected he should be able to cover left just fine, shouldn't he?

[THE DFC]

I'll bluntly say that I think Parmelee's problem is that he's in horrific physical shape. For a professional athlete, the way he maintains himself is a joke. He gets softer and puffier every year, and there's no doubt in my mind that that factor is heavily contributing to his decline.

 

Hicks will be fine. He just needs time to develop still. He's a freak athlete, and something will click with him. It's worth the gamble to give him 2-3 years more of chances, at least.

[THE DFC]

I agree with what you said, but am I missing something here? I have always thought that in a few years our outfield would have Buxton in center, Arcia in Right, and then Hicks would move to left to make room for Buxton. Am I forgetting some other Left field prospect we have? By all means keep Hicks playing CF until Buxton passes him, but if he develops as expected he should be able to cover left just fine, shouldn't he?

 

I think this will be our outfield by the end of next season, but why would Arcia be in RF and Hicks in LF? Hicks is the one with the cannon arm and can cover ground.

[Mr. Brooks]

It amazes me how many people have already written off Hicks. People have been spoiled with great performances by top 10 prospects recently that they expect every prospect to set the world on fire after taking the biggest leap of their career. I have no worries that Hicks can at least become an average CFer, which is pretty valuable, with a ceiling for much more.

 

I don't think that is fair.

Let me start by saying I still think Hicks will be a starting MLB player, but the part I bolded is going quite a ways off the deep end.

I think the people most critical of him would have expected him to struggle, but he went far beyond just struggling. He was so downright awful, that it is understandable to have concerns going forward.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think this will be our outfield by the end of next season, but why would Arcia be in RF and Hicks in LF? Hicks is the one with the cannon arm and can cover ground.

 

To me, that is exactly why Hicks should be in LF. There is much more ground to cover in LF than RF, and LF is going to get nearly 2x the chances as RF (nearly twice as many RH hitters as LH hitters). I want Hicks range in LF, there is nothing wrong with Arcia's arm. How many more runners would get to 3rd on Arcia as opposed to Hicks? Maybe 4 or 5 per season? That is far too infrequent of an event to be worth wasting Hicks range in RF, IMO.

[Willihammer]

To me, that is exactly why Hicks should be in LF. There is much more ground to cover in LF than RF, and LF is going to get nearly 2x the chances as RF (nearly twice as many RH hitters as LH hitters).

 

The angles involved actually cause the opposite - more fly balls to RF than LF due to more RH hitters. Balls hit off the inside of the bat tend to stay on the ground (or leave the park) while balls hit on the outer half will become fly balls.

 

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1708873/FBsByAngle.png

[Mr. Brooks]

The angles involved actually cause the opposite - more fly balls to RF than LF due to more RH hitters. Balls hit off the inside of the bat tend to stay on the ground (or leave the park) while balls hit on the outer half will become fly balls.

 

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1708873/FBsByAngle.png

 

Ok, I stand corrected. I would have suspected that more fly balls would be pulled, interesting stuff.

I think I'd still rather have Hicks range in LF, just because it plays so much bigger at TF, but this certainly makes it a closer argument than I would have originally thought.

[cmb0252]

I don't think that is fair.

Let me start by saying I still think Hicks will be a starting MLB player, but the part I bolded is going quite a ways off the deep end.

I think the people most critical of him would have expected him to struggle, but he went far beyond just struggling. He was so downright awful, that it is understandable to have concerns going forward.

 

I respectfully disagree. What was way off the deep end were the expectations and standards we held Hicks to. Due to injuries, trades, and a hot spring training (which means nothing) Hicks was prematurely rushed to the bigs. Hicks promotion was not only a hot topic around here because of its financial implications but because of Hicks history in the minors. Not only is Hicks a historically slow starter, most switch hitters are, but also a slow developer. After a "massive" 313 plate appearances people are already writing him off.

 

Depending on who's defensive stat you prefer, fangraphs vs baseball reference, Hicks goes from a -.8 WAR to a .6 WAR. Looking at his monthly splits:

 

Mar/April- BA .113, OBP .229, SLG .127, OPS .356, 26/11 K/BB

May- .202, .250, .457, .707, 23/6

June- .280, .308, .400, .708 7/1 (was injured)

July- .230, .292, .379, .671 26/6

 

I see a historically slow start (expected) which was amplified by jumping a level (also expected) before getting injured once he finally starts to find a groove. Yes, he defiantly could have been better. And yes, it was a disappointing year but what were people expecting from Hicks that so many people have already given up on him after ~300 PA?

[Mr. Brooks]

I respectfully disagree. What was way off the deep end were the expectations and standards we held Hicks to. Due to injuries, trades, and a hot spring training (which means nothing) Hicks was prematurely rushed to the bigs. Hicks promotion was not only a hot topic around here because of its financial implications but because of Hicks history in the minors. Not only is Hicks a historically slow starter, most switch hitters are, but also a slow developer. After a "massive" 313 plate appearances people are already writing him off.

 

Depending on who's defensive stat you prefer, fangraphs vs baseball reference, Hicks goes from a -.8 WAR to a .6 WAR. Looking at his monthly splits:

 

Mar/April- BA .113, OBP .229, SLG .127, OPS .356, 26/11 K/BB

May- .202, .250, .457, .707, 23/6

June- .280, .308, .400, .708 7/1 (was injured)

July- .230, .292, .379, .671 26/6

 

I see a historically slow start (expected) which was amplified by jumping a level (also expected) before getting injured once he finally starts to find a groove. What were people expecting from Hicks that so many people have already given up on him after ~300 PA?

 

Nobody should be giving up on him. I agree, that would be absurd.

I'm just saying that it's not fair to pretend there is not cause for concern.

Obviously THIS level of struggling was not expected, because he would not have been given the job, and then sent down if this is what was expected. Clearly the team expected more.

If you want to know what fans expected, that is easy. There is a pretty lengthy thread regarding him during ST. Aside from a couple of extreme opinions (both ways), nobody was expecting superstardom from him.

Most expectations that I recall were for an OPS around .670'ish (total, not cherrypicking) and elite defense.

We saw neither.

[Kwak]

If Buxton develops close to expectations he will move past Hicks on the CF depth chart. A .700 OPS for a premier (if Hicks actually is that good) CF defender might be acceptable--but it isn't for a corner OF. Thus Hicks must improve his hitting considerably or he will be limited to a bench OF. If the Twins don't think he will hit better than that, they should bundle young players and acquire someone that they really do need. If the Twins wait too long on Hicks, the rest of baseball will see him as a failure and he becomes a mere "throw-in" to a larger trade.